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BCS predictions/discussion/Knock Em' Off

Here is my take on Boston College:

72nd best Run Offense. 10th best Pass Offense. 20th best Offense (Total Yards).

That indicates a major lack of balance on offense.

Ohio State is scoring 35.7 points per game. Boston College is scoring 34.6. Ohio State has a 46.2% third down conversion rate. Boston College has a 45.2% third down conversation rate. Boston College has a 32:28 TOP/G. Ohio State has a 31:39 TOP/G.

The BC defense averages 17.7 points per game and 300.9 yards on defense. tOSU allows 6.6 points per game and 211.9 yards per game.

Boston College has allowed 1940 passing yards, the 9th worst total out of any team in the BCS. Duke allows less passing yards per game than Boston College. DUKE! By contrast, the Buckeyes have the 7th best pass defense. BC is allowing 277.1 PYPG. OSU is allowing 149.0 PYPG.

Ohio State has allowed 47 passing first downs. That is 11th best in the nation. Boston College has allowed 84 passing first downs. That is the 13th worst amount in the nation.

They are, however, #1 in the nation in rush defense. They are allowing 46.4 rushing yards per game. By contrast, the Buckeyes are allowing 62.9 rushing yards per game (3rd best), which was raised by some crazy 5'3" running back.

Ohio State has allowed 38 rushing first downs. That is tied for 18th best in the nation. Boston College has allowed 29 rushing first downs. That is tied for 4th in the nation.

In total, the Eagles have allowed 113 first downs. The Buckeyes have allowed 85 first downs.

Touchdowns given up: Ohio State - 4 (1 rushing). Boston College - 12 (Including 4 given up by their scary rush defense).

Boston College leads the nation in interceptions with 19. They are tied for 5th in interception returns for touchdowns with 3. Ohio State has 8 interceptions and 1 interception return for a touchdown. Keep in mind that 3 and outs result in less chances to pick off passes. :osu:

Now, let's talk special teams.

Boston College has an average of 41.0 yards per punt. Ohio State has an average of 40.5 yards per punt.

The biggest difference between the two teams is the punt return abilities of Ohio State. Ohio State has 33 punt returns for 345 yards. Boston College has 6 punt returns for 33 yards.

Now, my big question is...how does Boston College only have 6 punt returns in 7 games? They must either let teams into a position where they want to go for it on 4th down (1st down rush for 0 yards, 2nd down rush for 1 yard, 3rd down pass for 8 yards, 4th down rush for no yards?), or they must not be confident in their punt return game.

Ohio State averages 18.4 yards per kickoff return. Boston College averages 22.5 yards per kickoff return.

Anyway, as for strength of schedule, you can no longer complain, in this case, that Ohio State has not faced any tough teams yet. Ohio State's schedule is the 58th toughest in the nation, so far (5 straight 5-2 teams is apparently ranked as the 3rd toughest finish? What I've heard...). Boston College has the 72nd toughest.

Oh, and btw, in terms of strength of schedule, the team with the toughest schedule in the Big Ten, thus far, is Illinois (24th). They are followed closely by TSUN at 25th.

Sources:

NCAA Football Polls - CBSSports.com
NCAA Football - Statistics - Yahoo! Sports
 
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It seems to me BC tries to be a ball control team. On offense they only do what is necessary to get first downs. On defense they try to stuff the run and surrender some short passes so they can capitalize on punishing deep attempts. I dont think they have any real dangerous threats at receiver and the running backs are inconsistent. I think any defense that can force a few consecutive 3 and outs on Ryan can wear out the BC Defense and run up the score on them. Pressure on Ryan is the key. He's thrown some ugly gimme balls under pressure.
 
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Anyone telling the world how awful OSU's schedule is has no business even discussing the merits of Boston College.

BC's run ends in Blacksburg on Thursday. At this rate, not only will there be no other (:biggrin:) major unbeaten teams by the end of the year, there may not be any teams from a BCS conference with less than two losses. I for one am enjoying the carnage.
 
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daveeb;964439; said:
Boston College has allowed 1940 passing yards, the 9th worst total out of any team in the BCS. Duke allows less passing yards per game than Boston College. DUKE! By contrast, the Buckeyes have the 7th best pass defense. BC is allowing 277.1 PYPG. OSU is allowing 149.0 PYPG.
To be fair, there's absolutely no reason to throw the ball against Duke after halftime :wink2: Teams aren't exactly trying to mount fourth-quarter comebacks against them.

I do expect Boston College to meet the end of their run in Blacksburg though. But one caveat - VT isn't actually that good either. Excellent defense, but they're missing Vince Hall. And the offense is putrid - 113th in the country and last in the ACC in YPG. So if the game were in Boston, I'd actually pick BC. I think Tech wins, but I wouldn't bet the house on it, because there's a reason Matt Ryan's a Heisman hopeful and Sean Glennon was benched.
 
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HailToMichigan;964841; said:
To be fair, there's absolutely no reason to throw the ball against Duke after halftime :wink2: Teams aren't exactly trying to mount fourth-quarter comebacks against them.

Please explain.
fitzgerald.jpg
 
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daveeb;964860; said:
Jeez, Mark May just never lets up in his Buckeye bashing. At least he didn't bring up Boston College...
What if he did bring up BC?

Right now they are the presumptive number 2 team in the nation.

May has never really shown the Buckeyes great love and was very vocal in the dark days around 2004. I'd just pigeon-hole him under douche bag used car salesman - it makes his pronouncements far more ordinary.
 
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Taosman;964875; said:
If the BCS formula says your #2 or #1, your not presumptive.
Taos - BC isn't thus rated in the BCS till after they play their game this weekend. Should they lose at VT no dice. Should they win and Ohio State take care of business vs. the Spartans then they retain their presumptive #2 BCS ranking.

Right now they are #3 in the BCS standings.

So yes, they are presumptive - by definition.
 
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