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A lot of yards have come against us in garbage time no doubt. If you watch the performance on field, we have vastly improved in nearly every area. Run defense has been incredibly stout (although we haven't faced many good rushing teams aside from Navy) and our pass defense has been the HUGE improvement, as they have faced some very good pass offenses. However, I think this week is our biggest test for the defense...MSU is very balanced and we cannot have a one dimensional gameplan. Not only are they balanced, but with good-exceptional talent at every position. Don't get me wrong, I think we are more than up to the task but it will definitely give us a proper gauge of where this defense stacks up exactly among other elite defenses...no doubt we are improved from last year but then again, last year was a complete dumpster fire.
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I'm going to disagree. I don't think MSU is that balanced. I realize what the stats say, but they remind me of a weaker version of our offense last year... after the wheels fell off the passing game.
Langford is excellent, but he's no Carlos Hyde. Lippett probably is as good as Philly and Smith. Cook is no Brax.
They've got 1 legit receiving threat: Lippett. Burbridge, Murphy, Kings... haven't produced. Their TE is the next best receiver, but like Ross noted... their offense is poor at sustained drives.
They're utterly reliant on big plays from Lippett and Langford. Take those away, and their offense wilts compared to the gaudy numbers they put up against little sisters of the poor -- as it did against Oregon. And honestly, I think this defense is better than Oregon's.
Nebraska also held them to 27 -- and they gave up several big plays to Lippett and Langford.
I expect this defense to improve on Oregon' and Nebraska's efforts.
Offense will need to score more than 17 though ... still a lot of questions there.
Langford is excellent, but he's no Carlos Hyde. Lippett probably is as good as Philly and Smith. Cook is no Brax.
They've got 1 legit receiving threat: Lippett. Burbridge, Murphy, Kings... haven't produced. Their TE is the next best receiver, but like Ross noted... their offense is poor at sustained drives.
They're utterly reliant on big plays from Lippett and Langford. Take those away, and their offense wilts compared to the gaudy numbers they put up against little sisters of the poor -- as it did against Oregon. And honestly, I think this defense is better than Oregon's.
Nebraska also held them to 27 -- and they gave up several big plays to Lippett and Langford.
I expect this defense to improve on Oregon' and Nebraska's efforts.
Offense will need to score more than 17 though ... still a lot of questions there.
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bukIpower
Head Coach
I'm with all of this... Lippett accounts for over HALF of the reception yards and the next closest is 600 yards from Lippett. It is a little more balanced rushing wise with Hill at roughly 500 and Langford at 850 or so. For some reason we don't see much double coverage in today's game but outside of him who else will they go to?
Like i said i would be very disappointed if lippett gets behind us for a big play. He is all they have through the air and if we let him get behind us ONCE it will be a disappointment. I'd kill to see what a double man on Lippett (apple+ bell) , grant straight up on their #2, and 8 in the box would do.
If you take away the run and then take away their top reciever (who averages 111 a game) it forces cook to hang onto the ball and go to route 2 (covered by our best corner) by that time I'll take my odds with Bosa, Bennett, and Washington.
All for not though... we will come out and play Lippett like he is just your average WR. I don't understand why we don't double someone like Lippett or even Watkins from last year when it's so obvious what their preference is.
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I still think they are balanced but because of the following reasons:
1) Yes, Lippett is their obvious go to guy. But look who else catches the ball...this isn't like Maryland/Rutgers/Cincy where they have two guys who get the ball. There are quite a few guys that catch the ball...behind their star is 5 double-digit catch receivers (whereas we have 6). And to that end, they have more receiving yards than we do (albeit it is only about 80 yards more but we have had a good year throwing the ball). They don't have a dynamic two, but they have enough solid guys behind Lippett to keep a defense honest and rotate.
2) Their backfield has Langford, Hill, and Williams, who are all performing well. They will keep a fresh rotation and each bring different assets to the table.
3) The offensive line. They have a solid offensive line that can pass block and run block equally well. Tied for 4th in sacks allowed and 15th in rushing yards. This point is perhaps most key because it illustrates that their offense has many pieces that all move well together. There is a reason why they are the #9 offense in the country and that is because they are not one-dimensional. They don't do anything exceptional but they do everything well.
1) Yes, Lippett is their obvious go to guy. But look who else catches the ball...this isn't like Maryland/Rutgers/Cincy where they have two guys who get the ball. There are quite a few guys that catch the ball...behind their star is 5 double-digit catch receivers (whereas we have 6). And to that end, they have more receiving yards than we do (albeit it is only about 80 yards more but we have had a good year throwing the ball). They don't have a dynamic two, but they have enough solid guys behind Lippett to keep a defense honest and rotate.
2) Their backfield has Langford, Hill, and Williams, who are all performing well. They will keep a fresh rotation and each bring different assets to the table.
3) The offensive line. They have a solid offensive line that can pass block and run block equally well. Tied for 4th in sacks allowed and 15th in rushing yards. This point is perhaps most key because it illustrates that their offense has many pieces that all move well together. There is a reason why they are the #9 offense in the country and that is because they are not one-dimensional. They don't do anything exceptional but they do everything well.
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Jagdaddy
Head Coach
This is my biggest concern. I REALLY hope that OSU mixes the look of its defensive fronts a lot. I'm not saying blitz all the time, but look like you might. I don't have time to try to run stats based on when OSU's in a vanilla 4-man straight rush vs. when they're in an odd-man front or jumping around pre-snap, but my feeling is that the latter has yielded much better results this year. Also, I haven't seen the three-man rush on 3d and medium or long muc, if at all, this year . . . and I don't want to.
