BCS predictions/discussion/Knock Em' Off

[osugrad21]

Dispatch

College football
One crazy year

Friday, November 30, 2007 4:36 AM
By Ken Gordon


The Columbus Dispatch

Alex Brandon | Associated Press
Quarterback Matt Flynn ponders what could have been after a loss to Arkansas cost LSU the No. 1 ranking.




It has been suggested that if Ohio State makes it to the national championship game, the Buckeyes will be backing in. But the discussion shouldn't be about backing in, but rather how many teams have backed out.
Excluding current No. 1 Missouri and No. 2 West Virginia, six teams have occupied the top two spots in the Bowl Championship Series standings. All six have lost. On two particularly wild weekends, both the No. 1 and No. 2 teams have fallen.



Cont...

 

[osugrad21]

Dispatch

Michael Arace commentary: If parity is here, a playoff system should soon follow

Friday, November 30, 2007 4:29 AM
By Michael Arace


THE COLUMBUS DISPATCH


Missouri is No. 1 in the Bowl Championship Series standings. Oklahoma is No. 9. They meet in the Big 12 championship game Saturday in San Antonio, and Missouri is a three-point underdog. What a fitting end to the season: The top-ranked team in the land isn't even favored in its conference title game. Southern California, Ohio State and Louisiana State have been rooted out of No. 1 during the course of the season. Boston College, Oregon and Kansas have tumbled from No. 2 in the past month. The national championship picture has never been so muddled.



Cont...

 

[Zurp]

As for changes to the formula next year. I believe a speed factor will be added. All SEC teams will have their score multiplied by 1000 to properly represent the advantage southern speed gives them. USC's score will be calculated by adding .01 to the highest non-USC score. Big ten teams, except Illinois; they now have speed because their coach used to be in the SEC, will have a speed penalty of -100 added to their score. This should result in the proper championship pairing of the best SEC team vs USC for the foreseeable future while keeping unworthy slow Big 10 teams out of the way.

I was just talking to a friend of mine (who happens to be a Michigan fan), and she thinks that uniforms should play a big factor in the BCS formula. I told her that I agree, but that it was funny that she would say so, since Michigan would never again see the BCS top-20, due to losing a billion points because of the ugliest uniforms and color combination ever.

 

[methomps]

And then immediatley embraced the next year when it gave them the results they wanted (USC in the NC game) and left out an undefeated Auburn.

If you apply the same rules in both years you either have 1/2 a NC both times for USC or one NC in 2004.

I didn't realize the AP awarded an NC to Auburn in 2004.

 

[DaddyBigBucks]

I didn't realize the AP awarded an NC to Auburn in 2004.

I think his point is that the AP-itself did not apply the same rules in '04.


It was actually a good idea for the AP to award the Trojans their 1/2 NC. That has a good-sized, albeit primarily fair-weathered, fan base still insisting that they are relevant.

For my part though; they opted out. It was their call to choose to abandon the system rather than work to make it better. They chose a path of diminishing significance. Let them walk it.

 

[methomps]

I think his point is that the AP-itself did not apply the same rules in '04.


It was actually a good idea for the AP to award the Trojans their 1/2 NC. That has a good-sized, albeit primarily fair-weathered, fan base still insisting that they are relevant.

For my part though; they opted out. It was their call to choose to abandon the system rather than work to make it better. They chose a path of diminishing significance. Let them walk it.

What "same rules" did the AP not apply in 04?

 

[osucollegebuck]

This is just a reminder of what a crazy year this has been. Even when we lost to Illinois I realistically thought we had a small chance of getting back into the Nat'l Championship picture as long as we didn't free fall in the ranking. Now compare that to a few years ago when we lost that nail-biter against Texas very early in the season. That loss had a completely different feeling and you just knew the Nat'l Championship hopes were dead. If there was a +1 or +2 system that year, that team would have made some serious noise, just ask Notre Dame.

 

[Jaxbuck]

What "same rules" did the AP not apply in 04?

-In 2003 the team they wanted (USC) for the BCS title game did not qualify so they split from the BCS and named their own champ.

-In 2004 they had a chance to do the same thing for an even more deserving team and decided not to split from the BCS and name their own champ because the team they wanted (USC) was in the BCS title game.

