New bowl projections point to Ohio State in the College Football Playoff
Geoff Hammersley via our friends at Land-Grant Holy Land
Visit their fantastic blog and read the full article (and so much more) here


Oklahoma, Georgia and Penn State, those are some of the teams the Buckeyes could be running up against in the latest edition of bowl projections.

With the Ohio State Buckeyes rolling right into their bye week, they get to watch the chaos happen around them as Penn State-Michigan headline this week’s slate of games.

Last week, four upsets happened in the AP Poll Top 10. Those upsets drastically changed the bowl/playoff projections—as Ohio State was considered an outsider in most of the predictions heading into Week 7.

Now, with a fresh batch of predictions laid out, the Buckeyes are firmly in the playoff picture once again. Let’s take a look at where five different outlets (and their writers) have Ohio State headed to in the postseason.


The regular season meeting hasn’t even happened yet, but Jerry Palm of CBS Sports has a Buckeye-Nittany Lion rematch. This scenario means that the Bucks toppled PSU at home on Oct. 28. While that would be very good, that means Penn State will be angry in the grudge match in Pasadena, Calif. I don’t like the idea of facing Saquon Barkley once, but having to face him twice(!!!), I’m not too big on that notion.

As an FYI: In the other semifinal, Palm has Alabama-Clemson in the Sugar Bowl, which would make for an absolutely smashing third leg of the trilogy between those two teams.


Instead of Penn State, Jason Kirk has the Oklahoma Sooners playing in the Rose Bowl against Ohio State.

Like Palm, Kirk has the Buckeyes as the second best team at the end of the season—and he also Bama-Clemson in the other semifinal at the Sugar Bowl.

If this is what we end up getting, I feel like OSU would rout OU by at least three touchdowns. Yea, the Sooners have Baker Mayfield, but ever since Mayfield planted that flag in The ‘Shoe, this Ohio State team has played off-the-charts good. You have got to believe that if the Bucks got another crack at Mayfield and the Sooners, there’s no way they play like they did back in Week 2.

Mayfield woke the sleeping giant in Ohio State. How karmic would it be if OSU got the victory against Oklahoma at the Granddaddy of them All?


At Sports Illustrated, the sentiment was with the majority of their writers: Ohio State is a playoff team at season’s end. Three of the seven writers had the Rose Bowl for OSU, while one (Scooby Axson) had the Sugar Bowl being where the Buckeyes would end up.

Bruce Feldman was the only one to put Ohio State in the National Championship Game. However, Feldman, and the rest of the writers, had Alabama winning the title one way or another.

Note: The reason why there’s an ‘I think’ next to two of the writers’ bowl projections is that Penn State is marked in both of their playoff and New Year’s Six bowl predictions. (So, I figured that they meant Ohio State was their New Year’s Six pick, not Penn State. If an update occurs, the table above will reflect that change.)


Last week, Erick Smith had Georgia playing Ohio State in the Peach Bowl. This week, he has the Bulldogs in the playoff—and the Buckeyes staying put.

While not a rematch, it’s a recent meeting, as just two seasons ago in the Fiesta Bowl was the last time the Fighting Irish and Buckeyes played on the same gridiron.


The more things change, the more they stay the same. That’s what must be happening with the ESPN projections for Ohio State.

After chaos reigned supreme last week, the bowl projections stayed the same for the Buckeyes. Kyle Bonagura has a Peach Bowl for the Scarlet and Gray, while David Hale has an Orange Bowl meeting with The U.

My sentiment stays the same this week on a possible South Florida matchup: It would be bad for the Buckeyes. The Bucks would be huge favorites if that game happened, and anything less than a blowout would bring out the critics.

An Orange Bowl with the Hurricanes wouldn’t be too bad, though; I do like the notion of another meeting with Miami. (Especially if the outcome is Nebraska-esque with the Buckeyes walking out of the Sunshine State with a 56-14 win.)

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Ohio State looks to pull a top defensive prospect out of Texas
Caleb Houser via our friends at Land-Grant Holy Land
Visit their fantastic blog and read the full article (and so much more) here


Marcel Brooks would make a great addition to the Buckeyes' DB/LB recruiting legacy.

Tomorrow Buckeye Nation will feast its eyes on the biggest Big Ten game of the day when rival Michigan heads to Happy Valley in a “white-out” to take on Penn State. With the Ohio State bye week, you can guarantee that Buckeye fans and the players themselves will be giving their full attention to the prime time matchup.

With Ohio State being able to rest up and get ready for their own Penn State matchup next week, the coaching staff was able to do more of what they’re really good at besides coaching: recruit. With game day being over a week away, Urban Meyer and his gang were able to hit the trails again in full force doing their best to lure in their top prospects and improve on their already loaded 2018 class.

Top DB/LB has Bucks in Top list


If there is a common trend in Ohio State football recruiting, it’s the fact that defensive backs love what the Buckeyes are selling. And who wouldn’t? With each and every year being nothing but a recipe for success, and the end result being a selection in the NFL Draft, that has to make an impression on any top prep prospect. If you look at guys like Gareon Conley, Marshon Lattimore, Bradley Roby, Eli Apple, and Malik Hooker, you get the point. Ohio State develops defensive backs just as well if not better than any other program in the country. However, if there’s another position the Buckeyes can develop, it’s linebacker. It’s easy to go in to detail with guys like Raekwon McMillan, Ryan Shazier, and more, but we’ll stop there.

Yesterday, Marcel Brooks, a 4-star safety and linebacker hybrid prospect from Flower Mound, Texas, released his top six schools list, and as usual when a top recruit narrows down his options, the Buckeyes were involved. The 6'3, 200-pound hybrid is currently ranked as the eleventh-best outside linebacker in the country for the 2019 class and also the seventh-best player in the loaded state of Texas. With nearly 20 scholarship offers, it’s clear to see Brooks is deserving of his high 4-star status.


