Glancing across the schedule for next year, I started wondering about the prospects are of the Big Ten improving next year. Thus, I decided to take a stab at giving a quick rundown on what the conference will look like next in 2012, starting with the Leaders Division (in order from last years standings):
1. Wisconsin: Tough to say definitively, as Bucky always plugs in seeming no-names and puts together a solid team. Make no mistake though, this will not be the same team we saw in 2011. They lose two top playmakers in Wilson and Toon, while getting big news when Montee Ball decided to stay for his senior season. However, All-American center Peter Konz declared for the NFL, leaving Wisky to replace their C, RG, and RT next year. They have a history of developing OL well, but the losing Wilson, Toon, and Konz will likely be problematic. On the defensive side of the ball, Wisconsin must replace 6 of 11 starters. The biggest loss is Aaron Henry at safety, but they return stud LB's in Borland and Taylor. Overall, Wisconsin should be tough but they have some major question marks to answer.
2. Penn State: I am chosing to look past all the turbulence and coaching situation to ascertain the talent returning. 4 of 5 OL graduate. McGloin graduates and while he was not spectacular, he was a step up from Bolden, who was struggled greatly at the college ranks. While they lose their biggest threat at WR in Moye, they do get Brown back and Redd at RB, so there are a couple of playmakers on the offensive side still in tact. On the defensive side, the Nittany Lions have almost a complete turnover with 8 of 11 starters leaving, including their entire secondary. However, the biggest losses come in Crawford and Still on the DL, who were both All Big Ten performers and likely NFL prospects. Overall, I don't expect PSU to win more than 6-7 games total next season. That is just talent speaking...it could be worse if there are lingering effects from the scandal.
3. Purdue: You really never know what to expect from the Boilermakers. They give us fits, but struggle with other Big 10 teams. The only lose one big playmaker on offense in WR Justin Siler. However, they return senior QB Caleb Terbush, who showed real promise last season, in addition to senior RB Ralph Bolden, who also is impressive. Up front, only two seniors depart, albeit Kelly at LT is a big loss. On defense, the Boilermakers only lose 4 starters. They return stud DT Kawann Short and All Big 10 performer CB Ricardo Allen. The biggest loss may be First Team All Big Ten Kicker Carson Wiggs. Overall, Purdue returns a ton of talent across the board, especially in the skilled positions. Not sure if they top OSU and Bucky, but this actually might be your darkhorse candidate to win the Leaders division next season. It all hinges on if Coach Danny Hope can get his players ready.
4. Illinois: After a miserable season in 2011, the Illini actually return a fair amount of player: The problem? Those players produced a 2-6 conference record last season. On offense, they lose star WR A.J. Jenkins and RB' Jason Ford and Troy Pollard. On the plus side, nimble QB Nathan Scheelhaase returns for his junior year. They also lose a dependable starter at LT in Jeff Allen. On defense, sack freak and Ohio product Whitney Mercilus declared early for the NFL draft, although fellow stud DE Michael Buchanan returns. Overall, the Illini have players returning but the star power is seriously lacking. New HC Tim Beckman may be in for a rough first season.
5. Indiana: Not wasting my time here...0-5 last season and 1-11 overall. Nothing to see here.
Now the Legends division...
1. Michigan State: Extremely difficult to guess what happens to the Spartans in 2012. They lose a slew of offensive players, but retain a young and talented defense. Starting on offense, Sparty loses star QB Kirk Cousins, their 3 leading receivers in Keyshawn Martin, B.J. Cunningham, and Keith Nicol. They also lose a good TE in Brian Linthicum, but return Dion Sims. A stable of RB's return for MSU in Le'Veon Bell, Larry Caper, and Edwin Baker. They should have a talented line to run behin, as 4 of 5 return, although the best of the bunch departs in First Team All Big Ten guard Joel Foreman graduates. Question on offense is whether MSU can develop enough of a passing game to not become completely one dimensional. On defense, the Spartans ranked 5th in overall defense during the regular season and only lose 2 starters. However, super star DT Jerel Worthy declaring for the NFL is a huge loss in the middle for the Spartans, as is graduating senior safety Trenton Robinson. Coming back is DL William Gholston, who showed real promise last season, and LB's Max Bullough and Denicos Allen, who led the team in tackles. Another key returner is First Team All Big Ten CB Johnny Adams. Overall, I think the Spartans have a good season and contend for the Legends Division, but I think the potential lack of a passing game may lose them a few games.
