2026 tOSU Offense Discussion

[Jaxbuck]

Who cares about efficiency if you’re scoring 12 more points a game. More opportunities = more points.

ok

I said it way back but it matters on a human level....please don't ever gamble if you aren't playing just for fun with a completely discretionary pile of money.

Your level of understanding game theory, strategy, odds and risk is what Vegas was built on.

As far as this topic goes, I've shown everything I can show and explained everything I can explain. Day has clearly changed his strategy over the past 4 years and I'm telling you why.

Do with it what you will. I know who I find to be more credible.

 

[Captain Buckeye]

ok

I said it way back but it matters on a human level....please don't ever gamble if you aren't playing just for fun with a completely discretionary pile of money.

Your level of understanding game theory, strategy, odds and risk is what Vegas was built on.

As far as this topic goes, I've shown everything I can show and explained everything I can explain. Day has clearly changed his strategy over the past 4 years and I'm telling you why.

Do with it what you will. I know who I find to be more credible.

The thing you aren’t accounting for is we are Vegas. We are the ones with the better odds.

If we were the ones gambling (the lessor talented team) then I agree. But if you’re the one with the better odds then force a team with less talent to do it again and again.

I understand the approach and it’s worked out pretty well overall. But I think we could all agree is sure would’ve been nice to have an extra 3 possessions vs Miami and IU.

Edit- anyway I think I’ve made my point lol no need to keep carrying on. This offense regardless should be something but will be good to see them tested more frequently next year.

 

[Onebuckfan]

My advice score 21 and we win.

 

[OregonBuckeye]

My advice score 21 and we win.

My advice score 42 and we win comfortably

 

[System_id]

My advice score 42 and we win comfortably

Increase that to 84 just to be extra safe

 

[1926Buckeyes]

My advice score 42 and we win comfortably

Increase that to 84 just to be extra safe

Don't have enough time to kick that many fields goals.

 

[Jaxbuck]

The thing you aren’t accounting for is we are Vegas. We are the ones with the better odds.

We are the ones with better skill. Odds are not skill. Lead is not gold, fat is not muscle and none of these things turn into the other things.

I pointed out gambling as something you should avoid because the concept of "I just need more opportunities for my luck to turn around" is how bad gamblers go broke and big shiny buildings get built.

The guys who make a living at selling you risk want you to have this kind of fundamental misunderstanding.

If we were the ones gambling (the lessor talented team) then I agree. But if you’re the one with the better odds then force a team with less talent to do it again and again.

Jesus Christ. That is exactly backwards and again, "we" aren't the house in a casino game. You are using ana analogy that makes no sense.

I'll do this one last time for my own peace of mind:
-The outcome of a play = skill + luck(random variance)
-More plays increase the chance of luck expressing itself (fattens the tail in a distribution curve). So try to absorb that slowly....More plays = more luck...when you have the better skill...this is bad.
-When you have the lesser skilled team (or are behind) you now want luck to express itself because you need it. Again...lesser team wants/needs luck. How do you give yourself the chance for more luck? Go faster, run more plays.

With the better team...going faster helps your opponent. Doing things to help the opponent is generally considered a bad idea.

I understand the approach and it’s worked out pretty well overall. But I think we could all agree is sure would’ve been nice to have an extra 3 possessions vs Miami and IU.

Edit- anyway I think I’ve made my point lol no need to keep carrying on. This offense regardless should be something but will be good to see them tested more frequently next year.

You've made a very clear statement-I'll give you that. I don't think it's the statement you think it is, but you've made it.


The strategy of winning through efficiency is simple:
-plays are the building block of a possession
-everyone, regardless of skill level wants to score more points per possession on offense and..
-allow fewer points per possession on defense
-When you have the better skill and a positive delta (that means difference) in points per possession then you can really hurt the opponent by doing what?.......
Reduce their number of possessions on top of having a per possession advantage.
How do you do that? Take time off the clock on offense as you score.

That is what Day has been doing for 4 years now. He won a NC with it last year. This is how Cignetti at IU beat OSU this year. His guys could just execute better. These guys aren't stupid. They know the best strategy for winning the game of football.

 

[BB73]

Another way to look at the decision to try to increase possessions because of a perceived talent advantage: mathematically.

If you are Team A, and have a talent advantage and operate more efficiently, your chances of scoring on each possession could be:

Team A: 40% chance at 7 points, 20% chance at 3 points, and 40% chance at 0 points.

Team B: 25% chance at 7 points, 15% chance at 3 points, and 50% chance at 0 points.

If each team got 10 possessions, on average Team A would score 34 points, and Team B would score an average of 22 points.