Making the cut for Marcel in his list of six includes TCU, Clemson, Alabama, Oklahoma, Penn State, and Ohio State. Being a Texas product, you can bet Tom Herman and his staff will certainly look to join the mix for his services, but if Ohio State thinks they can swoop into Texas again for one of the state’s best kids, Urban Meyer will certainly pull out all of stops.

Togiai conflicted between the two


Ohio State is beaming with pride at the defensive tackle haul they plan on bringing to campus in the class of 2018. With a 5-star and top prospect at the position already in the fold with Taron Vincent, the Buckeyes and position coach Larry Johnson don’t have any plans but to continue adding size, speed, and strength to bolster their already impressive defensive line. One prep star they would love to add to the mix is the ever-popular Tommy Togiai, a prospect not new to Buckeye fans in the least bit.


Recently, Togiai visited Washington and came away extremely impressed with what the Huskies are building on. After shutting down his recruitment with the exception for two teams, Ohio State and Washington look to be battling head-to-head for this standout’s services when his name is signed on the dotted line.

Coaches hit the road


With the bye week, Ohio State coaches were given the task to hit the road and continue dominating the recruiting trail as they look to secure the rest of their 2018 class. Of the many stops along the way, Ohio State receivers coach Zack Smith headed to St. Louis, Missouri (a place Buckeye fans should thank repeatedly for giving them Ezekiel Elliot). Smith was there to check on Kamryn Babb, a 6'1, 190-pound receiver the Buckeyes are trying hard to bring to Columbus to join L’Christian “Blue” Smith as the receivers in the 2018 class.


Babb, who unfortunately saw his senior season cut far too short thanks to an ACL injury, has still kept in contact with Ohio State and what they have to offer. Of course, LSU still has their sights set on Babb in hopes of bringing him to Death Valley. However, Ohio State has other plans for the nation’s fourth-best receiver prospect and Missouri’s top player in the 2018 class.

Kamryn has plans to visit “officially” for the Penn State game next week and rumors have circulated that Babb could potentially pull the trigger and be on “commit watch,” but we’ll have to see how this one plays out. Fortunately, most believe that the Buckeyes still lead for Babb and are certainly the team to beat for his signature.

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Urban Meyer on Dodd Trophy midseason watch list - 247Sports
via Google News using key phrase "Buckeyes".


Urban Meyer on Dodd Trophy midseason watch list
247Sports
Meyer not only has been successful on the field, the Buckeyes are 6-1, following a Week 2 loss to Oklahoma with five consecutive blowout wins, but also continues his Real Life Wednesday in order to help players prepare themselves for their lives after ...

and more »

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Buckeyes' progress pleases Meyer as Penn State game looms - Ashland Times Gazette
via Google News using key phrase "Buckeyes".


Buckeyes' progress pleases Meyer as Penn State game looms
Ashland Times Gazette
He's piled up passing yards and touchdowns in five straight blowouts since the Buckeyes lost to Oklahoma in Week 2. Despite beating badly out-manned opponents in those contests, coach Urban Meyer said Barrett and the rest of the offense have made ...
Ohio State Buckeyes alternate jerseys much more gray than scarletCincinnati.com
Ohio State recruiting: Big visitor for Penn State game, coaches hit the roadLandof10.com
Has Demetrius Knox locked down the Buckeyes right guard job? Ohio State football analysiscleveland.com
The Columbus Dispatch -247Sports
all 73 news articles »

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Ohio State football podcast: Thad Matta's influence remains with Buckeyes basketball - Landof10.com
via Google News using key phrase "Buckeyes".


Ohio State football podcast: Thad Matta's influence remains with Buckeyes basketball
Landof10.com
The prospects of the Buckeyes basketball team for the upcoming season. Is Michigan State the clear favorite in the Big Ten and is anyone good enough to beat them out for the regular-season title? Is this the year the string of top-4 league finishes ...
Watch: Holtmann at Big Ten basketball media day247Sports
Big Ten basketball predictions 2017-18: Here's how Penn State and an ascending league shake outPennLive.com
Women's basketball: Can Maryland win a fourth straight Big Ten title?NCAA.com
Land-Grant Holy Land -Eleven Warriors
all 220 news articles »

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Kurelic: OSU-USC recruit battles; big visits; big man on campus - 247Sports
via Google News using key phrase "Buckeyes".


Kurelic: OSU-USC recruit battles; big visits; big man on campus
247Sports
1) If you missed it from earlier this afternoon, I posted VIP stories on two absolutely huge Buckeye California targets, linebackers Palaie Gaoteote and Solomon Tuliaupupu. Both are going to make official visits to Ohio State and as one Front Row ...


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3 Buckeyes selected to Midseason All-American teams - 10TV
via Google News using key phrase "Buckeyes".


3 Buckeyes selected to Midseason All-American teams
10TV
Three of the Ohio State Buckeyes have been selected to various Midseason All-American football teams. Center Billy Price was named to the Associated Press midseason All-American team. Price, a two-time team captain, has started 48 consecutive games ...
Ohio State's Bosa, Price, Ward named midseason All-Americans247Sports

all 2 news articles »

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Texas star cuts list further and Buckeyes make it - 247Sports
via Google News using key phrase "Buckeyes".


Texas star cuts list further and Buckeyes make it
247Sports
In early August the Buckeyes offered a scholarship to Flower Mound (Texas) Marcus 2019 linebacker Marcel Brooks. It didn't take long for Brooks to name Ohio State one of his top choices. In late August Brooks named a Top 9 of Ohio State, TCU, Texas, ...

and more »

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After some early trepidation, Ohio State’s Jordan Fuller has embraced the move to safety
Brett Ludwiczak via our friends at Land-Grant Holy Land
Visit their fantastic blog and read the full article (and so much more) here


With plenty of talent at cornerback, coaches saw the New Jersey native better suited to help the Buckeyes at safety.

