2006 Pre-Season TOP 10??

[BayBuck]

Are you really as slow as you're obviously intending to act, or are you just trying to argumentative? I'm not saying there will be more than two undefeateds. I'm saying that our running the table does not automatically get us in the Fiesta Bowl as you explicitly say it will. I even showed an example of a team that finished their regular season undefeated and still didn't get into the title game that year (Auburn) because two other teams that started out ranked ahead of them also finished undefeated. The only real way to avoid having two other undefeateds finish ranked ahead of you when you're also undefeated is for you to start out ranked ahead of them. I can't explain it any simpler than that.

I didn't say the Fiesta is an automatic if we run the table, but as a somewhat knowledgeable CFB observer I'm saying I don't see the nightmare scenario you describe as very likely at all.

And the polls are not all that determines who gets in to the BCS title game: there's also the computers, and I find it extremely unlikely they will ever put WV (among the more likely unbeatens) ahead of us.

Please don't simplify things on my account. I understand what you're saying perfectly, but I tend to think it's a moot argument because 1) we will likely start the season top-2, and 2) we won't see 3 major unbeatens this year. Like I said, I'll eat even your hat if 12-0 OSU doesn't go to the Fiesta next January.

 

[High Lonesome]

Well, we're no Auburn--but do you really think leaving it up to the preseason voters is any more meaningful than leaving it up to the BCS?

This is what I think.

1)Preseason polls are bullshit but they will be around as long as tv is run by ratings.

2)the bcs is a joke and i don't trust it for anything.

3) an undefeated team will not always play for the NC(auburn).

4)The top two ranked teams in the BCS will always play for the NC.

5)Polls make up a significant portion of the BCS

6)Vary rarely will an undefeated team in the polls jump another undefeated team

Because of numbers 3, 4, 5, and 6 I find it absolutely amazing that anyone would ever want to start anywhere other than the top two spots in the preseason polls.

While I understand that many people like the underdog mentality(hell its the american way) this is a case where you must be carefull what you wish for because you just might get it.


rant over

 

[MililaniBuckeye]

I didn't say the Fiesta is an automatic if we run the table, but as a somewhat knowledgeable CFB observer I'm saying I don't see the nightmare scenario you describe as very likely at all.

...

Like I said, I'll eat even your hat if 12-0 OSU doesn't go to the Fiesta next January.

You said, quote:

If we run the table, including a win at Texas and 8-0 in Big10, I contend that we will be in the BCS title game regardless of anything else

You can't eat my hat...I paid too much for it.

 

[BB73]

This is what I think.

1)Preseason polls are bullshit but they will be around as long as tv is run by ratings.

2)the bcs is a joke and i don't trust it for anything.

3) an undefeated team will not always play for the NC(auburn).

4)The top two ranked teams in the BCS will always play for the NC.

5)Polls make up a significant portion of the BCS

6)Vary rarely will an undefeated team in the polls jump another undefeated team

Because of numbers 3, 4, 5, and 6 I find it absolutely amazing that anyone would ever want to start anywhere other than the top two spots in the preseason polls.

While I understand that many people like the underdog mentality(hell its the american way) this is a case where you must be carefull what you wish for because you just might get it.


rant over

I agree with most of your post, HL, but the BCS allowed Texas to play USC in the Rose Bowl. That was preferable to USC beating Penn State in the Rose Bowl, and Texas failing to jump them in the polls after pasting ND in the Fiesta; which was a very possible scenario under the old system.

 

[BayBuck]

I said, quote, "I contend"

I didn't say it's automatic or guaranteed or otherwise set in stone, all I said was that regardless of where we start or who else does what, my contention (synonym for 'argument') is that 12-0 OSU will be in the Fiesta.

And since your hat is off-limits, if I'm wrong I'll eat all your Hell's Satans sweatshirts and pogs.

 

[EdDantes22]

Wow, Carnack, you know everything. News flash...the human polls still make up a huge portion of the BCS standings, and that a difference between the BCS standings and the human polls, near the top, are actually rare. Also, how can you "guarantee" we'll by higher in the computer polls than WVU? You have no idea how the computers will rack-and-stack teams. Lastly, if we're ranked #5 going into Texas, and we beat them in a close game, and the four teams above us also win, you really think we'll jump everyone but the #1 team? Put the bong down...

Well, Nostradamus, considering the computers use strength of schedule as a heavy component in their equations, I'd say that, barring some sort of miraculous season for the Big East and a total collapse from the Big Ten, OSU has the trump card in that area. Everything else being roughly equal (record, margin of victory, etc.), OSU wins out in the computer rankings. My guess is you pretty much agree with this.

If you have a problem with me "guaranteeing" something, realize that such speculation is obviously hyperbolic. No one can guarantee anything, really, but I'm guessing there will be a good 20 more made on these boards today. Sarcastically labeling them all as self-appointed psychics and pointing out that no one can tell the future is hardly profound.

 

[MililaniBuckeye]

Well, Nostradamus, considering the computers use strength of schedule as a heavy component in their equations, I'd say that, barring some sort of miraculous season for the Big East and a total collapse from the Big Ten, OSU has the trump card in that area. Everything else being roughly equal (record, margin of victory, etc.), OSU wins out in the computer rankings. My guess is you pretty much agree with this.

And the computer portion is still quite minor compared to the human polls. The difference in SOS between OSU and WVU would have to be enormous for it to make any difference in the actual BCS rankings, and even then that's if the difference in human polls is only one position...if it's more than one postion (e.g., WVU #1, OSU #3 in both human polls) then there's no amount of SOS differential that would allow us to catch them. Try again, Carnac...

