2006 BCS, polls, Bowl Predictions and computer ratings

[lvbuckeye]

has anyone stopped to think about the implications if the Arkansas Razorbacks continue to win, and finish their season as 12-1 and SEC Champs?

 

[osugrad21]

CBS



Sunday 7: Buckeyes, Wolverines nearly ruin things

Nov. 5, 2006
By Dennis Dodd
CBS SportsLine.com Senior Writer
[FONT=Arial, Helvetica]

[/FONT] [FONT=Arial, Helvetica] Seven things we learned Sunday: [/FONT]

Should coach Jim Tressel be concerned about his Buckeyes? (Getty Images) [FONT=Arial, Helvetica] Skipping the prelims is not an option: Both Ohio State and Michigan admitted they were looking ahead. Maybe the real surprise is that Illinois and Ball State had it in them to challenge King Kong and Godzilla. [/FONT]
[FONT=Arial, Helvetica] Admit it, having to watch these Big Ten mismatches before The Big Game on Nov. 18 was getting tedious. Apparently, the Bucks and Wolves agreed. [/FONT]
[FONT=Arial, Helvetica] "I think that is a lot of the reason why we weren't focused," said Michigan's Chad Henne. The Wolverines survived a late scare to beat The Fighting Lettermans of Ball State 34-26. [/FONT]
[FONT=Arial, Helvetica] Lloyd Carr played the second-team defense for much of the second half, then almost got burned when the Cardinals crept to within eight. [/FONT]
[FONT=Arial, Helvetica] "Had we lost the game you all would have had a good time with that one," Carr told reporters. [/FONT]
[FONT=Arial, Helvetica] Fun for us, a poisoned pet or two for you, smart guy. [/FONT]
[FONT=Arial, Helvetica] Ohio State seemed flat-out bored, building up a 17-0 lead on Illinois before winning 17-10. Troy Smith had his worst game of the season (108 yards) and the Illini actually outgained the Buckeyes 233-224. [/FONT]
[FONT=Arial, Helvetica] "We knew this was their one and only chance to have a little bit of glory, to knock off Ohio State," Ohio State defensive end Jay Richardson told reporters. "We knew they weren't just going to roll over for us." So what are we to make of next week? Both teams are on the road against the quasi-conscious -- Ohio State at Northwestern and Michigan at Indiana. [/FONT]
[FONT=Arial, Helvetica] Regardless, can we please get rid of the stupid "countdown" to the Ohio State-Michigan game. I really don't care if there are 340 hours left until kickoff. I have a calendar. [/FONT]
[FONT=Arial, Helvetica] Wake Forest is the team of the week, no, year!: This is getting really cool. Now Wake is 8-1 for the first time since 1944 and has the best record in the ACC. It beat Boston College 21-14 in one of the biggest games in its history. It is only one fourth-quarter collapse away (against Clemson) from being undefeated. [/FONT]
[FONT=Arial, Helvetica] Dodd's Power Poll
1. Ohio State 2. Michigan 3. Louisville 4. Texas 5. Auburn 6. Florida 7. USC 8. West Virginia 9. Notre Dame 10. Cal 11. Rutgers 12. Wake Forest 13. Arkansas 14. LSU 15. Boise State 16. Wisconsin 17. Oklahoma 18. Tennessee 19. Georgia Tech 20. Virginia Tech 21. Oregon 22. Boston College 23. Nebraska 24. Maryland 25. BYU [/FONT]
[FONT=Arial, Helvetica] How is this happening? Wake started a wide receiver at tailback. The defense surrendered 402 passing yards to the ACC's total offense leader (Matt Ryan). Wake's stadium capacity (33,000) would equal a new low at a Nebraska spring game. Coach Jim Grobe can't get mentioned for any job openings but right now is the nation's coach of the year. The Darling Deacons are tied with Maryland for the Atlantic Division lead. Who among us projected that the ACC's biggest game might be Wake Forest at Maryland on Nov. 25? [/FONT]
[FONT=Arial, Helvetica] Me, actually, about five weeks ago. [/FONT]
[FONT=Arial, Helvetica] Let's go to Bubba on Line 1: It should be an outstanding week of talk radio in Tuscaloosa and Athens. [/FONT]
[FONT=Arial, Helvetica] Fans of the Crimson Tide and Bulldogs no doubt will want to shower praise on the football coaches at the local universities. [/FONT]
