Trojans survive scare as bowls picture clears up
By Brad Edwards
Special to ESPN.com
At one point in the wee hours of Sunday morning, spirits must have been quite high in many parts of Pennsylvania, Louisiana and Virginia.
Miami had already been upset by Georgia Tech, meaning either Penn State, LSU or Virginia Tech would be playing for the BCS title if either USC or Texas happened to lose one of its final two games. When Fresno State took a fourth-quarter lead on USC, the scenario that had seemed so improbable just a day earlier was on the verge of playing out.
But then reality struck in the form of a pass to Reggie Bush, a touchdown by LenDale White and an interception by Darnell Bing. Just like that, the opportunity for either USC or Texas to stumble was diminished to three games -- the Trojans against UCLA on Dec. 3, and the Longhorns at Texas A&M on Nov. 25 and versus either Colorado or Iowa State for the Big 12 championship on Dec. 3.
Given that UCLA will carry the nation's No. 103 defense into that game against the nation's No. 1 offense, and given that Texas has beaten its last two opponents (which both have the same win total as Texas A&M this season) by a combined score of 128-14, the odds do not favor the one-loss teams. But that's all they have left to hang their hopes on.
So, which team is in best position to capitalize if a shocking upset takes place? Let's start with the clubhouse leader, Penn State.
The Nittany Lions will be ranked third in this week's BCS Standings, but they will also be occupying sofas while the Tigers and Hokies play their final regular-season games this weekend and, assuming victories, their respective conference championship games next weekend. Both teams trail Penn State in the computer ratings, and it is unlikely either would be able to catch the Lions in that part of the formula. Games against 5-5 North Carolina (Va. Tech) and 4-6 Arkansas (LSU) certainly won't help that cause.
But if Florida State (at Florida) and Georgia (at Georgia Tech) can win key nonconference rivalry games this weekend, it would help the chances for Virginia Tech and LSU to make some upward movement in the computers by winning a conference title game Dec. 3. Virginia Tech could make slight gains by climbing over Ohio State in a couple of ratings, while LSU has room to move up several positions in every computer, especially with a win over a 9-2 Georgia team.
This means that LSU has the potential to gain ground on Penn State in the computer ratings, while the Nittany Lions don't have a good chance to gain on the Tigers in the polls. It's tough to impress the voters when you don't play. The question is whether LSU can gain enough to erase the gap that currently exists in the BCS Standings, and it projects to be very tight between the teams.
Virginia Tech's predicament is not just that it seems impossible to pass Penn State in the computers, but also that it will be difficult for the Hokies to overtake the Lions in the polls. Without either happening, Tech can't get to No. 2 in the BCS unless USC and Texas both lose ... and even then, a loss by LSU might also be necessary.
Sorry, Hokies. Looks like whatever visions of the Rose Bowl remain for once-beaten teams should only be dancing in the heads of Penn State and LSU. But if USC loses to UCLA and falls between LSU and Penn State in the polls, the Trojans would have a pretty good shot, too.
<pre>Projected BCS Standings<br>1. USC Trojans (11-0)<br>2. Texas Longhorns (11-0)<br>3. Penn State Nittany Lions (10-1)<br>4. LSU Tigers (9-1)<br>5. Virginia Tech Hokies (9-1)<br>
6. Ohio State Buckeyes (9-2)<br>7. Oregon Ducks (10-1)<br>8. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (8-2)<br>9. Miami Hurricanes (8-2)<br>10. West Virginia Mountaineers (8-1)<br>11. Auburn Tigers (9-2)<br>12. UCLA Bruins (9-1)<br>* Through games of Nov. 19</pre>Two teams are now officially in the Bowl Championship Series. Penn State has won the automatic bid from the Big Ten, and USC will represent the Pac-10. The Trojans clinched by virtue of Oregon's win on Saturday, since SC would win a three-way tie with the Ducks and UCLA. What remains to be determined is whether Southern California will play in the Rose Bowl or the Fiesta Bowl. And even though Penn State has not been eliminated from Rose Bowl contention, it is more likely the Lions will be traveling to either the Fiesta or Orange Bowl.