“I wasn’t ecstatic about it, but I was like, OK, they have (established) corners already here.”

Ohio State safety Jordan Fuller via Bill Rabinowitz, The Columbus Dispatch


Change is never easy, so when Ohio State’s coaches approached Jordan Fuller about moving from corner to safety last year, the freshman wasn’t exactly thrilled with the possible change. It’s easy to see why the Buckeyes wanted to move to safety though, with the surplus at talent Ohio State not only had last year at cornerback, but also with the talented recruits at cornerback they had coming in over the next few years.

So far the decision to move Fuller from cornerback to safety is paying off in spades for both Fuller and the Buckeyes. After Malik Hooker left for the NFL following last season, Fuller beat out Erick Smith for the starting spot opposite Damon Webb. Fuller isn’t making the coaches regret that decision, as evidenced by his performance against Nebraska, where he was named Ohio State’s defensive player of the game.

How fall along Fuller is in his progress at safety will be tested over the next month, when the Buckeyes enter the toughest part of their schedule. Next week Ohio State hosts Penn State, and Ohio State is going to need Fuller to continue playing at a high level if the Buckeyes have any hope of taking down the Nittany Lions and staying in the College Football Playoff race.

“If you look at the last six years, there’s been steady improvement from game one through game five (or) six. And the key to the championship year in ‘14 and a couple of good years we’ve had is that when you get the big games, the offense continues to perform. Last year, that did not happen.”

Ohio State head coach Urban Meyer via Mitch Stacy, Associated Press


After Ohio State’s loss to Oklahoma in early September, many Buckeye fans were ready to toss aside J.T. Barrett and see the Ohio State offense start fresh. Since the loss, Barrett has regained the confidence of his coaches, teammates, and fans, as Ohio State has had little trouble during a five-game winning streak.

The competition Ohio State has been playing during their winning streak hasn’t been very challenging, but the fact that the Buckeyes have destroyed those in their path since the loss to the Sooners is encouraging. Offensive coordinator Kevin Wilson has seen the Buckeyes practicing better since the Oklahoma loss, and he feels that is a big reason why Ohio State has been playing so well.

When Ohio State took on Oklahoma early in the year, not only was Wilson still trying to find out what works best in his first season with the Buckeyes, but Barrett wasn’t on the same page with his receivers. Since the loss, Barrett has put up some huge numbers, and you can see how he is a lot more comfortable with those he is throwing the football to.

The Buckeyes have their bye week this week to prepare for Penn State, and Meyer feels like his team is rounding into shape at just the right time. Following the game with the Nittany Lions, Ohio State also has tough contests with Michigan State, Iowa, and Michigan left in the regular season, along with a possible Big Ten title game. At least Ohio State is where Meyer thinks his team should be as they enter the hardest part of their schedule.

“Everybody’s pushing everybody. You can’t take one second off. It’s like our motto is, it’s next man up, so you got to be on your toes every day, every second. But I wouldn’t say it’s like a competition as far as the guys who are working. It’s like all right, come on. I’m going to do this, you’re going to do this, we’re going to try to get better together.”

Ohio State guard Demetrius Knox via Dan Hope, Eleven Warriors


Ohio State’s offensive line took a hit a few weeks ago when they lost Branden Bowen for the season to a leg injury he suffered against Maryland, but so far the Buckeyes haven’t showed the effects of the loss of Bowen. The reason Ohio State’s offensive line didn’t miss a beat against Nebraska was because of the performance of junior right guard Demetrius Knox.

Following the injury to Bowen, Matthew Burrell finished out the rest of the game at right guard, but Knox was able to win the open competition in practice last week ahead of the game in Lincoln, Neb., against the Cornhuskers. Head coach Urban Meyer graded Knox as a champion following the game for his performance.

Knox can’t rest too easy on his performance against Nebraska though, as both Burrell and Malcolm Pridgeon are going to push Knox the rest of the year. Hopefully the competition in practice will help Knox to only improve the rest of the year, and allow the Buckeyes to continue to rack up big numbers on offense.

“Our team has no quit and we’ll continue to play hard in every single game. I have no doubt we will show up against Michigan Saturday night and play as hard as they can.”

Ohio State men’s soccer head coach John Bluem via Shadi Ahmad, The Lantern


After a hot start to the season, Ohio State has cooled off more than the weather at night lately here in Columbus. The Buckeyes fell to Syracuse 2-1 last night at Jesse Owens Memorial Stadium, extending their losing streak to five games. Ohio State and Syracuse went into halftime tied at one, but a goal by the Orange less than five minutes in the second half proved to be the difference.

Now Ohio State will have to rebound quickly if they want to build any momentum for the Big Ten Tournament. On Saturday night the Buckeyes host Michigan, and following the fixture with the Wolverines, Ohio State only has matches against Kentucky and Wisconsin left next week before the end of the regular season. With Michigan and Wisconsin just ahead of Ohio State in the conference standings, this next week and a half will be critical for the Buckeyes.

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• The Circleville Pumpkin Festival kicked off yesterday.
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• An organic brewery is coming to Grandview in 2018.
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• Gord Downie, lead singer of The Tragically Hip, passed away on Wednesday after battling brain cancer.

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Take Two: Is five-star Jackson Carman a lock for Buckeyes? - Rivals.com (press release)
via Google News using key phrase "Buckeyes".


