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2006 BCS, polls, Bowl Predictions and computer ratings

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If the #3 BCS team is still one of the Big East schools by the time The Game rolls around, those OSU-scUM rematch theories will start to look better. I'd have to think that a close scUM loss would drop them no worse than 4 in the human polls, and the computers might favor them over UL or WVU.

Florida can't go anywhere but up, though. One BE team will drop below them in the human polls, and an SEC title game is only going to help their computer numbers. My bet is that as long as they win out, they'll be sitting at #2. Gator fans have to be rooting hard for UL this week, for sure.

Auburn's loss to Arkie is really costing them if they miss the SEC title game, which is how it looks now. They would need to be in that game and to win in order to move up.
 
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BuckeyeNation27;647258; said:
Cal is seriously underrated by the BCS. They would stomp the hell out of NA.
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I think so....

They will rip USC's heart out in a couple weeks too unless USC finds the consistency of the last few years.

Cal is the best team in the Pac 10. If they had played Tennessee on the 2nd weekend of the season and not the first, I think they have a much better shot of winning that game.
 
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I looked to see if someone mentioned this already and didn't see it. Correct me if I'm wrong, but if LSU beats Arkansas, shouldnt Auburn and Florida play each other in the SEC title game?

If so, how cool is it that all six of the top six teams in the BCS play another one of the top six teams in a conference game before the end of the season?
 
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OmahaBeef;647331; said:
I looked to see if someone mentioned this already and didn't see it. Correct me if I'm wrong, but if LSU beats Arkansas, shouldnt Auburn and Florida play each other in the SEC title game?

If so, how cool is it that all six of the top six teams in the BCS play another one of the top six teams in a conference game before the end of the season?
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Arkansas owns the tiebreaker over Auburn, so Arkansas would have to lose two games for Auburn to get to the SEC CCG.
 
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methomps;647334; said:
Arkansas owns the tiebreaker over Auburn, so Arkansas would have to lose two games for Auburn to get to the SEC CCG.
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I forgot they also play Tennessee. So if they lose both of these games they'll play in the SEC CCG? That would be so cool.
 
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ABJ

Big East powers rise as USC falls

Mountaineers, Cardinals to face off. Trojans drop from No. 3 to No. 9

By Ralph D. Russo

Associated Press

Thanks to USC's fall, the pivotal game between West Virginia and Louisville will be the first top-five matchup for the rebuilt Big East.
The third-ranked Mountaineers and fifth-ranked Cardinals each moved up a spot in The Associated Press Top 25 on Sunday. The two unbeatens were off last week and play Thursday night in Louisville.
Southern California's 33-31 upset loss to Oregon State on Saturday opened up a spot in the top five. USC dropped from No. 3 to No. 9 after its first regular-season loss since falling 34-31 in triple overtime to California on Sept. 27, 2003. The last time the Trojans were ranked lower in the media poll was after that loss to Cal, when they were 10th.
No. 1 Ohio State and No. 2 Michigan remained on top of the AP poll.
The Buckeyes have been No. 1 all season. They received 63 of 65 first-place votes. The Wolverines were second for a third consecutive week. The Big Ten rivals meet Nov. 18 in Columbus.
In between West Virginia, which received two first-place votes, and Louisville is No. 4 Texas, which rallied from three touchdowns behind to beat Texas Tech 35-31 on Saturday night.
The rise of West Virginia and Louisville is a boon to the Big East.
The conference lost perennial national championship contenders Miami and Virginia Tech to the Atlantic Coast Conference three seasons ago in a move that severely damaged the Big East's reputation. Boston College followed the Hokies and Hurricanes the next season.
Louisville, along with Cincinnati and South Florida, was brought in from Conference USA last year by the Big East to make up for the losses.
Now, in the second season of the new-look Big East, the Cardinals and Mountaineers have replaced Miami and Virginia Tech as the league's two national title contenders.
No. 15 Rutgers was the third ranked team from the Big East.
No. 6 Auburn, No. 7 Florida and No. 8 Tennessee gave the Southeastern Conference three top-10 teams for a third consecutive week.
No. 9 USC is followed by two of its remaining opponents: No. 10 California and No. 11 Notre Dame.
The first nine teams in the USA Today coaches' poll were the same as the AP's.
In the AP poll, No. 12 Arkansas and No. 13 LSU gave the SEC five ranked teams, tied with the ACC (No. 16 Boston College, No. 19 Clemson, No. 20 Georgia Tech, No. 22 Wake Forest and No. 23 Virginia Tech) for the most by one conference.
Unbeaten Boise State of the Western Athletic Conference was 14th and the only team from outside the six conferences with automatic bids to the Bowl Championship Series in the Top 25.
Wisconsin was No. 17 followed by Oklahoma.
Texas A&M was No. 21 and the Top 25 was rounded out by two Pac-10 teams, No. 24 Oregon State and No. 25 Washington State.
Virginia Tech, which has been out of the rankings the past two weeks, moved back in after a 24-7 victory over Clemson Thursday.
Washington State is ranked for the first time since finishing the 2003 season No. 9.
Falling out of the rankings were Big 12 North rivals Nebraska and Missouri. The Cornhuskers and Tigers play next week in Lincoln, Neb.
 
