2025 Cotton Bowl: #2 tOSU vs #10 Miami-FL, Wed 12/31 7:30 ET at JerryWorld

[Jaxbuck]

RB said it. But to answer your question of course I’d be okay with it if we were finishing drives with 7. However our red zone issues as RB pointed out can backfire if we are getting nothing at the end of a drive. With this offense I would think we would want as many cracks at a team as we can get if we aren’t going to be efficient.

The longer a game goes where it’s 3-0 or 7-0 or 10-6 at half time the more it benefits the other team. All it takes is one busted coverage at its 13-10.

We have a defense that hasn’t given up 17 all year. Force a team to do something we have prevented all year. Surely that’s not by scoring 10-17 points ourselves. We have too many explosive play makers to slow play it.

I love this approach vs Ohio, Purdue, UCLA, and Rutgers.

But I want to see the offense that took the field vs Tennessee, Oregon, UGA, Clemson etc. Go up 14-0 in the first and watch a team panic themselves into a crimson avalanche

Well to the first point you are correct, finish a drive with points is better than ending a drive with no points, I'm sure most people would agree with that.

The rest of what you are describing is an execution failure, not a failure due to pace. Each team is going to get ~10-12 possessions per game. The opportunity to execute your offense and score 27+ points isn't constrained by going at a slower pace. It's constrained by your execution.

So a 3-0 game is a higher risk to go against you, again you've picked up on the risk element of the opponent getting lucky while on offense but if you were efficient in your use of the 10-12 possessions you wouldn't have only 3 points.

If the logic doesn't make sense to you go look up the stats. The correlation between numbers of plays and scoring is low, something like .20 ish, the correlation between efficiency (EPA) and scoring is very high, something like .70ish.

Going faster while struggling with execution is the exact recipe to give your opponent more opportunity to beat you.

 

[Captain Buckeye]

Well to the first point you are correct, finish a drive with points is better than ending a drive with no points, I'm sure most people would agree with that.

The rest of what you are describing is an execution failure, not a failure due to pace. Each team is going to get ~10-12 possessions per game. The opportunity to execute your offense and score 27+ points isn't constrained by going at a slower pace. It's constrained by your execution.

So a 3-0 game is a higher risk to go against you, again you've picked up on the risk element of the opponent getting lucky while on offense but if you were efficient in your use of the 10-12 possessions you wouldn't have only 3 points.

If the logic doesn't make sense to you go look up the stats. The correlation between numbers of plays and scoring is low, something like .20 ish, the correlation between efficiency (EPA) and scoring is very high, something like .70ish.

Going faster while struggling with execution is the exact recipe to give your opponent more opportunity to beat you.

With the defense we have it’s a fair trade off for an offense that maybe needs more opportunities. Maybe the inefficiencies continue but then again maybe our defensive dominance continues too.

We’ll see what we do though. I think the best answer is probably in the middle. Certainly isn’t running hurry up all game but I don’t think these 8 minute drives are necessarily the answer either.

Will be interesting to see if we change our personnel approach in the red zone too. Also we don’t throw jump balls to JJ as much as you’d think either.

 

[1926Buckeyes]

A little off topic but I genuinely don't understand why people are so frightened of UGA. They've looked like world beaters in exactly two games. Part of me wonders if they don't lose to Ole Miss. Their last game was close at Athens.

Talent, Kirby, and people still fearing their past teams. I also think they’re very balanced, and Ole Miss’ defense is worse.

Well to the first point you are correct, finish a drive with points is better than ending a drive with no points, I'm sure most people would agree with that.

 

[Jaxbuck]

With the defense we have it’s a fair trade off for an offense that maybe needs more opportunities. Maybe the inefficiencies continue but then again maybe our defensive dominance continues too.

This is the exact "logic" a bad gambler falls into and starts making more bets when he's losing. "I just need more opportunities to overcome bad luck"

There is no way to equivocate on this, if you are having execution problems, doing it on volume is not a good idea.

 

[dragurd]

Talent, Kirby, and people still fearing their past teams. I also think they’re very balanced, and Ole Miss’ defense is worse.

Ehh? I'm not sure their passing game is very good. The QB completion numbers look great but the yardage is low. Which means he's throwing a lot of short high percentage passes

 

[scarletngray]

We have to change what we are doing in the red zone. Scheme wise, personnel wise and execution wise. We can't settle for FGs. Especially when they are missed. Score TD's. Somehow, some way, score TDs and the game won't be close.