If each team got 12 possessions, on average Team A would score 40.8 points and Team B would score an average of 26.4 points.

Since more possessions increase the probability for a larger point differential, and thus increase the chances of Team A winning, I think that fact is sensed by those hoping for a faster pace.

This of course assumes other things being equal in impacting the outcome, such as the rest each defense would be getting, and the ability to execute efficiently at an increased tempo.

And this is just for an individual game, it doesn’t factor in how increased plays increase the chances of injuries and thus could decrease the likelihood of winning subsequent games.

 

[Jaxbuck]

Another way to look at the decision to try to increase possessions because of a perceived talent advantage: mathematically.

If you are Team A, and have a talent advantage, your chances of scoring on each possession could be:

Team A: 40% chance at 7 points, 20% chance at 3 points, and 40% chance at 0 points.

Team B: 25% chance at 7 points, 15% chance at 3 points, and 50% chance at 0 points.

If each team got 10 possessions, on average Team A would score 34 points, and Team B would score an average of 22 points.

If each team got 12 possessions, on average Team A would score 40.8 points and Team B would score an average of 26.4 points.

Since more possessions increase the probability for an increased point differential, and thus increase the chances of Team A winning, I think that fact is sensed by those hoping for a faster pace.

This of course assumes other things being equal in impacting the outcome, such as the rest each defense would be getting, and the ability to execute efficiently at an increased tempo.

And this is just for an individual game, it doesn’t factor in how increased plays increase the chances of injuries and thus could decrease the likelihood of winning subsequent games.

But if team A had 10 possessions and team B only got 8 it would be 34 to 18.

That is the part the go faster crowd is missing. It's volume vs efficiency. Law of large numbers vs Risk Mitigation.

Offense does not exist in a vacuum. It isn't liner. You have to play defense and every time you do the other team has a luck component that is waiting to express itself. If you have more skill, you want to suppress luck. The surest way to do that is take time away as you score.

If it was a linear model you could jus go faster, create more volume and eventually win because you score more points per play or possession that they do...BUT football has a clock and rules that require you to give the other team the ball back. Linear thinking ignores that reality.

If you are behind or have the lesser team then you want more possessions so then by all means you want to go faster. You are still constrained but it's your best shot. You need to get lucky. OSU is rarely behind and is almost never the lesser skilled team so it makes complete sense that they would embrace a strategy that aims to create a possession imbalance and get away from a volume approach.

Let's use real numbers this year so we can see this.
2025 Net points per drive

1. IU 2.49
2. OSU 2.26

IU has 10 possessions = 24.9 points
OSU has 8 = 18.08
25-18 = 7 point MOV

Now go faster but keep the possession delta
IU gets 12 possessions = 29.88
OSU gets 10 = 22.6
Same MOV

Both teams go equally faster (this is what's being proposed here). IU gets their 12 possessions but in so doing give OSU 12
29.88
27.12
This now becomes a 3 point game

Why would the better team (IU in this case) want to do that?

Creating that possession delta is a multiplier of win %...something like a 3x multiplier. It's the superior strategy for the better team. This isn't an opinion thing, it's straight math.

 

[Captain Buckeye]

We are the ones with better skill. Odds are not skill. Lead is not gold, fat is not muscle and none of these things turn into the other things.

I pointed out gambling as something you should avoid because the concept of "I just need more opportunities for my luck to turn around" is how bad gamblers go broke and big shiny buildings get built.

The guys who make a living at selling you risk want you to have this kind of fundamental misunderstanding.

Jesus Christ. That is exactly backwards and again, "we" aren't the house in a casino game. You are using ana analogy that makes no sense.

I'll do this one last time for my own peace of mind:
-The outcome of a play = skill + luck(random variance)
-More plays increase the chance of luck expressing itself (fattens the tail in a distribution curve). So try to absorb that slowly....More plays = more luck...when you have the better skill...this is bad.
-When you have the lesser skilled team (or are behind) you now want luck to express itself because you need it. Again...lesser team wants/needs luck. How do you give yourself the chance for more luck? Go faster, run more plays.

With the better team...going faster helps your opponent. Doing things to help the opponent is generally considered a bad idea.

You've made a very clear statement-I'll give you that. I don't think it's the statement you think it is, but you've made it.


The strategy of winning through efficiency is simple:
-plays are the building block of a possession
-everyone, regardless of skill level wants to score more points per possession on offense and..
-allow fewer points per possession on defense
-When you have the better skill and a positive delta (that means difference) in points per possession then you can really hurt the opponent by doing what?.......
Reduce their number of possessions on top of having a per possession advantage.
How do you do that? Take time off the clock on offense as you score.