[FONT=Arial, Helvetica] The prospects for Alabama and Georgia do indeed seem bright after fine efforts on Saturday against Mississippi State and Kentucky. [/FONT]
[FONT=Arial, Helvetica] Boise State is in: Lost in the shuffle is the fact that Boise all but clinched a spot in the BCS on Saturday. [/FONT]
[FONT=Arial, Helvetica] Provided they win their last three against San Jose State, Utah State and Nevada, the Broncos now have a clear road to the Fiesta Bowl. Wake Forest's victory over Maryland actually made it more likely. [/FONT]
[FONT=Arial, Helvetica] A non-AQ (non-automatic qualifier) has to finish in the top 12 of the BCS standings to get in. That standard changes to top 16 if it the non-AQ finishes higher than the champion of a BCS league. The highest rated ACC team in the BCS standings is Georgia Tech at 18th. Boise State is 14th. [/FONT]
[FONT=Arial, Helvetica] Party on, Broncos. [/FONT]
[FONT=Arial, Helvetica] The BCS bowl lineup became clearer: Tennessee's loss to LSU made it less likely that the SEC is going to snag a second BCS berth. There are three one-loss SEC teams left -- Florida, Arkansas and Auburn. [/FONT]
[FONT=Arial, Helvetica] Strike two off the list as second BCS teams. One of those will win the SEC and play in the Sugar Bowl. The loser would be eliminated from a BCS bowl with a second loss (at least). [/FONT]
[FONT=Arial, Helvetica] The best-case scenario for the league is for Arkansas to win out and play in the SEC title game. Then for Auburn to finish second in the SEC West and wind up 11-1. Then it most likely becomes a pick 'em for the Orange Bowl between the Tigers and West Virginia. [/FONT]
[FONT=Arial, Helvetica] Florida clinched the SEC East for the first time since 2000 by beating Vanderbilt. Arkansas moved a step closer to clinching the SEC West by defeating South Carolina. [/FONT]
[FONT=Arial, Helvetica] Projecting the BCS bowls four weeks out: [/FONT]
[FONT=Arial, Helvetica] BCS title game: Ohio State vs. Louisville.
Fiesta Bowl: Texas vs. Boise State.
Rose Bowl: Michigan vs. USC.
Sugar Bowl: Florida vs. Notre Dame.
Orange Bowl: Georgia Tech vs. West Virginia or Auburn. [/FONT]
[FONT=Arial, Helvetica] The latest from the knucklehead file: This is why we refuse to call them student-athletes -- because they are exploited, indentured profit machines who can, at any moment, freak and soil the university's reputation. [/FONT]
[FONT=Arial, Helvetica] Pittsburgh's Darrell Strong ruined his team's chance for a comeback after making an obscene gesture to the South Florida crowd. Strong caught a late 19-yard touchdown pass that cut the lead 22-12. But any chance for a two-point conversion to make it a one-possession game was damaged by the ensuing 15-yard unsportsmanlike conduct penalty. [/FONT]
[FONT=Arial, Helvetica] Coach Dave Wannstedt suspended Strong indefinitely after the game. There were the requisite apologies (including one from Strong), but the damage was done. Pittsburgh had to attempt the two-point conversion from the 18 and failed. [/FONT]
[FONT=Arial, Helvetica] "He knows you can't do stupid stuff like that," Panthers cornerback Darrelle Revis said told the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. "We're all fighting to try and get back in the game, just go do your job." [/FONT]
[FONT=Arial, Helvetica] Wannstedt called it "a selfish act." [/FONT]
[FONT=Arial, Helvetica] Ya think? [/FONT]
[FONT=Arial, Helvetica] The identity of the next coach to be fired: Iowa State's Dan McCarney is the dean of Big 12 coaches. He's a great guy, good to the media, loves children, is kind to pets and once won nine games with the Cyclones. [/FONT]
[FONT=Arial, Helvetica] That was a long time ago (2000). [/FONT]
[FONT=Arial, Helvetica] However, some time very soon he will be next in line to get The Big Haircut. Kansas rolled Iowa State by 31 on Saturday keeping the 'Clones (3-7, 0-6) winless in the league. [/FONT]

