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2021 CFB Playoff Discussion

Yea, I'm not a fan of massively expanding the playoff... but this looks pretty damn good.
Only reason I like expanding to 8 is because it gives us an opportunity to nuke this crummy ESPN committee, and theoretically negate the SEC bias... but who am I kidding, they would still put 5 SEC teams in and 3 schools from the rest of the country.

I can hear Dukie V crying like he's witnessed a war crime over who is #64 in the March Madness tournament. Now they have a couple teams play for that spot because they figured out how to make a buck off it.

There is zero difference ahead of us in CFB. The horse is out of the barn and it isn't going back in. There will be continued expansion. It will be media driven because they are the ones who will monetize it. The final number stops about where market research determines not enough people will watch to make it profitable.
 
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It will be interesting to see what happens to MSU. Don't they have to drop below an undefeated Oklahoma with an 11 point late season loss (other than UM they have a remarkably weak schedule)?

But wouldn't that mean they have to drop below Michigan - a team they beat head-to-head? Or does Okie jump them both during a bye week?
 
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I can hear Dukie V crying like he's witnessed a war crime over who is #64 in the March Madness tournament. Now they have a couple teams play for that spot because they figured out how to make a buck off it.

There is zero difference ahead of us in CFB. The horse is out of the barn and it isn't going back in. There will be continued expansion. It will be media driven because they are the ones who will monetize it. The final number stops about where market research determines not enough people will watch to make it profitable.

That is exactly my nightmare.
Why even have a regular season? Just skip straight to the tournament bracket.
I don't know why everyone else in the world understands Tournaments vs. Season winners are different. They're not making less money off Champions League and EPL.
 
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It will be interesting to see what happens to MSU. Don't they have to drop below an undefeated Oklahoma with an 11 point late season loss (other than UM they have a remarkably weak schedule)?

But wouldn't that mean they have to drop below Michigan - a team they beat head-to-head? Or does Okie jump them both during a bye week?
I think Okie might jump to #5, above Cincy, Sparty, and TTUN. The committee needs to value being undefeated, and they need to drop teams for bad losses. Oregon has a very bad loss to 3-6 Stanford, and not having OC Joe Moorhead doesn’t excuse it. UTSA is the 1 undefeated team they can leave outside the top-15 based on their weak schedule.

Bama has a loss, only has 1 good win (Ole Miss), and they have close calls againt two teams with losing records, Florida and LSU. Other than the name on their jersey, why are they #2?
 
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People always overreact to singular outcomes. Based on yesterday and our general body of work, I don't think anyone could embarrass the Bucks outside of Georgia, and even then, I feel we match-up with the Dawgs better than most teams.
No doubt Georgia is good, but what is their best win so far? Auburn or Kentucky maybe? I submit that they have yet to be truly tested.
 
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People always overreact to singular outcomes. Based on yesterday and our general body of work, I don't think anyone could embarrass the Bucks outside of Georgia, and even then, I feel we match-up with the Dawgs better than most teams.

No doubt Georgia is good, but what is their best win so far? Auburn or Kentucky maybe? I submit that they have yet to be truly tested.

Ohio State is the only real threat to Georgia this year. And based on yesterday's performance, they have to clean up somethings before they face us in the CFP. But Day is an outstanding coach, and I do not doubt, with a month left in the regular season, that those needed adjustments will be made by the times the post-season begins.
 
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Ohio State is the only real threat to Georgia this year. And based on yesterday's performance, they have to clean up somethings before they face us in the CFP. But Day is an outstanding coach, and I do not doubt, with a month left in the regular season, that those needed adjustments will be made by the times the post-season begins.
In an unexpected twist, the horrific defense was replaced by a sometimes decent looking one, that trended towards pretty good lately (though that is certainly a byproduct of the opposing offense).

And the high flying offense is showing its youth. Stroud has all of the tools but is still learning to trust himself. Henderson has the talent but has had a light load so far, and is not used to the grind yet.

