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2024 Season: Are You Ready For Some Football?

2024 Season Preview: Five Bold Predictions for the Ohio State Football Season

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Hola amigos, I know it's been a long time since I rapped at ya but I'm back for another slate of Buckeye football, starting off with my annual bold predictions for the upcoming season.

While I've been absent from 11W in digital print since the conclusion of spring practice, I've been rolling with Jason, along with Ramzy and Jones, on the Eleven Warriors (YouTube) Show, thus paying close attention to the men of the scarlet and gray as Ryan Day's squad preps for a natty or bust campaign.

Of course that probably won't help with the accuracy of my annual bold predictions column but hey, go big or go home. Nobody wants to beat their chest next January after proclaiming in August that "Caleb Downs will be good."

That said, let's get to it. Here are my five bold predictions for the 2024 Ohio State football season.

OHIO STATE'S DEFENSE RANKS TOP-10 NATIONALLY IN TACKLES FOR LOSS PER GAME​

OHIO STATE'S DEFENSE RANKS IN THE TOP-10 NATIONALLY IN TOTAL INTERCEPTIONS​

EMEKA EGBUKA GOES OVER 1,000 FOR THE SEASON, SETS ALL-TIME SCHOOL RECEIVING YARDS RECORD​

JAMES PEOPLES* AND JAYLEN MCCLAIN EMERGE AS TOP OFFENSIVE AND DEFENSIVE TRUE FRESHMEN (*FRESHMAN NOT NAMED JEREMIAH SMITH)​

OHIO STATE BEATS MICHIGAN BY AT LEAST 14 POINTS EN ROUTE TO THE NATIONAL TITLE​

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Three bold predictions for the Ohio State football season

With the Ohio State football team about to start their season next weekend, we give you some bold predictions for how the season plays out.

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The Ohio State football team will finally be playing football in under a week. It has been a long offseason full of change and motivation. With how badly last season finished, the Buckeyes are looking to win the Big Ten and win a national championship this year.

Ohio State starts the season ranked second in both polls. Only Georgia is ranked higher than them to start the year. They quite possibly have the best defense in the country. It's going to be hard for opposing teams to move the ball on them all year.

Offensively, the team should be better now that they have Will Howard leading the program at quarterback. He should be a slight upgrade over Kyle McCord. The Buckeyes also still have the best group of receivers in the country. Still, we aren't sure how the offensive line is going to perform.

With the season about to start, it's time to start giving some bold predictions for the season. It's always fun to see if these end up panning out or if they are completely wrong. This year, the predictions get more fun because this team is under an enormous amount of pressure.

The first prediction has to do with the defense.

1. Ohio State's defense will force 20+ turnovers this season

2. The Ohio State football team will go undefeated and win the Big Ten

3. The Ohio State football team wins all of their CFP games by at least 14 points en route to a national championship

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2024 Season Preview: Creating Over/Unders and Predicting Results for Ohio State's Team Total

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How much will the Buckeyes improve statistically from 2023 to this season?

Ohio State has plenty of playmakers on both sides of the ball, with a number of its units ranking among the best in the country entering the 2024 season. The defense could be the best in the country, the offense could be Ryan Day's first run-first offense since taking over for Urban Meyer in 2019, and the national award watch list candidates take more than two hands to count. Altogether, the Buckeyes are stacked in almost all areas of the field on both sides of the ball, hence the reason OSU is considered a national championship frontrunner entering the 2024 season.

With that, we came up with over/unders for plenty of different team totals both on offense and defense that we believe could realistically go either way – and predict whether the Buckeyes will hit the respective overs in each category.

