Alright so I worked this up on another site, and thought I'd share it with you all in this thread, it's my take on what every team in the top 9 needs to happen for them to be able to get to New Orleans:
Neither Kansas or Hawaii will win out. If these teams do it will be the end of college football as we know it. This year has been absolutely ridiculous they way it's panned out, and I for one am not counting anyone in the top 9 out from still getting a shot at the National Championship. There are too many important games still left to be played to think that LSU and Oregon is a done deal:
#1 LSU
11/17 @ Ole Miss
11/23 Arkansas
SEC Championship vs. probably Georgia
*Arkansas and the SEC Championship vs. the Bulldogs are still two pretty tough roadblocks left for LSU, and I'm still not convinced that LSU's defense is the best out there yet, as they have given up roughly 26 points per game in their previous 5 games. It will be interesting how they handle McFadden (a heisman favorite) and the talented freshman Knowshon Moreno of Georgia if they were to play the Bulldogs for the SEC Championship. There's a good chance the Tigers win out, however, just ask them that question again back on 10/13 when they became the first #1 team to stumble this year. Will they be prone to doing it again now that they're back on top of college football?
#2 Oregon
11/15 @ Arizona
11/24 @ UCLA
12/01 Oregon State
*Nothing too difficult left for the Ducks, as it seems they have the easiest road left to New Orleans, however, I think we should all be well aware by now that upsets are just around the corner and that trip to Pasadena could spell trouble, but if it doesn't then the Beavers might have something to say about Oregon's post season game location... like perhaps just a return trip to Pasadena instead of a trip to the Big Easy. Also, UCLA has been known as the Jekyl and Hyde team of the Pac 10 as they've managed to defeat California and also give Notre Dame they're only win of the season.
#3 Oklahoma
11/17 @ Texas Tech
11/24 Oklahoma State
Big 12 Championship vs. Kansas/Missouri
*Pretty dangerous road ahead still for the young Sooners who fell victim of the upset bug earlier this year to lowly Colorado, but I could definitely seem them dropping the game in Lubbock or possibly even their rivalry game to Okie State, but I definitely see the Big 12 teams possibly eliminating each other from contention for the National Championship. Explanation for that follows below.
#4 Kansas
11/17 Iowa State
11/24 Missouri
Big 12 Championship vs. Oklahoma
*Rough schedule left for the surprising Jayhawks, and I tend to believe their magical season ends here. Iowa State is a probable to undoubted win as the 3-8 Cyclones have pretty much rolled over and died against every opponent they've faced this season, but then again they did beat Colorado who stunned mighty Oklahoma earlier this year, so yes theres a chance, but I for one believed Oklahoma State stood a better chance at upsetting Kansas than does Iowa State. However, Missouri is a probable loss for Kansas, so that would eliminate them from contention with 1 loss, as the voters did not even look too kindly enough upon them in this weeks standings as they kept them idle at #4 and moved LSU, Oregon, and Oklahoma ahead of them. Also if they were to somehow remain unscathed at 12-0 going into the Big 12 Championship, I'm rather positive they would lose to Oklahoma.
#5 West Virginia
11/17 @ #22 Cincinnati
11/24 @ #24 Connecticut
12/01 Pittsburgh
*Two troublesome road games against top 25 teams probably spells disaster for the injury plagued Moutaineers. Cincinnati is likely the team to beat West Virginia, however, all 3 could potentially pull the upset. UConn is having quite the year themselves if not at the expense of the blindest (word?) referee of all time, but none the less are a 2 loss team and host the Mountaineers at their place. Finally, Pittsburgh isn't quite the greatest team left on their schedule, however, they did pull the upset on Cincinnati earlier in the year.
#6 Missouri
11/17 @ Kansas State
11/24 @ #4 Kansas
Big 12 Championship vs. Oklahoma
*Just like they're Big 12 counterparts, Kansas and Oklahoma, Missouri has a rough path to follow to New Orleans. Also, just like Oregon they must face the Jekyl and Hyde team of their conference, Kansas State in Manhattan, Kansas. The Wildcats may not seem like a worthy opponent as they are coming off an embarrassing 31-73 loss to the troubled Cornhuskers, but they still pulled off the upset earlier in the year against the then #7 ranked Texas Longhorns in Austin! So if Kansas State is not enough for Missouri to handle, then maybe the surprising Jayhawks have some magical spells left in them that they could conjure up to possibly upset the Tigers. However, in all likelihood, the Big 12 Championship vs. the Sooners, who already beat the Tigers this year in Norman, is the place where Missouri will suffer its crushing second loss and eliminate them from any title hopes this year.
#7 Ohio State
11/17 @ #21 Michigan
*While the Buckeyes are being counted out the most at being able to still reach New Orleans, they might be the team that benefits the most from the possible slip-ups higher up in the rankings. As the Buckeyes have already concluded 90% of their schedule, all that remains for them is the game of all rivalries, the Ohio State vs. Michigan battle in Ann Arbor. The Wolverines have undoubtedly had the biggest letdown this season as they were easily one of the early favorites for one of the two spots in the National Championship game this year. Yet, after crushing back-to-back defeats at the hands of Appalachian State and Oregon in the Big House to begin their season, Michigan never really looked the same. On top of the two early losses, Michigan has also landed their third loss last week against Wisconsin, so morale isn't too high for the Wolverines. Additionally the upset bug hasn't been the only thing bothering Michigan this year, as they have also been bitten by the injury bug quite alot this season. Key players Chad Henne, Mike Hart, and Mario Manningham have all suffered injuries this year, most notably Henne, which has resulted in the Wovlerines having to rely on an inexperienced freshman quarterback to carry them to the finish line this season. Can Henne/Hart stop the Buckeyes on 11/17 and save the Michigan program from suffering it's 4th loss of the season and they're 4th career loss to the Buckeyes?
#8 Georgia
11/17 #23 Kentucky
11/24 @ Georgia Tech
SEC Championship vs. LSU
*While the Bulldogs remain the only 2 loss team still in contention for a birth in the National Championship game, they would need pretty much every scenario above to happen for them to even have a shot. However, they do control their own destiny and strength of schedule might just be enough for them to leap frog certain teams ranked higher than them. Yet, like everyone else they do have a bumpy road left in front of them, as Kentucky already notably defeated LSU earlier this year, and the Yellow Jackets have given the Bulldogs trouble lately. Georgia is 3-0 in the past 3 years against Georgia Tech, however they only have a combined 16 point margin of victory against them in those 3 games (15-12 in 2006, 14-7 in 2005, and 19-13 in 2004). Finally, they would still have to face the Tigers in the SEC Championship game if they were to win out.
#9 Arizona State
11/22 #11 USC
12/01 Arizona
*The Sun Devils escaped joining Boston College last night at being eliminated from National Title hopes as they barely escaped Pasadena with a 24-20 victory over the Bruins. However, they are still a 1 loss team, but they are staring 2 losses in the face when the Trojans come to Tempe in two Thursdays. Also, like Georgia they probably need every scenario above to occur for them to be able to jump into at least the #2 spot, because the Bulldogs with 2 losses are already deemed as the better team by the voters, but a win against USC might just be enough for their strength of schedule. However, the Wildcats of Arizona might just be the last team to pull an upset before this crazy regular season comes to an end.
Well my novel is over and hopefully the rest of this seasons games will be as entertaining as the 11 weeks that led up to this point have been.
