The thing about UVA is that they have an offense that flows until they play someone who has terrific defensive talent and the intensity is ratcheted up to 10. Then all of a sudden they are like Chip Kelly Oregon, when they aren't having their way offensively, the system collapses - in this case because their offense gives up points and they can't keep pace even with just decent offense by the opponent and when they get too far behind they ultimately can't stay patient like the system is designed to be. I believe Kansas St could beat UVA, even without Dean Wade. Dean Wade gave them nothing on D, and UVA's scoring mostly isn't in the interior anyway, so the UVA upset theory of defense first to turn the the tables is viable there. K-State has the type of defensive ability to give UVA fits. I suppose that could be the upset pick if you are looking to knock out UVA. But of course K-State has to win 2 games to get the matchup.