(Note: Given the expanded playoff and the fact that OSU's season could be between 13 and 17 games this season, these numbers are just for the 12 regular-season games).
Ohio State's Regular Season Team Props
Prop Over/Under Prediction
Points Per Game 41.5 Over
Rushing Touchdowns 38.5 Over
Passing Touchdowns 33.5 Under
Passing Yards Per Game 294.5 Under
Rushing Yards Per Game 266.5 Over
Yards Per Carry 5.59 Over
Third-Down Conversion Rate 50% Over
Red-Zone Touchdown Rate 70% Over
Points Allowed Per Game 11 Under
Sacks 39.5 Under
Tackles For Loss 98.5 Under
Opponent Third-Down Conversion Rate 27% Under
Interceptions 14 Under
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Presser Bullets: Chip Kelly in Booth for 2024, Ryan Day Does Not Plan to Watch Netflix's Connor Stalions Documentary​


Ryan Day​

  • Ryan Day started his press conference by naming Tegra Tshabola the team's starting right guard. "Tegra has earned the right to start." Ohio State will roll players at the position though, he added.
  • Sonny Styles will start at Will linebacker. "Sonny has separated himself for sure and will start at Will linebacker."
  • On what he wants to see from Will Howard Week 1: "We want him to run the team and be clean. ... Be sharp, take care of the football. ... In particular, in that first game, it's run a clean operation. It's taking care of the football, it's cadence."
  • On the offensive line depth: "Early on the little illness that was going around the offensive line was frustrating, but coming out of preseason camp we feel like we built some depth because we have to. ... We are going to try and get as many guys in the game as possible, grade it and keep evaluating."
  • Tshabola's experience and reps
  • Running backs coach Carlos Locklyn hasn't decided who will start at running back, though the tandem of TreVeyon Henderson and Quinshon Judkins will each get plenty of carries, as will freshman James Peoples.
  • Day confirmed that Peoples is Ohio State's third running back. "He's gonna play a bunch of snaps."
  • On the impact of iPads on the sideline: "I think the communication in-game will be very, very important in identifying what's been going on the last series. ... You have an ability to tag certain plays on your side of the ball. ... You're going to see a little bit more in-game adjustments than maybe previously. But other than that, football is football."
  • Howard's done a great job shouldering the expectations that come with Ohio State, Day said. "He's put a lot of work in this preseason. ... He's got a good look in his eye this week and he's ready to get out there."
  • Devin Brown is Ohio State's backup quarterback, Day said.
  • Ryan Day wants to establish a hard-playing identity from the first game of the year. "If our identity is going to be the hardest-playing team in the country, we've gotta really put that on film."
  • On the approach to the first three "You have to really focus on the process of it and what are we doing. Our opponent should matter (in how we prepare). What is the standard? Grade over 80% and be the hardest-playing team in the country. ... You're not allowed to have a bad day around here. You're not allowed."
  • Day pointed to the legacy of Archie Griffin in reflecting on how his team has impacted the community this offseason. "I think this team is close. When you look at what they've done together as a group, it's powerful. ... You're seeing things like this and some of the community outreach ... these are great, great people."
  • Quality control coach Rob Keys will oversee Ohio State's special teams with Day, while each assistant is assigned a unit. Safeties coach Matt Guerrieri will be on punt, linebackers coach james Laurinaitis on kickoff with Brian Hartline and Keenan Bailey manning both return units. Each assistant is involved in special teams, Day said.
  • On general manager Mark Pantoni: "His role has increased and it's become more and more important and I think he's the best at what he does."
  • Chip Kelly will be in the coach's box on gameday, Day said.
  • Jeremiah Smith will start at wide receiver on Saturday.
  • Day said the offense isn't near where he expects it to get to, but there have been encouraging signs. "We'll see after the first couple of games. ... I do feel like we've had some really good days of practices, we've had a couple of really good moments in some scrimmages."
  • More on Howard: "This is just the beginning, but he wants to be a great player. And he knows that if he buys into this offense, buys into this culture, buys into this team, he's going to do that."
  • Helmet communication will mostly be between Kelly and Howard, Day said.
  • Day does not plan to watch Netflix's documentary on Connor Stalions..... :lol:
  • "Leave no doubt" is the team's main slogan entering 2024. "Leave no doubt is something that when you look back at where we've been ... you can't leave it to one drive. You can't leave it to one play. You can't. You have to leave no doubt. ... We have to do that. That's probably the one this year that we've grabbed onto the most."
  • On the pricetag of Ohio State's roster: "They're here because they want to be Buckeyes. They're here to win championships. They're here for each other."

Jim Knowles​

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Will Howard​

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See article for Jim Knowles and Will Howard's comments.