That is what Day has been doing for 4 years now. He won a NC with it last year. This is how Cignetti at IU beat OSU this year. His guys could just execute better. These guys aren't stupid. They know the best strategy for winning the game of football.

They aren’t stupid, but I’m sorry I just disagree with you. I get your points but if you’re the more talented team the slower or less explosive you are the longer that team hangs around. Then from there luck has a greater chance of losing you a game.

Who’s to say we’d be less efficient if we moved faster anyway? Why would that diminish and not hold true to our current percent? Also when you have the best defense in the country for the last 3 years we can afford to push the pace or throw a haymaker or two more.

 

[BB73]

But if team A had 10 possessions and team B only got 8 it would be 34 to 18.

That is the part the go faster crowd is missing. It's volume vs efficiency. Law of large numbers vs Risk Mitigation.

Offense does not exist in a vacuum. It isn't liner. You have to play defense and every time you do the other team has a luck component that is waiting to express itself. If you have more skill, you want to suppress luck. The surest way to do that is take time away as you score.

If it was a linear model you could jus go faster, create more volume and eventually win because you score more points per play or possession that they do...BUT football has a clock and rules that require you to give the other team the ball back. Linear thinking ignores that reality.

If you are behind or have the lesser team then you want more possessions so then by all means you want to go faster. You are still constrained but it's your best shot. You need to get lucky. OSU is rarely behind and is almost never the lesser skilled team so it makes complete sense that they would embrace a strategy that aims to create a possession imbalance and get away from a volume approach.

Let's use real numbers this year so we can see this.
2025 Net points per drive

1. IU 2.49
2. OSU 2.26

IU has 10 possessions = 24.9 points
OSU has 8 = 18.08
25-18 = 7 point MOV

Now go faster but keep the possession delta
IU gets 12 possessions = 29.88
OSU gets 10 = 22.6
Same MOV

Both teams go equally faster (this is what's being proposed here). IU gets their 12 possessions but in so doing give OSU 12
29.88
27.12
This now becomes a 3 point game

Why would the better team (IU in this case) want to do that?

Creating that possession delta is a multiplier of win %...something like a 3x multiplier. It's the superior strategy for the better team. This isn't an opinion thing, it's straight math.

In my example, if Team A has 10 possessions, so does Team B. Efficient click management can get a team 1 extra possession, I don’t see how a team gets 2 more possessions.

 

[Jaxbuck]

They aren’t stupid, but I’m sorry I just disagree with you. I get your points but if you’re the more talented team the slower or less explosive you are the longer that team hangs around. Then from there luck has a greater chance of losing you a game.

Thats just wrong. It isn’t an opinion thing. Look at the math I did above. Stop saying you get it. You don’t.

Who’s to say we’d be less efficient if we moved faster anyway? Why would that diminish and not hold true to our current percent? Also when you have the best defense in the country for the last 3 years we can afford to push the pace or throw a haymaker or two more.

Thats why I used actual numbers. All of that “yeah but “ bullshit is baked in. This are the real world net points per possession. They capture how good you are on both sides of the ball.

Again, go look at the math I did above.

It’s not an opinion thing. We aren’t talking about the existence of the Easter Bunny or Santa here.

If my skill gives me a per possession edge and I can manipulate the game to get more possessions than I give you then I am going to win.

Giving the opponent more possessions is about the dumbest thing the better team could do.

 

[Jaxbuck]

In my example, if Team A has 10 possessions, so does Team B.

And I talked about that at length in my post.

 

[Captain Buckeye]

Thats just wrong. It isn’t an opinion thing. Look at the math I did above. Stop saying you get it. You don’t.

Thats why I used actual numbers. All of that “yeah but “ bullshit is baked in. This are the real world net points per possession. They capture how good you are on both sides of the ball.

Again, go look at the math I did above.

It’s not an opinion thing. We aren’t talking about the existence of the Easter Bunny or Santa here.

If my skill gives me a per possession edge and I can manipulate the game to get more possessions than I give you then I am going to win.

Giving the opponent more possessions is about the dumbest thing the better team could do.

Not if you aren’t going to score on yours. Ran into this both games back to back that ended the season.

You better score or you’re going to lose. If you aren’t going to be efficient with your possessions you’d better have more of them.

 

[BB73]

And I talked about that at length in my post.

If Team A kicks off in the first half, and Team B kicks off the second, how does 1 team get 2 more possessions? Even a fumbled kickoff is a possession. An onside kick can steal a possession, but that’s really it.

Sorry, but I’m failing to see how Indiana has 12 possession to tOSU ‘s 10 (or 10 vs. 8), but if they speed up each team gets 12 possessions.