2021 CFB Playoff Discussion

[BB73]

That is certainly a fair and objective way to do things. I think the fairest way to deal with the statistical uncertainties is to expand the field until there is something like a 95% chance the best team is included in the field. Not sure how to calculate that or how many teams that would be. I would be surprised if it took more than 8-12 teams to get to that level of confidence in most years. I would also dump the committee and go with some sort of open-source computer ranking system. I'd be just as happy dumping the CFP altogether and going back to the bowl system.

They could go to 128 teams and have a 99.999% chance that the best team is included in the field!

But to me it’s not worth the cost of devaluing the regular season. 4 teams gets it well over 90% that the best team is included, and that’s enough for me. The talk of playoff expansion has largely been driven by ESPN for the last 15 years, and it’s part of their agenda to control the sport and increase their profits from it. Anybody thinking that ESPN cares about what’s fair or what’s best for another entity besides themselves is kidding himself.

And projections showing this year’s teams in an expanded playoff scenario, showing the same number of B1G and SEC teams in the field, are smoke and mirrors trying to make it look fair. As soon as the 12-team model comes into existence, the evil empire will make it a year-round effort to influence those who select the teams that 5 or 6 SEC teams belong in the field every year. And for me, watching that happen will be a miserable experience.
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[cincibuck]

They could go to 128 teams and have a 99.999% chance that the best team is included in the field!

But to me it’s not worth the cost of devaluing the regular season. 4 teams gets it well over 90% that the best team is included, and that’s enough for me. The talk of playoff expansion has largely been driven by ESPN for the last 15 years, and it’s part of their agenda to control the sport and increase their profits from it. Anybody thinking that ESPN cares about what’s fair or what’s best for another entity besides themselves is kidding himself.

And projections showing this year’s teams in an expanded playoff scenario, showing the same number of B1G and SEC teams in the field, are smoke and mirrors trying to make it look fair. As soon as the 12-team model comes into existence, the evil empire will make it a year-round effort to influence those who select the teams that 5 or 6 SEC teams belong in the field every year. And for me, watching that happen will be a miserable experience.
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Exactamundo - ESPN needs product to fill an endless schedule. Hey MAC, You want money? Give us a conference game on Tuesday and another one on Thursday. Hey, you Big Ten, have teams open the season with a conference game on a Thursday night. Hey, Big Five, give us control of the playoffs. We need 8 games during Christmas week followed by 4 games on New Years Day, leading to 2 games on the first weekend of January following New Years Day, and then a final matchup for Martin Luther King Day. You hate to lose the big game against your long-time rival, the CCG, and the regular season. Cry us a river. The check is in the mail.

And lucky for ESPN and the colleges, the players are still "amateurs" without a player's association or union. Academics? Tell the little fuckers to major in criminology, communications, or kinesiology.

 

[kujirakira]

Dec. 31: Orange Bowl
Miami Gardens, Fla.

Semifinal: (1) Georgia vs. (4) Alabama

Dec. 31: Cotton Bowl
Arlington, Texas

Semifinal: (2) Ohio State vs. (3) Cincinnati

Since we know ratings drives this whole thing anyway.
Does anyone really think that's a good lineup for eyeballs? 2 regional matchups, one of them a rematch from last game of the season.
I mean, I'd take that for Ohio State. But that just looks awful.

We won't get in the playoffs if we lose again. Alabama is the only team who will make it with two losses.

Not like what they say matters anyway. Their “criteria” seems to change accordingly with what teams they really want in.

Truth.

If a one loss ND get in over an undefeated Cincinnati, I will only watch the OSU games. I know that is a pretty weak threat, especially since OSU will most likely play in 2/3rds of the CFP games. Plus, nobody cares if I watch anything anyway. But I am throwing down the gauntlet nevertheless! Screw you CFP committee!

Voting with your feet and dollars is always the best.
I don't watch any CFP games unless they concern Ohio State.

It depends on a lot of things, including the experience of the starting QBs and to whom and when you lost (Ohio State to Oregon, second game; Oregon to Stanford, fifth game).

That game still matters, and why we shouldn't be in discussion for who gets #1 seed.
I think the bottom line is that our loss is explainable within context.
Looked at in context, Oregon got worse and Ohio State got better over September and October.
Both poll voters and computers have picked up on that.
The committee is standing on a soap box preaching head-to-head, OK. That is their value system. But then explain MSU and scUM rankings.
They're not credible.
They lie to our face. Just say the truth - they'll come up with any excuse to put Georgia and Bama in.

There's no way to get everyone to agree with this kind of thing. And I respect your opinion that there's other things involved in determining the mythical "better team". Ohio State had a freshman quarterback against Oregon. But Ohio State lost. And to be fair, I'm not buying the "CJ Stroud is a freshman and that's why Ohio State lost" garbage. He threw for almost 500 yards. Maybe it should have been more, but the defense was atrocious. If you say that the defense has since changed, making Ohio State a better team, I'm on board.

