Game Thread BCS National Championship Game: tOSU 24, LSU 38 (final)

[GeauxTigers99]

Saw a post in a different thread about Strength of Schedule, it made me want to look into the numbers a little bit. These are the opponents for each school, their overall ranks in Offense & Defense, and their win/loss records. Some of the numbers suprised me.

LSU

Opponent----------Total Offense----------Total Defense----------Win/Loss

Miss St. -----------112--------------------29--------------------7-5
Virginia Tech-------99---------------------5t---------------------11-2
Middle Tenn. St. ---95----------------------81--------------------5-7
So. Carolina --------77---------------------56--------------------6-6
Tulane--------------60---------------------89--------------------4-8
Florida--------------13---------------------33---------------------9-3
Kentucky------------25--------------------65---------------------7-5
Auburn--------------101--------------------8----------------------8-4
Alabama-------------75---------------------28---------------------6-6
Louisiana Tech-------87---------------------93---------------------5-7
Ole Miss--------------92--------------------90---------------------3-9
Arkansas--------------15--------------------45---------------------8-4
Tennessee-------------55th------------------73rd-------------------9-4

AVERAGE/TOTAL----------69--------------------53--------------------88-70

OHIO STATE

Youngstown St----------N/A-------------------N/A------------------N/A
Akron-------------------111--------------------75-------------------4-8
Washington------------- 61 --------------------102 -----------------4-9
Northwestern------------31---------------------77-------------------6-6
Minnesota---------------49---------------------119------------------1-11
Purdue-------------------36--------------------60-------------------8-5
Kent St.------------------81--------------------61------------------3-9
Michigan St.--------------33--------------------40------------------7-6
Penn St.-----------------56---------------------9-------------------8-4
Wisconsin----------------45---------------------36------------------9-3
Illinois-------------------35---------------------41-------------------9-3
Michigan-----------------74---------------------24------------------8-4

AVERAGE/TOTAL------------55---------------------58------------------67-68


By going off of these numbers, combined w/ each team's respective Offensive/Defensive stats, it shows that Ohio State's defense put up better numbers throughout the year, while going against better offense's. At the same time it shows that LSU's offense put up better numbers this season, while going against tougher defense's (not by much though). Of course this doesn't account for each opponents schedule, which led to their rankings.

 

[NFBuck]

One thing that should be mentioned is that more than likely tOSU's total offensive numbers are skewed because of JT's tendency to lay off the gas when he gets a lead. Several of tOSU's wins were blowouts, whereas LSU was in several shootout/close gamess, including two 3OT games that skewed their numbers.

 

[krazeyk]

Just for kicks I did a quick stat comparison between the two teams. I only included stats that are unaffected by OT games and number of games played since these were unequal for the two teams. I included the Sagarin Predictor of which Jeff Sagarin is quoted as saying is "the best single Predictor of future games"
Looking at the stats the teams look pretty equal, But it does seem that Ohio State has a slight edge over LSU. You may discount that somewhat given LSU more difficult strength of schedule (however, given the range of SOS in Div 1 there is not a huge difference in SOS).

Offensive Stat..............OSU.......LSU
YPC...............................4.61......5.06
Yds/Pass Att.................7.76......7.18
Comp %........................64.36.....57.11
Pass Rating.................147.77....131.51

Defensive Stat............OSU.......LSU
YPC..............................2.45......3.09
Comp %.......................51.98.....46.35
Yds/Pass Att................4.69......5.53

Misc Stat.....................OSU.......LSU
Penalty YPG.................40.92.....64.92
TO Marg/Game............1.38......0.17
Sagarin SOS Rank.........44........26 (of 242 Div 1 teams)
Sagarin SOS Rating*....70.25.....74.88 (higher is harder)
Sagarin Predictor..........93.47.....87.83
Sagarin Home Advantage=2.59

*Range of (29.73, 78.91) for 242 Div 1 Teams

Using the Sagarin Predictor
*Giving LSU Home Field Advantage Points
*Formula: OSU-(LSU+HomeAdv)=Predicted Scoring Margin
93.47-(87.83+2.59)=3.05
Therefore, a predicted victory of Ohio State by 3.05 points over LSU.
My call: The Bucks win 24 to 21

nice look at the game but if you did that with last years game I wonder what the % error would have been. Intagibles esp in the NC game are a key if not deciding factor which would completly skew the prediction. Again it is a nice look and I hope it's the truth but if it is near that score it will be pure luck.

 

[Sportsbuck28]

Everybody can analyze the statistics all they want before a national championship game... but then come the opening kickoff, they are thrown out the window because it's all about who wants it more.

 

[NastyDogg72]

Saw a post in a different thread about Strength of Schedule, it made me want to look into the numbers a little bit. These are the opponents for each school, their overall ranks in Offense & Defense, and their win/loss records. Some of the numbers suprised me.

