NightmaresDad said:
1. Is your Dept of Energy estimate based on when we were paying $35 / barrel, or $56 / barrel like we are right now?
2. We import oil from other sources than OPEC
3. I did not say we would be able to reduce OPEC imports to zero, because we would need more than 30 years to empty the ANWR reserve. Just take the 18B barrels (a Dept of Energy estimate) divided by how much we curently import from OPEC per year, and you get 30 years.
4. Is everyone who states a fact in a way with which you don't agree a "liar"?
5. I'm all for alternatives (at least practical ones) as well, and would like to see our cars' avg MPG steadily increase - but has anyone considered that if we were all getting 20% increased MPG, that as a country we would also end up driving more miles per year? Rather than saying "I have more money in my pocket" this country would be saying "I have more gas in my tank - let's go!". Consumption would not be affected as much as we might hope.
6. A lot of people who claim to be environmentalists are always messing with statistics. The Alaska pipeline was supposed to wipe out untold herds of Caribou. Those same herds are now 5 times greater than they were before the pipeline was constructed. In the 60's the concern was actually for "Global cooling" - now, of course, "Global warming" is all the rage. I don't think the earth gives a s*** one way or the other what we do - She will be around long after we are gone.
1. The estimate was from ~ April 2004. I don’t how it would affect the current prices, but as the production is proportional, my first instinct would be to say that the price effect would be as well, or about 1% (but 75 cents instead of 50 cents or whatever).
2. True.
3. The current estimate at the Department of Energy site puts the amount of oil at 10.3 billion barrels (the mean of the estimates).
The peak production per day is estimated by the Department of Energy at 876,000 per day – in 2025.
According to the department of energy, at PEAK production we will drop from 70% imported oil to 66%. That’s just what they said.
You can’t just divide the total amount of oil by years – you have to be able to get the oil as fast as you want to do that, and that isn’t the case.
4. Nobody is a liar. I called nobody a liar. If you are referring to my “(lies, damned lies. . .)” comment, I was alluding to an incredibly famous phrase about statistics: “there are lies, damned lies, and statistics.”
5. I totally agree. If we increase efficiency by 20% half or so of the increase will go to increased usage. Or even all of it at a certain level, and eventually tapering off. I am not sure what the correlation would be, but I am sure consumption would go up with efficiency to a point.
6. Totally agree again. Everyone messes with statistics. Hence the “lies, damned lies. . .” stuff.
In case you didn't catch it, I wasn't talking about you, but rather about those that mess with statistics to support their view-- on both sides (I am for the drilling, remember). The Bush administration has enforced greater control over the executive institutions than any administration in the past, which is fine. This should also mean that the government's own estimates are probably not totally against the drilling. . .