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Arizona State Sun Devils (official thread)

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More Sagarin:

2007: Ranks ASU's schedule as 19th toughest, OSU's as 53rd toughest.
2006: Ranks ASU's schedule as 11th toughest, OSU's as 38th toughest.
2005: Ranks ASU's schedule as 28th toughest, OSU's as 2nd toughest.
2004: Ranks ASU's schedule as 3rd toughest, OSU's as 35th toughest.

The issues here are manifold. Sagarin's SOS rankings are easily skewed: ASU plays USC every year. In 2004-2007, Sagarin ranks USC #1, #2, #2, #4, respectively. That is going to prop up ASU's SOS quite a bit. On the contrary, Ohio State is consistently the highest ranked team in the Big Ten over that same span (#21 [behind Iowa and Michgian], #3, #4[what?], #11 [lol]). For the past three years, OSU's schedule has been filled with teams ranked below us - that hurts our SOS.

If you're just looking for holes to poke in Sagarin's rankings, just look at some of the stupid SOS rankings: how could you possibly say OSU's schedule in '05 was substantially harder than in '06? In '05 OSU played Texas (#1), Penn State (#4), and Notre Dame (#8), going 1-2 against them. In '06 OSU played Texas (#2), Michigan (#2), and Florida (#2), going 2-1 against them. Yet somehow the SOS dropped from '05 to '06. Part of the issue is that Sagarin uses time of computation data rather than time of game data - which completely ignores the temporal aspects of the games. To wit, not all the games are played at the end of the season - if they were, Georgia might be gone to the MNC last year. They didn't, though, because they sucked for the first half of last year.

At any rate, whether ASU played a tougher schedule than OSU last year is kind of a silly argument. ASU is a rising program that needs all the talent they can get, and Erickson is doing a good job there. No offense, but I hope Adams goes to OSU. I'm greedy and want my team to stay on top.
 
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TheIronColonel;1219068; said:
More Sagarin:

2007: Ranks ASU's schedule as 19th toughest, OSU's as 53rd toughest.
2006: Ranks ASU's schedule as 11th toughest, OSU's as 38th toughest.
2005: Ranks ASU's schedule as 28th toughest, OSU's as 2nd toughest.
2004: Ranks ASU's schedule as 3rd toughest, OSU's as 35th toughest.

The issues here are manifold. Sagarin's SOS rankings are easily skewed: ASU plays USC every year. In 2004-2007, Sagarin ranks USC #1, #2, #2, #4, respectively. That is going to prop up ASU's SOS quite a bit. On the contrary, Ohio State is consistently the highest ranked team in the Big Ten over that same span (#21 [behind Iowa and Michgian], #3, #4[what?], #11 [lol]). For the past three years, OSU's schedule has been filled with teams ranked below us - that hurts our SOS.

If you're just looking for holes to poke in Sagarin's rankings, just look at some of the stupid SOS rankings: how could you possibly say OSU's schedule in '05 was substantially harder than in '06? In '05 OSU played Texas (#1), Penn State (#4), and Notre Dame (#8), going 1-2 against them. In '06 OSU played Texas (#2), Michigan (#2), and Florida (#2), going 2-1 against them. Yet somehow the SOS dropped from '05 to '06. Part of the issue is that Sagarin uses time of computation data rather than time of game data - which completely ignores the temporal aspects of the games. To wit, not all the games are played at the end of the season - if they were, Georgia might be gone to the MNC last year. They didn't, though, because they sucked for the first half of last year.

At any rate, whether ASU played a tougher schedule than OSU last year is kind of a silly argument. ASU is a rising program that needs all the talent they can get, and Erickson is doing a good job there. No offense, but I hope Adams goes to OSU. I'm greedy and want my team to stay on top.
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There is no right way to determine an exact strength of schedule so you have to look at these numbers wit an open mind. The numbers don't make tOSU's schedule look tough on certain years so I can see why you don't like how it's computed. I on the other hand am okay with it. If it makes you feel any better, I hate those Hollinger basketball rankings on ESPN and think they are a bunch of bologna. At the end of the year though - the Hollinger ratings were right on (Boston vs. LA) as much as I don't want to admit it.

I'm sure Corey is going to soak it all in this year so we have to bring our A game every week. You guys don't need any more 5 star recruits any way. Landing Corey for you guys is just business as usual, but landing him could turn the tide for years to come in AZ about playing for ASU and not going to a big out of state school. ASU has more at stake.
 
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What does ASU have at stake?