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The Buckeyes need to create an early, aggressive and overwhelming cushion in all three of their early games - let's say 35 points by halftime. All starters out of the game - offensive linemen included - by the open of the 4th quarter.

It's not about the point spread - it's about sustainability and avoiding any possibility of entering 2025 saying things like "uh, we need to see what these guys can do" nope, that's what the first three games on this schedule were tailored to deliver. Use them wisely.

Here's a tracker, we'll fill this out over the next few weeks.

OPEN SEASON SUSTAINABILITY TRACKER
OPPONENT GOAL 1H MARGIN ACTUAL 1H MARGIN GOAL PARTICIPATION ACTUAL PARTICIPATION SNAP CAP ACTUAL CAP
AKRON 35 TBD 65 TBD 48 TBD
WESTERN MICHIGAN 35 TBD 65 TBD 48 TBD
MARSHALL 35 TBD 65 TBD 48 TBD

This is a finger-in-the-air directional trend for sustainability. Ohio State should a) be up by 35 at half in each of its first three games b) get 65 guys into each game, with no road games or limited roster restrictions in play, and c) have no player getting more than 48 snaps on any side of the ball.

It's not a pass/fail exercise. It's just that the 2023 starters were kept in their run-up-the-score games far longer than they should have been, and part of that was the consequence of last year's starting quarterback possessing a maddening, chronic inability to perform at a serviceable level until after halftime.

Smelling salts? Marching band music? No one knows. And thankfully, nobody needs to care.
 
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Quick Hits: Ohio State Captains Discuss Leadership, High Expectations Entering 2024 Season​



“That meant everything to me, it's one of the most special moments of my life. It's something that I've dreamt of since I committed here.”– Jack Sawyer on being named a captain



“It’s been great. He’s a hard worker, man. He comes in (and is) trying to get better each and every day. We’re pushing each other, encouraging each other. I’m thankful he’s here. Playing alongside him, such a great player, a great person.”– TreVeyon Henderson on life with Quinshon Judkins as his teammate



“Coming full circle, it is a really surreal moment to be in my senior year playing against the people I got my first catch against.”– Emeka Egbuka, whose first career catch came against Akron in 2021



“He’s super smart. Like I was telling you earlier, his football IQ is super high. It’s just another coach on the field, pretty much.”– Cody Simon on what Caleb Downs’ presence does for him as a mLB
 
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2024 Season Preview: Creating Over/Unders and Predicting Results for Ohio State's Team Total

148423_h.jpg

How much will the Buckeyes improve statistically from 2023 to this season?

Ohio State has plenty of playmakers on both sides of the ball, with a number of its units ranking among the best in the country entering the 2024 season. The defense could be the best in the country, the offense could be Ryan Day's first run-first offense since taking over for Urban Meyer in 2019, and the national award watch list candidates take more than two hands to count. Altogether, the Buckeyes are stacked in almost all areas of the field on both sides of the ball, hence the reason OSU is considered a national championship frontrunner entering the 2024 season.

With that, we came up with over/unders for plenty of different team totals both on offense and defense that we believe could realistically go either way – and predict whether the Buckeyes will hit the respective overs in each category.

(Note: Given the expanded playoff and the fact that OSU's season could be between 13 and 17 games this season, these numbers are just for the 12 regular-season games).
Ohio State's Regular Season Team Props
Prop Over/Under Prediction
Points Per Game 41.5 Over
Rushing Touchdowns 38.5 Over
Passing Touchdowns 33.5 Under
Passing Yards Per Game 294.5 Under
Rushing Yards Per Game 266.5 Over
Yards Per Carry 5.59 Over
Third-Down Conversion Rate 50% Over
Red-Zone Touchdown Rate 70% Over
Points Allowed Per Game 11 Under
Sacks 39.5 Under
Tackles For Loss 98.5 Under
Opponent Third-Down Conversion Rate 27% Under
Interceptions 14 Under
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I created prop bets for these stats in the Sportsbook.
 
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Here are all the news and notes from The Ryan Day Radio Show:

Ryan Day​

On Ohio State's mindset entering the Akron game​

  • "We want to start fast. We want to start the season off on the right foot. It's been a long time to get to this game. It's been a good preseason."
  • "Preseason had to be physical, had to be hard. I think it was."
  • "Everybody is fired up to play on Saturday."