2. Michigan: I see the Wolverines having a similar run in 2012...a ton of offense but a struggling defense. Yes, technically their defense was better last season but when ailing offenses such as Notre Dame and Ohio State put up 31 and 34 points on you respectively, it isn't too noteworthy. On offense, the choosen one Denard Robinson returns for his senior campaign, along with electric RB's Fitz Toussaint and Vincent Smith in the backfield. The primary skill position players leaving are RB Michael Shaw, WR's Junior Hemmingway, Kelvin Grady, and Martavious Odoms, as well as TE Kevin Koger. However, Michigan uses many skill players and returns a set of receivers and backs. They lose 2 starting OL, namely C David Molk. However, the line remains mostly in tact. LT Taylor Lewan returns after a solid sophomore year. On defense, 3 of 4 DL depart, most notably stud DT Mike Martin. The back seven only loses CB Troy Woolfolk. While the defensive unit could be improved this season, the DL was practically decimated and the incoming starters will need to step it up to help the LB's and DB's. I think a 9-3 seems likely for the weasels up north (blowout loss to Bama in week 1, loss to ND away, and to OSU in the 'Shoe...in that scenario, they would still win the Legends division. Of course, MSU at home and Nebraska are far from gimmies).
3. Nebraska: My personal darkhorse to win the Legends Divsion. 9 of 11 starters return on offense, most importantly QB Taylor Martinez and RB Rex Burkhead. The Huskers must find two new starters at the tackle spots, but the interior OL remains in tact. The offense ranked 58th total in the NCAA but they have the right pieces to improve upon that mark. On defense, Nebraska does lose serious star power in DT Jared Crick, LB Lavonte David, and CB Alfonzo Dennard. S Austin Cassidy was also a solid performer that graduated. However, there appear to be three good players at each position that are ready to step up. DT Baker Steinkuhler is a manchild inside, LB Will Compton was runner up in tackles and is a good one, and S Daimion Stafford was third in the team in tackles and always breaking up passes. The real question for this team in my eyes is how their defense steps up after losing those top 3 talents. They were ranked 36th nationall in total defense last year and if they can improve upon that mark slightly, they could very well take this division.
4. Iowa: Iowa loses their two best offensive players in WR Marvin McNutt and LT (and likely first round pick) Riley Reiff, leaving only two returning starters on the OL. However, Iowa produces OL like nobodies business and I'll consider that a problem when I see it. Perhaps the biggest departure is RB Marcus Coker, who rushed for over 1,000 yards last season. However, hey return the rest of their offense. QB James Vandenberg returns for his senior year after a very good junior season. On defense, the Hawkeyes lose 6 of their starters, including all but 1 DL. They lose stars in the secondary in S Jordan Bernstine and CB Shaun Prater, but retain Micah Hyde at CB. They were an average defense last year at 68th total in the NCAA and I'm not sure they improve upon that. Sometimes a Ferentz coached team will surprise you but they will have to do just that in 2012 to compete in the Big 10...surprise people.
5. Northwestern: After high hopes for 2011, Wildcat fans had a big letdown and I'm not sure the forecast is much better in 2012. Northwestern loses Persa at QB, RB Drake Dunsmore, and WR Jeremy Ebert, all of the top playmakers on offense. However, QB Kain Colter does return after showing promise filling in for Persa and is a threat with his feet and arm, as he lead the team in rushing. However, that is also indicative of the lack of RB's. On the OL, Northwestern returns 3 starters and must break in a new LT. On defense they return 8 starters but must improve from being ranked 80th in overall defense.
6. Minnesota: Join Indiana in the not wasting my time column (1-4 in the conference, 3-9 overall).
Overall: At an early glance, it does not appear the Big Ten is improving much this season. I could see Michigan, OSU, and Purdue improving, but could easily see Nebraska, MSU, Penn State, and Wisconsin regressing. However, there will be a lot of new blood and hopefully better play. As for OSU, I think we CAN go undefeated in league play, but see us dropping 2 total. I saved my prognostications for OSU in another thread, as we get plenty of discussion there. Any opposing fans (or ours) for that matter please chip in. I just figured I would get the league discussion rolling. Unfortunately I see the Big Ten trailing the SEC, Pac 12, and Big 12 in that order next year, possibly the ACC.