Us OSU fans have come full circle to missing JT Barrett's feet :) He was a rich man's Jalen Hurts in college at the beginning, but naturally OSU fans clamored for more flamethrowing QBs (like Cardale in the NC run). They have now gone on such a run of great throwers that suddenly everyone misses the best running QB in school history, despite his flaws as a passer after hit #4956.

The WR depth that pushed Jameson Williams to Bama (and ironically gave them their only other WR) is still very young. Emeka Egbuka still plays very little. Julian Fleming has a bright future if he can stay healthy but last game was his first major role. Harrison has received solid but limited reps. They use the top 3 and rarely take anyone off the field (and their 4th & 5th best receivers are a TE and RB, not that the young WRs aren't promising, but you can substitute better matchups when the frosh WRs come in).

There is a lot of youth on this team, and the future of the DL is all true freshmen (Sawyer, Tutuimoloau, Williams). The veterans can flash but outside of Garrett they are not as consistent as the DL that Johnson has produced over the years (not just the stars, but the Sam Hubbard, Tyquan Lewis types).

Despite OSU being on a crazy run of 1st round DBs (with a different coach), then DC Alex Grinch (and a different DB coach) set this program back considerably by not recruiting a corner for a year (and they didn't recover with much the following year). Safety recruiting wasn't much better, and the lone gem Proctor had a terrible, year ending surgery. So they're a little limited on the back end, which hurts because at corner they have a great frosh (Burke) and some decent veterans. The vets are not like the top end that OSU has produced recently, but good enough.

Shaw has tried to fill Proctor's athletic shoes at deep safety. Schematic changes have helped but he's still a little limited, and Ransom is willing to stick his nose in there but is not the most consistent either. Kourt Williams might be the most promising of the three but is still figuring out which way to go and thus is only playing in spot duty. He's also not a deep safety whatsoever, more of a strong safety type back when they had those in CFB.
 
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And the high flying offense is showing its youth. Stroud has all of the tools but is still learning to trust himself. Henderson has the talent but has had a light load so far, and is not used to the grind yet.

Us OSU fans have come full circle to missing JT Barrett's feet :) He was a rich man's Jalen Hurts in college at the beginning, but naturally OSU fans clamored for more flamethrowing QBs (like Cardale in the NC run). They have now gone on such a run of great throwers that suddenly everyone misses the best running QB in school history, despite his flaws as a passer after hit #4956.

There is a lot of youth on this team, and the future of the DL is all true freshmen (Sawyer, Tutuimoloau, Williams). The veterans can flash but outside of Garrett they are not as consistent as the DL that Johnson has produced over the years (not just the stars, but the Sam Hubbard, Tyquan Lewis types).

Defensive issues aside, one thing I've noticed, from just the few games I've seen of Ohio State recently, is that the offense moves the ball very well between the 20 yard lines and then tends to get stifled in the red zone.

Particularly, I recall an instance vs penn state when the run game got stuffed on 4th and short.

As you mentioned Henderson is still young, but is definitely explosive. Stroud is a great thrower but may not be a willing runner at this point of his career.

I bolded your comment about the young DL because I was wondering if your OL is young too. I say this because if so, is that contributing to some of the red zone scoring issues and ability to convert 3rd/4th and short with the run game? Or is it because Stroud isn't scaring defenses with the threat to run?

I would think that Henderson and a capable OL could be reliable enough even if defenses know what's coming.

Also, I realize that I'm focusing on a very small sample of plays to base this assumption off of. So disregard if completely off the mark there.
 
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I'll take this projection in a heartbeat:



ORANGE BOWL (CFB PLAYOFF SEMIFINAL)
10691891.jpg


Projection: No. 2 Ohio State vs. No. 3 Oklahoma

Benefiting from the expected onslaught of teams ahead of them to lose over the final few weeks of the season, the Sooners should reach the final four if they're the unbeaten Big 12 champs at year's send. Oklahoma would have several notable wins in November (including Oklahoma State in Bedlam) and would have a Power Five conference title trump card against the likes of a one-loss Notre Dame or even unbeaten Cincinnati. Ohio State needs to win out to get to the final four and Ryan Day's team knows it.

