The man is right
Full confession: I set about this morning trying to prove Jim Tressel wrong.
His premise about quarterbacks putting "no turnovers" before "making plays" on his order of priorities drives many people crazy. They look at Terrelle Pryor's 110-yards a game passing numbers last season and don't give a whit that he only threw 4 interceptions -- they want to see plays made, not bad plays not made, if that makes sense.
My thought was that while Tressel successfully avoids turnovers, he also avoids giving his quarterbacks the confidence to air it out and use their natural talent to the full potential. So yes, he may win games by being careful with the ball, but has he lost games because he played too conservatively and denied his QB the chance to build a bigger lead (such as Penn State last year?)
I broke down the past four years, 2005-2008, and charted turnover margin and interceptions thrown in each game. Here's what I found:
OVERALL RECORD: 43-8 (.843)
WHEN OSU HAS A PLUS TURNOVER RATIO: 23-1
WHEN RATIO IS EVEN: 7-0
WHEN OSU LOSES TURNOVER RATIO: 13-7.
In 43 wins, OSU was plus-23 in turnovers (plus .53 a game)
In 8 losses, OSU was minus-13 (minus 1.63 a game)
In 43 wins, OSU threw 21 INTs (.49 a game)
In 8 losses, OSU threw 10 INTs (1.25 a game).
Bottom line: My premise was wrong. Tressel is right.
When the Buckeyes are even or better in the turnover battle, they have lost just once in 31 games (to Texas in 2005, when they were plus-2).
When the Buckeyes lost the turnover battle, they won at only a 65-percent clip, or nearly 20 percent less than their overall record in that span.
So my conclusion is that like it or not, fans had better just get used to the fact that Tressel will play careful offensive football, first and foremost. It's one of his absolute, core, rock-solid beliefs about the game of football.
More important, it wins.
Posted by Ken Gordon on April 3, 2009 11:10 AM | Permalink