The same situation arose two years in a row and they chose to handle it differently for two different teams.

 

[utgrad73]

Mark May picked WV over his Alma mater Pitt. So did Lou. Now they are cursed. I WOULD LOVE TO SEE PITT KICK WV ASSES. Stopping Pat White will be the key.

 

[methomps]

-In 2003 the team they wanted (USC) for the BCS title game did not qualify so they split from the BCS and named their own champ.

-In 2004 they had a chance to do the same thing for an even more deserving team and decided not to split from the BCS and name their own champ because the team they wanted (USC) was in the BCS title game.

The same situation arose two years in a row and they chose to handle it differently for two different teams.

It wasn't the same situation. In 2003, they voted USC #1 in their final regular season poll. They did this with no idea that USC wouldn't be going to the BCS NC game. USC won in the Rose Bowl and the AP voters kept them at #1. In 2004, they voted Auburn #3 in their final regular season poll. Their #1 team (USC) won, and they kept that team #1.

 

[osucollegebuck]

Mark May picked WV over his Alma mater Pitt. So did Lou. Now they are cursed. I WOULD LOVE TO SEE PITT KICK WV ASSES. Stopping Pat White will be the key.

I love your optimism but this game is going to get ugly fast. The only chance Pitt would have had was if they played on that quick sand they called a football field in Pittsburgh on Monday Night.

 

[PlanetFrnd]

vintage song poon for our older posters

That appears to be of Desert Storm vintage, well done... I wonder if any of these fine ladies would have taken the time to teach a wet-behind-the-ears 6th grader a thing or two back then...

I don't care about the odds or the spreads, I'm glued to the TV tomorrow watching the Panthers, the Sooners, the Vols, and, hell, the Bruins unleash hell.

 

[buckeyemania11]

Mark May picked WV over his Alma mater Pitt. So did Lou. Now they are cursed. I WOULD LOVE TO SEE PITT KICK WV ASSES. Stopping Pat White will be the key.

Holtz is giving Pitt his pep talk this week, maybe he can instill some sort of super motivation into them

 

[utgrad73]

toledoblade.com -- Ohio State fans should be wary

Ohio State fans should be wary

Ohio State football fans hope one of two things happens this weekend - either Oklahoma beats Missouri or Pitt upsets West Virginia.

(Actually, they'd better hope the Oklahoma thing comes true because I have a better chance of waking up skinny and good-looking than Pitt has of beating the Mountaineers.)

Anyway, if Missouri loses then the Buckeyes figure to be back in the BCS national championship game.

I would caution OSU fans on two fronts.

1. Be careful of what you wish.

2. Don't expect to be warmly embraced and welcomed back by fans in the other 49 states, any of the Canadian provinces except, perhaps, Labrador, and any country ending in "slavia."

If you think the BCS works, how can Missouri be both No. 1 and an underdog at a neutral site against No. 9 Oklahoma?

Missouri, West Virginia and Ohio State are all one-loss teams. And they're ranked 1-2-3. Who is better?

If we don't have a playoff then what? Does the "flawed" BCS give us what we need? Maybe we should leave it up to Holtz, May and others. Wins and losses mean nothing, I guess. Without the ESPN influence (they do get paid to say those things), we all know that if Holtz had his way he'd pick Notre Dame to go the NC game. Mark May would pick Pitt and Lisa Salters would pich the team that gave her the best on field interview.

Is a BCS poll without all the media spin or possibly a playoff series the answer? I would watch three or 4 more college football games after the regular season ended and I'll bet a few million other fans would too. The networks would come out ahead, the conferences play others in a tiered elimination, and even May and Holtz win as they have more bullshit to project to all the football nuts out there in TV land.

A fair and balanced playoff needs to be instituted to silence all the "experts" and give the Hawaiis, Boise States, and App States a shot at the big prize. Until then we have to read and view how good the 10 and 2 teams are why they are "better" than those that are undefeated or at best one loss teams.

No ink wasted here, just maybe a few kilobytes of data. Go Sooners (this week anyway)

 

[Buckeyeskickbuttocks]

If you think the BCS works, how can Missouri be both No. 1 and an underdog at a neutral site against No. 9 Oklahoma?

Because Odds aren't a predictor, they are meant to level out action, which of course, is driven by the human element - who is perceived as being better.