2006 BCS, polls, Bowl Predictions and computer ratings

[osugrad21]

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Ohio State is in good shape ? for now

It?s still early, but Buckeyes could meet Southern California for national title if both teams win out
By Brian Davis - The Dallas Morning News
Tuesday, September 26, 2006
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Granted, it?s still September. But the Bowl Championship Series picture now has more shape and definition since the Harris Interactive pollsters weighed in with their first top-25 rankings of the season.
There were really no big surprises Sunday. Ohio State debuted at No. 1, and Southern California was No. 2. Auburn, West Virginia and Michigan rounded out the top five.
Fans might be asking themselves why this is important. After all, there?s a ton of football remaining, right?
The Buckeyes and Trojans are 1-2 in both the Harris and USA Today coaches polls, which make up two-thirds of the BCS formula. Now that they?re entrenched in the top two spots, all they have to do is keep on winning, and they?ll be headed to Glendale, Ariz., for the BCS national championship game.
Buckeye and Trojans fans should pause before harassing their travel agent, though. Fans of other top-10 teams shouldn?t give up hope, either.
If the Texas game didn?t raise doubts about Ohio State?s viability at No. 1, Saturday?s sluggish start against Penn State should have.
The Buckeyes? run defense gave up another 142 yards. Quarterback Troy Smith seemed rather unimpressive in completing 12 of 22 passes for 115 yards, and Ohio State got shut out in the first half ? at home, no less.
Smith?s 37-yard touchdown pass in the third quarter gave OSU some breathing room. But the 28-6 final score doesn?t look so good when you learn the Buckeyes had two interceptions returned for touchdowns in garbage time.
Iowa can rain on, if not downright ruin, OSU?s championship hopes this weekend. The 13th-ranked Hawkeyes haven?t exactly been competitive in this series lately. Ohio State has won nine of the last 10.
Let?s say OSU does get past Iowa, though. The Buckeyes probably would be favored in every game leading up to the Nov. 18 showdown against Michigan at the Horseshoe.
Even if Jim Tressel?s club does build up an 11-0 record to that point, it?s not guaranteed the voters will stick with the Buckeyes. Last year, USC had 110 out of 113 first-place votes in the initial Harris poll on Sept. 25. By Nov. 20, USC had just 88 first-place votes. Texas had 25.
Speaking of the Trojans, the national perception seems to be they?re down this year without Matt Leinart and Reggie Bush. Maybe we?ve all got USC fatigue. Fight On? By the end of last year, it was more like, Move On.
Still, new quarterback John David Booty and receiver Dwayne Jarrett are taking care of business. It appears as if USC will be on cruise control until a Nov. 25 date with Notre Dame. That is, if Brent Musberger doesn?t give away any more hand signals.
Whoever wins the Texas-Oklahoma game still has a good chance to get back in the top five. Florida, Auburn, LSU and Georgia will take turns beating on each other in October. West Virginia and Louisville collide Nov. 2. And pollsters still love a one-loss Notre Dame.
Ohio State and USC sure look good in the BCS race as of today. Just remember one thing. It?s still September.

 

[bkochmc]

Hmm ... I'm going to guess 'no' on that one.

North Carolina, Illinois, Ohio, and Howard.

Combined record of opponents against 1A teams: 1-9.
Combined record of opponents against 1AA teams: 3-4.

But they beat an ACC and a Big10 team so that has to count for something... right? [/sarcasm]

Seriously, congrats to Rutgers for being ranked for the first time in 30 years regardless of who they have played but I'll be impressed if they are still ranked at the end of the year.

 

[Buckeyeskickbuttocks]

But the 28-6 final score doesn?t look so good when you learn the Buckeyes had two interceptions returned for touchdowns in garbage time.

Can someone explain to me how it's "garbage time" when the score is 14 - 6 with just under 3:00 to go and the trailing team has the football?

If the Texas game didn't raise doubts about Ohio State's viability at No. 1...

Ummm... didn't the Texas win solidify OSU's #1 ranking???


Seems like the boys in Dallas don't much like the Buckeyes.

 

[osugrad21]

Link

ESPN.com's Power 16 Week 5

1Ohio State (16)4-0256The Buckeyes' last visit to Kinnick Stadium ended in a 33-7 loss to the Hawkeyes.