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BCS has no questions for what happens in coming weeks

October 30, 2006
By Ralph D. Russothe associated press

For those who enjoy BCS chaos, the fun starts now. Southern California's loss to Oregon State was the first and most significant step toward giving the Bowl Championship Series an impossible task of putting together a title game that will satisfy everybody.
The Beavers' 33-31 upset Saturday had fans of highly ranked one-loss teams rejoicing from Gainesville, Fla., to Berkeley, Calif.
Don't get too down, Trojans. While you gave up control of your destiny in the championship race, you're not out of it either.
When the BCS standings came out Sunday Ohio State and Michigan were still on top. It hardly mattered that West Virginia was slightly ahead of Florida third place, with Louisville and Auburn also close behind. The issue is a long way from being settled. In fact, it probably won't ever get settled.
After Saturday, there were six unbeaten teams in Division I-A. Only three of those teams can end the regular season undefeated: The Ohio State-Michigan winner; one of three Big East teams and Boise State if the Broncos can run the Western Athletic Conference.
There's no question about whether an unbeaten Ohio State or Michigan deserves a spot in the title game on Jan. 8. The one that wins out is going to Glendale, Ariz.
That second spot is going to be up for much debate, and there will be more than one right answer.
The best-case scenario for the BCS now - if you want to call it that - is for West Virginia, or Louisville to remain perfect and lay claim to the second spot in the title game. But that's not going to go over well with those who don't think much of the Big East.
The Big East is no longer the Big Least. It's better at the top than the Atlantic Coast Conference. But check out Florida's schedule and try making a case that if the Gators finish 12-1 and are champions of the toughest conference in the nation they don't deserve to play for the national title, even ahead of an unbeaten Big East winner.
OK, so let's put the Gators in there against Ohio State or Michigan -- and then go tell West Virginia coach Rich Rodriguez or Louisville's Bobby Petrino, "Sorry, your perfect record isn't perfect enough."
If that's the best scenario, what's worse?
How about no undefeated Big East teams?
West Virginia and Louisville square off Thursday night. The winner should get a huge boost in the polls and computer ratings that make up the BCS standings. Coming into the season, it seemed inevitable that the winner of that game would take the Big East.
Not anymore. It's very realistic that neither West Virginia nor Louisville - nor Rutgers (stop laughing, the Scarlet Knights are good) -- goes undefeated.
At that point all the one-loss teams get to step up and say, "Hey, what about us."
Texas, California, Notre Dame, Auburn and Tennessee are all still in the mix. USC is damaged but not done. Not with Oregon, Cal and Notre Dame still left on the schedule.
The Ohio State-Michigan LOSER is still in play.
Yes, great fun indeed. Unless you're BCS coordinator and Southeastern Conference commissioner Mike Slive, who'll have to answer all those unanswerable questions.
 