On the urgency Ohio State possesses this season​

  • "After Saturday, we'll have 11 regular-season games. ... We are gonna respect every single opponent we play. It's about the standard we set. ... We want to be the hardest-playing team in the country."
  • "There's adversity coming. That's the way football is."
  • "You want to start (the season) fast but also finish strong."

On building depth early in the preseason​

  • Day said Ohio State has made it a point to get backups in the game for as many reps as possible on Saturday.
  • "We're gonna try to play as many guys as we can."
  • "That's a focus for us in the first half of the season. We want to build depth."

On the importance of building depth​

  • "The depth. The depth. The depth. We got to work it. Guys have got to step up in a big way."
  • "It starts on special teams. ... You have to cut your teeth there."
  • "You never know when your number is gonna get called. We got to put guys in those situations so when they're called, they're ready to go."

On Zen Michalski and George Fitzpatrick​

  • "We need both of those guys to continue to get better."
  • "I think they both had good preseasons."

On Ohio State's wide receiver depth​

  • "Yeah, I think there's depth at receiver. I think Brian (Hartline) has done a nice job at four, five, six and trying to build there."
  • "We need all those guys to make an impact on the game."
  • Day said Jayden Ballard, Kojo Antwi, Mylan Graham and David Adolph must continue to improve as the season progresses.

On Jeremiah Smith​

  • "The thing that strikes me is the maturity."
  • "He's a very serious person. When it's time to compete, he competes. When it's time to get into a meeting, he does that."
  • "What we've seen in practice is a mature young man who brings a high upside."

On Will Howard​

  • "Will has command. You feel it when you are on the field."
  • "Having the huddle now is great. ... It's given the quarterback the chance to command the offense, and I think Will has done that."
  • Day said he looks forward to the positives that can come from Ohio State huddling after plays. He said the Buckeyes will still look to change the tempo in different ways.

On TreVeyon Henderson and Quinshon Judkins​

  • "Both bring different things to the table, but both are very, very talented. ... They know they need each other."
  • Day said Ohio State has seen James Peoples step up in preseason camp. "We're gonna need him as well. We know that."
  • Day complimented running backs coach Carlos Locklyn for building relationships with each of his running backs. Day said Locklyn brings energy to the Ohio State offense in practice.
  • On how Ohio State plans to split carries between Henderson and Judkins: "There will be plenty of carries to go around. ... They want to win."
  • Day called Henderson and Judkins' talent, combined with Will Howard's ability to run the football, "a game changer" for the Ohio State offense.

On Ohio State's defensive line​

  • "You got to win the line of scrimmage."
  • "We feel like we've built some depth, in particular at defensive end."
  • "Great opportunity to get started here, but the defensive line has looked strong all offseason. They're the tone setters."
  • "It all starts at the line of scrimmage."

On Tyleik Williams and Ty Hamilton​

  • "Both guys have had great offseasons."
  • "Ty Hamilton put another strong offseason together. I'm excited to see him get on the field."
  • Day said Williams did "a great job with his hands" last season as he created havoc on the defensive line.
  • "Tyleik and Ty are leading the way inside."

On Ohio State's defensive line and defensive backs working together​

  • "Everybody works together. For the defense, Jim Knowles talks a lot about the coverage and the rush working together."
  • Day said "I think you're seeing both" the defensive line help the defensive backs and vice versa in preseason camp. "It works together hand in hand."

On Ohio State developing a routine in the preseason​

  • "I think everybody likes a routine. Certainly, football players and coaches like a routine. We have to find a routine."
  • Day said Ohio State attempts to build a routine once classes start. The Buckeyes have practice on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday, a walkthrough on Friday and then a simulated scrimmage on Saturday. Day said Ohio State does this so they can enter Week 1 of the season feeling likit'sts Week 2.

On Cody Simon​

  • "He is a leader."
  • "The feedback we got back about Cody in those tough workouts, those hard days, he was strong. He was a leader."
  • Day said he made a rule that coaches could no longer ask Simon questions in meetings because he always gave them the correct answers. Day said he wanted coaches to challenge other players to make sure they were paying attention and had "done their homework."