2Auburn4-0232The Tigers could afford to be a little flat against Buffalo. That won't work in Columbia, S.C., on Thursday night (ESPN, 7:30 ET).

3USC3-0225Can the Trojans extend their 55-game streak of scoring at least 20 points if WR Dwayne Jarrett is sidelined?

4Michigan4-0195Back-to-back wins over ND and Wisconsin are in the bag. Rival Michigan State's in two weeks. Could Saturday's trip to Minnesota be a trap game?

5West Virginia4-0186Steve Slaton didn't get 200 yards on the Pirates. In fact, he didn't even get 100. But the Mountaineers won.

6Florida4-0184The Gators are 4-0, and Chris Leak set a school record for career completions. Why exactly are they booing the QB in "The Swamp?"

7Texas3-1151With the State Fair of Texas, Fletcher's corn dogs and OU only two weeks away, concentrating on Sam Houston State won't be easy -- or necessary.

8Louisville4-0142No Bush. No Brohm. Not much of a problem for the Cardinals -- at least so far.

8LSU3-1142The Tigers are No. 1 in scoring defense. Mississippi State ranks 111th in scoring offense. Sounds as if Death Valley will be rocking.

10Oregon3-092The Ducks moved up a spot without playing this past week. Sooners would say Oregon moved to 3-0 without winning.

11Georgia4-079Matt Stafford was supposed to be the chosen one at QB, but Joe Cox saved the Dawgs against the Buffs.

12Virginia Tech4-068The Hokies will miss suspended DE Chris Ellis and WR Josh Morgan against the Yellow Jackets.

13Iowa4-055No. 1 Ohio State. Rare Kinnick Stadium night game. Chris, Kirk and Lee. Sounds as though Iowa City is the place to be Saturday.

14Notre Dame3-148It's still hard to believe the Irish made that 17-point comeback in Spartan Stadium.

15Oklahoma3-147Think Bob Stoops and Co. will use the off week to plan something special for the Horns?

16TCU3-037Frogs can claim the Utah championship with wins over the Cougars this Thursday and the Utes next Thursday.

 

[Best Buckeye]

Can someone explain to me how it's "garbage time" when the score is 14 - 6 with just under 3:00 to go and the trailing team has the football?

Ummm... didn't the Texas win solidify OSU's #1 ranking???
Seems like the boys in Dallas don't much like the Buckeyes.

i wonder if this bozo realizes that the more he tries to lower the Bucks image , the lower he makes Texas's.

 

[BuckeyeNation27]

Oct 1 Coaches

 

[sandgk]

Putting Va Tech over Ga Tech seems a little kind to the Hokies after Ga Tech humbled them in Blacksburg.

 

[Dryden]

Putting Va Tech over Ga Tech seems a little kind to the Hokies after Ga Tech humbled them in Blacksburg.

No kidding. That gets a great big WTF from me. Just another example of pollsters "guessing" were someone should be ranked to start the season, then moving them up or down purely on Ws and Ls rather than ranking them based on their on field performance.

Va Tech beat Northeastern, North Carolina, Duke and Cincinnati. That's really impressive if its mens basketball. Football? Not so much. And VT seriously struggled with Cinci for the first three quarters.

VT, with their defense and special teams, will usually be a Top-25 team, but based on this season they currently warrant a spot only in the "rounding out the Top-25" category, if not even a "others receiving votes" honorable mention.

Their next two games are at BC then Clemson at home, though, so I think it'll work itself out by mid-October.

 

[HabaneroBuck]

Just give it a week to figure things out...they just inched Clemson ahead of Florida State this week. One week too late, true, but they'll catch on!

 

[lvbuckeye]

well, the Buckeyes have picked up both of USC's #1 votes, both of WVU's #1 votes, and one of AUburn's #1 votes in the last two weeks... only one remaining #1 vote out there for a consensus, though i hardly think that Tommy Tuberville will take his #1 vote away from his Tigers...

 

[ashlandbuck]

"If the Texas game didn't raise doubts about OSU's viability at #1"

That is the comment I can't get over. Did OSU look bad in that game?
Wow. How do these guys get jobs writing?

 

[Jaxbuck]

My .02:

-Georgia is the most overrated team left in the top 10(Big Least teams excepted) but UT will put that to bed this week.

