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BCS Chances (El Gigante Merge)

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Dryden said:
First, the BCS one and two ranked teams are slotted directly to the national title game.
Rose Bowl: USC v. Texas

Second, all remaining conference champions are slotted directly to their conferences' normally affiliated bowl.
Orange: Should receive the ACC champ, so presumably Miami, Fla.
Fiesta: Would normally be the Big-XII champ, but Texas is going to the Rose instead.
Sugar: Has first choice of Big East or SEC champ, so probably LSU.

Next, the compensatory picks are handed out before the at-large selections are made. Since the Fiesta Bowl presumably loses their affiliated conference pick (Big-XII, Texas) the Fiesta gets first pick preceding all other bowls. So Orange, Fiesta, Sugar becomes Fiesta, Orange, Fiesta, Sugar.

The Fiesta will take Notre Dame. That's pretty much a slam dunk. Really, the Orange is in the drivers' seat, since they get to choose between the Big-10 champ, Big East champ, and eligible at-large teams. The Orange Bowl essentially has the choice of marketing a rematch of two of the great Fiesta Bowls: PSU/Miami or OSU/Miami. Either one is a ratings bonanza for the Orange.

The Fiesta gets the following pick, and will most likely take whichever of the two Big-10 teams the Orange didn't take, since PSU/ND and OSU/ND are ideal choices. This leaves the Sugar Bowl the Big East champ to face the SEC champ.

Any combination of PSU/OSU v. Miami/ND is huge, and both the Orange and Fiesta will prefer one of these setups over having Alabama, Oregon, Virginia Tech, or anyone else.

Bottom line is, beat Michigan and OSU should be in the BCS as an at-large pick.
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Dryden, great summary of the BCS situation. The only thing I want to add is that a non-conference winner that ends up at #3 or #4 in the BCS would get an automatic at-large bid. (If #3 gets an auto-bid in this manner, the rule does NOT apply for #4).

This can hurt tOSU if VaTech or Alabama move up to #4. These teams won't jump USC or Texas, even if those teams lose, and I don't think either of those teams can jump Penn State if Penn State wins Saturday. And they'll only jump Miami and LSU if they lose. If Penn State loses, we can earn our spot with a win over scUM.

So the problem exists in this scenario: Penn State beats MSU. LSU wins 2 games and goes to the CCG and loses to Georgia. Miami drops their CCG to Florida State. At that point, Bama (with a win over Auburn but not a trip to the CCG) or VaTech (with wins at Virginia and over N. Carolina but no trip to the CCG) could reach #4 in the BCS and then we're screaming because ND gets the only 'free choice at-large' bid, and West Virginia (or South Florida if they win out) gets an undeserved Big East champion spot.
 
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NOTREDAMECHIEF said:
Nope, USC is the defending champ while Texas is a wanna-be....
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UT has been playing as well as anyone in the country. Do I think that UT would crush USC? Probably not. Do I think that USC would crush UT? Probably not. My point is that I think it will be a very, very good game. For you to call UT a "wanna-be" is ridiculous. Either you're biased, you know nothing about college football, or both.
 
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BB73 said:
Dryden, great summary of the BCS situation. The only thing I want to add is that a non-conference winner that ends up at #3 or #4 in the BCS would get an automatic at-large bid. (If #3 gets an auto-bid in this manner, the rule does NOT apply for #4).

This can hurt tOSU if VaTech or Alabama move up to #4. These teams won't jump USC or Texas, even if those teams lose, and I don't think either of those teams can jump Penn State if Penn State wins Saturday. And they'll only jump Miami and LSU if they lose. If Penn State loses, we can earn our spot with a win over scUM.
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Correct. Though I think the #4/Kansas State rule is a non-issue because USC, Texas, Miami and Penn State are locks at #1-4. If any one of them loses then LSU would be the first to move up, and neither USC or Texas would fall far either. Beyond LSU in the #5 spot, Ohio State should jump Va. Tech in the BCS standings with a win over Michigan.

Va. Tech's two remaining games (UNC and Virginia) will actually cause VT to drop in the BCS thanks to the SOS/PC ranking hits. OSU's lone game is @ Michigan, which is a Top-10 team by some computer polls (and an impressive road win for the pollsters).

I think OSU sews up the #6 spot with a win, and if any of the 'plausible' upsets do occur, OSU either moves up to #4 or wins the conference outright (PSU loses).
 
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Stewie at SI.com is predicting ND-Bama in the Fiesta Bowl.

And to point out the joke of the Big East's automatic bid:

Unranked South Florida is not yet bowl eligible, but controls it's own destiny for a BCS bid. If they win their last 3 games: (Cincy, at UConn, and W. Va.), they will get an automatic BCS bid, to the horror of Sugar Bowl officials.
 
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BB73 said:
Stewie at SI.com is predicting ND-Bama in the Fiesta Bowl.

And to point out the joke of the Big East's automatic bid:

Unranked South Florida is not yet bowl eligible, but controls it's own destiny for a BCS bid. If they win their last 3 games: (Cincy, at UConn, and W. Va.), they will get an automatic BCS bid, to the horror of Sugar Bowl officials.
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I think it's time to give their automatic bid to the Mountain West.
 
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Buckeye513 said:
I think it's time to give their automatic bid to the Mountain West.
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It's time to give that bid to the top team that's not in the Top-5 conferences. Sometimes that would be Mtn West, sometimes Big East, sometimes somebody else. That way they're all eligible, and the best team would get it each year. But that's fair, and not driven by Big East TV dollars, so it doesn't happen.
 
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BB73 said:
It's time to give that bid to the top team that's not in the Top-5 conferences. Sometimes that would be Mtn West, sometimes Big East, sometimes somebody else. That way they're all eligible, and the best team would get it each year. But that's fair, and not driven by Big East TV dollars, so it doesn't happen.
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Stop it. Your suggestion is about as absurd as just seeding the Top-8 teams, regardless of conference affiliation, into the BCS bowls then allowing the two consensus, top performing winners to play each other a week later. :wink2:

I mean ... these solution are outrageous!
 
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BB73 said:
It's time to give that bid to the top team that's not in the Top-5 conferences. Sometimes that would be Mtn West, sometimes Big East, sometimes somebody else. That way they're all eligible, and the best team would get it each year. But that's fair, and not driven by Big East TV dollars, so it doesn't happen.
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this suggestion seems to be a popular one. It would work much better, and let last year's Utah play a decent team.

Let's hope USF makes it. That way we can expedite the process of disqualifying the automatic bid for the bcs. The fact that they refuse to do the obvious just b/c of money/ratings is deplorable, but its the same reason we can't even consider a plus-1 game, let alone a playoff.
 
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