 

[Mike80]

has anyone stopped to think about the implications if the Arkansas Razorbacks continue to win, and finish their season as 12-1 and SEC Champs?

I don't know if they will be able to jump over Auburn or USC (assuming they both win out) in the BCS if that happens....

 

[lvbuckeye]

I don't know if they will be able to jump over Auburn or USC (assuming they both win out) in the BCS if that happens....

true, however Arkansas would get an outright BCS bid, which would mean that Florida/Auburn/Tenncleat/LSU could all quite possibly be shut out of the BCS.

also, i don't think USC runs the table from here out.i think that either Oregon (possible, though not likely), ND (heaven forbid!) or Cal (best chance) will hand the Trojans their second loss...

 

[Mike80]

true, however Arkansas would get an outright BCS bid, which would mean that Florida/Auburn/Tenncleat/LSU could all quite possibly be shut out of the BCS.

also, i don't think USC runs the table from here out.i think that either Oregon (possible, though not likely), ND (heaven forbid!) or Cal (best chance) will hand the Trojans their second loss...

And if Cal wins, they get the BCS slot.

I don't see Arkansas jumping them either for whatever it's worth....

This is part and parcel why we need a playoff. Arkansas started the year unranked and lost early but might win the SEC outright and has too much ground to make up to get into the NC game unless something REALLY screwy happens.

 

[Adam Locked]

If OSU wins out I hope they get to play The Ville, and shut them down like 66-0, that way people will STFU about the Big East for the next 10 years.

 

[Mike80]

If OSU wins out I hope they get to play The Ville, and shut them down like 66-0, that way people will STFU about the Big East for the next 10 years.

That would be nice....

 

[osugrad21]

Link

Cards look good to make run at BCS title game


RALPH D. RUSSO - The Associated Press NEW YORK -- Louisville is looking good.
The Cardinals (8-0) surged into third place in the Bowl Championship Series standings Sunday, putting some distance between themselves and the other title contenders.
Louisville has four games left, three against teams with winning records, and it looks as if the Cardinals are a good bet to earn a spot in the national championship game if they stay unbeaten.
Ohio State (10-0) and Michigan (10-0) remained at the top of the BCS standings, despite ugly wins on Saturday, and on course to meet Nov. 18 in Columbus with a bid to the Jan. 8 title game in Glendale, Ariz., on the line.
But the Cardinals were the big winners this week. Their 44-34 victory over West Virginia, last week's third-place team, gave them the necessary boost to jump over fourth-place Florida. And with another big game Thursday night at undefeated Rutgers, the Cardinals are in position to get another bump up with a victory.
Louisville was third in the latest Harris poll, fourth in the coaches' poll and third in the computer rankings for a BCS average of .8907. Each of those components account for one-third of a BCS average.
Ohio State is an overwhelming No. 1 in the polls and second in the computers. Michigan is second in the polls but first in the computers.
Once-beaten Florida stayed in fourth with an average of .8017, and Texas (.7998) made a big jump from seventh to fifth, just a shade behind the Gators.
Auburn (.7814) is not far behind in sixth, followed by USC, California, Notre Dame and West Virginia.
In The Associated Press Top 25, Ohio State is No. 1 followed by Michigan, Louisville, Texas and Auburn.
The Fighting Irish are still one spot behind where they need to be in the BCS standings at the end of the regular season to earn automatic entry into the five multimillion dollar bowl games.
Boise State is 14th for a second consecutive week, two spots behind the top 12 that would give the Broncos an automatic BCS bid. But if the season ended today, Boise State would be in because it ranks in the top 16 and has a better BCS average than any Atlantic Coast Conference team.
If the unbeaten Broncos stay in the top 16 and finish ahead of the ACC champion, they'll become the first Western Athletic Conference team to earn a BCS bid.
Georgia Tech is currently the highest rated ACC team in the BCS standings in 18th place.
The champions of the Big East, Big Ten, Big 12, ACC, Southeastern Conference and Pac-10 receive automatic bids to the BCS.

 

[osugrad21]

CPD

NATIONAL INSIDER



Louisville makes run for title game



Monday, November 06, 2006 Doug Lesmerises

Plain Dealer Reporter
When John L. Smith arrived as the head coach at Louisville in 1998, the Cardinals were coming off a 1-10 season and hadn't gone to a bowl in four years. When Smith left Louisville for Michigan State, he was 41-21 in five seasons there, with five bowl appearances. Now he's been fired by Michigan State, and Petrino, his protege and former assistant at Idaho, Utah State and Louisville, has a shot at a national title. Oh, the lure of the Big Ten.
4. Blind squirrel, meet nut
This is the point where we should remind you that a certain someone picked Louisville to reach the national title game. But we're passing on that opportunity because Louisville's predicted opponent was Notre Dame (maybe not a terrible guess) but Iowa, now with a 2-4 conference record, was chosen to win the Big Ten (should lead to journalistic NCAA probation).
5. Unanimous at last
The most voracious Buckeyes fans know it was two writers from California who had been casting No. 1 votes for West Virginia, keeping Ohio State from being a unanimous No. 1 in the Associated Press poll. With the Mountaineers' loss, OSU received all 65 first-place AP votes this week, and the Buckeyes already had been getting all 63 votes in the coaches poll. Of 242 voters in the three major polls, there remains just one holdout - a Harris poll voter who chose Louisville No. 1 this week.
Hard to believe there's not a single Michigan believer out there, because a solid argument for the Wolverines could be made. With Ohio State's tight win at Illinois, the Wolverines probably would have earned some No. 1 votes if they'd beaten Ball State by more than eight.
6. Bobcats or Buckeyes?
Illinois might have a tough time determining the best team in Ohio. Ohio State beat Illinois, 17-10, Saturday, while 7-3 Ohio University beat Illinois, 20-17, on Oct. 14. The quarterback comparison is tight, too. Troy Smith threw for 108 yards in Champaign, while Ohio quarterback Austen Everson threw for 106.