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W. Virginia moves into third in BCS standings PDF | Print | E-mail RALPH D. RUSSO - The Associated Press MORGANTOWN, W.Va. -- West Virginia was a precarious No. 3 in the Bowl Championship Series standings Sunday, leading a tightly packed group of nine teams trailing Ohio State and Michigan.
The Mountaineers replaced Southern California, which had been in third place before losing 33-31 at Oregon State on Saturday. But unlike the Trojans, West Virginia's hold on third isn't strong enough for the Mountaineers to control their destiny in the national title race.
West Virginia's BCS average of .7862 was just slightly ahead of Florida (.7791) and Big East rival Louisville (.7621).
Auburn, Texas, USC, Notre Dame, California and Tennessee all had BCS averages of at least .7000, giving each of those one-loss teams legitimate hopes of reaching the national title game.
West Virginia plays at Louisville on Thursday night. The winner should get a big boost in the next BCS standings, but with the numbers the way they are now, going undefeated might not keep either Big East power from eventually getting passed by one of the one-loss teams.
"We still have to prove the Big East is a force in the national title picture," West Virginia offensive lineman Dan Mozes said Sunday.
Ohio State and Michigan don't have any such worries.
For the second straight week, the Buckeyes and Wolverines held the top two spots in the BCS standings. All they have to do to play for the BCS championship is win out. The catch, of course, is that the Big Ten rivals meet on Nov. 18 in Columbus.
The Buckeyes are No. 1 in all the polls and have a BCS average of .9864 out of a possible 1.000. Michigan is first in the computer rankings and second in polls, with a BCS average of .9697.
The coaches' poll and Harris poll count for two-thirds of a team's BCS average. A compilation of six computer polls accounts for the other third.
The top two teams in the final standings play for the BCS title in Glendale, Ariz., on Jan. 8.
Unbeaten Boise State moved up a spot to 14th in the standings, still two spots behind where the Broncos from the Western Athletic Conference must finish to secure an automatic berth in the five BCS games. The Broncos' BCS average was .4763. Rutgers was in 12th with a .5153 average.
Ninth-place Notre Dame was also still outside where it needs to be to clinch an automatic berth. An eighth-place finish guarantees the Fighting Irish a spot, though staying in the top 12 is enough to make them eligible for selection.
As for the Mountaineers, they should benefit by the fact that the toughest part of their schedule lies ahead, which should help impress poll voters and bolster their lagging computer rating.
After Louisville, West Virginia plays Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, South Florida and Rutgers. All have records above .500.
The Mountaineers are third in each poll, but only 13th in the computer ratings, the worst among the top 11 teams.
Big East powers rise and USC drops in Top 25: Thanks to USC's fall, the pivotal game between West Virginia and Louisville will be the first top-five matchup for the rebuilt Big East.
The third-ranked Mountaineers and fifth-ranked Cardinals each moved up a spot in The Associated Press Top 25 on Sunday. The two unbeatens were off last week and play Thursday night in Louisville.
Southern California's 33-31 upset loss to Oregon State on Saturday opened up a spot in the top five. USC dropped from No. 3 to No. 9 after its first regular-season loss since falling 34-31 in triple overtime to California on Sept. 27, 2003. The last time the Trojans were ranked lower in the media poll was after that loss to Cal, when they were 10th.
No. 1 Ohio State and No. 2 Michigan remained on top of the AP poll.
 
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DOUG'S TOP 25



Monday, October 30, 2006

Here is Plain Dealer reporter Doug Lesmerises' Top 25:
1. Ohio State, 2. Michigan, 3. West Virginia, 4. Louisville, 5. Tennessee, 6. Florida, 7. Arkansas, 8. Auburn, 9. California, 10. Texas, 11. Notre Dame, 12. Southern Cal, 13. Rutgers, 14. Boise State, 15. Boston College, 16. Oklahoma, 17. LSU, 18. Wisconsin, 19. Wake Forest, 20. Georgia Tech, 21. Texas A&M, 22. Virginia Tech, 23. Clemson, 24. BYU, 25. Washington State.
 
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ROUNDUP
W. Virginia up to precarious No. 3 in BCS

THE ASSOCIATED PRESS


West Virginia was a precarious No. 3 in the Bowl Championship Series standings Sunday, leading a tightly packed group of nine teams trailing Ohio State and Michigan.

The Mountaineers replaced Southern California, which had been in third place before losing 33-31 at Oregon State on Saturday. But unlike the Trojans, West Virginia's hold on third isn't strong enough for the Mountaineers to control their destiny in the national title race.

West Virginia's BCS average of .7862 was just slightly ahead of Florida (.7791) and Big East rival Louisville (.7621).

Auburn, Texas, USC, Notre Dame, California and Tennessee all had BCS averages of at least .7000, giving each of those one-loss teams legitimate hopes of reaching the national title game.