On Ohio State's pregame routine​

  • Day said Ohio State will not stay at the Blackwell Hotel before home games this season. "We're gonna be staying downtown." Because of that, Day said the Buckeyes will be dropped off in front of St. John Arena before the Skull Session.
  • Day said Ohio State will no longer wear suits to games. Day said he and the team's leaders wanted each Buckeye to look the same entering the stadium, so each Buckeye will wear team-issued sweatsuits while walking through the Skull Session and to Ohio Stadium.

On the legacy Ohio State's players want to leave behind​

  • "These guys love being Ohio State Buckeyes."
  • "They want to win in the worst way."
  • "They want to make an impact."
  • Day said his team feels the legacy Archie Griffin has created himself in Columbus and wants to honor that legacy by creating one of their own as members of the Buckeyes.

On Ohio State scoring a kick return touchdown in 2024​

  • "I'm gonna guarantee one this year. I'll put that out there. How 'bout that?" Day said with a laugh.

Ross Bjork​

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Presser Bullets: Ryan Day Says Donovan Jackson and Cody Simon "Day-to-Day" After Missing Week 1, Wants to See More Consistency Despite Some "Good Snaps" in Running Game​

Ryan Day​

  • Day said it will be important for those who graded out champions against Akron to continue enhancing their play, and those who didn't to figure out why and make the necessary adjustments. "We're nowhere near where we need to be."
  • On the status of Simon and Jackson: "They're day-to-day right now. ... Had a good weekend."
  • On the helmet communication: "It's different. A lot more teams are huddling in Week 1 which I thought would be the case. ... I think it's a hybrid (between huddle and no-huddle)."
  • Day said there's a lot of playoff analytics the team looks at to show the value of every play. "I think every little bit is going to matter. Whether you're a top-four seed or 5, 6, 7, 8. ... We control our own destiny in terms of every game that we play ... I just want guys to know when they go into a game that every rep matters."
  • On the run game and run blocking: "There was good snaps, there was some plays where we got to the perimeter, we can maybe make that guy miss a couple times. ... There were some good things as the game went on, but we've got to continue to improve."
  • On Brandon Inniss being more aggressive on punt return: "We worked hard in this offseason on special teams. ... One of the studies that we did, every time the ball hits the ground on a turf field, there's an average of 10 yards of roll. ... The first thing we've got to get the ball back ... the second thing we've got to do is field it."
  • Howard worked hard on his scramble ability this offseason, Day said. "He's big in the pocket but he also has speed. ... When you can steal a couple third-downs in the game on scrambles, that makes a huge difference."
  • On how he assesses the tight ends: "I thought they, as a group, blocked well. I think we had two champions there. There's gotta be more production out of the room going forward. ... Couple of really good effort clips, in particular Will Kacmarek blocking his man 7 yards down the field and pancaking him."
  • Day added that Saturday was a big day for Jelani Thurman.
  • On Arvell Reese: "The way that Arvell played, he deserves more reps, but I think it has to do with his preparation. ... There was a point in the week where he dug in and did a really good job with his preparation. ... He had to prepare at a high level, and once you do that, then the game can slow down for you. I mean, you see the athletic ability. ... Any coach in America would love to have someone like that."
  • On the operation of play calling: "It was a start, long way to go. ... We still want to be clean across the board, couple little penalties here and there that we've got to clean up."
  • Day felt more freedom on the field with play calling off his plate, allowing him to be there more for the defense and special teams.
  • On the biggest points of emphasis this week: "It's so many things across the board, it's not just one area. ... Each guy has their things that they need to improve on. I'm not gonna get into all the details of it, but a bunch of little things across the board. ... The foundation hasn't been built."
  • On Austin Siereveld's play: "He looked like a first-time starter in there who has real potential. Has power has strength. ... Once he got his feet underneath him, he played great. ... Even if Donnie is healthy, you'd like to see him get in there and get some reps. ... But he needs to keep playing."
  • Day said his role in play calling offensively and defensively is to communicate what everyone is seeing on the field to Jim Knowles and Kelly in the booth.
  • On Howard handling in-helmet communication: "To have a voice in your head is something to get used to. ... The good thing is, you can tell him why you called it. You can make sure he understands the situation."
  • On what surprised him in a good way and what needs worked on: "I think the punt return was better. ... I thought the kick return could have been better. ... We would have liked to have gotten off to a faster start."

