2025 Cotton Bowl: #2 tOSU vs #10 Miami-FL, Wed 12/31 7:30 ET at JerryWorld

[Jaxbuck]

Ask the “Miracle on Ice“ crew if they got lucky. Make sure to wear a helmet when you ask. Every one of those guys has been crazy successful at life as well. I simply don’t believe in the concept of luck, as you’re defining/describing it. I’m probably the dum-dum, but I definitely appreciate the conversation.

I'm talking about the math of a single event(coin flip, throwing a pitch, a down of football), you are abstracting that out to a moral philosophy that a person uses to guide them through a lifetime (which I agree with btw).

It isn't about agency, which is what you mean when you say there is no such thing as luck, it's about random things happening that you cannot control which have a negative impact on the outcome and because there is a time limit, you can face catastrophic/total loss. You simply don't have any more time left to recover in the context of a game.

Your skill can be executed perfectly but the official can simply blow a call. That's random variance/"luck". It's out of your control.

 

[Telekinesis]

I'm talking about the math of a single event(coin flip, throwing a pitch, a down of football), you are abstracting that out to a moral philosophy that a person uses to guide them through a lifetime (which I agree with btw).

It isn't about agency, which is what you mean when you say there is no such thing as luck, it's about random things happening that you cannot control which have a negative impact on the outcome and because there is a time limit, you can face catastrophic/total loss. You simply don't have any more time left to recover in the context of a game.

Your skill can be executed perfectly but the official can simply blow a call. That's random variance/"luck". It's out of your control.

I agree, the ref should have called targeting when Marv took the shot to the head.

…but he didn’t, so Ohio State lost.

Hopefully during this playoff run, they leave no doubt and don’t allow it to come down to the luck of (or lack thereof) Fielding hitting the game winner.

Am I doing this right?

 

[Bill Lucas]

I agree, the ref should have called targeting when Marv took the shot to the head.

…but he didn’t, so Ohio State lost.

Hopefully during this playoff run, they leave no doubt and don’t allow it to come down to the luck of (or lack thereof) Fielding hitting the game winner.

Am I doing this right?

I'll add the bizarre change in coverage with a 14 point lead in the 4th quarter that lead to a very long TD pass.

 

[Jaxbuck]

I agree, the ref should have called targeting when Marv took the shot to the head.

…but he didn’t, so Ohio State lost.

Hopefully during this playoff run, they leave no doubt and don’t allow it to come down to the luck of (or lack thereof) Fielding hitting the game winner.

Am I doing this right?

It's more like I threw one pitch, right down the middle and the ump called it ball 4, guy walks and we lose.

Don't do the "yeah but you should have never been in that spot" stuff because those were previous events.

On that one event, skill + luck = bad outcome even though your skill was good (what you control).

So obviously in a game that has constraints you can manage to a degree, you don't want to manage in the direction of letting a lesser skilled opponent get more shots at random variance events at your expense.

Back to football, think of June Jones at Hawaii or Mike Leach and those air raid kind of teams. They were built to run as many plays as possible and get random variance to work for them because they knew they were the lesser skilled team.

It's why you never see teams run a hurry up with a lead or why, in the case of those extreme kind of system teams, they are screwed and have to keep doing it even with a lead and can't seem to ever hold those leads.

The best possible outcome for a more skilled team like OSU is a long time consuming drive that ends in a TD. You do that on 5 of your 10 possessions and in the process only let the opponent end up with ~8 possessions and you can see how the boa constrictor chokes out the lesser skilled team and why, back to the point of this conversation, you don't speed up as a general rule. You only do it in situational applications.

 

[Telekinesis]

It's more like I threw one pitch, right down the middle and the ump called it ball 4, guy walks and we lose.

Don't do the "yeah but you should have never been in that spot" stuff because those were previous events.

On that one event, skill + luck = bad outcome even though your skill was good (what you control).

So obviously in a game that has constraints you can manage to a degree, you don't want to manage in the direction of letting a lesser skilled opponent get more shots at random variance events at your expense.

Back to football, think of June Jones at Hawaii or Mike Leach and those air raid kind of teams. They were built to run as many plays as possible and get random variance to work for them because they knew they were the lesser skilled team.

It's why you never see teams run a hurry up with a lead or why, in the case of those extreme kind of system teams, they are screwed and have to keep doing it even with a lead and can't seem to ever hold those leads.

The best possible outcome for a more skilled team like OSU is a long time consuming drive that ends in a TD. You do that on 5 of your 10 possessions and in the process only let the opponent end up with ~8 possessions and you can see how the boa constrictor chokes out the lesser skilled team and why, back to the point of this conversation, you don't speed up as a general rule. You only do it in situational applications.

Got it, makes sense.

This is moving away from the topic at hand and just a general observation:

Unfortunately, we haven’t witnessed good results when dealing with situational applications. Day (or whoever we’re pinning it on this week) seems to end up out of character and doesn’t know how to handle that kind of pressure.