-Oregon over OU?

-VT over GT?

The polls are the polls. Archaic, innefficient often flat out wrong but part of a system that produces so much money no one will ever seriously screw with it.

 

[osugrad21]

Link

Buckeyes clearly the best of Top 10 teams

By TONY BARNHART
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Published on: 10/02/06 The first BCS Standings won't be released until Oct. 15, but if we were handicapping the national championship race, here's how they would line up.
1. Ohio State (5-0)
The Buckeyes are a solid, unmovable No. 1 unless they lose. And they aren't going to lose. In September, the Buckeyes marched into two very tough environments (Texas and Iowa) and didn't just win ? they dominated. They have the Heisman frontrunner in quarterback Troy Smith and a pair of big time receivers (Ted Ginn Jr., and Anthony Gonzalez) and an underrated running back (Antonio Pittman). The defense is better than expected after losing nine starters. The goal is to avoid injuries before Michigan comes to Columbus on Nov. 18.
2 (tie). Auburn (5-0)
We'll find out in the next two weeks if the Tigers deserve to be in this spot. If they beat Arkansas and Florida in the next two Saturdays (both games at home), Auburn will be 7-0 including a win over LSU. The offense remains the most innovative in the country under Al Borges and the defense is quick and talented. If Auburn wins its next two games, the Tigers most likely will be 10-0 when they finish the regular season with Georgia and Alabama.
2 (tie). Florida (5-0)
This is the best Florida defense since the 1996 national championship season. The Gators proved it again Saturday with three interceptions in a 28-13 win over Alabama. Florida also is more explosive on offense in Year 2 of Urban Meyer because of some talented freshmen such as quarterback Tim Tebow and receiver Percy Harvin. If Florida beats LSU at home this week and Auburn on the road next week, they have to be No. 2 in the BCS standings. If they go 13-0 against that schedule and don't get in the BCS championship, then it will be time to blow the whole thing up.
4. Michigan (5-0)
Don't look now but the Wolverines have put together a pretty good football team after suffering through a 7-5 season a year ago. The biggest key is that running back Mike Hart is healthy, and as long as he stays that way, Michigan's Chad Henne will be a very good quarterback. Head coach Lloyd Carr also made a smart move by elevating secondary coach Ron English to defensive coordinator. Under English, the Wolverine defense has developed a little bit of a nasty streak. The only potential stumbling block between now and the trip to Ohio State is at Penn State on Oct. 14.
5. West Virginia (4-0)
This is a talented team that plays a weak schedule. Its best hope is that it is the only undefeated team at the end of the regular season. And that could happen if the Mountaineers find a way to win at Louisville on Nov. 2. Quarterback Pat White and running back Steve Slaton are as fast as any tandem in the country. But the cold, hard truth for West Virginia is this: With that schedule it will not edge out an undefeated team from the SEC or Pac-10 for a spot in the championship game.
6. Southern Cal (4-0)
The coaches' poll and the Harris poll love USC and has it at No. 2. I just don't see it. The Trojans are a good team and hung tough to win at Washington State 28-22 Saturday. But this is not the Southern Cal team of the past three seasons. When wide receiver Dwayne Jarrett is in the lineup, the Trojans can move the ball effectively. But John David Booty is no Matt Leinart and the running back ? whatever his name is ? is no Reggie Bush. Having said that, this team is good enough to go undefeated. The last four games with Oregon, California, Notre Dame and UCLA will define the season.
7. Texas (4-1)
If we end the season with only one or no undefeated teams, a 12-1 Texas could make a pretty good case for being in the BCS championship game. The Longhorns' only loss was to No. 1 Ohio State in a game where they were competitive until late. Texas has some young talent ? like quarterback Colt McCoy ? that is going to be very good by the end of the year. But first the Longhorns have to beat Oklahoma in Dallas this Saturday. Do that and they should roll to the Big 12 championship game and face a bad team from the Northern Division.
8. LSU (4-1)
LSU scored three points in a loss to Auburn. It has scored 187 points (46.75 average) in its other four games with Louisiana-Lafayette (2-2), Arizona (2-3), Tulane (1-3) and Mississippi State (1-4). The Tigers look great against inferior competition, but can they step up against one of the big boys? We'll find out Saturday when JaMarcus Russell and company go to Florida. Win in the Swamp and LSU could go 11-1. Auburn has to lose twice for LSU to get to the SEC championship game. But even if they don't get to Atlanta, the Tigers at 11-1 would be a lock for a BCS at-large bid.
9. Louisville (4-0)
Everybody's talking about Louisville's game with West Virginia on Nov. 2, and it will be one of the biggest Big East games in the history of the league. But the next week the Cardinals have to go to Rutgers, which is a solid team. Coach Bobby Petrino is holding this team together and waiting for quarterback Brian Brohm to return from an injury. There are a lot of talented athletes on this team.
10. Notre Dame (4-1)
The Irish dodged a bullet against Michigan State two weeks ago and now play three service academies, Stanford, UCLA and North Carolina before going to Southern Cal on Nov. 25. If Notre Dame beats Southern Cal on the road to finish 11-1, and if there are one or no undefeated teams, the voting in the final regular-season polls is going to be quite interesting.