Take Two: Is five-star Jackson Carman a lock for Buckeyes?
Rivals.com (press release)
Take Two returns with a daily offering tackling a handful of issues in the college football landscape. Rivals.com National Recruiting Analyst Adam Gorney lays out the situation and then receives takes from Rivals.com National Recruiting Director Mike ...


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Diving deep into Ohio State’s advanced stats
Chad Peltier via our friends at Land-Grant Holy Land
Visit their fantastic blog and read the full article (and so much more) here


Here’s where the Buckeyes are at after 7 games.

The bye week comes at a perfect time for us to take a deep dive into Ohio State’s advanced stats — not only have the Buckeyes finished their Big Ten warm up games and are getting ready for a revenge game against Penn State, but the advanced stats profiles over at Football Study Hall have been updated with opponent adjustments (i.e., all of the “+” metrics) and all preseason projections have been phased out. So we’re getting a more precise understanding of this team’s strengths and weaknesses than we’ve had before.

Win expectancy vs. Oklahoma


Ohio State has played six games with a win expectancy of 100% — the only non-100% game was obviously against Oklahoma, at 4%. Win expectancy is defined as:


So essentially, if you take the weekly advanced box score numbers and ran them through a simulation 10,000 times, how often would Ohio State be expected to win that game? It helps account for randomness in games and how it affects final scores.

The 4% win expectancy vs. Oklahoma just underscores how poorly the Buckeyes played in that game and how lucky it was that the Sooners’ margin of victory wasn’t even bigger: Ohio State averaged approximately 1.7 fewer yards per play, had an offensive success rate that was six percentage points lower, and (the real killer) managed four fewer scoring opportunities than Oklahoma.

Win expectancy vs. Penn State and the rest of the schedule


So what does that say for the Penn State win probability and against the rest of the teams on Ohio State’s schedule?

S&P+ gives Ohio State a 71% win probability against Penn State, which equates to roughly a 9.7 point margin of victory for the Buckeyes.

Ohio State is the top-ranked S&P+ team, but Penn State is ranked third, so that’s a fairly high win probability and projected margin of victory considering this a matchup between top-3 teams. The reason is that there’s a pretty steep drop-off between Alabama and Penn State in the S&P+. The S&P+ points margin — which is how much a team would be favored by or underdogs to the theoretical average football team in the country (those teams are Duke, Western Kentucky, and Kentucky, by the way) — has Ohio State at +29.6, Alabama at 27.3, and then Penn State at 22.4. The difference between Ohio State and Penn State in S&P+ margin is the same as the difference between Penn State and Stanford, at 15th. So the S&P+ essentially sees two clear top teams, then a mass of everyone else -- which is what you would expect if you simulated this college football season using only composite recruiting rankings.

71% is a solid margin, but it’s also essentially saying that Penn State would get a win between one-in-three and one-in-four times they would play the game.

For the rest of the season, Ohio State has an equal likelihood of winning out or picking up one more loss — 42%.

First, stop the run


If there’s one thing this defense does well, it’s stopping the run. The Buckeye defense, led by the defensive line, is ranked 2nd overall in rushing S&P+. They’re 11th in unadjusted success rate (32.6%) and 3rd in IsoPPP (which measures the magnitude of successful plays, capturing explosiveness). They’re also 3rd in adjusted line yards, 4th in opportunity rate, and 10th in stuff rate.

No matter how you look at it — the Buckeye run defense is elite.

The remaining schedule has Saquon Barkley and Penn State’s 19th S&P+ rushing offense, and then no offense ranked higher than the 50s in rushing S&P+ — unless the Buckeyes get to the Big Ten Championship, where they’d likely face Wisconsin’s Jonathan Taylor and the Badgers’ 18th-ranked rushing offense.

The J.K. Dobbins effect


Speaking of strong running games, it can’t be overstated how important J.K. Dobbins has become to this offense, despite his limited carries. Here’s a comparison of advanced stats of a few other running backs:


Saquon Barkley ran away with the September Heisman (despite Bryce Love being the better candidate), but the two best-performing running backs were probably Dobbins and Wisconsin’s incredible Jonathan Taylor. Iowa tried a relatively different strategy to counter Penn State’s offense that others have now used too -- sell out to stop Barkley running, and you can more effectively slow the Nittany Lions offense overall. But still, Dobbins has been incredible despite his limited touches post-Indiana.

The two important takeaways about Dobbins are that he’s more efficient than you (or at least I) would’ve expected before the season started, and that his explosiveness truly brings a new dimension to the offense as a whole. When Dobbins was just a recruit, I thought his size suggested that he might be more of an H-back style player, similar to Demario McCall or one of Meyer’s running backs at Florida. But like Zeke before him, he’s really been an incredible all-around back — able to shoulder nearly 30 carries in Week 1 while maintaining a high opportunity rate, or percentage of carries of at least 5 yards.

Second, last year the Buckeyes ranked 84th in rushing IsoPPP despite ranking third overall in rushing S&P+. Essentially, the Buckeyes were incredible getting at regularly getting 5 yards per carry, but Weber and Barrett weren’t regularly getting much more than those 5 yards, either. Part of that had to do with opponents not fearing the passing game, so they could afford to stop the run first. But part of it is that Dobbins is simply more explosive, with better short-area burst than either.

Who is the best linebacker?


The linebackers are incredibly deep, led by a senior in Chris Worley, but have also taken a slight step back from last year. The linebackers rank just 61st in linebacker havoc rate, which looks at all of the big plays that the defense could make (forced fumbles, passes defensed, tackles for loss and sacks, interceptions).

The individual player success rates give us some ability to compare players in the same position group. Essentially they measure “an offense's success rate on plays in which the defender made a tackle. The lower the number, the better for the defender. On average, due to proximity to the line of scrimmage, defensive linemen will produce lower success rates than linebackers, who producer lower rates than defensive backs.” They don’t account for whether a game has gone into garbage time.