 

[osugrad21]

CPD

DOUG'S TOP 25



Monday, November 06, 2006

Here is Plain Dealer reporter Doug Lesmerises' Top 25: 1. Ohio State, 2. Michigan, 3. Louisville, 4. Florida, 5. California, 6. Texas, 7. Arkansas, 8. Auburn, 9. Notre Dame, 10. Southern Cal, 11. Rutgers, 12. Boise State, 13. LSU, 14. Oklahoma, 15. Tennessee, 16. West Virginia, 17. Wake Forest, 18. Wisconsin, 19. Georgia Tech, 20. Boston College, 21. Virginia Tech, 22. BYU, 23. Oregon, 24. Maryland, 25. Oregon State.

 

[osugrad21]

Link

A title shot in cards?
If Louisville can win its last four games, it just might survive BCS formula

November 6, 2006
BY HERB GOULD Staff Reporter
The defense rested against West Virginia, but that didn't stop Louisville from putting itself in position for a berth in the Bowl Championship Series title game in the standings released Sunday. Bolstered by their 44-34 shootout victory over the Mountaineers on Thursday, the Cardinals moved up to No. 3 in the latest BCS standings.
If Louisville can win its last four games, starting with a potentially tough trip to unbeaten Rutgers on Thursday, it could survive the BCS formula and play the Ohio State-Michigan winner in the national title game Jan. 8 in Glendale, Ariz.
But that's not a done deal. A one-loss team such as Florida, Texas or USC could slip ahead of the Cardinals because the BCS formula is weighted in favor of its two human polls, which are far less predictable than the computer rankings.
''I think Louisville has the inside track if it wins out,'' BCS analyst Jerry Palm said. ''But if the voters feel strongly enough, there isn't anything the computers can do about it. And you can't count on the voters to do what you expect them to do.''
Louisville, which rose from fifth to third in the BCS standings, may have been shaky on defense Thursday. But Florida, which remained fourth, did not help itself, either, with an unimposing 25-19 victory at Vanderbilt.
Top-ranked Ohio State, which slipped past Illinois 17-10, and No. 2 Michigan, which struggled to beat Ball State 34-26, also had their troubles Saturday.
The Buckeyes, who had been looking unbeatable, certainly didn't look that way in escaping from Champaign by seven points, their closest call of the season.
They were shut out in the second half, managing only 29 yards with an offense that features several future NFL players and Heisman front-runner Troy Smith at quarterback.
''He's a great player,'' Illinois coach Ron Zook said. ''But we were able to put pressure on him with a controlled rush. You have to stay in front of him and keep him in the pocket.''
The Illini came up with three sacks and six hurries against Smith, who had been sacked only nine times in the Buckeyes' first nine games.
To Zook, Illinois' success was not a magic formula that Northwestern and Michigan might be able to copy the next two weeks against Ohio State. The key, he said, was execution by the fired-up Illini.
If the Buckeyes weren't as sharp in Champaign as they have been, that could be attributable to several factors, including a long season extracting its toll and opponents spotting flaws on game tapes.
Michigan and Florida also had subpar performances Saturday. The previous week, Texas and Auburn had more trouble than expected, while USC lost at Oregon State.
Amid the concerns, Ohio State received all 65 first-place votes in the Associated Press poll and is that poll's first unanimous No. 1 during the regular season in three years, since Oklahoma on Nov. 30, 2003.
''Obviously, we've got to get better,'' Buckeyes coach Jim Tressel said. ''But we said the same thing when the game was 44-3 [against Indiana]. It's a Big Ten victory on the road. That's huge.''

 

[lvbuckeye]

This is part and parcel why we need a playoff.

spare me the hyperbole on that front. NC contenders don't get dumped 50-14 at home a la Arkansas or walloped 35-18 on the road a la Cal in their openers... i was only mentioning Arkansas because everyone seems so dead set that Florida will beat them in the SEC title game... and the Hogs even making the SECCG isn't a given...

 

[BB73]

These BCS standings are misleading, since they don't go to 4 decimal points. There is 1 Harris poll voter that went with Louisville at #1, so tOSU is actually .9996 in that component.

__________________

 

[NightmaresDad]

Man, the computers are killing Texas!
I guess the Big12 South is much weaker than the Big East this year.

 

[bkochmc]

If Louisville loses this Thursday Texas will be #3 in the BCS as they will gain some points in the computer polls... just another spot or two in one of the computer polls would move them ahead of Florida.