West Virginia plays at Louisville on Thursday night. The winner should get a big boost in the next BCS standings, but with the numbers the way they are now, going undefeated might not keep either Big East power from eventually getting passed by one of the one-loss teams.

Ohio State and Michigan don't have any such worries. For the second straight week, the Buckeyes and Wolverines held the top two spots in the BCS. All they have to do to play for the BCS championship is win out. The catch, of course, is that the Big Ten rivals meet on Nov. 18 in Columbus.

The Buckeyes are No. 1 in all the polls and have a BCS average of .9864 out of a possible 1.000. Michigan is first in the computer rankings and second in polls, with a BCS average of .9697.

The coaches' poll and Harris poll count for two-thirds of a team's BCS average. A compilation of six computer polls accounts for the other third.

The top two teams in the final standings play for the BCS title in Glendale, Ariz., Jan. 8.

Ninth-place Notre Dame was also still outside where it needs to be to clinch an automatic berth. An eighth-place finish guarantees the Fighting Irish a spot, though staying in the top 12 is enough to make them eligible for selection.
 
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Snub computers and win

By Wendell Barnhouse

Star-Telegram Staff Writer

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STAR-TELEGRAM/RON JENKINS
Quarterback Colt McCoy and Texas, celebrating their victory over Texas Tech, can't seem to win for winning when it comes to the BCS polls.

Consecutive come-from-behind conference victories on the road, eight victories, the only loss to the nation's top-ranked team... thus far, none of that computes for Texas.
Thanks to Southern Cal's upset loss at Oregon State, the Longhorns moved from fifth to fourth in both human polls. But in this week's Bowl Championship Series standings, UT continued to roll a seven.
Texas was seventh in the BCS standings for the second consecutive week. Louisville jumped the defending national champions, moving from No. 8 to No. 5.
Why? In the computer rankings, Texas averages No. 12. Only West Virginia, which moved up to No. 3 in the BCS standings, has a worse computer average among BCS top 10 teams. The Mountaineers are 13th in the hard drives.
Texas suffers in the computer rankings because of three week nonconference opponents -- North Texas, Rice and I-AA Sam Houston State.
Also, the Longhorns' computer numbers were hurt by Nebraska's loss at Oklahoma State. If Texas plays in the Big 12 title game, it's opponent will have at least two losses.
But it's not all bad news for Texas. At least two of the teams ahead of Texas are guaranteed losses. Louisville and West Virginia face each other Thursday. No. 1 Ohio State and No. 2 Michigan play on Nov. 18.
The one team that Texas might not be able to catch is No. 6 Auburn. The Tigers will be favored in their three remaining games.
Independent BCS analyst Jerry Palm believes that a one-loss SEC team would wind up ranked ahead of a one-loss Texas team in the final BCS standings.
"Texas still has a lot of room to move up in the computers and may end up the highest rated one-loss team overall," Palm said. "Right now though, I think Florida will hold them off long term if both teams win out."
Following its first regular-season loss since September 2003, USC dropped from No. 3 to No. 8. The Trojans rank No. 6 in the computers.
While USC needs a lot of help in order to play for its third national title in the past four seasons, Saturday's loss did not eliminate the Trojans from contention.
Florida is No. 4 in the BCS standings and is in control of the SEC East race and would benefit from a win over Arkansas or Auburn in the championship game.
With five weeks remaining, two compelling scenarios remain in play:
If Florida wins the SEC championship and finishes with one loss and if West Virginia goes undefeated, the Gators could finish No. 2 in the BCS standings behind the winner of the Michigan-Ohio State game.
Ohio State is No. 1 in the human polls, Michigan is No. 1 in the computers. If the game in Columbus is a narrow victory for either team, it's possible that both teams could wind up first and second in the final BCS standings, setting up an unprecedented rematch in the national championship game.
Boise State, which plays host to Fresno State on Wednesday night, continues to make a strong bid for a BCS berth. The Broncos, who beat Oregon State in September, benefited from the Beavers' victory over USC.
Also, it appears the ACC champion will be ranked below Boise State (if it finishes 12-0) in the final BCS standings.
If that's the case, the Broncos only need to finish No. 16 or higher (and ahead of the lowest-ranked BCS conference champ) to automatically land a BCS bowl.
Two pieces of advice for Texas: Be patient and keep winning. As USC's loss to an unranked team proved, the unexpected can alter the pecking order at any time.
 
