The Real Hole in Their Swing
What’s wrong on 3rd and medium? That’s the big question.
The flaw in the source data made me think that perhaps the Buckeyes aren’t throwing the ball far enough downfield on 3rd and medium. Going through play-by-play debunked that. Several people, both in this thread and in real life, suggested that field position was skewing the data, that perhaps more 3rd and mediums occurred in the red zone. The previous post proves otherwise. So we are down to two possibilities.
What we’re left with is either Ohio State’s offense is doing something differently on those downs or the defense is doing something differently on those downs. In watching every third down and examining the data, I can say with certainty it’s not the offense.
Ryan Day and his staff did an excellent job of mixing up the formations, patterns, etc on 3rd down. There was no discernible tendency that would explain the difference in the data. Rather than show the giant profusion of data necessary to prove that negative, I’ll just get straight to what the answer is.
The first clue into what is really happening here came with an examination of when opposing defenses blitzed.
There you have it. The defense is most likely to blitz on 3rd and 7 to 9, the distance at which Justin and the offense struggle (relatively speaking), and they are least likely to blitz on 3rd and 10+, the distance at which Justin and the offense are the biggest kickers in the history of ass. All there is left to do is to chart passing based on blitzing AND distance to go on 3rd down.
If you notice that there is a difference between the number of attempts in this table and the number of snaps in the previous table, congratulations. The total snaps includes sacks and scrambles. By the way, only 1 third down sack came on a play with no blitz. The other 8 (7 really) were due to a blitz.
Looking at these numbers, two things jump out:
- Whether there was a blitz or not, the offense had a slightly higher rating on 3rd and long than on 3rd and medium.
- The offense was a LOT better when not facing a blitz, and that’s the real difference in the data.
I’m sure there are some who would dismiss this and say that all offenses struggle with the blitz, that’s why defenses blitz. The only problem with that is, nothing could be further from the truth. Dwayne Haskins was an impresario at making defenses pay for blitzing. So was Dan Marino. Cite your own example. It may be an uncommon skill, at least at a high level, but it exists.
That brings us to the hole in Ohio State’s swing. The offense did not make defenses pay for blitzing last year. Perhaps it would be more accurate to say that they didn’t make them pay nearly enough nor dearly enough. They may have completed 80% on 3rd and long against the blitz, but there was also a sack and a scramble short of the first down (which might as well be a sack), and none of the completions was ever for a touchdown on such plays.
Even that is misleading, because when defenses blitzed on 3rd and long, it was usually a zone blitz. Such things did not fool Justin Fields, not even a little. Against zone blitzes on 3rd down in 2019, Justin Fields was 9 of 10 for 121 yards, 0 touchdowns, 0 interceptions for a rating of 191.64. On 3rd and long when they didn’t zone blitz but rather brought 5 or more pass rushers Ohio State did not make a single first down all year.
Now that it is clear that blitzing in general was the problem (and zone blitzing was not), that begs the question of why this was a problem. This analysis uncovered a couple of possible answers.
The data gives us a hint when we look at blitzes by defensive backs. By my count this happened only 12 times on 3rd down in 2019, but admittedly it was sometimes hard to tell as the numbers of some of the blitzers weren’t readily apparent and several of our opponents had linebackers that weren’t much bigger than an average DB. On the 12 occasions when I was able to clearly identify a DB blitz there were 2 sacks, a scramble short of the first down (still might as well be a sack), and 4 for 8 passing for 27 yards, a touchdown and the one 3rd down pick thrown all year for a rating of 94.60. Granted, the sample size is small, but this data hints at something that your eyes probably told you last year. It is something that your eyes scream at you when you watch 3rd down passing, one play after another, over and over while writing down every detail over a period of days. Justin Fields and the Ohio State offensive line struggled with delayed blitzes. I’m not casting aspersions; it’s just a fact. The numbers on DB blitzes hint at this because most of the DB blitzes were either delayed blitzes or they included delayed blitzes from a linebacker.
This is not something that was lost on Ohio State’s opponents late in the year. Clemson ran delayed blitzes a lot, including on most passing-situation 3rd downs.
To Recap: Ohio State struggled (relatively speaking) on 3rd and medium because defenses blitzed a lot more on 3rd and medium. The Buckeyes struggled with the blitz, and struggled mightily with delayed blitzes. Based on the numbers, it is fortunate that defenses did not blitz more on 3rd and long.
Weird Stat: Of 8 incompletions to Hill and Olave on 3rd down, all but one occurred on a play on which the defense blitzed.
What I Wish I’d kept track of: For every play with a blitz, whether it included a delayed blitz.
Up Next: That one 3rd down…