This will be Dennis Erickson's second recruiting class for ASU. Everyone is watching him closely to see how he's going to do. Arizona is starting to become a better high school football state and is now seeing more and more good recruits home grown. If other good recruits in AZ see more and more home grown talent attending ASU, then I think some will follow suit and not consider going out of state as much. This change in mentality could help ASU tremendously in the future when it comes to landing recruits. A good example is Eversen Griffen that went to my same high school in AZ, but he went to USC and blew off ASU. Granted, he was getting recruited by our old coach Dirk Koetter, and thankfully he is now gone. In some kids minds, if ASU is good enough for a guy like Eversen Griffen or Corey Adams, then it's good enough for me.

tOSU already gets most of their home grown talent and that's part of what makes them successful. The best option for them is the home town school and that's what ASU needs to become to the state of Arizona.
 
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IMO The trouble with ASU is the trouble with the Pac 10. We never see Indiana play Wazoo, or Northwestern against Arizona so we don't know the strength of either conference's basement. The middle level schools of both conferences don't want to square off with an equal power and risk not getting their six "bowl elgible" games in. So the big Big 10 - Pac 10 match-up takes place on the West Coast, to the advantage of the Pac 10, or early season games in Columbus and Ann Arbor, to the advantage of the Big 10.

But mostly we just never see Pac 10 football. The TV powers in the east think we want to see an SEC, ACC or Big East night contest instead of bringing us a Pac 10 game.
 
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Just to add a note to the Colonel's excellent post, I believe that the Sagarin SOS is based on the ranking of teams at the time the game was played. Last year, Cal was ranked #10 to start the season, and reached a peak of #2, after beating ORE. That's when reality put the smack down, and Cal lost 6 of it's last 8 games. It took a couple of weeks for Cal to fall out of the top 25, but by Sagarin's method, 5 Pac-10 teams got credit for playing a top tier team, when in reality, they finished 7-6 (3-6 P10), and nowhere near the top 25. USC ranked #1 every preseason doesn't hurt either.

Conversely, the Big Ten opponents ranked in the final top 25 were not ranked highly when the Buckeyes played them. Illinois did not crack the top 25 until after the OSU game. WISC finished ranked higher than at game time. Sagarin seems to reward teams (and their opponents) who start the season over-ranked, then fall off; rather than teams that work their way up the polls and finish strong.

IMO, if you take away OSU and USC, last year, the Pac-10 was slightly stronger than the Big Ten. The question is whether ORE, ASU, and OreSt can continue their success this year. The Big Ten has established itself as a conference that will have 2-4 top 25 teams and 5-8 bowl teams each year. The Pac-10 has not shown that consistency lately, but certainly has the potential.
 
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Yeah, Cal's season went down when Nate Longshore got injured and then that team never recovered. It would have been interesting to see what Cal would have done if the injury bug didn't hit them.

We always get Big 10 teams on television in AZ, so we get to watch them pretty much every weekend.
 
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reagdog;1219418; said:
The numbers don't make tOSU's schedule look tough on certain years so I can see why you don't like how it's computed.
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The reason I don't like his numbers is because they don't pass the eyeball test. In one season, OSU played three different #2 ranked teams and had their SOS substantially lower than the previous year when they played #1, #4, and #8. That simply doesn't add up.

generaladm;1219625; said:
Just to add a note to the Colonel's excellent post, I believe that the Sagarin SOS is based on the ranking of teams at the time the game was played. Last year, Cal was ranked #10 to start the season, and reached a peak of #2, after beating ORE. That's when reality put the smack down, and Cal lost 6 of it's last 8 games. It took a couple of weeks for Cal to fall out of the top 25, but by Sagarin's method, 5 Pac-10 teams got credit for playing a top tier team, when in reality, they finished 7-6 (3-6 P10), and nowhere near the top 25. USC ranked #1 every preseason doesn't hurt either.

Conversely, the Big Ten opponents ranked in the final top 25 were not ranked highly when the Buckeyes played them. Illinois did not crack the top 25 until after the OSU game. WISC finished ranked higher than at game time. Sagarin seems to reward teams (and their opponents) who start the season over-ranked, then fall off; rather than teams that work their way up the polls and finish strong.

