Onebuckfan
classof76
The offense they run is a QBs run offense if your QB can’t or won’t reconsider your running offense.
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sparcboxbuck
What happened to my ¤cash?
Dave? Where's Dave been hanging out for the last decade?
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rsh
Day apologist
Lot's of talk of Coach Day abandoning the run the '21 season; I think Day would have killed to run with a 1st time starter at QB ... if the run game is a viable option.
Day talks about balance frequently in his press conferences, and he backed it up with play calls in big games in the previous two seasons, e.g.:
IMO the Bucks in '21 just does not have the talent and/or experience to replicate the running games of '19 or late '20. As a result, we see a passing team in '21 even with a 1st time starter at QB.
Positional breakdown:
Day talks about balance frequently in his press conferences, and he backed it up with play calls in big games in the previous two seasons, e.g.:
- '19 TTUN
- '19 Clemson
- '20 Clemson
IMO the Bucks in '21 just does not have the talent and/or experience to replicate the running games of '19 or late '20. As a result, we see a passing team in '21 even with a 1st time starter at QB.
Positional breakdown:
- TE: '19 & '20 Bucks love to run out of 12 personnel (1 back 2 TE); the '21 Bucks is by far a 11 personnel based team (1 back 1 TE). I think this is a conscious trade-off by Day. His has an all-world slot receiver in JSN; a QB that is good at getting the ball out quick on short/intermediate routes in CJ; OTOH he does not have a true scholarship 2nd TE behind Ruck:
- Rossi (supposedly the best blocker) was once a walk-on
- Stover is a converted DE/OLB (... who had to return to the defensive side on one of Hassan Haskin's goal-line TDs)
- Scott is a converted WR
Back to Ruck ... Day often says veteran players have to play veteran. Ruck is absolutely the veteran on offense. However, he has vastly disappointed IMO. He hasn't been bad ... just underwhelming (even in the passing game: dropped passes, carrying screen routes beyond LOS, holding penalties). I find it telling when the best blocking TE on this team in the coaches' opinions is a 2nd string ex-walk-on. Ruck's hair simply looks too impeccable & stylish in practice photos. - RB: Henderson might have better long speed than Dobbins or Sermon, but currently he is simply not as good at executing mid/wide zone runs, which have been the Bucks' base run plays in recent years. The term "run game diversity" (or lack thereof) gets thrown around a lot in the critique of tOSU's '21 run game; another critique is the lack of vertical push on long-developing stretch/OZ plays. Such critiques are overblown IMO, because (a) kids only get so many reps in practice to master plays, and a coach needs trust-worthy plays to keep the offense on schedule; and (b) Dobbins & Sermon killed TTUN & Clemson running the same small set of plays. The difference between '19, '20 & '21 is Dobbins & Sermon were lethal reading blocks and always making the defensive reaction incorrect (by cutting back or bouncing), even when the defense knew what play was coming. Henderson too often ran straight into defenders based on my untrained eyes.
Hopefully Henderson improves his patience and vision on zone runs in '22 (Dobbins also had a bad sophomore slump in '18 before a legendary 2K yard season in '19) ... or now that Henderson has entrenched himself as the starter heading into the offseason, the staff can install a run scheme that better fits his running style. - OL: last but not least, the perceived run game woes of shuffling 4 tackles on the OL are well documented on this forum and elsewhere. The true mystery is the reason behind the move. Like I've mentioned at the beginning of this post, I think Day loves to run the ball. I don't think Day put 4 tackles on the OL just to "get cute". I suspect Day's hand was forced when making this move. Was it because of injury & depth issues? Limitations of certain players? Has Studrawa's recruiting woes finally caught up to us (hence the rumored warmth of Studrawa's seat)? Was it to optimize the OL for passing because Day knew the other pieces on this team wouldn't be good at executing the base stretch run plays anyway? We might never know because the OL doesn't seem bad enough for Day to throw someone under the bus yet (unlike the defense). In the most indirect way possible to avoid bashing players, after seeing certain IOL getting pushed around more often than not in film study articles & tweets, I do think Harry Miller going down has had a much bigger impact on the run game than being discussed.