 

[EdDantes22]

And the computer portion is still quite minor compared to the human polls. The difference in SOS between OSU and WVU would have to be enormous for it to make any difference in the actual BCS rankings, and even then that's if the difference in human polls is only one position...if it's more than one postion (e.g., WVU #1, OSU #3 in both human polls) then there's no amount of SOS differential that would allow us to catch them. Try again, Carnac...

If our better SOS is what puts us over WVU in the computer polls, then even a small amount of SOS difference would certainly affect the BCS. The composite of the computer polls counts for 1/3; in other words, it has the same weight as one human poll. If nothing else, that would break a tie in the human polls (if OSU and WVU were flipflopped, for example).

Anyway, there's a reason that, as you said, there's usually little difference between the computer polls and the human polls at the end of the year. It's because human beings, just like the computers, take things like strength of schedule into account. Also, tOSU's reputation alone is enough to propel them past WVU in the human polls should both teams go undefeated. In all likelihood, tOSU will be ranked ahead of the mountaineers to start the year, so the point is moot. ESPN picked WVU #1, but that's because they're trying to be provocative and they get more credit from their readers for making a controversial pick.

Here's a good question: assuming we begin the season ranked somewhere in the top, let's say, 7 in the country, what do you think the odds are that we'd be left out of the NC game if we go undefeated?

I'd say about 100 to 1.

 

[JXC]

And the computer portion is still quite minor compared to the human polls. The difference in SOS between OSU and WVU would have to be enormous for it to make any difference in the actual BCS rankings, and even then that's if the difference in human polls is only one position...if it's more than one postion (e.g., WVU #1, OSU #3 in both human polls) then there's no amount of SOS differential that would allow us to catch them. Try again, Carnac...

Well it's not about where you are ranked, more so how many votes you get. If #1 has 1340 points and #3 and 1300 points...that's really close. Also, the human polls seems to take SOS into account. When Ohio State beats teams like Texas, Iowa, Penn State, and Michigan...they will inch closer and closer to WV if WV starts ahead of them...because WV doesn't play those teams.


And about Auburn...they started out that season ranked REALLY low...not like 5th...and they are Auburn...not Ohio State. Name recognition gets you a lot in college football.

But like I said before...I could care less. 12-0 is 12-0. If we go to the Rose Bowl, that'd be fine with me. I guess i'm just old fashoned...but to me it's about winning the Big 10...and the National Championship is just a bonus.

 

[jwinslow]

But like I said before...I could care less. 12-0 is 12-0. If we go to the Rose Bowl, that'd be fine with me. I guess i'm just old fashoned...but to me it's about winning the Big 10...and the National Championship is just a bonus.

pretty sure none ofi the players would agree with you

 

[BB73]

Every spot on each voter's ballot now matters in the BCS. The 2/3 component of the BCS based on poll rankings are a percentage of the maximum possible points received. (I'm guessing the formula won't change since year, since they get criticized every time they change it, and they had a clear #2 vs #2 this year).

If tOSU only has a close road loss to Texas, every point in the human polls will be important in order to have a chance to jump an undefeated Louisville or West Virginia in the BCS, if the computer polls place tOSU ahead of the undefeated team with a weak schedule.

And a 1-loss tOSU team is also in a beauty contest with all of the other 1-loss teams, and every vote counts.

Personally, I'd rather have the Buckeyes be a 1-loss team in the NC game than an undefeated #3 team in the Rose Bowl. The 2003 LSU team will be more remembered historically than the 2004 Auburn squad.

So bring on those preseason #1 votes. And the associated buzz also helps on the recruiting front.

 

[JXC]

Personally, I'd rather have the Buckeyes be a 1-loss team in the NC game than an undefeated #3 team in the Rose Bowl.

I respect this position...but I feel different. It'd be interesting to see how most people feel.

 

[Bucklion]

I respect this position...but I feel different. It'd be interesting to see how most people feel.

I agree with your position...I just want our guys to win every week. Below that, conference play (the dUMb game goes without saying) was always more important to me. If we go 12-0 or whatever, and some butt-socket media types or bowl people don't have us playing for the title, then that sucks, but it is what it is. Winning the conference is huge with me...always has been.

 

[EdDantes22]

I agree with your position...I just want our guys to win every week. Below that, conference play (the dUMb game goes without saying) was always more important to me. If we go 12-0 or whatever, and some butt-socket media types or bowl people don't have us playing for the title, then that sucks, but it is what it is. Winning the conference is huge with me...always has been.

This isn't the old days anymore when winning the Big Ten was everything. College football is much more of a national sport now. The best teams recruit prospects from all across the country and fans in Big Ten Country are as familiar with the USC star players as the fans in LA. Winning the conference is important (and you'd likely need to win your conference to go to the NC), but I'd take a loss and a chance to play for the national title over an undefeated and unfulfilled season anytime. How anyone could disagree with that is beyond me.

 

[Bucklion]

This isn't the old days anymore when winning the Big Ten was everything. College football is much more of a national sport now. The best teams recruit prospects from all across the country and fans in Big Ten Country are as familiar with the USC star players as the fans in LA. Winning the conference is important (and you'd likely need to win your conference to go to the NC), but I'd take a loss and a chance to play for the national title over an undefeated and unfulfilled season anytime. How anyone could disagree with that is beyond me.

Uh, really? This isn't the olden days? Damn, better sell all my disco 8-tracks then. What you apparently don't understand is that an unbeaten season is not "unfulfilled" in the eyes of a whole lot of people. If you win all of your games, that's all you can do. I don't give a crap if ESPN or John Saunders or some TPW with an AP ballot thinks we're national champions or not. Newsflash: there is no official recognized NCAA national championship in I-A football (and no, the BCS doesn't count)...if the boys go out and win everything put in front of them, that's all they could ever do....how anyone could not think THAT is what is beyond me.