 

[Gunlife]

Ehh? I'm not sure their passing game is very good. The QB completion numbers look great but the yardage is low. Which means he's throwing a lot of short high percentage passes

All I will say is this. You are not beating this OSU team without a QB that can consistently make small window throws. So if Mendoza is the only one capable I feel great about going back to back

 

[Captain Buckeye]

This is the exact "logic" a bad gambler falls into and starts making more bets when he's losing. "I just need more opportunities to overcome bad luck"

There is no way to equivocate on this, if you are having execution problems, doing it on volume is not a good idea.

Well no… if the averages hold we aren’t a terrible offense we just struggle in the red zone. Who knows what that answer is for the red zone but even so we are in the top 50 for red zone anyway. Using your analogy if we knew we won our share of the time (which this offense does) you’d certainly want to play it right because if you do you’ll win more often than not.

If the goal is to get to 21 which will likely be enough the rest of the way. Then we need to do either 1 of 3 things. We need to be more explosive to avoid the red zone all together, we need to have more possessions so we can get to this magic 21 point total, or figure out how to be more efficient.

Avoiding the red zone all together would be ideal but if not then hedge your bets. Get the ball to the players most likely to score which certainly isn’t playing 4 TE.

All this to say I doubt we keep doing what we did all year in the red zone. If we do then we are asking for it that’s for sure. Having JJ and Tate is like having two pocket aces.

 

[Thump]

Will be a battle.

 

[OregonBuckeye]

Will be a battle.

I'm thinking so too

 

[Captain Buckeye]

I think that’s way you should view the game or you’ll be disappointed if it’s not.

But I do not expect this game to be close.

Bucks 35-Miami 17

 

[MGMT]

I hope Day and Sayin spent a lot of time watching the offensive film from the IU game because Bain is game wrecker by all accounts. If Sayin isn’t getting rid of the ball quickly and decisively it’s going to be a huge issue and I think we will see a similar outing to IU.

Give me some fucking screens and intermediate routes. You have all the offensive talent in the world, let them make plays. I’m going to be screaming and the policy will likely get dispatched to my residence if every pass play called is a long developing deep routes off play action. Get the fucking ball out.

I’m very confident in Patricia mitigating Toney and confusing Beck.

 

[Onebuckfan]

My theory is score TDs 2 min or 8 min. If your Defense only goes on the field after TDs you’d have to feel good.

 

[Jaxbuck]

Well no… if the averages hold we aren’t a terrible offense we just struggle in the red zone.

Where did I ever say we are a terrible offense? The offense wobbled against IU and wasn't as efficient as it normally is. That caused a bad result. The number of opportunities was not the issue, it was execution of the opportunities they had. Process was good, result just turned out bad.

Who knows what that answer is for the red zone but even so we are in the top 50 for red zone anyway. Using your analogy if we knew we won our share of the time (which this offense does) you’d certainly want to play it right because if you do you’ll win more often than not.

Offense is linear, if you have a per play advantage then more plays is good. Unfortunately the other side of the ball, defense is not linear, more reps for opponent offense is more chance for variance to bite your defense. I don't know how else to say it so you can understand it.

If it was poker, and you had a skill advantage you want more hands per hour so your advantage gets maximum leverage. It isn't poker, when you have to play defense in football, the opponent gets an odds boost no matter how good your defense is.

If you want an analogy; I am telling you that craps is the game in the casino that has the best odds for you as a player. You still want to go play roulette because you can get more spins in per hour.

If the goal is to get to 21 which will likely be enough the rest of the way. Then we need to do either 1 of 3 things. We need to be more explosive to avoid the red zone all together, we need to have more possessions so we can get to this magic 21 point total, or figure out how to be more efficient.

You are again conflating outcome with process. Efficient is the key, 21 points is a result. More possessions does not help if you are not efficient in the first place, you are voluntarily taking the worst odds and giving your opponent a chance to posses the ball more. Again, when making mistakes, don't go faster. Slow down, fix your execution errors and then more possessions (not plays) helps.

Avoiding the red zone all together would be ideal but if not then hedge your bets. Get the ball to the players most likely to score which certainly isn’t playing 4 TE.

All this to say I doubt we keep doing what we did all year in the red zone. If we do then we are asking for it that’s for sure. Having JJ and Tate is like having two pocket aces.

These are all ideas on how to be more efficient and score. Now you are on the right track...process, not results.

 

[Drubuck]

Fuck Miami.