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Bring in a better OL coach to improve the talent on hand and the '22 offense could be as good as any we've ever seen.
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Running the ball is attitude. Beat the piss out of the guy in front of you all day long and let the big dogs eat That's not how this offense is built though it should still be more effective than it is. It's not just about trying to run more, it's also about when you run, what formations and how you run. ISO block with this line and see how they do. The stretch blocking with 4 tackles out there falls terrribly short.
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rsh
Day apologist
My final thoughts on the '21 offense and expectations for '22:
Football is a game of staying on schedule, and hitting explosive plays. The 2021 Buckeyes offense is legendary in the latter, but merely good in the former, definitely “not elite”.
Due to its explosiveness, the ‘21 Bucks O has a ridiculously high ceiling; this offense is bonkers when clicking: bomb to Olave, bomb to Wilson, 50 yarder by Henderson, long RAC by JSN … and it can be 49-0 before halftime. OTOH, when defenses were able to limit the explosive plays, this offense had not been able to consistently stay on schedule & score points. Few if any defenses have stopped this offense from gaining yards. However, the top-tier defenses on tOSU's schedule have prevented the offense from converting yards into points. The upshot: the floor of this offense is not high enough.
This brings another concept into play: stall/break points in @CFBNerds’ terminology, or freeze point in @LateKickJosh’s. Meaning: when opposing defenses are below a certain caliber, an offense can get anything it wants; when opposing defenses are above a certain caliber, an offense will start to sputter. To illustrate in context of tOSU’s O in 21, the defensive FEI rankings of its opponents & non-garbage time offensive points are listed in the table below:
Let’s focus on the defensive rankings because they are more intuitive than the raw efficiency ratings. The Ohio State D itself is highlighted in scarlet for reference; Tulsa & Oregon are grayed out because they seem to be outliers (maybe peak CJ shoulder injury?) – this becomes clearer when looking at the scatter plot presentation of the same table:
What story does the data tell us? It takes around a top-15 defense in 2021 to slow down this offense, to bring it down to the floor, which is around 26-28 points. Any drop-off from the top-15, things can escalate quickly. Against Minnesota, the 19th ranked defense, the Buckeyes scored 38 offensive points on the road, in crappy weather, when CJ was throwing for the 1st time in a live game since he was in high school. Against Purdue, whose defense is barely ranked outside of the top-25, this offense can essentially name the score, scoring touchdowns on almost every drive before halftime en route to 45 first half points. An offense can’t do any better than scoring touchdowns on every drive, even against worse defenses – this is the ceiling.
To conclude for ‘21, if the opponent doesn’t have a top-20ish defense, tOSU’s defense might not even have to get off the bus – the offense can win the game alone. Against top-15 defenses, in the true losable games on the schedule, this offense is good enough to not lose one, but not elite enough to win one either. This unfortunately has left the fate of tight games in the hands of the much less reliable defense: defense plays up-to-par, it is a semi-ugly struggle-win (PSU, Nebraska); defense craps its pants, it is an L (Oregon, TTUN).
What does this mean for ‘22?
First, I think with the loss of Olave & likely Garrett Wilson, the explosiveness and ceiling of the ‘22 offense will no doubt take a hit. However, I would argue a lower ceiling doesn’t matter, because (a) the ceiling in ‘21 was so high to begin with … 49-0 first halves are totally unnecessary, even for style points, and more importantly (b) based on the analysis above: a high ceiling may win some styles points in games against overmatched opponents, but a high floor is what wins games against the toughest opponents.
Next, I think the offense will be better at staying on schedule. CJ-to-JSN is the offense’s favorite 1st down weapon in ‘21, and both CJ & JSN come back in ‘22. So many of CJ’s missed 1st down conversion throws were so close in ‘21; I’m confident any marginal improvement in CJ’s timing, accuracy & consistency can turn a couple of field goals or failed 4th downs in the red zone into touchdowns. This alone can push the floor of the offense into the 30’s or even 40’s, not to mention any potential improvement in the short yardage & goal line ground game with Henderson. If the ‘22 offense can score in the 40s just by getting off the bus, tOSU would be almost impossible to beat, regardless of what happens on defense.