I'd argue this is the problem with just looking at stats (aiming this at the committee's "we don't watch games, we look at stats" bs than at you).
Stroud missed several throws on specific plays that he's been making since.
If you only see the statline, that isn't apparent. If you watched the game, you know he wasn't in rhythm with receivers and his form was off. imo, it's not a coincidence that disappeared after taking the week off against Akron.

 

[CincyInterloper]

Based on my eye test, I vote we cancel the CFP and just have OSU play Georgia for all the marbles.

 

[Beano Cook]

I don't give a damn what Oregon and Bama do today, Ohio State moves up to #2 on my list.

Sparty may not recover from this beatdown until next season.

 

[TampaBuckeyes]

Now it looks like if Bama wins the sec, we get Georgia. If Georgia wins the sec, we get Cinci first. Wouldn’t that be fun.

but first need to beat ttun, win big ten.

 

[Bestbuck36]

Based on my eye test, I vote we cancel the CFP and just have OSU play Georgia for all the marbles.

Bingo was his naxe OH!

 

[Abenaki]

I love Luke, but I absolutely want Cincy and to banish them and their juggalo fans back to the shadow realm.

 

[ORD_Buckeye]

I love Luke, but I absolutely want Cincy and to banish them and their juggalo fans back to the shadow realm.

I'm torn on playing them. I think we win that game nine times out of ten and probably blow them out in five. Luke aside, I'd love for it to be the Buckeyes that fist them back to reality. It's just that one slim chance that they knock us out of the playoffs. Good God, we'd never hear the end of it. Luke might be able to tell the university and AD to lose any notion of some "Ohio BCS School" type bullshit, but god damn, the juggalos would be insufferable to the end of all time.

 

[CincyInterloper]

I really want UGA in the first round. I think our OL is good enough to control their front seven enough that CJ and receivers can do their thing against a good but not great secondary. I also think the UGA defense against The Ohio State offense is the matchup that 'merica and the committee desperately want, so they'll do everything possible to arrange it either as 1-4 or 2-3.

I think this could happen if Alabama beats Georgia, which could result in a fourth seed Cincy playing Alabama, and a second seeded OSU playing Georgia in the first round. The odd thing to me with this arrangement is that UC would have a better chance of making it past Alabama than either OSU or Georgia.

 

[Abenaki]

I'm torn on playing them. I think we win that game nine times out of ten and probably blow them out in five. Luke aside, I'd love for it to be the Buckeyes that fist them back to reality. It's just that one slim chance that they knock us out of the playoffs. Good God, we'd never hear the end of it. Luke might be able to tell the university and AD to lose any notion of some "Ohio BCS School" type bullshit, but god damn, the juggalos would be insufferable to the end of all time.

You're not wrong, and I'm sure they'd be crazy hyped for that matchup. I just haven't seen anything from them to make me think they'd actually pull it off.

 

[kujirakira]

As things stand now, winner of SECCG is #1, tOSU #2, loser of SECCG #3, and Cinci #4.
I find it hard to imagine the committee wouldn't offer up Cincy as an easy Semifinal for one of the SEC schools.

But as somebody else pointed out, I like the idea of getting Georgia first with the longer prep time. And Saban with shorter prep time.
Does Saban prepare for Cincy, Georgia, or us in December?

 

[muffler dragon]

As things stand now, winner of SECCG is #1, tOSU #2, loser of SECCG #3, and Cinci #4.
I find it hard to imagine the committee wouldn't offer up Cincy as an easy Semifinal for one of the SEC schools.

But as somebody else pointed out, I like the idea of getting Georgia first with the longer prep time. And Saban with shorter prep time.
Does Saban prepare for Cincy, Georgia, or us in December?

If there are two SEC schools in the Playoffs, then IMO they need to be #1 and #4 to eliminate one from moving on.

 

[kujirakira]

If there are two SEC schools in the Playoffs, then IMO they need to be #1 and #4 to eliminate one from moving on.

Only in the SEC can you secure a playoff spot by losing your division to a rival in the final game.

 

[Jaxbuck]

As things stand now, winner of SECCG is #1, tOSU #2, loser of SECCG #3, and Cinci #4.
I find it hard to imagine the committee wouldn't offer up Cincy as an easy Semifinal for one of the SEC schools.

But as somebody else pointed out, I like the idea of getting Georgia first with the longer prep time. And Saban with shorter prep time.
Does Saban prepare for Cincy, Georgia, or us in December?

Not that it matters for fuck before 3:30 Saturday but if UGA beats Bama I don't think Bama holds on at 4. I think it goes to 1 loss ND or 1 loss B1G 12 champ with OSU and UC being 2 & 3.