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2025 Cotton Bowl: #2 tOSU vs #10 Miami-FL, Wed 12/31 7:30 ET at JerryWorld

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We will come in more rested with hopefully no rust issues. If we are sharp and play clean we should win the game comfortably. I think we have better coaches and better players. The crowd should be in our favor as well. Probably around 70-30. Maybe even more. Avoid turnovers on offense and no stupid penalties. Especially of the 10 and 15 yd variety. Our boys will be hungry for this and have something to prove, at night and under the lights.
 
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scarletngray said:
We will come in more rested with hopefully no rust issues. If we are sharp and play clean we should win the game comfortably. I think we have better coaches and better players. The crowd should be in our favor as well. Probably around 70-30. Maybe even more. Avoid turnovers on offense and no stupid penalties. Especially of the 10 and 15 yd variety. Our boys will be hungry for this and have something to prove, at night and under the lights.
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This.

OSU just needs to run it's normal process to win. Miami needs events to happen to win (turnovers, penalties, special teams).

Give me that set up any time and I'll take my chances.
 
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Captain Buckeye said:
I think that’s way you should view the game or you’ll be disappointed if it’s not.

But I do not expect this game to be close.

Bucks 35-Miami 17
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I'm thinking something closer to 24-10 but you might be right. Famous last words but I'm having a hard time seeing how UM scores more than 10 that aren't the result of turnovers.
 
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Jaxbuck said:
This is the exact "logic" a bad gambler falls into and starts making more bets when he's losing. "I just need more opportunities to overcome bad luck"

There is no way to equivocate on this, if you are having execution problems, doing it on volume is not a good idea.
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I think that the unaccounted for variable here is that both the offense and the defense have to execute. If you go uptempo, you may increase the odds of defensive execution errors (e.g. flat out coverage busts), that let you score with fewer plays, and thereby fewer opportunities for poor offensive execution. If you think that your offense has more execution issues than your defense, then trying to score with fewer plays by forcing defensive execution errors and trusting your defense to execute even when the opposing offense gets more opportunities may be the way to go. I may be misreading some of your prior posts, but there also seems to be an unstated assumption that luck plays a bigger role when you're on defense than when you're on offense, and I don't understand why that's the case if it is what's being assumed.

While ultimately execution is more important than tempo, against a team like Indiana that's heady and versatile but likely doesn't have great depth of talent, going faster to eliminate creative substitutions and try to force defensive execution errors, which may also become more likely with fatigue, may have been a solid value proposition.
 
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Jagdaddy said:
I may be misreading some of your prior posts, but there also seems to be an unstated assumption that luck plays a bigger role when you're on defense than when you're on offense, and I don't understand why that's the case if it is what's being assumed.
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It goes back to the simple truth of every out come being skill + luck = outcome.

Look at the odds of giving up points. Greater when on defense than on offense, right? The luck element of the outcome is higher than when on offense.

Choosing a path that creates more opportunity for the opponent (defense) is a flawed strategy. It can work out and people think it’s ok, but it was the wrong approach no matter the outcome.

To use the casino analogy a different way; Offense in football is like playing poker. If you have a skill advantage you want to play as many hands as possible. Your skill will win out. BUT in football you have to play defense and that is like having to stop playing poker and go over to play roulette. You can even be the house and get better odds if you have an elite defense but sooner or later, some stupid fucking tourist is going to hit on red 27 and you are going to have to pay.

You want to stay at the poker table as much as you can and stay away from the roulette table in the process.
 
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Jaxbuck said:
It goes back to the simple truth of every out come being skill + luck = outcome.

Look at the odds of giving up points. Greater when on defense than on offense, right? The luck element of the outcome is higher than when on offense.

Choosing a path that creates more opportunity for the opponent (defense) is a flawed strategy. It can work out and people think it’s ok, but it was the wrong approach no matter the outcome.

To use the casino analogy a different way; Offense in football is like playing poker. If you have a skill advantage you want to play as many hands as possible. Your skill will win out. BUT in football you have to play defense and that is like having to stop playing poker and go over to play roulette. You can even be the house and get better odds if you have an elite defense but sooner or later, some stupid fucking tourist is going to hit on red 27 and you are going to have to pay.

You want to stay at the poker table as much as you can and stay away from the roulette table in the process.
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Luck is what happens when preparation meets opportunity.
 
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Jaxbuck said:
It’s a cute saying but random variance is random variance.

Springs Slips.

No way it’s smart to give the enemy more chances for that to happen. Play poker with your skill, avoid the roulette table as much as possible.
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You can possibly apply that to an individual action or occurrence, but if OSU was the better prepared team in 1996, a slip would have never mattered. Football is like life. If you set goals in life, and execute daily on the steps required to achieve those goals, you’re going to live your best possible life. If you go through life aimlessly, you believe in the boogeyman of luck. :sneaky:
 
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