Finally, what would the stall point of the ‘22 offense be, i.e. what caliber of defenses would it take to slow the Bucks down in ‘22? I’m inclined to say the loss of Olave & likely Wilson would have to hurt in this area, but the defenses that can potentially slow down the Bucks have losses too. TTUN loses Hutchinson & likely Ojabo; Penn State has already lost Pry, Georgia and its historically elite D lose a ton of upperclassmen as well.
I think the game against a hated team led by a former Buckeye LB in the ‘Shoe would help answer a lot of our questions on the first Saturday of September ‘22.
Football is a game of staying on schedule, and hitting explosive plays. The 2021 Buckeyes offense is legendary in the latter, but merely good in the former, definitely “not elite”.
Due to its explosiveness, the ‘21 Bucks O has a ridiculously high ceiling; this offense is bonkers when clicking: bomb to Olave, bomb to Wilson, 50 yarder by Henderson, long RAC by JSN … and it can be 49-0 before halftime. OTOH, when defenses were able to limit the explosive plays, this offense had not been able to consistently stay on schedule & score points. Few if any defenses have stopped this offense from gaining yards. However, the top-tier defenses on tOSU's schedule have prevented the offense from converting yards into points. The upshot: the floor of this offense is not high enough.
This brings another concept into play: stall/break points in @CFBNerds’ terminology, or freeze point in @LateKickJosh’s. Meaning: when opposing defenses are below a certain caliber, an offense can get anything it wants; when opposing defenses are above a certain caliber, an offense will start to sputter. To illustrate in context of tOSU’s O in 21, the defensive FEI rankings of its opponents & non-garbage time offensive points are listed in the table below:
Let’s focus on the defensive rankings because they are more intuitive than the raw efficiency ratings. The Ohio State D itself is highlighted in scarlet for reference; Tulsa & Oregon are grayed out because they seem to be outliers (maybe peak CJ shoulder injury?) – this becomes clearer when looking at the scatter plot presentation of the same table:
What story does the data tell us? It takes around a top-15 defense in 2021 to slow down this offense, to bring it down to the floor, which is around 26-28 points. Any drop-off from the top-15, things can escalate quickly. Against Minnesota, the 19th ranked defense, the Buckeyes scored 38 offensive points on the road, in crappy weather, when CJ was throwing for the 1st time in a live game since he was in high school. Against Purdue, whose defense is barely ranked outside of the top-25, this offense can essentially name the score, scoring touchdowns on almost every drive before halftime en route to 45 first half points. An offense can’t do any better than scoring touchdowns on every drive, even against worse defenses – this is the ceiling.
To conclude for ‘21, if the opponent doesn’t have a top-20ish defense, tOSU’s defense might not even have to get off the bus – the offense can win the game alone. Against top-15 defenses, in the true losable games on the schedule, this offense is good enough to not lose one, but not elite enough to win one either. This unfortunately has left the fate of tight games in the hands of the much less reliable defense: defense plays up-to-par, it is a semi-ugly struggle-win (PSU, Nebraska); defense craps its pants, it is an L (Oregon, TTUN).
What does this mean for ‘22?
First, I think with the loss of Olave & likely Garrett Wilson, the explosiveness and ceiling of the ‘22 offense will no doubt take a hit. However, I would argue a lower ceiling doesn’t matter, because (a) the ceiling in ‘21 was so high to begin with … 49-0 first halves are totally unnecessary, even for style points, and more importantly (b) based on the analysis above: a high ceiling may win some styles points in games against overmatched opponents, but a high floor is what wins games against the toughest opponents.
