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2006 BCS, polls, Bowl Predictions and computer ratings

I've been thinking this for a couple of weeks; and I guess this is the place and time to say it.

The media do not, I repeat, do not have an anti-OSU bias.

Don't worry about what the media think about OSU. For the most part, they don't.

They don't care if we're good. They don't care if we're bad. They only care about us if they can make a story out of us.

7 wins by 7 points or less: Luckeyes
Lots of off-field issues followed by MoC: wall-to-wall coverage
Hot QB-Hot wr-Hot Coach: Deification

The media do not need OSU, they need stories. If we can be the bumbling, lucky kid that wins when he shouldn't; they'll play it up. If we can be painted as the villain; they'll get out the Wagner and spray away. And, here's the scary part, if we can be the BIG team; then they'll sculpt The Collosus of hype in our honor.

We've been the story for negative reasons in the past. Fine, we're huge and that's what happens when you're huge.

This year, we get the only treatment that's worse (if you swallow it). We are the team the media needs most of all. Every sport needs Goliath, and this year it's us.

Sports are special, in part because they are a microcosm of life. Dream, Struggle, Victory. The bigger the dream, the harder the struggle, the sweeter the victory. That's why having a Goliath to write about adds drama; not only for Goliath's fans, but for David's. That's why they NEED Goliath.

Like it or not; that's our role this year. The media haven't changed their minds about us; we've never occupied their minds when they're away from their keyboards. We are just playing a different role this year.

This is scary to me because, as is always the case, Goliath is not nearly as much bigger than everyone else as the media makes "him" out to be. There are several teams that would be favored against us this year if we played at their house.

What Goliath needs most (in order to overcome that label) is a coach like Tressel and a quarterback like Smith.

See you in Glendale.
 
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Does DBB hold a record for most GPA's? Cause I smell another one.

If there is one team most suited to handle the hype and resist swallowing the poison that is the media, it is the 2006 Ohio State Buckeyes. From top to bottom, I've never seen players who, in light of all the media attention, remain so humble and grounded. It starts with Tressel, whose influence on Smith, Ginn, and the rest of the team leaders is obvious (just listen to Smith's post game interview after the Texas game...I swore he was wearing a sweatervest under those pads). All of our "franchise" players give nothing for the competition to talk about, whose fans are then forced to dig up lies or hope that the weather is bad for the game, giving them some kind of mythical advantage.

Anyway...these guys will win. And they'll do it with class.
 
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matt_hayes-t.gif

College Football Expert Matt HayesProfile | SportingBlog | Archive | E-mail Hayes
Ohio State takes the No. 1 spot at the quarter turn
Print this | E-mail this | Comments on this article: 66
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Posted: September 21, 2006




We were so giddy and giggly at the mere thought of it all. No clear leader, no one team to chase -- pure pandemonium.

And Ohio State had to go and ruin it.

It took the Buckeyes all of three weeks to become the undisputed lead dog in a national title race that had looked deliciously crowded and convoluted. (As for our preseason pick, Notre Dame? Pfffffffft.) We're a quarter of the way into the season, and there's one thing even more unexpected than a male voice on The View: No one is beating Ohio State. At least not in the regular season.
"They have very few flaws," says Texas safety Michael Griffin.
Damn Buckeyes. Make that damn Big Ten. As September winds down and October brings key conference games, there is no more disappointing league. Forget about Michigan or anyone else in the Big Ten sideswiping this train. Not only is Ohio State clearly the elite of the league, the Buckeyes have one other key component to a championship run: a coach who knows how to win a big game.
This is a players game. But when the talent gap is minimal, when there is no real difference in speed and athleticism, you better have a guy in a headset who knows what he's doing.
One of the most overlooked factors in the game today: When all things are equal -- and sometimes when they're not -- no one is a better big-game coach than Jim Tressel.
Pete Carroll looks like a genius with all that talent at Southern California. Mack Brown validated his elite status riding Superman Vince Young. Tressel? He won a national title with Craig Freakin' Krenzel.
The guy can flat-out coach in big games -- in games that matter. In five-plus seasons in Columbus, he's 3-0 in BCS bowl games and 4-1 against bitter rival Michigan. One of those BCS wins (Miami, 2002) was against the most talented college football team in the past two decades.
And now Tressel has superstar quarterback/Heisman Trophy front-runner Troy Smith. He has wideout Ted Ginn, the game's most exciting player. He has Gonzo and Beanie and Antonio Pittman and a "revamped" defense that 100-some other Division I teams would trade theirs for.
He also has -- after winning yet another big game two weeks ago at Texas -- an incredibly easy road to the national title game. The Big Ten schedule includes road tests at Iowa (did you watch the Iowa-Syracuse game?) and, and . . . that's it. The Buckeyes get Penn State in Columbus on Saturday, don't play occasional thorn Wisconsin and finish up at home against Michigan.
Don't even start, Blue Boy. For the Wolverines to win The Game, Lloyd Carr would have to outcoach Tressel. And that ain't happening.
"He's not a loud, look-at-me kind of coach," says Cincinnati coach Mark Dantonio, the Buckeyes' most recent victim, of Tressel. "What he has done there and what he can do kind of gets lost in that." Until, that is, he ruins our party.

http://www.sportingnews.com/yourturn/viewtopic.php?t=129972
 
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Mel Kiper Jr. made a great point on Mike-and-Mike-in-the-Morning earlier today.