The linebackers are:

• Worley: 31.8%
• Baker: 24.1%
• Borland: 33.3%
• Booker: 40%

I think these are more successful comparing defensive linemen with each other and defensive backs against each other than linebackers, as it wouldn’t account for a situation where a linebacker whiffs in coverage, leading to a DB making the tackle — which we’ve seen a few times this season.

The passing game is incredible right now, even adjusting for opponents


We’ve noticed the offense’s passing success rate climb week-to-week, but this is the first week that opponent adjustments come in for the full passing S&P+ ranking: 5th overall in the country. For context, Ohio State was 64th last year, 26th in 2015, and 2nd in 2014.

Ohio State is also 1st overall on passing downs — due in no small part to their success on standard downs. But interestingly enough, the Buckeyes pass a ton on standard downs — 45.9% of the time, which is 92nd in standard downs run rate. On passing downs, they run much more often — 38.9% of the time, or 40th. Essentially, the Buckeyes have been extraordinarily balanced on early downs, allowing them to run more often on passing downs to get the first — and they have a 44.4% passing downs success rate (3rd overall).

The big question is whether that balance on standard downs will change against tougher opponents. Is Wilson calling these early passes for practice throwing the ball, or can we expect a similar run/pass distribution against teams like Penn State, MSU, and Michigan?

In terms of individual wide receivers, we’ve seen the unit as a whole step up now that there’s a more coherent passing strategy. Five receivers have at least 200 receiving yards, and the top receiver — Parris Campbell — still only has 405. Part of that is due to blowouts (C.J. Saunders has 183 receiving yards, which is more than Austin Mack), but part is due to efficiently spreading the ball around, too. Johnnie Dixon is the most explosive option, averaging 27.6 yards per catch, but he only has 17 targets and 10 catches. Parris Campbell is excellent at yards after the catch, ranking second with 14.5 average yards per catch.

It’s difficult to distinguish any of the other receivers from their average yards per catch, target rates, success rates, or catch rate numbers. That was a bad thing last year, but could be a good thing this season, since the passing game as whole has improved. Ohio State hasn’t needed a go-to receiver in a critical situation since the Oklahoma game when it’s clear that the passing game evolved, so it remains to be seen whether not having an obvious go-to receiver could be an issue in a tight game.

One area the passing game still needs some work is in pass blocking. Isaiah Prince is better this year, but the offensive line still ranks 66th in adjusted sack rate.

The pass defense still has work to do


Right now, I’d argue that the pass defense is the biggest concern. There are still questions about the passing offense/play calling against elite opponents, but the S&P+ has the Ohio State pass defense at 32nd. That’s serviceable considering where they were ranked in total passing yards allowed after the Oklahoma game, but it’s still a cause for concern against elite passing offenses. The only question is whether Penn State can exploit that weakness.

We’ll get in to this more next week in the advanced stats preview, but there’s been a little regression from the Nittany Lions, as they had the 2nd-ranked passing S&P+ offense in 2016, but are 26th now — and 53rd in IsoPPP compared to 4th from a year ago.

Ohio State is better at getting sacks than they were a year ago, ranking 16th in adjusted sack rate to 78th last year. We wrote a lot over the offseason about why the Buckeyes were so poorly ranked in sack rate -- was it due to the lack of a single elite pass rusher, or due to a conscious strategy to force turnovers at the expense of sacks (Hubbard’s Match the Hand drill). Ohio State forces an average of one interception per game this year (41st) compared to 1.62 last season (3rd overall) — but a lot of the difference in interceptions can also be attributed to the lack of Malik Hooker in the secondary.

And speaking of individual members of the secondary, here are their success rates:

• Jordan Fuller: 56.3%
• Damon Webb: 61.8%
• Erick Smith: 63.2%
• Kendall Sheffield: 73.9%
• Denzel Ward: 50%
• Damon Arnette: 62.5%

These success rates don’t tell the whole story, like I mentioned above talking about the linebackers, but they’re helpful nonetheless: Jordan Fuller looks like the best safety and a rising star in the secondary, Denzel Ward looks like the best corner, and Sheffield has been the tackler for a lot of successful plays by opposing offenses.

Finally, the secondary ranks 38th in DB havoc rate — pretty similar to the 35th from last season.

Some smaller points

• The offense trails off in the 4th quarter, largely due to backups going in: they rank 18th in S&P+ after averaging 6th over the first three quarters.
• Ohio State has the country’s best second down offense, and best first-down defense.
• Ohio State’s special teams have been an adventure, particularly on kickoff. And the stats show that too — Ohio State ranks 111th in kickoff success rate.
• Meyer always says that players who prove themselves on special teams are likely to have expanded roles in the future. Besides senior stars Elijaah Goins and Zach Turnure, Amir Riep, Keandre Jones, and Pete Werner are all underclassmen who lead Ohio State in special teams tacklers.

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A closer look: An overhyped Jim Harbaugh overshadows other Big Ten coaches
Kyle Sumner McKinnon via our friends at Land-Grant Holy Land
Visit their fantastic blog and read the full article (and so much more) here


It’s time to debunk one the most ridiculous narratives in college football.

The Big Ten is one of, if not the best conference in college football right now.

Penn State, Michigan, Wisconsin, Michigan State and Ohio State are all legitimate contenders to make the College Football Playoff.

Powering those premier Big Ten programs are coaches. Not all are good at coaching, but coaches that are good at coaching, is good.

The conference has quite a few of those, including Mr. Michigan himself, Jim Harbaugh.

