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2014 TSUN Football News

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lvbuckeye said:
If the line moved from -8 to -12, then the majority of the money is definitely NOT coming in on Minny. For a line to move that much, there is a HUGE disparity coming in on the Blew.
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No, it's slightly over 53% on Minny.

It's reverse line movement. It happens all the time.

Never a good sign if you are in Minnys spot
 
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Taosman said:
A lot depends on the health of their lone WR, Funchess. If he's healthy enough it won't be close.
And Minnie's starting QB is hurting and may not play.
Vegas is saying he'll play.
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They actually have two WRs on their team--see below...

devin-gardner-stretch-um-nebraska-thumb-646x429-125735.jpg


The fact that they changed this guys number and put him at QB isn't anyone's fault but theirs...
 
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NFBuck said:
God, I really want the Varmints to execute the deathblow this weekend, but the thing is, they can't beat scUM. Even when scUM is epically bad (2008), the Varmints can't get it done...6-29. When scUM's thoroughly mediocre, and coming off a drubbing to corn (2012), they can't get it done...13-35. When they're quite bad, and coming off two narrow escapes to two crap teams (2013), they can't get it done...13-42. In short, you can't count on the fucking varmints for anything. I fully expect Suga Shane to go out and be spectacularly mediocre and get credit for righting their sinking ship because minny is a [Mark May]show and scUM's defense hands them their furry asses as usual.

Fuck you, Minnesota. You suck.
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Their game is still in September- perhaps we've written off UM's September Heisman prospects too soon.
 
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NFBuck said:
The Toilet Bowl came in #4 on USAToday's list of top-10 college football venues. Here's the pic:

usatsi_8083273.jpg


Even this pic shows a swath of noticeably empty seats. Is this from last week? The opposing fans look to be wearing Utah colors...

http://fanindex.usatoday.com/2014/09/22/the-10-best-stadiums-in-college-football/
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What these pics show is luxurious spring game style spacing between people, not the sardine can approach that is usually required. Until they drop a full 20-30k under, they can get away with the lie that most of those seats are filled outside of the student section.
 
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Jaxbuck said:
No, it's slightly over 53% on Minny.

It's reverse line movement. It happens all the time.

Never a good sign if you are in Minnys spot
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Where are you getting your 53% number?
I live in Las Vegas. I'd like to think I have a handle on how this works. 53% of the BETS coming in on Minny is irrelevant. Only money moves the line. The books' goal is to have half the money on either side. Then they pay the winners with the losers' money and keep the 10% vig.

with the line moving four whole points, I'm sure there's at least two people I know who have scUM -8 AND Minny +12. Nothing better than hitting the middle.
 
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lvbuckeye said:
Where are you getting your 53% number?
I live in Las Vegas. I'd like to think I have a handle on how this works. 53% of the BETS coming in on Minny is irrelevant. Only money moves the line. The books' goal is to have half the money on either side. Then they pay the winners with the losers' money and keep the 10% vig.

with the line moving four whole points, I'm sure there's at least two people I know who have scUM -8 AND Minny +12. Nothing better than hitting the middle.
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I don't have a link but it's solid (wink).

Living out there then you know that while they try and make the middle as you described every time they don't always accomplish it, so often they get lopsided action. They are willing to take lopsided action if they think the public is on the wrong side of it. Therefore when the majority of the money is on Minny in this example and the line is moving the "wrong" way, it's an indicator.

Normally it has to be 60+% of the money on the side the line is going against to be true "reverse line movement" and like with anything else it isn't fool proof (no guarantees) but I think it definitely tells you that something is going on the public doesn't necessarily know about or at least isn't factoring in.

Paying attention to this has saved my ass more than once.
 
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Jaxbuck said:
I don't have a link but it's solid (wink).

Living out there then you know that while they try and make the middle as you described every time they don't always accomplish it, so often they get lopsided action. They are willing to take lopsided action if they think the public is on the wrong side of it. Therefore when the majority of the money is on Minny in this example and the line is moving the "wrong" way, it's an indicator.

Normally it has to be 60+% of the money on the side the line is going against to be true "reverse line movement" and like with anything else it isn't fool proof (no guarantees) but I think it definitely tells you that something is going on the public doesn't necessarily know about or at least isn't factoring in.

Paying attention to this has saved my ass more than once.
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Please condense this into a sentence that tells me who Vegas thinks sucks more. Kthksbai.
 
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Jaxbuck said:
I don't have a link but it's solid (wink).

Living out there then you know that while they try and make the middle as you described every time they don't always accomplish it, so often they get lopsided action. They are willing to take lopsided action if they think the public is on the wrong side of it. Therefore when the majority of the money is on Minny in this example and the line is moving the "wrong" way, it's an indicator.

Normally it has to be 60+% of the money on the side the line is going against to be true "reverse line movement" and like with anything else it isn't fool proof (no guarantees) but I think it definitely tells you that something is going on the public doesn't necessarily know about or at least isn't factoring in.

Paying attention to this has saved my ass more than once.
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Ah, gotcha. Honestly, I haven't made a bet since super bowl 40. All my math was right going into that game, and I lost anyway. I mean, my math was SPOT ON. I did a full differential statistical analysis and had each team within like five yards. the refs decided the winner, not the play on the field. Haven't touched it since.

Edit: come to think of it, smart money was on Northwestern against us last year, but all the action was on the Buckeyes. Then that last play happened, and the books were out a hundred million. lol
 
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lvbuckeye said:
Ah, gotcha. Honestly, I haven't made a bet since super bowl 40. All my math was right going into that game, and I lost anyway. I mean, my math was SPOT ON. I did a full differential statistical analysis and had each team within like five yards. the refs decided the winner, not the play on the field. Haven't touched it since.

Edit: come to think of it, smart money was on Northwestern against us last year, but all the action was on the Buckeyes. Then that last play happened, and the books were out a hundred million. lol
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Yeah, there are no guarantees.

I tend to stay away from NFL. Sharpest lines in sports.

I focus on MLB and NHL. I dabble in CFB, usually only B1G schools.
 
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Jaxbuck said:
I don't have a link but it's solid (wink).

Living out there then you know that while they try and make the middle as you described every time they don't always accomplish it, so often they get lopsided action. They are willing to take lopsided action if they think the public is on the wrong side of it. Therefore when the majority of the money is on Minny in this example and the line is moving the "wrong" way, it's an indicator.

Normally it has to be 60+% of the money on the side the line is going against to be true "reverse line movement" and like with anything else it isn't fool proof (no guarantees) but I think it definitely tells you that something is going on the public doesn't necessarily know about or at least isn't factoring in.

Paying attention to this has saved my ass more than once.
Click to expand...
I've seen this multiple times. Vegas runs their numbers and when media pushes people the other way then they take advantage. This means they their math has ttun winning by something like 3+ TDs. Remember week 2 when Georgia was a 5 pt favorite against SC. Georgia came off a good thorough plungering of Clemson and SC was still begging aTm to take it out of their ass. Personally I would have projected Georgia to be a 12-15 pt favorite. Vegas probably ran the numbers and had SC coming out with the win.
 
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OSUK said:
I have always struggled to find a reason to hate Minnesota. Now I have their inability to deliver the deathblow. :biggrin2:

I agree - there is no indication that they can pull it off - which will make it that much better if they do.
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Not football, but there is always the assault during a basketball game that put an Ohio State player in intensive care.
 
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