He suggested that the polls (ap, usa today, et. al.) not come out until Thursday each week. This would give the pollsters sufficient time to adequately consider the results and implications of every game and the performances of every team.

Makes sense to me.
 
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The Top 10 - How did they do yesterday?

Just some thoughts on how the Top 10 performances on 9/23 may impact the polls.
First our Buckeyes vs Penn State
Plus - The Buckeyes beat the spread.
Obvious Plus - The Buckeyes go to 4 - 0
Neither of the above will net the Buckeyes more first place votes (not that there were many of those unaccounted for last week).

Simplistic Negative - It took a long time for the Buckeyes to get on track.
Simplistic Negative - They did not bury a lower ranked opponent.
These might cost us IMO at worst two first place votes distributed, most likely, to Auburn and USC respectively (unless ND gets one for sheer damned stupidity on John L. Smith's part).

How did the other contenders fare yesterday though? The Buckeyes were far from alone in having difficulties, or failing to bring their "A" game.

1 - Ohio State - pulled away late against #24 Penn State, beat the spread, maintained their unbeaten streak in bad weather conditions.
2t - USC - Held only a 3-0 against Arizona at half-time, lent on their defense and ground attack to help pull away to a final 20-3 win over unranked opposition. The spread had USC favored by 19.5 points, the Trojans were within a field goal of matching expectations).
2t - Auburn - Against Buffalo (D-1AA till 1999) they failed to beat the spread which had them favored by 6 touchdowns. Tuberville opined that he had no interest in running up the score against lowly Buffalo, I will give him the benefit of the doubt.
4 - West Virginia - The rushing machine that was Mountaineer football was kept strictly in 2nd gear against (on paper) an over-matched East Carolina team. They netted just 152 yards rushing against a Pirates run-D that was ranked the worst in Conference USA (109th in the nation, even after yesterday's performance). Favored by 3 tocuhes they came awy with a margin of 17 points.
5 - Florida - Favored by three touches and a field goal the Gators finally got on track against the Southern Wildcats in the sevcond half. Favored by 3 touches and a field goal they separated themselves from Kentucky by 19 points.
6 - Michigan - Given all they could handle by a gutsy Wisconsin team in the first half Michigan lent on their defense and took advantage of questionable coaching that frequently placed the Badgers in poor field position. At one point the home team was 0-8 on 3rd downs. The deeper bench in Ann Arbor won out in this one. Favored by 14.5 points, they just miss out on meeting the spread.
7 - Texas - Took care of business against a feisty Iowa State squad. Favored by 21.5 points, margin of victory was 23 points.
8 - Louisville - Favored by 2 touches Da'Ville got that and a little more in their win over Kansas State. Still this was not a studly performance. They had to overcome 3 turnovers and the normally fluid Cardinal offense was anything but.
9 - Georgia - That squeaking noise you hear is Georgia getting by previously hapless Colorado in the waning seconds - thus avoiding a huge upset. Expect to see juggling in the polls around the 10 through 12 spots.
10t - LSU - Bounced back from their 7-3 loss to Auburn by burying seriously over-matched Tulane 49-7.
10t - Va Tech - 4th quarter belonged to the Hokies with 17 unanswered points, it was then that the depth of the home bench finally wore down the feisty Bearcats. Through the 3rd quarter the visitors were giving Tech all they could handle. Tech was two scores (a touch and a field goal) from meeting the spread.

All in all, I don't see any reason for reasonable voters to do anything to shift around the players in the top 8 spots in a dramatic fashion. With the exceptions of Texas and LSU all the Top 10 teams had question marks in their performances yesterday. The biggest downgrades possible? Georgia, without a doubt. Not only was their win late in coming, but they now have a QB controversy. West Virginia's inability to run the ball against a very poor run D is something of an eye opener. This may cause them to drop a rank or two.
 
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Latest Coaches Poll

Rank Team (first-place votes) Record Points Last week's rank
1 Ohio State 4 - 0 1,570 1
(59)
2 Southern California 3 - 0 1,489 2
(2)
3 Auburn 4 - 0 1,441 3
(2)
4 West Virginia 4 - 0 1,357 4
5 Florida 4 - 0 1,294 5
6 Michigan 4 - 0 1,239 6
7 Texas 3 - 1 1,155 8
8 Louisville 4 - 0 1,105 9
9 Georgia 4 - 0 1,079 7
10t. LSU 3 - 1 963 11
10t. Virginia Tech 4 - 0 963 10
12 Oregon 3 - 0 854 12

13 Iowa 4 - 0 802 14
14 Notre Dame 3 - 1 758 13
15 TCU 3 - 0 647 15

16 Oklahoma 3 - 1 615 16
17 Florida State 3 - 1 509 17

18 Tennessee 3 - 1 504 19
19 Clemson 3 - 1 477 23
20 California 3 - 1 452 20
21 Nebraska 3 - 1 289 24

22 Boise State 4 - 0 257 25
23 Rutgers 4 - 0 124 NR
24 Texas Tech 3 - 1 81 NR

25 Boston College 3 - 1 78 21


Notable changes are all at the bottom of the order.
Rutgers is ranked (first time). Texas Tech re-enters poll.
Penn State is bounced from top 25.
ND drops two spots, despite their win at MSU.
 