Next, I think the offense will be better at staying on schedule. CJ-to-JSN is the offense’s favorite 1st down weapon in ‘21, and both CJ & JSN come back in ‘22. So many of CJ’s missed 1st down conversion throws were so close in ‘21; I’m confident any marginal improvement in CJ’s timing, accuracy & consistency can turn a couple of field goals or failed 4th downs in the red zone into touchdowns. This alone can push the floor of the offense into the 30’s or even 40’s, not to mention any potential improvement in the short yardage & goal line ground game with Henderson. If the ‘22 offense can score in the 40s just by getting off the bus, tOSU would be almost impossible to beat, regardless of what happens on defense.
Finally, what would the stall point of the ‘22 offense be, i.e. what caliber of defenses would it take to slow the Bucks down in ‘22? I’m inclined to say the loss of Olave & likely Wilson would have to hurt in this area, but the defenses that can potentially slow down the Bucks have losses too. TTUN loses Hutchinson & likely Ojabo; Penn State has already lost Pry, Georgia and its historically elite D lose a ton of upperclassmen as well.
I think the game against a hated team led by a former Buckeye LB in the ‘Shoe would help answer a lot of our questions on the first Saturday of September ‘22.
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I was told there would be no math.My final thoughts on the '21 offense and expectations for '22:
Football is a game of staying on schedule, and hitting explosive plays. The 2021 Buckeyes offense is legendary in the latter, but merely good in the former, definitely “not elite”.
Due to its explosiveness, the ‘21 Bucks O has a ridiculously high ceiling; this offense is bonkers when clicking: bomb to Olave, bomb to Wilson, 50 yarder by Henderson, long RAC by JSN … and it can be 49-0 before halftime. OTOH, when defenses were able to limit the explosive plays, this offense had not been able to consistently stay on schedule & score points. Few if any defenses have stopped this offense from gaining yards. However, the top-tier defenses on tOSU's schedule have prevented the offense from converting yards into points. The upshot: the floor of this offense is not high enough.
This brings another concept into play: stall/break points in @CFBNerds’ terminology, or freeze point in @LateKickJosh’s. Meaning: when opposing defenses are below a certain caliber, an offense can get anything it wants; when opposing defenses are above a certain caliber, an offense will start to sputter. To illustrate in context of tOSU’s O in 21, the defensive FEI rankings of its opponents & non-garbage time offensive points are listed in the table below:
View attachment 30899
Let’s focus on the defensive rankings because they are more intuitive than the raw efficiency ratings. The Ohio State D itself is highlighted in scarlet for reference; Tulsa & Oregon are grayed out because they seem to be outliers (maybe peak CJ shoulder injury?) – this becomes clearer when looking at the scatter plot presentation of the same table:
What story does the data tell us? It takes around a top-15 defense in 2021 to slow down this offense, to bring it down to the floor, which is around 26-28 points. Any drop-off from the top-15, things can escalate quickly. Against Minnesota, the 19th ranked defense, the Buckeyes scored 38 offensive points on the road, in crappy weather, when CJ was throwing for the 1st time in a live game since he was in high school. Against Purdue, whose defense is barely ranked outside of the top-25, this offense can essentially name the score, scoring touchdowns on almost every drive before halftime en route to 45 first half points. An offense can’t do any better than scoring touchdowns on every drive, even against worse defenses – this is the ceiling.
To conclude for ‘21, if the opponent doesn’t have a top-20ish defense, tOSU’s defense might not even have to get off the bus – the offense can win the game alone. Against top-15 defenses, in the true losable games on the schedule, this offense is good enough to not lose one, but not elite enough to win one either. This unfortunately has left the fate of tight games in the hands of the much less reliable defense: defense plays up-to-par, it is a semi-ugly struggle-win (PSU, Nebraska); defense craps its pants, it is an L (Oregon, TTUN).
What does this mean for ‘22?
First, I think with the loss of Olave & likely Garrett Wilson, the explosiveness and ceiling of the ‘22 offense will no doubt take a hit. However, I would argue a lower ceiling doesn’t matter, because (a) the ceiling in ‘21 was so high to begin with … 49-0 first halves are totally unnecessary, even for style points, and more importantly (b) based on the analysis above: a high ceiling may win some styles points in games against overmatched opponents, but a high floor is what wins games against the toughest opponents.