Chip Kelly​

  • On Howard's scrambling ability: "If you had watched him at K-State, you would have obviously seen that he can make plays with his arm and his legs. ... He's a versatile guy."
  • Kelly said that Ohio State isn't waiting to "unveil" any concepts against future opponents. "That's the game plan that we put together to go against Akron. ... We were probably a little bit shaky early. ... You could start to see a rhythm developing there. ... Starting to get some consistent runs and consistent pass plays."
  • Kelly said it's the first time he coached from the box since 2008. He got settled in and familiar with being in the press box in practice.
  • Kelly said that Day had a lot of input on offense on Saturday, but also a lot of input on defense and special teams. "He really contributed a lot on Saturday offensively."
  • On how Tegra Tshabola and Austin Siereveld performed at guard. "I thought they both did a really good job for their first extensive playing time there. ... It was a lot of guys' first time stepping on the field in the Horseshoe. ... I think once those guys got settled, we started to get into a pretty good rhythm."
  • On Jeremiah Smith: "I've been around here since March and he's been doing a lot of really, really good things. ... Besides the first drop, I thought the rest of the game he played really, really well."
  • On using the tush-push-style quarterback sneak in short-yardage: "As long as we continue to stay above 90%, then we'll continue to do it."
  • Kelly pushed back on some of the praise he received from Day for his play calling after Saturday's game. "You've gotta be really self-aware when you're done. So to go four plays and out to start, that's not good. ... There's always things you can do better. You're always going to be critical. And it's about execution."
  • On whether he has different play calls in mind for TreVeyon Henderson and Quinshon Judkins: "We really don't. I really feel like both those guys can run between the tackles ... but they both have speed and get to the perimeter. ... I think with both those guys, you can call the same game plan. I think James Peoples falls into the same category."
See link for Will Howard's comments and all three videos.
 
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Ryan Day Credits New Pregame Routine with Minimizing Distractions for Ohio State Before Home Games

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Ryan Day believes Ohio State’s new pregame routine helped the Buckeyes minimize distractions before their season opener.

The news drew mixed reactions last week when Day announced on his weekly radio show that the team would stay at a hotel downtown rather than the Blackwell Inn, the on-campus hotel where the team previously stayed before games, on Friday nights before home games this season.
Additionally, Ohio State decided that all players would wear team-issued sweatsuits for their arrival to the stadium this season rather than getting their own suits for gamedays.

One week into the new routine, however, Day believes the changes have been positive for his team.

“We talked about it as a staff and the Blackwell is great, it has been unbelievable for us, but not being right there on campus, it's just a little bit less of a distraction,” Day said of staying downtown during this week’s radio show. “It’s just a little bit more quiet, we're kind of by ourselves a little bit, and I think that helped us. Hopefully it will continue to move forward.

“And the whole deal with the sweatsuits and all that is just one less thing for our guys to worry about. I don't want them to have to worry about ties and what they're wearing and all these different things. (Equipment director) Kevin Ries will get you your sweatsuit, make sure everyone's zipped up and looking the same. We want to look exactly the same across the board and be a team. But it's also one less thing I don't need any of these guys to worry about. I want them to worry about playing really, really fast and violent on Saturday night.”

Because they stayed downtown, the team’s bus drove through campus on their way to St. John Arena to participate in the pregame Skull Session before walking over to the stadium. Day thought that drive provided a different perspective of Ohio State’s gameday atmosphere than that which the team has experienced staying at the Blackwell in past years.

“We actually went down towards all the Greeks (fraternity and sorority houses on campus), kind of going through in the morning, and kind of went through campus a little bit, which was neat,” Day said. “Our guys get a chance to see what game day is like as you're driving through campus and as people are getting ready for the game, so that was a unique experience that we hadn't experienced before – I hadn't experienced that before – because it’s always been right at the Blackwell. So to see it all, that was unique.”
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