LSU

Opponent----------Total Offense----------Total Defense----------Win/Loss

Miss St. -----------112--------------------29--------------------7-5
Virginia Tech-------99---------------------5t---------------------11-2
Middle Tenn. St. ---95----------------------81--------------------5-7
So. Carolina --------77---------------------56--------------------6-6
Tulane--------------60---------------------89--------------------4-8
Florida--------------13---------------------33---------------------9-3
Kentucky------------25--------------------65---------------------7-5
Auburn--------------101--------------------8----------------------8-4
Alabama-------------75---------------------28---------------------6-6
Louisiana Tech-------87---------------------93---------------------5-7
Ole Miss--------------92--------------------90---------------------3-9
Arkansas--------------15--------------------45---------------------8-4
Tennessee-------------55th------------------73rd-------------------9-4

AVERAGE/TOTAL----------69--------------------53--------------------88-70

OHIO STATE

Youngstown St----------N/A-------------------N/A------------------N/A
Akron-------------------111--------------------75-------------------4-8
Washington------------- 61 --------------------102 -----------------4-9
Northwestern------------31---------------------77-------------------6-6
Minnesota---------------49---------------------119------------------1-11
Purdue-------------------36--------------------60-------------------8-5
Kent St.------------------81--------------------61------------------3-9
Michigan St.--------------33--------------------40------------------7-6
Penn St.-----------------56---------------------9-------------------8-4
Wisconsin----------------45---------------------36------------------9-3
Illinois-------------------35---------------------41-------------------9-3
Michigan-----------------74---------------------24------------------8-4

AVERAGE/TOTAL------------55---------------------58------------------67-68


By going off of these numbers, combined w/ each team's respective Offensive/Defensive stats, it shows that Ohio State's defense put up better numbers throughout the year, while going against better offense's. At the same time it shows that LSU's offense put up better numbers this season, while going against tougher defense's (not by much though). Of course this doesn't account for each opponents schedule, which led to their rankings.

Very interesting stats, it really points out how much Minnesota is hurting our SOS as well. To me it just shows what most of us have been saying in that these are two pretty evenly matched teams and this should be a great game. Isn't it amazing that a bunch of huge fans of each of the schools can see this while the media does nothing but babble on about speed, time off and other usless garbage.

 

[DaddyBigBucks]

One thing that should be mentioned is that more than likely tOSU's total offensive numbers are skewed because of JT's tendency to lay off the gas when he gets a lead. Several of tOSU's wins were blowouts, whereas LSU was in several shootout/close gamess, including two 3OT games that skewed their numbers.

The preview that will be posted on BP's front page will have a statistics section that takes Tressel-Ball into consideration. It will show that OSU is very effective at scoring when they believe that scoring is necessary.

The preview should be posted within the next few days.

 

[Gatorubet]

The preview that will be posted on BP's front page will have a statistics section that takes Tressel-Ball into consideration. It will show that OSU is very effective at scoring when they believe that scoring is necessary.

The preview should be posted within the next few days.

I'd like to hear more about when OSU thinks scoring isn't necessary.

 

[Deety]

I'd like to hear more about when OSU thinks scoring isn't necessary.

I'd like to hear more about whether Gatorubet thinks posting is necessary.

 

[DaddyBigBucks]

I'd like to hear more about when OSU thinks scoring isn't necessary.

When OSU is leading and the defense is dominating, Tressel treats scoring like a luxury. If the offense can move the ball while buttoned-up, fine. If not, forget about it.

In the first half vs. Texas last year, Ohio State passed 10 times on first down. In the second half, forget about it. We had a lead, the defense was dominating.

That's just one example, and it deals only with run vs. pass on first down. There are numerous other aspects to Tressel-Ball and buttoning up the offense.

 

[Gatorubet]

When OSU is leading and the defense is dominating, Tressel treats scoring like a luxury. If the offense can move the ball while buttoned-up, fine. If not, forget about it.

In the first half vs. Texas last year, Ohio State passed 10 times on first down. In the second half, forget about it. We had a lead, the defense was dominating.

That's just one example, and it deals only with run vs. pass on first down. There are numerous other aspects to Tressel-Ball and buttoning up the offense.

Interesting. That is not Meyer Ball. But then, this year we had a non-dominating defense, and had to score boat loads of points to stay in it.

 

[Jaxbuck]

Interesting. That is not Meyer Ball. But then, this year we had a non-dominating defense, and had to score boat loads of points to stay in it.

Tressel ball starts and ends with his faith in his defense to bottle the other team up. Watching some of the atrocious play calling so far this Bowl season I am shocked that more people don't get the simple concept of "punt, play D and make them beat you, don't help them with a TO."

 

[Gatorubet]

Tressel ball starts and ends with his faith in his defense to bottle the other team up. Watching some of the atrocious play calling so far this Bowl season I am shocked that more people don't get the simple concept of "punt, play D and make them beat you, don't help them with a TO."

You didn't see our pass D much this year then Jax...

the horror.......the horrror......

 

[Jaxbuck]

You didn't see our pass D much this year then Jax...

the horror.......the horrror......

I saw it a lot actually

I honestly think Major Wright is going to be a major stud. Its was just a youth issue imo. I'd still be concerned about scUM's offense if they are healthy and have their heads screwed on straight if I were (perish the thought) a Gator fan.

 

[Nutriaitch]

I think the midfield logo would make a pretty sick helmet.

Anyone here worth a shit at photoshopping want to give it a try? I'd like to see that. Most of my LSU gear has that eye on it.

 

[Deety]

Anyone here worth a shit at photoshopping want to give it a try? I'd like to see that. Most of my LSU gear has that eye on it.

Boy oh boy, did you ever quote the right guy for that job. :)