 

[brodybuck21]

 

[Jaxbuck]

Got it, makes sense.

This is moving away from the topic at hand and just a general observation:

Unfortunately, we haven’t witnessed good results when dealing with situational applications. Day (or whoever we’re pinning it on this week) seems to end up out of character and doesn’t know how to handle that kind of pressure.

Well that gets into why i question the speed up idea.

1) if you are already struggling with execution at anything (football, baseball, life) you don't go faster, you'll just make the same mistakes on higher volume.

2) we saw IU speed up a young QB for the first time all year and the results were predictably sub-great. Again, I question the tactical efficacy of that path.

3) Back to strategy and all we have been talking about-Be efficient on your 10 possessions, get your 35 points and in the process only give the other guy his 8-9 possessions and lower his spins of the wheel at your expense.

So I think we haven't seen Day do any of the situational applications of up tempo with the more skilled team because he knows (and only he would know) that the execution risk isn't worth it.

Going back to the IU game, it was execution, not pace that did us in and I'd bet a fair sum that the execution suffered more from Smith being banged up than we will ever know. IU did a great job on Sayin but he didn't have his monster at full strength either.

 

[Telekinesis]

Ryan Day Taking Over Play Calling As Brian Hartline Balances Upcoming Head Coaching Role With Wide Receiver Coaching Duties

Ryan Day is taking over Ohio State's play calling for the College Football Playoff, though it will remain a "group effort."

www.elevenwarriors.com

 

[scarletngray]

This is the right move. Glad Ryan made it early on.

 

[brodybuck21]

 

[MGMT]

I’m not being snide I am genuinely asking:

If you feel confident offensively , why?

Why do you feel anything will be different with the pass protection against a defensive line that might be better than IU’s?

Why do we feel like we are going yo
Score enough points to get this thing? What will suddenly be different about Sayin under pressure? Will he suddenly learn coverage identification in a couple weeks?

Does Day calling the offense suddenly make you feel better? Are we suffenlu
Going to stop 13-14 personnel in the red zone?

I’m not saying I don’t feel good about it but I’m trying to think about what’s going to just be suddenly sifferent and ultimately be the actual difference(s).

I dunno

 

[muffler dragon]

I think a game indoors with Smith and Tate at 100% should make the Buckeyes feel relatively confident regardless.

 

[Jaxbuck]

I’m not being snide I am genuinely asking:

If you feel confident offensively , why?

Why do you feel anything will be different with the pass protection against a defensive line that might be better than IU’s?

Why do we feel like we are going yo
Score enough points to get this thing? What will suddenly be different about Sayin under pressure? Will he suddenly learn coverage identification in a couple weeks?

Does Day calling the offense suddenly make you feel better? Are we suffenlu
Going to stop 13-14 personnel in the red zone?

I’m not saying I don’t feel good about it but I’m trying to think about what’s going to just be suddenly sifferent and ultimately be the actual difference(s).

I dunno

Both are good defenses but they get there in different ways and against OSU level offense those different ways matter. A lot.

IU removes your plan A, they constrict (especially in the RZ) and force you to play "left handed". That constriction is them compressing variance in their favor. They affect your structure.

Miami is the more traditional kind of defense that challenges your execution (my guy can beat your guy) and they play for events (sacks, turnovers, TFL). An elite, well coached offense will figure them out over the course of a game and exploit that.

Both are good but Miami isn't the same kind of threat.

 

[Telekinesis]

Well that gets into why i question the speed up idea.

1) if you are already struggling with execution at anything (football, baseball, life) you don't go faster, you'll just make the same mistakes on higher volume.

2) we saw IU speed up a young QB for the first time all year and the results were predictably sub-great. Again, I question the tactical efficacy of that path.

3) Back to strategy and all we have been talking about-Be efficient on your 10 possessions, get your 35 points and in the process only give the other guy his 8-9 possessions and lower his spins of the wheel at your expense.

So I think we haven't seen Day do any of the situational applications of up tempo with the more skilled team because he knows (and only he would know) that the execution risk isn't worth it.

Going back to the IU game, it was execution, not pace that did us in and I'd bet a fair sum that the execution suffered more from Smith being banged up than we will ever know. IU did a great job on Sayin but he didn't have his monster at full strength either.

I’d be curious to know where Smith is at currently. Don’t think we’ll hear the full truth one way or another, but I’m really hoping it’s closer to 100% than not.

 

[dragurd]

Both are good defenses but they get there in different ways and against OSU level offense those different ways matter. A lot.

IU removes your plan A, they constrict (especially in the RZ) and force you to play "left handed". That constriction is them compressing variance in their favor. They affect your structure.

Miami is the more traditional kind of defense that challenges your execution (my guy can beat your guy) and they play for events (sacks, turnovers, TFL). An elite, well coached offense will figure them out over the course of a game and exploit that.

Both are good but Miami isn't the same kind of threat.

My main question is does miami stunt a shit ton. We seem ok on straight up normal pass rushes but we have been pretty terrible at picking up stunts all year