1. Wisconsin: Tough to say definitively, as Bucky always plugs in seeming no-names and puts together a solid team. Make no mistake though, this will not be the same team we saw in 2011. They lose two top playmakers in Wilson and Toon, while getting big news when Montee Ball decided to stay for his senior season. However, All-American center Peter Konz declared for the NFL, leaving Wisky to replace their C, RG, and RT next year. They have a history of developing OL well, but the losing Wilson, Toon, and Konz will likely be problematic. On the defensive side of the ball, Wisconsin must replace 6 of 11 starters. The biggest loss is Aaron Henry at safety, but they return stud LB's in Borland and Taylor. Overall, Wisconsin should be tough but they have some major question marks to answer.
2. Penn State: I am chosing to look past all the turbulence and coaching situation to ascertain the talent returning. 4 of 5 OL graduate. McGloin graduates and while he was not spectacular, he was a step up from Bolden, who was struggled greatly at the college ranks. While they lose their biggest threat at WR in Moye, they do get Brown back and Redd at RB, so there are a couple of playmakers on the offensive side still in tact. On the defensive side, the Nittany Lions have almost a complete turnover with 8 of 11 starters leaving, including their entire secondary. However, the biggest losses come in Crawford and Still on the DL, who were both All Big Ten performers and likely NFL prospects. Overall, I don't expect PSU to win more than 6-7 games total next season. That is just talent speaking...it could be worse if there are lingering effects from the scandal.
3. Purdue: You really never know what to expect from the Boilermakers. They give us fits, but struggle with other Big 10 teams. The only lose one big playmaker on offense in WR Justin Siler. However, they return senior QB Caleb Terbush, who showed real promise last season, in addition to senior RB Ralph Bolden, who also is impressive. Up front, only two seniors depart, albeit Kelly at LT is a big loss. On defense, the Boilermakers only lose 4 starters. They return stud DT Kawann Short and All Big 10 performer CB Ricardo Allen. The biggest loss may be First Team All Big Ten Kicker Carson Wiggs. Overall, Purdue returns a ton of talent across the board, especially in the skilled positions. Not sure if they top OSU and Bucky, but this actually might be your darkhorse candidate to win the Leaders division next season. It all hinges on if Coach Danny Hope can get his players ready.
4. Illinois: After a miserable season in 2011, the Illini actually return a fair amount of player: The problem? Those players produced a 2-6 conference record last season. On offense, they lose star WR A.J. Jenkins and RB' Jason Ford and Troy Pollard. On the plus side, nimble QB Nathan Scheelhaase returns for his junior year. They also lose a dependable starter at LT in Jeff Allen. On defense, sack freak and Ohio product Whitney Mercilus declared early for the NFL draft, although fellow stud DE Michael Buchanan returns. Overall, the Illini have players returning but the star power is seriously lacking. New HC Tim Beckman may be in for a rough first season.
5. Indiana: Not wasting my time here...0-5 last season and 1-11 overall. Nothing to see here.
Now the Legends division...
1. Michigan State: Extremely difficult to guess what happens to the Spartans in 2012. They lose a slew of offensive players, but retain a young and talented defense. Starting on offense, Sparty loses star QB Kirk Cousins, their 3 leading receivers in Keyshawn Martin, B.J. Cunningham, and Keith Nicol. They also lose a good TE in Brian Linthicum, but return Dion Sims. A stable of RB's return for MSU in Le'Veon Bell, Larry Caper, and Edwin Baker. They should have a talented line to run behin, as 4 of 5 return, although the best of the bunch departs in First Team All Big Ten guard Joel Foreman graduates. Question on offense is whether MSU can develop enough of a passing game to not become completely one dimensional. On defense, the Spartans ranked 5th in overall defense during the regular season and only lose 2 starters. However, super star DT Jerel Worthy declaring for the NFL is a huge loss in the middle for the Spartans, as is graduating senior safety Trenton Robinson. Coming back is DL William Gholston, who showed real promise last season, and LB's Max Bullough and Denicos Allen, who led the team in tackles. Another key returner is First Team All Big Ten CB Johnny Adams. Overall, I think the Spartans have a good season and contend for the Legends Division, but I think the potential lack of a passing game may lose them a few games.