Harbaugh was a gem of a get for the Wolverines in 2014. He’s lifted the team out of perennial turmoil and finished each of his first two years at the helm with back-to-back 10-win seasons. It goes without mentioning that Harbaugh has been everything the folks in Ann Arbor hoped for.

But to say he’s definitively the best coach in the B1G second only to Urban Meyer would be a massive mistake, let alone a false statement.

His $7 million annual salary – second-highest in college football – is no indication of the on-the-field results.

It’s easy to ride the hype train and forget the facts. I get it. Harbaugh has won in college and in the pros. He has the recruiting knowhow and has backed it up with No. 7 and No. 3 classes during his first two full cycles. And pairing him with Michigan is a match made in heaven.

Harbaugh is great at what he does, no doubt. But better than everyone in the Big Ten besides Meyer?

I’m not so sure.

How Harbaugh Stacks Up


The third-year Michigan coach has built his brand revitalizing down programs.

He’s taken the Wolverines, Stanford, the San Diego Toreros (FCS Pioneer Football League), and the San Francisco 49ers and turned them all into viable entities.

At the college level, Harbaugh’s biggest victories are in the Orange bowl (2011) and the Citrus Bowl (2016). He’s yet to win his own conference and is on track to again finish third in the Big Ten.

Staying true to his career pattern, Harbaugh’s run in the NFL was successful, but short lived. He led a maligned 49ers team that hadn’t made the playoffs in nine years to the NFC Championship three consecutive seasons, not to mention a Super Bowl appearance.

Harbaugh went 44-19 in San Francisco before he and the team parted ways.



In his time at Ann Arbor, Harbaugh has compiled a 25-7 record despite being 1-4 versus his two main rivals, Michigan State and OSU.

Here’s how he stacks up against other prominent Big Ten coaches.

(Note: Records in the NFL and FCS are not included.)



Compared to the field, nothing particularly stands out about Harbaugh’s resume.

He has just two career bowl victories, one of those being a New Year’s Six Bowl game. His collegiate-level numbers are dwarfed or equaled by some of his Big Ten counterparts.

The incredible job Mark Dantonio, who’s beaten Michigan eight out of the past 10 seasons, has done in growing Michigan State into a contender – coupled with his career record – makes him virtually incomparable to Harbaugh.

Paul Chryst has enjoyed a really nice run at Wisconsin for the past few years. Penn State’s sudden resurgence has James Franklin’s fingerprints all over it, and he has a conference title and Rose Bowl appearance that proves as much.

I’d still take Harbaugh over Kirk Ferentz any day, though.

What Sets Harbaugh Apart


He may be overhyped, but Harbaugh is one of the top coaches in college football today.

Not many are better at keeping their program relevant. He has an eye for talent and is as good a recruiter as you’ll find in the country. While Harbaugh hasn’t necessarily won big throughout his career, his teams have produced regardless if they’re in the FBS, FCS, or the NFL.

His ability to quickly implement culture change, bring in high-end players, and simply win games is matched by few in the Big Ten and beyond.

Conclusion


Coaches that dominate headlines usually aren’t great at the whole coaching thing.

Consider Harbaugh the outlier.

He does things his way, and his way works. Players flock to Harbaugh, teams improve under him, and program cultures change for the better because of his presence.

No matter how Michigan’s season ends – it was supposed to be a rebuilding season – Harbaugh remains unquestionably one of the best coaches around.

Not the best. Not even second-best.

But one of the best.

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Buckeyes' progress pleases Meyer as Penn State game looms - New York Daily News
via Google News using key phrase "Buckeyes".


Buckeyes' progress pleases Meyer as Penn State game looms
New York Daily News
Coach Urban Meyer says he likes the progress of the Buckeyes' offense in the past month. He says quarterback J.T. Barrett and the passing game is clicking with Penn State and other tougher games looming after the bye week. (AP Photo/Nati Harnik, File).
Ohio State Buckeyes alternate jerseys much more gray than scarletCincinnati.com
Ohio State football podcast: Thad Matta's influence remains with Buckeyes basketballLandof10.com
Has Demetrius Knox locked down the Buckeyes right guard job? Ohio State football analysiscleveland.com
The Columbus Dispatch -247Sports
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I have 2 tix in 16c for PSU

DM me if interested

B1G Media Day Notebook: New schedule, new rules & new faces
Tom Dienhart, BTN.com Senior Writer via Big Ten Network

BTN's Tom Dienhart reports back from Big Ten Media Day in New York City with news and notes from around the Big Ten.

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Buckeyes' progress pleases Meyer as Penn State game looms - Artesia Daily Press
via Google News using key phrase "Buckeyes".


Buckeyes' progress pleases Meyer as Penn State game looms
Artesia Daily Press
Coach Urban Meyer says he likes the progress of the Buckeyes' offense in the past month. He says quarterback J.T. Barrett and the passing game is clicking with Penn State and other tougher games looming after the bye week. (AP Photo/Nati Harnik, File).
Ohio State Buckeyes alternate jerseys much more gray than scarletCincinnati.com
Ohio State football podcast: Thad Matta's influence remains with Buckeyes basketballLandof10.com
Has Demetrius Knox locked down the Buckeyes right guard job? Ohio State football analysiscleveland.com
247Sports
all 62 news articles »

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USC-Notre Dame takes the cake of Week 8’s national College Football betting lines
Brett Ludwiczak via our friends at Land-Grant Holy Land
Visit their fantastic blog and read the full article (and so much more) here


The Trojans and Fighting Irish battle in South Bend to stay in the College Football Playoff picture

Last week ATS: 5-6-1 (2-4 National, 3-2-1 B1G)

Season ATS: 52-44-2 (20-17 National, 32-27-2 B1G)

Last week could have been better, but it also could have been worse. After the first few games of the week I figured a terrible week was in order after losses from Washington State, Kansas State, Illinois, and a tie against the spread in the Michigan-Indiana game. Thankfully a stronger finish helped to keep MC&J from losing much of the early season progress.

