So I've had some spare time being that I was able to jet out of work early and golf isn't a thing anymore.
Follow along and hear me out on this, because it took a 2nd wind.
Can't remember whom here posted it, but made mention about using this ill begotten intel mostly in the 2nd half... only after confirming it's accuracy through the 1st half. Granted, what I'm about to do I absolutely breezed through and it's rather 'cosmetic'. There are multiple other metrics that could be included to paint a more much in-depth picture. But, as a first layer metric, it does raise eye brows.
I grabbed games with teams OOC, ranked in the top 50, certain games with "lesser" opponents in between ranked for that classic 'trap' effect, over the course of 2015-2016. Then 2018-2019. And finally 2021-2022. The reason behind that was to see two year data between squads that went young to upper class, then upper class to young.
2015: (NPD = Net point differential. 2nd half total points scored minus points given up)
1-0 games with a 2nd half 2+ score point differential.
0-2 with games down 1 score at half.
1-1 with games up 1 score at half
1-3 in games within a score at half.
-6 total NPD 2nd half on season
2016:
1 game with 2nd half 2+ score point differential 1-0
2-2 up one score at half
1-0 up 2+ scores at half
.500 in games within a score at half.
-3 total NPD 2nd half on season
Dude was up at half in every game I charted that season. This is where some of the cries up in Ann Arbor started to become a bit audible.
2018:
2-0 Up 2+ scores at half
0-1 down 2+ scores at half
2-1 up 1 score at half
+44 total NPD 2nd half on season. Now this was the Senior defensive laden "Revenge Tour" squad. So the 2nd half positive was not of a surprise to me. This is where you heard "year 4, he can't get it done against the big boys" At this point he had a full frosh to senior recruiting cycle. Seat is warm. But at least he's above .500 in one score games at half.
2019:
0-3 in games down 2+ scores at half
2-0 in games up 2+ scores at half
1-0 in games down 1 score at half
1-0 in games up 1 score at half
+18 total NPD 2nd half on season
So he's a .500 coach in games that are within a score at half to this point. Good news is, he had more games decided by double digit scores that season. 2-3 in them total. So he was either winning by double digits, losing by them, and having one only close game either way. Seat is Muy Caliente at this point with active calls from boosters and alumni to get him out.
2021 rolls along.
1-1 in games up 2+ scores at half
4-0 in games up (within) 1 score at half
+53 total NPD 2nd half on season
In 2022
4-0 in games up (within) 1 score at half
1-0 in games down 1 score at half
+86 total NPD 2nd half on season......
This is where it gets interesting. Not a once in the games that I went over was scUM down within 1 score at half in 2021. Even more strange, here are the 2nd half differentials from the games where they were up 1 score or less at half.
+18 vs Wisky
+3 vs PSU
+23 vs NU
+14 vs tOSU
In 2022 they posted NPD in the one score games of...
+3
+22
+16
+20
+25
That is two seasons worth of outliers from Harbaugh. Went back to check out Stanford.
2007 stanford
1-3 games within 1 score at half
0-1 games down 2+ scores at half
2008 stanford
1-4 games within 1 score at half
2009 stanford
3-0 games 2+ scores
1-1 games within 1 score
2010
2-1 games within 1 score
In 2009 and 2010 Harbaugh had future #1 overall Andrew Luck. In 2021 and 2022 the dude had Cade McNamara and JJ McCarthy. Now JJ is being hailed as a potential day 2 pick, but I don't think anyone is confusing him as the next Andrew Luck. This season alone the guy is 2-0 in games within 1 score at half with a total NPD of +34. That includes goosing the two other teams in the 2nd half in both games.
Again, this is not scientific method, it wasn't a complete apples to apples as I picked a sort of random bag of games that felt significant and not significant. But in one score games the last 2 seasons that I checked, they've not been outscored in the 2nd half ..... not a once. Harbaugh went from a .500ish coach in close games without first round talent, to not losing a single one score game at the half for the past 2 seasons. Even funnier, only 2 of those 9 games were they held within a one score differential of the other team.
In one score games they came out after halftime and blew the doors off everyone, both on offense AND defense for two & half seasons now.
So either the man has just turned the corner completely and the talent is THAT good, or there is some serious fuckery about.