IMO, if you take away OSU and USC, last year, the Pac-10 was slightly stronger than the Big Ten. The question is whether ORE, ASU, and OreSt can continue their success this year. The Big Ten has established itself as a conference that will have 2-4 top 25 teams and 5-8 bowl teams each year. The Pac-10 has not shown that consistency lately, but certainly has the potential.
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Can you provide any evidence that Sagarin uses game-time ranking info? The reason I ask is that for 2006, he lists OSU as 1-1 against top ten teams (Michigan and Florida) rather than 2-1 (Texas, Michigan, and Florida). This would seem to indicate that he's using time of computation data rather than time of game data. Furthermore, his description doesn't indicate which method is used, either.
 
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TheIronColonel;1219856; said:
The reason I don't like his numbers is because they don't pass the eyeball test. In one season, OSU played three different #2 ranked teams and had their SOS substantially lower than the previous year when they played #1, #4, and #8. That simply doesn't add up.



Can you provide any evidence that Sagarin uses game-time ranking info? The reason I ask is that for 2006, he lists OSU as 1-1 against top ten teams (Michigan and Florida) rather than 2-1 (Texas, Michigan, and Florida). This would seem to indicate that he's using time of computation data rather than time of game data. Furthermore, his description doesn't indicate which method is used, either.
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Looks like I may have been off on that. I used the same method as you, comparing W/L against top 10 and top 30 opponents. But looking at it again, I can't find a record that supports that claim. I still say the Sagarin rankings are flawed. He has Cal (7-6, #7 Pac-10) ranked above Illinois (9-4, #2 Big Ten). Cal is also ranked higher than three of the Pac-10 schools that beat them head to head. He has Wisconsin ranked #36 (#18 in final BCS), with seven teams of lesser records ranked higher. I agree with you, just doesn't pass the eyeball test.
 
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Hello everyone and I want to thank you again for all your help so far getting adjusted to the rules and etiquette of this forum.

I briefly looked through the FAQ's but couldn't see where it said what the "points" are for? I see everyone has them but don't understand what they are for or why you get them?

How do you get those little pictures on the top right hand corner of your posts? Not the avatar - but those numerous little pictures.

I just realized people can leave you feedback and I just found mine in my profile. Even though I'm not an OSU guy, you have mad me feel welcome and comfortable to discuss issues without getting my head torn off.

By the way, when someone leaves you a feedback comment are you supposed to respond to them?

Thanks again for your help.
 
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I may be coming out of left field with this but I just wanted to tell reagdog how much I liked Sun Devil Stadium. The way they have it nestled between two little mini-mountains (buttes if you will) gives it a unique look that I just loved. If any of you guys get a chance to catch a game there then I highly suggest you do so.
 
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reagdog;1219666; said:
Yeah, Cal's season went down when Nate Longshore got injured and then that team never recovered. It would have been interesting to see what Cal would have done if the injury bug didn't hit them.
Click to expand...

Cal falls apart like a $30 suit every season, so let's not start making excuses for them. Tedford's the most overrated coach in college football, IMO.
 
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reagdog;1219951; said:
Hello everyone and I want to thank you again for all your help so far getting adjusted to the rules and etiquette of this forum.

I briefly looked through the FAQ's but couldn't see where it said what the "points" are for? I see everyone has them but don't understand what they are for or why you get them?

How do you get those little pictures on the top right hand corner of your posts? Not the avatar - but those numerous little pictures.

I just realized people can leave you feedback and I just found mine in my profile. Even though I'm not an OSU guy, you have mad me feel welcome and comfortable to discuss issues without getting my head torn off.

By the way, when someone leaves you a feedback comment are you supposed to respond to them?

Thanks again for your help.
Click to expand...

The number that is listed as "Points" on the right of the profile banner is actually the number of "vBucks" you have. You will accumulate them naturally by replying to post, starting new threads, etc. You can also wager them in vBets, which there will be more of when football season finally gets here. The little icons on the right were able to be purchased with vCash, but the system for doing so is not available at the moment.

Points are more commonly used to mean "rep points", which are gained or lost thru the feedback feature. When someone leaves feedback on a post, the rep points are added to the recipients total rep, depending on whether it was positive or negative. A poster's rep power (# of points given by feedback) increases as they acquire more total rep. Go to your User CP to see your rep points and power. Positive rep is often referred to as "greenies", negative or "ding" as "rubies", referring to the colored dots on the right. I don't believe there's a set ettiquite regarding rep, but the golden rule is certainly applicable. The only hard and fast rule is don't whine about dings.

You may also want to browse the Administrative threads for answers (use forum jump menu at bottom right of page). If there's something you can't find, and don't want to ask in a thread, you can send a private message to a Mod or Admin, they are generally helpful, with a wiseass twist. Just click on their screen name and it will be in the drop down menu. Hope that helps.
 
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