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Title race scrambled, but Auburn's in it



Monday, October 30, 2006 By PHILLIP MARSHALL

Times Sports Staff [email protected]
Two teams ranked ahead of Tigers assured of losing
AUBURN - When then-No. 2 Southern California lost 33-31 to unranked Oregon State on Saturday, it opened the way for a November to remember in college football. And Auburn will be part of it.
In the wake of a 23-17 victory at Ole Miss, Auburn (8-1, 5-1 SEC) moved up a spot to No. 6 in the Associated Press, coaches' and Harris polls.
They dropped from No. 5 to No. 6 in the all-important Bowl Championship Series standings going into Saturday's game against Arkansas State (5-3) at Jordan-Hare Stadium.
The weekend of change didn't go unnoticed at Auburn, but it was viewed warily. The Tigers were jostling with Southern California for the No. 2 spot before they were stunned 27-10 at home by Arkansas on Oct. 7.
"You can't worry about what is going to happen with other teams," junior quarterback Brandon Cox said. "You just have to take care of business yourself and worry about that at the end of the season. The only way we are going to get anywhere is if we win games.
"We have to win out, and it starts this week with Arkansas State. We have to keep pushing and have a good game each week."
In the BCS standings, Auburn trails No. 1 Ohio State (9-0), No. 2 Michigan (9-0), No. 3 West Virginia (7-0), Nov. 4 Florida (7-1) and No. 5 Louisville (7-0).
At least two teams ranked higher than Auburn will lose, because No. 3 West Virginia plays at No. 5 Louisville on Thursday night and No. 1 Ohio State plays No. 2 Michigan on Nov. 18.
Throw in a couple of more upsets and some sympathetic poll voters, and Auburn could have a clear shot to the BCS Championship Game in Glenwood, Ariz., on Jan. 8. Or maybe not.
First, of course, the Tigers must negotiate the treacherous final three weeks of the season. They get a final tuneup against Arkansas State before playing Georgia at Jordan-Hare Stadium on Nov. 11 and going to Bryant-Denny Stadium to play Alabama in the Iron Bowl on Nov. 18. They need help - two Arkansas losses - to have a shot at the Southeastern Conference Championship Game.
Four SEC teams - Auburn, Florida, Tennessee and Arkansas - have one loss apiece. Already the debate is heating up over whether one of those teams would deserve to play in the BCS Championship Game ahead of a potentially unbeaten Louisville or West Virginia from the Big East.
Auburn coach Tommy Tuberville said Sunday that the moving and shaking aren't over yet.
"There are going to be some other folks lose," Tuberville said. "It will all shake out in the end. We just have to keep trying to improve and see if we can win a few more games. It's going to be interesting with the teams up there right now."
Wide receiver Courtney Taylor, in the final games of his Auburn career, said he's most happy that he and his teammates have fought back from that discouraging loss to Arkansas to win three straight, including a 27-17 victory over Florida, and put themselves in the championship picture.
"We want to get to Atlanta," Taylor said. "We want to play for the SEC championship. And, of course, we want to play in the big show."
 
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BEAVERS' WIN MUDDIES BCS TITLE POOL


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October 30, 2006 -- OREGON STATE coach Mike Riley had just enough time to shake USC coach Pete Carroll's hand before the current of delirious Beavers fans pushed them apart.
Oregon State had just pulled the upset that would send tremors through the college football landscape, a 33-31 stunner to end the Trojans' 38-game regular-season win streak and 27-game Pac-10 win streak were over and race for which teams will play in the BCS title game was thrown wide open.
With USC now 6-1, there are four undefeated teams with a chance to get to the title game and they should settle the issue on the field. West Virginia (7-0), ranked third in the BCS poll, plays at No. 5 Louisville (7-0) on Thursday and No. 2 Michigan (9-0) plays at No. 1 Ohio State (9-0) on Nov. 18. Rutgers (7-0 before last night's game with Connecticut) and Boise State (8-0) were the other unbeatens.
The Beavers have less lofty aspirations.
"Our goal is to shoot for a bowl game every year and to try to put together that special season when we compete for the Rose Bowl," said Riley. "When the baseball team won the national championship, it sent a message what could be accomplished here."
 
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