Next, I think the offense will be better at staying on schedule. CJ-to-JSN is the offense’s favorite 1st down weapon in ‘21, and both CJ & JSN come back in ‘22. So many of CJ’s missed 1st down conversion throws were so close in ‘21; I’m confident any marginal improvement in CJ’s timing, accuracy & consistency can turn a couple of field goals or failed 4th downs in the red zone into touchdowns. This alone can push the floor of the offense into the 30’s or even 40’s, not to mention any potential improvement in the short yardage & goal line ground game with Henderson. If the ‘22 offense can score in the 40s just by getting off the bus, tOSU would be almost impossible to beat, regardless of what happens on defense.
Finally, what would the stall point of the ‘22 offense be, i.e. what caliber of defenses would it take to slow the Bucks down in ‘22? I’m inclined to say the loss of Olave & likely Wilson would have to hurt in this area, but the defenses that can potentially slow down the Bucks have losses too. TTUN loses Hutchinson & likely Ojabo; Penn State has already lost Pry, Georgia and its historically elite D lose a ton of upperclassmen as well.
I think the game against a hated team led by a former Buckeye LB in the ‘Shoe would help answer a lot of our questions on the first Saturday of September ‘22.
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bukIpower
Head Coach
I've been screaming (to myself obviously lol) about this all year. IMO Ruckert disappeared because he just wasn't effective as a blocker. Ryan Day sort of repeated insanity with pulling him in to block which 88 is not great at. Either put in another OT or what I think should've happened is just keep Ruckert out wide or bring in another WR. Formation teams out of the box and if they don't you throw it out wide.
Also yes Ryan speaks about balance but he also botched the game plan vs ttun IMO. Why didn't we treat them like Purdue with their DE Karlaftis? Where were the Jet sweeps, the tempo, rolling the pocket, the double teams or options to take away Hutchinson? We let that kid wreck our game.
Yes. Which is why ttun got markedly better at it. Doing a period playing 9 on 7 is brutal if you think about it. You do that enough and you'd better start swinging back in that drill or risk getting your ass kicked. We would be wise to do something similar. We are built to stop the pass but the issue is no one throws the ball well in the B1G outside of Purdue. We have to develop that physicalness and more than likely fast if we don't want to end on a 2 game losing streak.
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bukIpower
Head Coach
IMO this will be offset by CJ being back though. Yes losing 2 and 5 sucks but I think Egbuka fills in nicely. Also to your point I think Harrison gives us a better move the chains kind of guy which we could use.My final thoughts on the '21 offense and expectations for '22:
Football is a game of staying on schedule, and hitting explosive plays. The 2021 Buckeyes offense is legendary in the latter, but merely good in the former, definitely “not elite”.
Due to its explosiveness, the ‘21 Bucks O has a ridiculously high ceiling; this offense is bonkers when clicking: bomb to Olave, bomb to Wilson, 50 yarder by Henderson, long RAC by JSN … and it can be 49-0 before halftime. OTOH, when defenses were able to limit the explosive plays, this offense had not been able to consistently stay on schedule & score points. Few if any defenses have stopped this offense from gaining yards. However, the top-tier defenses on tOSU's schedule have prevented the offense from converting yards into points. The upshot: the floor of this offense is not high enough.
This brings another concept into play: stall/break points in @CFBNerds’ terminology, or freeze point in @LateKickJosh’s. Meaning: when opposing defenses are below a certain caliber, an offense can get anything it wants; when opposing defenses are above a certain caliber, an offense will start to sputter. To illustrate in context of tOSU’s O in 21, the defensive FEI rankings of its opponents & non-garbage time offensive points are listed in the table below:
View attachment 30899
Let’s focus on the defensive rankings because they are more intuitive than the raw efficiency ratings. The Ohio State D itself is highlighted in scarlet for reference; Tulsa & Oregon are grayed out because they seem to be outliers (maybe peak CJ shoulder injury?) – this becomes clearer when looking at the scatter plot presentation of the same table:
What story does the data tell us? It takes around a top-15 defense in 2021 to slow down this offense, to bring it down to the floor, which is around 26-28 points. Any drop-off from the top-15, things can escalate quickly. Against Minnesota, the 19th ranked defense, the Buckeyes scored 38 offensive points on the road, in crappy weather, when CJ was throwing for the 1st time in a live game since he was in high school. Against Purdue, whose defense is barely ranked outside of the top-25, this offense can essentially name the score, scoring touchdowns on almost every drive before halftime en route to 45 first half points. An offense can’t do any better than scoring touchdowns on every drive, even against worse defenses – this is the ceiling.
