It will be getting knocked off by a mid major in a meaningless Bowl game. Added to Day's big game woes, it will certainly hurt recruiting if nothing else.
But winning over Louisville, in Miami no less, might help that Florida recruiting?
Then I'll continue to circle back around until someone can answer this question... how is that 'meaningless'? Not looking to start an argument, but every time I've seen someone use that word, it always seems associated with a contradiction. If something can help you, although it might come with a serious risk, then it isn't meaningless. It's just a gamble with a higher risk. I'd venture we should call it that.
And we're free to debate the merits of how, or if, that gamble should be taken all day.
People bemoan NIL, the portal, and conference realignment as the things killing CFB. And while there are valid arguments to be made in favor of that take (particularly conference realignment, i.e. literally killing the Pac12), I personally believe that the playoffs have done more to ruin the "mystique" (for lack of a better word at the moment) of College Football.
Going to a bowl game used to be a reward, not it's viewed as a punishment if it isn't a CFP bowl. And with playoff expansion, regular season match ups that used to hold so much weight, run the risk of becoming essentially meaningless. It used to be if say, Alabama lost to Ole Miss, it would practically ruin any chance of winning a title that year. Now, it would hurt it, but there's so much margin for error. A team could lose 3 games next year and still be in the NC championship race. To me, that's not college football. That's the NFLjr.
/End Rant!
I don't *mind* NIL, but I also see it much like what college football is becoming, which is NFL lite. You legit have a free agency period now. Look at Cam Ward with Wazzou for that proof. The portal doesn't bother me, but I see it being used so much that it feels abused by players AND coaches. What does jab me of all of this, and I'll never ever fully adjust to it, is conference realignment and expanded playoffs. Regional integrity used to be such a big deal, and that is all but gone now. I'm not even talking at the college level either. But when these athletes in sports other than football are they're going coast to coast in a week, along with having a full class schedule, I think you'll see further physical and mental fatigue. Nevermind the incredibly bloated cost of the logistics of all of it now. I don't think the average individual fully understands the dollars and cents behind transportation and hotels.
Lastly, I'll leave off on the playoff system. It doesn't matter how small or how expanded the field is. At some point, even with 12 teams, #13 is going to bitch and moan and raise a media circus. TCU did that in 2014 being left out. Raise the playoff field to a sweet 16? Guess what, 17, 18 and 19 are going to say they have a claim and their coaches will absolutely be at the podium crying. Because nobody seems to be capable anymore of saying "well, we lost a game or two and shit happens".
If the playoff were conference winners with one at large, I would feel much better about that. It would be the sweet spot between maintaining how special the regular season and rivalry games can be, but balance it with the monster that has become TV market money and more games = more dollars mentality. Plus it would sort of function in the outline of how the BCS did with the at-large bid. But even then, with 6 teams in, I can guarantee you #7-#10 will whine to all holy hell.
Lost in all of this is how funny this season has gone. On the eve of conference realignment, mostly out of frustration from Pac and Big 12 members being left out of the CFP, you have as much parity today as you've had in years.
edit: What I miss most about the bowl season, or even big regular season OCC matchups is the 'Whoever. Wherever.' That teams used to have. tOSU football and the fanbase used to embody that. Now? I guess if you can't win it all then everything else is a meaningless game based on business decisions.