Alabama's loss should remove the Crimson Tide from the list of candidates for the two BCS at-large spots, and the upset of Miami also takes Virginia Tech off that list, since the Hokies are back in the driver's seat for the ACC's automatic berth. For now, the most likely prospects seem to be Ohio State, Notre Dame and Oregon. UCLA might enter the mix with a win over USC.
If all plays out according to form, here's how I see the BCS matchups taking shape.<pre>Projected BCS matchups<br>Rose Bowl Texas (Big 12) vs. USC (Pac-10)<br>Fiesta Bowl Notre Dame (at-large) vs. Penn State (Big Ten)<br>
Orange Bowl Ohio State (at-large) vs. Virginia Tech (ACC)<br>Sugar Bowl West Virginia (Big East) vs. LSU (SEC)</pre>Obviously, No. 1 will play No. 2 in the Rose Bowl for the BCS title. If those teams are USC and Texas, the ACC champ (Orange) and SEC champ (Sugar) will then be sent to their natural host positions.
At that point, the first pick will go to whichever bowl's host team was ranked No. 1 in the final standings. Since the No. 1 team is USC, and the Rose Bowl already has the Pac-10 champion, there is no need for a compensatory selection. The first pick then defaults to whatever bowl's host team was ranked No. 2 in the final standings. Because the Big 12 champion is normally tied to the Fiesta, that bowl gets a pick to replace Texas.
Keep in mind there are eight spots in the BCS, and four conference champions -- ACC, Big 12, Pac-10 and SEC -- have already been assigned to games in this scenario. That means the Fiesta can take the Big Ten champion (Penn State), the Big East champion or utilize one of the two at-large picks. To be taken as an at-large selection, a team must have at least nine wins and rank in the top 12 of the final BCS Standings.
My best guess is that the Fiesta chooses Notre Dame in this spot, provided the Irish earn eligibility with a win over Stanford on Saturday. The next pick then goes to the Orange Bowl, and they would have a difficult decision between taking Penn State and using the other at-large pick to get Ohio State. The Nittany Lions have been to the Orange Bowl four times under Joe Paterno, while the Buckeyes haven't been there since the 1976 season under Woody Hayes. To me, that's a good enough reason for the Orange to spend the final at-large pick on OSU. The fact that the BCS and the Fiesta might also prefer that choice may or may not have an impact.
Chances are the BCS doesn't want Ohio State playing in Tempe for the third time in the last four years, especially not twice in three years as an at-large pick. Although the bowl system is first and foremost a business, there is extra scrutiny on at-large selections, since they are worth millions of additional dollars to whatever conference gets them. The BCS would prefer to avoid any accusations of impropriety or favoritism, and the Fiesta Bowl probably would, as well.
It's also true that having no at-large selection available would keep the Fiesta from having to choose between a Pac-10 team with one loss (Oregon) and a big-name team with two losses (Ohio State). That's one more reason the Orange Bowl could do the BCS and the Fiesta Bowl a favor by taking the Buckeyes. If they do, then Penn State is a no-brainer for the Fiesta as an opponent for Notre Dame.
Whatever team is left over (almost certainly the Big East champ) will go to the Sugar Bowl. If that team is West Virginia, it would be a big break for the Sugar, especially since this season's game is in Atlanta. The Mountaineers have always traveled well for bowl games, and having an SEC team as the opponent would virtually guarantee a sellout.
As things stand right now, all four BCS games are looking at very desirable matchups and capacity crowds to go with them. If that course holds, this could be the most successful season yet for the Bowl Championship Series.
Brad Edwards is a college football researcher at ESPN. His Road to the BCS appears weekly during the season.
amongst all the gobbly gook rules is a little known clause.... If you are #3 or #4 in the last BCS standings before the bowl pairings from a BCS conference you are garunteed a slot. Im guessing OSU is #6 in the next BCS poll. Should LSU and Va Tech fall OSU jumps to 4th and is assured a spot in the BCS. Right now the WORST thing that could happen for OSU's BCS hopes is if Texas were to lose. Because that would mean they have the loss in the Big 12 championship game. They would take either OSU or ND's BCS at large slot (assuimg OSU isnt 3rd or 4th)
Good thing they're still in the BCS, that might be the only bowl bid they'll get.