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[2003 Season] pick the winner w/ odds... fun!!

You like saying that don't you gbear. Like running your own little casino, huh Mr Pit Boss? Well you've taken just about enough of my imaginary play money! This week my lucky quarter and I make a BIG comeback ... I hope.:biggrin:

Thanks for the thread (and you work) gbear, good stuff.
 
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easy way to get posts :wink2:

I wouldn't make a good casino or pit boss... I have yet to see any of the juice, guess I need to find a new guy to work the collection department :tongue2:

All in good fun. I'm frankly surprised I was able to stay above .500... I usually stink at these things, but had so much fun last year on BN doing this, I figured I would take the job and run with it... much better turnout than I expected (read more work than expected), but has been alot of fun (as well as the fantacy game that Killer helped create this year)... will def. do it again next year...

Now I need tofigure out a fair method for the scores... a person who made 65 picks vrs. a person who made 20 picks isn't too fair... I don't know if I will require all the bowl games or not cout anybody who has under 1/2 - 2/3 of the most picks, or what... I will def. try to have all the bowl games in this little game though... any ideas on how to judge who wins the prize (or should we let Jenkinswoody do that since he is the one fronting the prize)?

Jenkinswoody ,

Any ideas on how you want to handle this (anybody else can add their ideas as well)...?
 
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Here are the results for week #8... Sorry, there was movement, I changed the line up to reflect some movement...


Name...............This Week..........."Season"........Season % Win

HappygoB:.............3/5.................35/54................64.8%

gbear:...................3/5..................40/64...............62.5%

Luke/Nutty:............3/5.................39/64...............60.9%

LoKyB:...................4/5..................35/64...............54.6%
Hubbard:...............2/5..................33/64...............54.6%

Mili:........................1/5..................32/59...............54.2%

Buckeye68:...........2/5.................15/29...................51.7%

Jenkinswoody:.......3/5.................33/64...............51.5%

DiehardBuck..........1/5..................28/59...............47.5%

Coastalbuck:.........2/5..................31/64...............48.4%
Coxew:..................2/5.................31/64................48.4%
LightningRod:........2/5..................31/64...............48.4%

3yaac:...................4/5..................30/64...............46.8%



Did not play this week:

Cinnci.....................6/9..................6/9...................66%
Slickman:...............3/5.................3/5
KillerN:...................4/10..................33/59...............56%
AndyGeorge:.........5/10..................33/59...............56%
Cleve:...................4/10....................9/20...............45%
KentSB:.................4/10...............9/20
Skin86:..................3/10..................13/29...............45%
C-Dog:...................5/10.................13/30...............43%
Woodyworhiper:....5/10.................17/40...............43%
Phat.......................1/10..................7/19...................37%
RAMdrvr1:..............1/5..................1/5
 
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Yes gbear, my "scientific" formula is working fine. It is much like the BCS however, some "tweaking" might be needed in the future. Some upgrades are already in the planning stages. At a future date my "committee" might be forced to use a "coaches" quarter, a "media" quarter, and a "strength of schedule" quarter. The average of which will become "my" pick of the week for each team. Better picks through the laws of probability!
 
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3 yards,

need more variables... I understand how your picks system will work... I don't under stand the BcS... If you are going to create the "perfect" system, it needs to be a system nobody understands (a least that is what the BcS thinks :tongue2: )...
 
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3Yards, you are clearly not factoring in the wind factor to your pick. That would be something like the SOS. After that you have to factor in the strength of the fliping finger, well rested to working on short notice. That would be the have to be the bonus deduction on the total. After figuring all that it would basically make your method fool-proof.

As an extra, you could factor in the total number of rotations in the air and use that number to divide to total number and be left with a situation in which the lower the number the higher the probablity of a win.

If anyone was able to follow this, please see a head doctor ASAP.
 
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Here are the picks for ALL the bowl games... get your picks in by Monday at midnight (12/17/03)... that is less than a week away... if you don't get picks in by that time, you don't get to pick any of the bowls... If you don't get your bowl picks in, you will not be in the running for the prize...

Please get your picks in ASAP... also no changing picks after picks are made... I hope everybody plays for the bowl games, this should be fun!! There are 25 games, you must pick all games.

date/teams .... team favored, points favored

12/18
Loisville/Miami OH ... Miami 13.5

12/22
Kansas/NC State ... NC State 10.5

12/23
Boise St/TCU ... Boise St 10.5

12/24
New Mexico/ Oregon St ... Oregon St. 3

12/25
Houston/ Hawaii ... Hawii 10.5

12/26
Northwestern/ Bowling Green ... BG 8
Cal/VaTech ... Va Tech 2

12/27
UVA/ Pitt ... UVA 2.5

12/29
Mich. St/Nebraska ... Neb. 3

12/30
Navy/Texas Tech ... TT 13
Fresno St/UCLA ... UCLA 3.5

12/31
Wisconson/Auburn ... Auburn 3
Minnesota/Oregon ... Min 3
Utah/S. Miss ... Utah 1.5
Missouri/Arkansas ... Ark 2

1/1
Iowa/Florida ... Florida 3.5
WVU/Maryland ... Maryland 3
Purdue/Georgia ... Georgia 3
scUM/USC ... USC 6.5
FSU/Miami ... FSU 1.5

1/2
Oklahom St/Ol Miss ... Ol Miss 2
Clemson /Tenn ... Tenn 5.5
KSU/Bucks ... KSU 7

1/3
Tulsa/Ga Tech ... Ga Tech 7.5

1/4
LSU/Oklahoma ... OK 6
 
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Here are my picks:

Miami OH
NC State
TCU
Oregon St
Hawaii
Bowling Green
VaTech
Pitt
Mich St
Texas Tech
Fresno St
Auburn
Minnesota
Utah
Arkansas
Florida
WVU
Purdue
ScUM
Miami
Ol Miss
Tenn
Ohio State
Ga Tech
Oklahoma
 
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