National games:


No. 10 Oklahoma State (-7) v. Texas - 12:00 PM EST - ABC

Oklahoma State is hoping to continue working their way back into the College Football Playoff picture when they head to Austin for Saturday’s contest with the Longhorns. Last week the Cowboys put up 747 total yards of offense in a 59-16 win over Baylor. The offensive outburst moved Oklahoma State into the top spot offensively among FBS teams.

Heading into last week’s action the nation’s top offensive team was Oklahoma, who handed Texas a 29-24 win in the Red River Showdown. While the Longhorns have had success slowing opponents on the ground, they have had issues defending the pass. Sam Darnold threw for nearly 400 yards against Texas earlier in the year, while Baker Mayfield threw for 302 last week.

How much does Texas have in the tank for this game? Two weeks ago the Longhorns went to double overtime against Kansas State, and last week’s close loss in a rivalry game against the Sooners had to take a lot out of them. Mason Rudolph will put up big numbers as the Cowboys win their fifth straight in Austin.

Oklahoma State 38, Texas 28

Syracuse v. No. 8 Miami (FL) (-16) - 3:30 PM EST - ESPN

At some point Miami’s luck has to run out, right? RIGHT?? After scoring with six seconds to go two weeks ago to beat Florida State, last week the Hurricanes kicked a field goal with four seconds left to deny Georgia Tech’s upset attempt.

Malik Rosier looks like the real deal at quarterback for the Hurricanes, with the junior having thrown 12 touchdowns and only three interceptions through five games. Last week Travis Homer stepped in for an injured Mark Walton and rushed for 170 against the Yellow Jackets.

This isn’t the Syracuse team you have become accustomed to. Dino Babers has the Orange full of confidence right now. Junior quarterback Eric Dungey has lit up the stat sheet so far this year, accounting for 20 touchdowns.

For the way Syracuse is playing right now, I think Miami is laying too many points. Maybe the Hurricanes put everything together and blow the Orange out, but I don’t see that happening. The Orange played LSU and NC State tough on the road earlier this year. Dungey makes enough plays to keep this within double-digits.

Miami 34, Syracuse 27

No. 20 UCF (-7) v. Navy - 3:30 PM EST - CBS Sports Network

This very well could be the best game of the week that barely anybody will see. Central Florida is thriving under Scott Frost, who is in his second year as head coach. The Golden Knights have scored at least 38 points in every game this season, as they angle for the Group of Five spot in the New Year’s Six.

Five turnovers were too much for the Midshipmen to overcome last week, as Memphis was able to hand Navy their first loss of the season. Even with the loss, Navy is still averaging nearly 400 yards per game on the ground.

At least if Central Florida is going to slow down Navy’s option attack, they have Frost running scout team quarterback. Even with Frost’s expertise in game-planning on how to stop the option, Central Florida won’t win by more than a touchdown in Annapolis. The Midshipmen play a lot cleaner than they did a week ago, and give the Golden Knights their first true contest of the season.

UCF 31, Navy 27

No. 9 Oklahoma (-14) v. Kansas State - 4:00 PM EST - FOX

Last week I rode with Kansas State and it was a huge mistake. TCU came into “The Little Apple” and had little trouble with the Wildcats. Quarterback Jesse Ertz missed the game after getting injured the previous week against Texas, and backup Alex Delton found little success against the Horned Frogs.

Oklahoma was able to bounce back from a loss to Iowa State with a win last week in Dallas over Texas. Baker Mayfield remains one of the front runners for the Heisman Trophy, having thrown for 17 touchdowns and just one interception so far this year.

Kansas State is reeling right now, and I just have no confidence in the Wildcats in this spot. Ertz might be back, but even if he does play, he won’t be able to match with Mayfield. The Sooners have planted their flag in Manhattan since 2000, winning the last six times they’ve come to town; scoring at least 41 points in each of the last four contests against the Wildcats.

Oklahoma 44, Kansas State 21

No. 11 USC v. No. 13 Notre Dame (-4) - 7:30 PM EST - NBC

The USC-Notre Dame rivalry could actually be fun again. This year marks the first time since 2009 that both teams are ranked heading into the Battle for the Jeweled Shillelagh. Saturday night’s matchup in South Bend has plenty at stake, with the loser surely being out of the College Football Playoff picture.

Last week needed second half heroics from Sam Darnold and Ronald Jones II to erase a 21-7 halftime deficit to Utah. More often than not this year, USC hasn’t played all that well. If the Trojans are able to get by Notre Dame on Saturday night, they’ll have four very winnable games to close out the year, followed by the Pac-12 title game to state their case for the CFP.

After finishing the 2016 season with a 4-8 record, Notre Dame has put all the jokes to bed in 2017. Aside from the Georgia game (which they lost by a point), Notre Dame has had little trouble in their other five games. The Fighting Irish are fifth in the country at running the football, averaging over 300 yards per game on the ground. Junior running back Josh Adams is averaging nine yards per carry so far this year.

The Trojans have a lot of injuries on defense right now, and that spells trouble against a Notre Dame offense that has been rolling so far this year. I’m also getting tired of siding with USC only to have them fail to cover. USC has bit me in the Texas, Washington State, and Utah games so far this year, so I’m spitefully taking the Fighting Irish.

Notre Dame 33, USC 24

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Big Ten hoops in the Big Apple? New York’s big stage is worth the sacrifices
Tom Dienhart, BTN.com Senior Writer via Big Ten Network

The 2018 Big Ten Men's Basketball Tournament will be in New York City but not without having to change the regular season schedule. Here's what it all means.