2. Michigan: I see the Wolverines having a similar run in 2012...a ton of offense but a struggling defense. Yes, technically their defense was better last season but when ailing offenses such as Notre Dame and Ohio State put up 31 and 34 points on you respectively, it isn't too noteworthy. On offense, the choosen one Denard Robinson returns for his senior campaign, along with electric RB's Fitz Toussaint and Vincent Smith in the backfield. The primary skill position players leaving are RB Michael Shaw, WR's Junior Hemmingway, Kelvin Grady, and Martavious Odoms, as well as TE Kevin Koger. However, Michigan uses many skill players and returns a set of receivers and backs. They lose 2 starting OL, namely C David Molk. However, the line remains mostly in tact. LT Taylor Lewan returns after a solid sophomore year. On defense, 3 of 4 DL depart, most notably stud DT Mike Martin. The back seven only loses CB Troy Woolfolk. While the defensive unit could be improved this season, the DL was practically decimated and the incoming starters will need to step it up to help the LB's and DB's. I think a 9-3 seems likely for the weasels up north (blowout loss to Bama in week 1, loss to ND away, and to OSU in the 'Shoe...in that scenario, they would still win the Legends division. Of course, MSU at home and Nebraska are far from gimmies).
3. Nebraska: My personal darkhorse to win the Legends Divsion. 9 of 11 starters return on offense, most importantly QB Taylor Martinez and RB Rex Burkhead. The Huskers must find two new starters at the tackle spots, but the interior OL remains in tact. The offense ranked 58th total in the NCAA but they have the right pieces to improve upon that mark. On defense, Nebraska does lose serious star power in DT Jared Crick, LB Lavonte David, and CB Alfonzo Dennard. S Austin Cassidy was also a solid performer that graduated. However, there appear to be three good players at each position that are ready to step up. DT Baker Steinkuhler is a manchild inside, LB Will Compton was runner up in tackles and is a good one, and S Daimion Stafford was third in the team in tackles and always breaking up passes. The real question for this team in my eyes is how their defense steps up after losing those top 3 talents. They were ranked 36th nationall in total defense last year and if they can improve upon that mark slightly, they could very well take this division.
4. Iowa: Iowa loses their two best offensive players in WR Marvin McNutt and LT (and likely first round pick) Riley Reiff, leaving only two returning starters on the OL. However, Iowa produces OL like nobodies business and I'll consider that a problem when I see it. Perhaps the biggest departure is RB Marcus Coker, who rushed for over 1,000 yards last season. However, hey return the rest of their offense. QB James Vandenberg returns for his senior year after a very good junior season. On defense, the Hawkeyes lose 6 of their starters, including all but 1 DL. They lose stars in the secondary in S Jordan Bernstine and CB Shaun Prater, but retain Micah Hyde at CB. They were an average defense last year at 68th total in the NCAA and I'm not sure they improve upon that. Sometimes a Ferentz coached team will surprise you but they will have to do just that in 2012 to compete in the Big 10...surprise people.
5. Northwestern: After high hopes for 2011, Wildcat fans had a big letdown and I'm not sure the forecast is much better in 2012. Northwestern loses Persa at QB, RB Drake Dunsmore, and WR Jeremy Ebert, all of the top playmakers on offense. However, QB Kain Colter does return after showing promise filling in for Persa and is a threat with his feet and arm, as he lead the team in rushing. However, that is also indicative of the lack of RB's. On the OL, Northwestern returns 3 starters and must break in a new LT. On defense they return 8 starters but must improve from being ranked 80th in overall defense.
6. Minnesota: Join Indiana in the not wasting my time column (1-4 in the conference, 3-9 overall).
Overall: At an early glance, it does not appear the Big Ten is improving much this season. I could see Michigan, OSU, and Purdue improving, but could easily see Nebraska, MSU, Penn State, and Wisconsin regressing. However, there will be a lot of new blood and hopefully better play. As for OSU, I think we CAN go undefeated in league play, but see us dropping 2 total. I saved my prognostications for OSU in another thread, as we get plenty of discussion there. Any opposing fans (or ours) for that matter please chip in. I just figured I would get the league discussion rolling. Unfortunately I see the Big Ten trailing the SEC, Pac 12, and Big 12 in that order next year, possibly the ACC.