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sandgk;616871; said:
ND drops two spots, despite their win at MSU.
and well they should. they've given up 84 points their last two games... i have to add that i just KNEW Sparty was going to lose when there was still 8+ minutes to go. they got themselves in a 2nd and 27 after back to back holding calls; then Stanton took a 15 yard sack. they went from being pretty close to FG position to 3rd and 42, then shanked the punt on 4th and 30... NO team in my life has ever been more schizophrenic than Sparty, and that series spelled their doom.
 
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The AP Poll

RANK....|...TEAM....|...RECORD....|...PTS....|...LAST
1....|...Ohio St. (59)....|...4-0....|...1617....|...1
2....|...Auburn (2)....|...4-0....|...1513....|...2
3....|...Southern Cal (2)....|...3-0....|...1491....|...3
4....|...West Virginia (2)....|...4-0....|...1404....|...4
5....|...Florida ....|...4-0....|...1363....|...5
6....|...Michigan ....|...4-0....|...1318....|...6
7....|...Texas ....|...3-1....|...1196....|...7
8....|...Louisville ....|...4-0....|...1166....|...8
9....|...LSU ....|...3-1....|...1114....|...10
10....|...Georgia ....|...4-0....|...972....|...9
11....|...Virginia Tech ....|...4-0....|...945....|...11
12....|...Notre Dame ....|...3-1....|...879....|...12
13....|...Iowa ....|...4-0....|...864....|...14
14....|...Oregon ....|...3-0....|...805....|...13
15....|...Tennessee ....|...3-1....|...658....|...15
16....|...Oklahoma ....|...3-1....|...613....|...17
17....|...TCU ....|...3-0....|...563....|...16
18....|...Clemson ....|...3-1....|...529....|...19
19....|...Florida St. ....|...3-1....|...510....|...18
20....|...California ....|...3-1....|...508....|...21
21....|...Nebraska ....|...3-1....|...327....|...23
22....|...Boise St. ....|...4-0....|...226....|...25
23....|...Rutgers ....|...4-0....|...117....|...NR
24....|...Georgia Tech ....|...3-1....|...77....|...NR
25....|...Missouri ....|...4-0....|...70....|...NR

Others receiving votes: Boston College 42, Miami 37, Arizona St. 34, Purdue 34, Michigan St. 20, Texas A&M 20, Penn St. 19, Texas Tech 17, Arkansas 13, Washington 13, Wake Forest 12, Wisconsin 6, Houston 5, UCLA 5, Alabama 3. http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/external/onlinenews.ap.org/collegefootball_ran kings/voters.php?SITE

The Domers hold on to #12 in the AP, other than that most of the top 10 are pretty even in both AP and Coaches voting.
 
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Link


OSU retains No. 1 ranking
By RALPH D. RUSSO
AP Sports Writer

No joke. Rutgers is ranked.
The Scarlet Knights, long a college football laughingstock, moved Sunday into The Associated Press Top 25 for the first time in 30 years.
No. 23 Rutgers (4-0), led by tailback Ray Rice, the fourth-leading rusher in the nation, is off to its best start since 1980 after beating Howard 56-7 on Saturday.

"I'm not going to downplay it. It is significant considering where we started," Rutgers coach Greg Schiano said. "It shows we're making progress in the right direction."

The Scarlet Knights were one of three new teams at the bottom of the new media poll, which was mostly unchanged at the top.

Ohio State is still No. 1 with 59 of a possible 65 first-place votes. No. 2 Auburn, No. 3 Southern California and No. 4 West Virginia each received two first-place votes.

Auburn had 1,513 points and USC had 1,491. The Tigers lead over the Trojans grew nine points from last week.

No. 5 is Florida, followed by Michigan, Texas, Louisville, LSU and Georgia. The only change in the Top 10 was No. 9 LSU flip-flopping with No. 10 Georgia.

Last year, in Schiano's fifth season at the state university of New Jersey, Rutgers had its first winning year since 1992. The Knights went 7-5 and played in the Insight Bowl, their first bowl game since 1978.

The Scarlet Knights were 3-20 in Schiano's first two years. They also had a 25-game conference losing streak from 1999-2003.
 
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Best Buckeye;617465; said:
Rutgers has a football team?:biggrin:

have they played anyone that would prescribe a top 25 spot?
:osu:
Hmm ... I'm going to guess 'no' on that one.

North Carolina, Illinois, Ohio, and Howard.

Combined record of opponents against 1A teams: 1-9.
Combined record of opponents against 1AA teams: 3-4.
 
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