 

[osugrad21]

Link

Downfield Vision

Ohio State, Boise Can't Look Too Far Ahead October 2, 2006

Two teams came out of the weekend with their eyes firmly focused on Bowl Championship Series spots. But January is still a long ways off, so Jim Tressel and Chris Petersen might want to hide the binoculars.

Tressel will have to make sure he doesn't start game-planning now for the Nov. 18 Michigan game. The Buckeyes (5-0) handled a rough September schedule with aplomb, capped by Saturday's 38-17 victory at Iowa. All that stands between them and an all-or-nothing showdown with Michigan: six opponents with a combined record of 14-16.

"How we handle being successful with that 5-0 start is the question," Tressel said. "We're very capable."

Boise State (5-0) also passed what might have been its toughest test, cruising 36-3 at Utah. After TCU lost Thursday, the Broncos became the front-runners to grab an at-large bid in the expanded five-game BCS.

That speculation led to a pre-emptive strike by Petersen. "Don't even ask one question about the BCS," he said after the game.

It'll be a long haul for Boise, which inched up two spots to 20th when the Associated Press poll was released Sunday. A champion from a non-BCS conference needs to finish in the top 12 of the final BCS standings to reach the promised land.

At least the Buckeyes know they have their fate in their own hands. Their hold on No. 1has never been stronger, growing to 62 first-place votes (out of 65) and 1,622 points. The Top 10 remained unchanged from last week, with Auburn (one first-place vote) at No. 2 and Southern Cal third. No. 4 West Virginia had the other two first-place votes. Florida was fifth and Michigan sixth.

TCU dropped from No. 17 all the way out of the poll after losing to BYU. Boston College re-entered the poll at No. 25.

 

[osugrad21]

Link

Ohio State will rule BCS

Published October 2, 2006


The first Bowl Championship Series standings come out Oct. 15, but we'll save you the mystery of who's going to be No.1 when they're unveiled that day.

Heck, we'll save you the mystery of wondering who will be No.1 when the final standings come out Dec. 3.

Duh -- it's going to be Ohio State.

The Buckeyes (5-0) gave themselves a lot of breathing room by hammering host Iowa 38-17 Saturday.

"I don't coach at Ohio State, but from my vantage point this is the best they've played all year," Iowa Coach Kirk Ferentz said.

The Buckeyes' victory completed a September with three tough games (Texas, Penn State and Iowa). The number of remaining tough games? One, the regular-season finale Nov. 18 at home against Michigan.

Take a gander at the other flotsam and jetsam on the schedule: Bowling Green, Michigan State (already in its annual free fall), Indiana, Minnesota, Illinois and Northwestern.

As for the maize-and-blue team waiting at the end of the schedule, Buckeyes Coach Jim Tressel is 4-1 against Michigan.

"One of the great challenges that we talked about a lot was how brutal that September schedule was," Tressel said. "We've played against some tough teams who brought all they could bring at us."

Ohio State's ground game was perhaps the one thing that had been bothering Tressel, but the Buckeyes ran for 214 yards against the Hawkeyes.

"They ran the ball down our throats," Iowa CB Charles Godfrey said.

And, frankly, if Ohio State keeps that running game cranked up, there will be no mystery as to the No.1 team after the national championship game is played Jan. 8. That'll be the Buckeyes, too.