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bukIpower
Head Coach
Besides the last few drives last year we had sparty at like 20 yards rushing until the 4th quarter and when you combine that with holding Leveon Bell to 50 or so rushing yards the year before I think we hold up OK against sparty.
I have no doubt this game on defense will feel a lot like the last time we played MSU in 2012 because not a ton has changed. We're going to load the box and blitz but it's just about are our blitzes going to get home and how will we respond to play action.
The revenge factor of this game will be interesting to watch though and with hearing about it all week I think we play them extremely hard. If there is ever a game where we need to drastically win Special teams this is it because we need to force them to go 80-85 yards per drive and we need to get some cheap points such as a big return. So far this year many have predicted that THIS IS THE GAME that we break one for a TD and I still think we won't have a TD return. In saying that I think this is the game where they get into the opposing territory to set up a key TD drive and we'll need it because I think we will have trouble moving the ball at times.
I have no doubt this game on defense will feel a lot like the last time we played MSU in 2012 because not a ton has changed. We're going to load the box and blitz but it's just about are our blitzes going to get home and how will we respond to play action.
The revenge factor of this game will be interesting to watch though and with hearing about it all week I think we play them extremely hard. If there is ever a game where we need to drastically win Special teams this is it because we need to force them to go 80-85 yards per drive and we need to get some cheap points such as a big return. So far this year many have predicted that THIS IS THE GAME that we break one for a TD and I still think we won't have a TD return. In saying that I think this is the game where they get into the opposing territory to set up a key TD drive and we'll need it because I think we will have trouble moving the ball at times.
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That reasoning makes no sense. We were the embodiment of 1d last year and one of the top offenses - especially on paper.
The reason they're a top offense is b/c despite their entire passing game being a 1trick pony (Lippett), it's a pretty good trick and a pretty good pony. One that bad teams can't stop.
That leads to scores like 73 against E Michigan, 56 against Wyoming, 56 against Indiana, 45 against Jacksonville State, 45 against Purdue.
The 3 WRs behind Lippett have less receptions combined than him, and about half the yardage. Take Lippett's big playmaking out of the game, and MSU's offense becomes a hot mess.
vs Oregon
1st Quarter: Lippett got nothing - MSU 0 points
2nd Quarter: 3rec 60yds 20ypc 1 TD - MSU 24 points
3rd Quarter: 2rec 28yds 14ypc - MSU 3 points
4th Quarter: 6rec 45yds 7.5ypc - MSU 0 points
vs Nebraska
1st Quarter: 1rec 55yds 55ypc 1TD - MSU 7 points
2nd Quarter: 1rec 31yds 31ypc - MSU 10 points
3rd Quarter: 1rec 18yds 18ypc
1run 32yds 32ypc 1 TD - MSU 10 points
4th Quarter: 0 - MSU 0 points
The only TD drive he didn't play a part in was Langford's 30some run for a TD (again, their entire offense depends on big plays from these 2 guys)
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We're tied for 1st in college football at limiting big plays, having had only 16 plays over 20 yards against us (monumental improvement from last year), so something will have to break.
I actually think we match up better than Oregon did against MSU, except JT will be a big x-factor with being a freshman and all. Their secondary will make mistakes and there will be open receivers, let's hope he can hit them.
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bukIpower
Head Coach
Maybe Urban will pull a coach O'Reilly from mighty ducks?? "I want lippett out, i want you to drop him like a bad habit"...
In all seriousness. I keep repeating myself (this way i think i am somehow more correct) but if I'm osu I eliminate options to force MSU to beat me with anyone other than langford and Lippett. Make Nick Hill or Price their TE (2nd leading receiver) beat us but not those guys. If it takes 2 players to lock on lippett to take him away so be it because quite frankly this year i beg for them to throw anywhere near Lee or someone like Bell when shooting for Price.
You watch though, if we could start a Vbet on the longest catch Lippett will have i would go all in on a 40+ yarder. I bitch all week about not giving up a big hitter to this one guy so it would be only fitting for me to be completely besides myself.
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Ok and what have we done against big play receivers even though we knew they were coming? Diggs we did well against but that was with zero threat of a run game...and Cincy we got burned terribly (again, with zero threat of a run game). We haven't faced a team that has a running and catching threat...that will be a test. The only team with a run threat was Navy, who had zero threat passing. We have faced multiple passing threat teams, all with zero run threat. Penn State was just a bad offense with a good QB that played us at night...and at that, zero run threat.
MSU is the only team that can do both effectively, no matter how you slice the numbers. I still expect our defense to rise to the challenge with what I have seen on the field, but I am just saying what we are facing on defense is nothing remotely like we have seen this year.
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After a Might Ducks marathon on Netflix, that hit the spot with me. Tony Lippett = Adam Banks.
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Diggs really didn't do much (7 catches, but his second-lowest ypc this season), and of the three times we got burned against Cincy, two were because of shit coverage on short slants and one that was well-covered but Bell didn't turn for the ball. The coverage has been tightened up, the secondary has gained valuable experience, and there hasn't been many big pass plays against us since.
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All good points ... I just think both those games provide a blueprint on how to stop MSU: 1. limit Lippett's big plays (he'll probably still get one); 2. contain Langford.
Whether we can do it... well, I'd point to the numbers but as you say those were all against pretty terrible offenses as well. So I've just got Scarlet-tinted glasses in that respect =)
Still, I believe (expect) this defense can hold MSU to 27 or less points... I'm more concerned about the offense getting more than 17 banged up in a hostile environment =/
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