COTTON BOWL (CFB PLAYOFF SEMIFINAL)
10669150.jpg


Projection: No. 1 Georgia vs. No. 4 Oregon

Oregon needs to win out to get to the playoff and Ohio State doing so would also help given the fact the Ducks' best win came against the Buckeyes. With Georgia all but locked in as the No. 1 seed with an expected unblemished record, the chase for the No. 4 seed in the playoff is on. It helps Oregon that the Ducks were ranked No. 4 in the first selection committee poll and not outside the top four.

CFB PLAYOFF NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP
10609098.jpg


Projection: No. 1 Georgia vs. No. 2 Ohio State

Your guess is as good as ours at this time on which team advances to play Georgia in the national championship game this season. It could be any one of a handful of teams who appear to be in that second group of elites. The Bulldogs, at this point, are in their own stratosphere with no obvious weakness.
 
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I'll take this projection in a heartbeat:



ORANGE BOWL (CFB PLAYOFF SEMIFINAL)
10691891.jpg


Projection: No. 2 Ohio State vs. No. 3 Oklahoma

Benefiting from the expected onslaught of teams ahead of them to lose over the final few weeks of the season, the Sooners should reach the final four if they're the unbeaten Big 12 champs at year's send. Oklahoma would have several notable wins in November (including Oklahoma State in Bedlam) and would have a Power Five conference title trump card against the likes of a one-loss Notre Dame or even unbeaten Cincinnati. Ohio State needs to win out to get to the final four and Ryan Day's team knows it.

COTTON BOWL (CFB PLAYOFF SEMIFINAL)
10669150.jpg


Projection: No. 1 Georgia vs. No. 4 Oregon

Oregon needs to win out to get to the playoff and Ohio State doing so would also help given the fact the Ducks' best win came against the Buckeyes. With Georgia all but locked in as the No. 1 seed with an expected unblemished record, the chase for the No. 4 seed in the playoff is on. It helps Oregon that the Ducks were ranked No. 4 in the first selection committee poll and not outside the top four.

CFB PLAYOFF NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP
10609098.jpg


Projection: No. 1 Georgia vs. No. 2 Ohio State

Your guess is as good as ours at this time on which team advances to play Georgia in the national championship game this season. It could be any one of a handful of teams who appear to be in that second group of elites. The Bulldogs, at this point, are in their own stratosphere with no obvious weakness.


The only possible better scenario would be us vs Oregon in a rematch and UGA vs Oklahoma, then the final. I'd definitely take either possibility!
 
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Defensive issues aside, one thing I've noticed, from just the few games I've seen of Ohio State recently, is that the offense moves the ball very well between the 20 yard lines and then tends to get stifled in the red zone.

Particularly, I recall an instance vs penn state when the run game got stuffed on 4th and short.

As you mentioned Henderson is still young, but is definitely explosive. Stroud is a great thrower but may not be a willing runner at this point of his career.

I bolded your comment about the young DL because I was wondering if your OL is young too. I say this because if so, is that contributing to some of the red zone scoring issues and ability to convert 3rd/4th and short with the run game? Or is it because Stroud isn't scaring defenses with the threat to run?

I would think that Henderson and a capable OL could be reliable enough even if defenses know what's coming.

Also, I realize that I'm focusing on a very small sample of plays to base this assumption off of. So disregard if completely off the mark there.

You see what we all see. The OL is capable but sometimes they misfire and that's the heart of our issues right now. All the skill players are more than good enough to elite.

I will say the trend I notice across CFB is the move back to the bend but don't break, zone defenses that try to make the opponent drive the field philosophy. It doesn't work as well as it used to but offenses are so good at carving up predictable man coverages that they have no choice.

Day has all the tools he needs to get better at beating defenses in the red zone if he can count on his OL more.
 
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