To conclude for ‘21, if the opponent doesn’t have a top-20ish defense, tOSU’s defense might not even have to get off the bus – the offense can win the game alone. Against top-15 defenses, in the true losable games on the schedule, this offense is good enough to not lose one, but not elite enough to win one either. This unfortunately has left the fate of tight games in the hands of the much less reliable defense: defense plays up-to-par, it is a semi-ugly struggle-win (PSU, Nebraska); defense craps its pants, it is an L (Oregon, TTUN).
What does this mean for ‘22?
First, I think with the loss of Olave & likely Garrett Wilson, the explosiveness and ceiling of the ‘22 offense will no doubt take a hit. However, I would argue a lower ceiling doesn’t matter, because (a) the ceiling in ‘21 was so high to begin with … 49-0 first halves are totally unnecessary, even for style points, and more importantly (b) based on the analysis above: a high ceiling may win some styles points in games against overmatched opponents, but a high floor is what wins games against the toughest opponents.
Next, I think the offense will be better at staying on schedule. CJ-to-JSN is the offense’s favorite 1st down weapon in ‘21, and both CJ & JSN come back in ‘22. So many of CJ’s missed 1st down conversion throws were so close in ‘21; I’m confident any marginal improvement in CJ’s timing, accuracy & consistency can turn a couple of field goals or failed 4th downs in the red zone into touchdowns. This alone can push the floor of the offense into the 30’s or even 40’s, not to mention any potential improvement in the short yardage & goal line ground game with Henderson. If the ‘22 offense can score in the 40s just by getting off the bus, tOSU would be almost impossible to beat, regardless of what happens on defense.
Finally, what would the stall point of the ‘22 offense be, i.e. what caliber of defenses would it take to slow the Bucks down in ‘22? I’m inclined to say the loss of Olave & likely Wilson would have to hurt in this area, but the defenses that can potentially slow down the Bucks have losses too. TTUN loses Hutchinson & likely Ojabo; Penn State has already lost Pry, Georgia and its historically elite D lose a ton of upperclassmen as well.
I think the game against a hated team led by a former Buckeye LB in the ‘Shoe would help answer a lot of our questions on the first Saturday of September ‘22.
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I think Fleming will start over MHjr next year, imo. But he’ll get rotated in often. Fleming looked really strong this season, and was a very good blocker at times. JSN, Egbuka and Fleming would be a great WR starters with MHjr rotating in(and hopefully Ballard too)
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bukIpower
Head Coach
I knew I forgot someone... go figure it was the #1 WR in his class (provided no one transfers).
So we will have 4 and 11 out wide with 12 in the slot. CJ with another year in the offense is enormous though and even more so for Trey Henderson. Henderson even though he's 210 pounds needs to get to 220-225 eventually like Zeke.
If we can emphasize the running game and physical play we can be a better offense next year.
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I really think that next season will hang on the ability to control the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball much better than this year. Can't play smashmouth? Be happy with 2 losses.
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1926Buckeyes
Head Coach
I think he can put on a bit of weight but it'll be more about vision and learning when to not just run into a defender as fast as you can. Either way they can, and need to be, much better at running next year.
Also, as much as losing Olave and Wilson hurt, I think Egbuka has a shot a being really special. He can make you miss in a phone booth like JSN, but is more dynamic. Would love to see a guy like Ballard turn into a legit deep threat even if he doesn't see the field a ton.
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