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Buckeyes' progress pleases Meyer as Penn State game looms - FOXSports.com
via Google News using key phrase "Buckeyes".


Buckeyes' progress pleases Meyer as Penn State game looms
FOXSports.com
He's piled up passing yards and touchdowns in five straight blowouts since the Buckeyes lost to Oklahoma in Week 2. Despite beating badly out-manned opponents in those contests, coach Urban Meyer said Barrett and the rest of the offense have made ...
Ohio State Buckeyes alternate jerseys much more gray than scarletCincinnati.com
Ohio State football podcast: Thad Matta's influence remains with Buckeyes basketballLandof10.com
Has Demetrius Knox locked down the Buckeyes right guard job? Ohio State football analysiscleveland.com
247Sports
all 58 news articles »

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CATCHING UP WITH ROD GERALD.



Former Ohio State quarterback Rod Gerald recently sat down with esteemed 12th Warrior GoBucks2204 to discuss his legacy in Columbus and quest for redemption.

The Rod Gerald Story: Finding Redemption, Part 1
http://www.howfirmthyfriendship.com/2017/10/the-rod-gerald-story-finding-redemption.html

Gerald just underwent his third back surgery on Oct. 12th. If you enjoyed watching him play and are in the position to donate, you can help the old Buckeye with medical bills.
http://akickincrowd.com/projects/rod-gerald1

Entire article: https://www.elevenwarriors.com/skul...io-state-buckeyes-football-penn-state-big-nut

For those that don't remember Rod Gerald, he is mostly remembered for 2 things:

1. having a drug problem....Ohio State lost the 1978 Sugar Bowl 35-6 to Alabama since Gerald couldn't get his "cocaine fix" before the game

Former Ohio State quarterback Rod Gerald opened up to David Briggs of The Toledo Blade in an excellent story that starts with his worst nightmare from facing Alabama in the 1977 Sugar Bowl: running out of cocaine.

Struggling with a bum back and a small fracture in his leg, [former OSU quarterback Rod Gerald] remembers popping three pills of Tylenol with codeine that January night in 1978. But Gerald felt lost without the countering effects of cocaine. By then, he said he needed the stimulant to perform.

He snorted until his nose bled during a trip to Southern Methodist University, then kept the drug in his wristband during the Michigan game. The withdrawal was a nightmare.

“Going to New Orleans, I probably would have taken an eight ball,” Gerald said, using the street name for three and a half grams of cocaine. “I’d have to use it in practice, use it to go in the meetings, use it to go to functions, use it to go to dinner. From morning to night, I would have to use cocaine. Not having it, going down there without it, it was like ... I [remember] just being frightened, afraid that I had nothing.”

Ohio State got waxed in that game, 35-6, by the way.

2. The next season Gerald willingly switched positions from QB to WR so a freshman named Art Schlichter could start at QB

Buckeyes' progress pleases Meyer as Penn State game looms - USA TODAY
via Google News using key phrase "Buckeyes".


Buckeyes' progress pleases Meyer as Penn State game looms
USA TODAY
He's piled up passing yards and touchdowns in five straight blowouts since the Buckeyes lost to Oklahoma in Week 2. Despite beating badly out-manned opponents in those contests, coach Urban Meyer said Barrett and the rest of the offense have made ...


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As it stands, kicker Blake Haubeil is the only 2017 scholarship player with a black stripe remaining.

Two more Buckeyes have black stripe removed - 247Sports
via Google News using key phrase "Buckeyes".


Two more Buckeyes have black stripe removed
247Sports
Two more Buckeyes have black stripe removed. Two more Ohio State football players have had their black stripe removed and are officially Buckeyes. Bill Kurelic - 41 minutes ago; 1; Tools. Edit; Slot to 247Sports Home; Slot to Ohio State Buckeyes ...

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He is off the board. Committed to Kansas. Get him off the big board. Thank you.

Big Ten basketball is moving to a 20 game conference schedule. Here’s what that means for Ohio State
Matt Brown via our friends at Land-Grant Holy Land
Visit their fantastic blog and read the full article (and so much more) here


It’s both good news and bad news

Big changes are coming to Ohio State’s basketball schedules.

The Big Ten announced today that starting next season, the league will move to a 20 game league schedule, instead of the 18 game slate league teams are currently playing. The conference will “protect” three rivalries, Michigan-Michigan State, Indiana-Purdue and Illinois-Northwestern, which will be played twice a season. Other teams will play seven teams twice and six teams once a season.

The league also said they would prioritize “regional” opponents in setting up future schedules. Over a six year period, a team can expect to play a “regional” opponent 10 times, as opposed to nine for any other opponent. What constitutes a “regional” opponent wasn’t specifically spelled out, but for Ohio State fans, I think we can assume that will at least include Michigan.

So, what does this mean for Ohio State? It’s good news and bad news, in my humble opinion.

What’s the good news?

• This almost certainly will help future RPI and strength of schedule metrics. Over a six year period, those two extra Big Ten games will almost always be better opponents than who Ohio State might schedule out of conference, and the Buckeyes will get an extra opportunity to pick up a quality road win. Trading two low-major games for say, dates with Iowa and Illinois is a win for fans and metrics.
• This makes Big Ten basketball schedules a little more fair. With such a huge league, an 18 game schedule led to some pretty significant variances in schedule difficulty. If you happened to get home and homes with Nebraska and Rutgers, and missed a road trip to a place like Madison, you’d be at a big advantage, standings-wise, over another potential opponent. A larger schedule levels out those imbalances a little bit.

What’s the bad news?

• This probably makes it harder to schedule more difficult out of conference games. New Ohio State coach Chris Holtmann has not been shy about wanting to play an aggressive schedule, but he also told the Columbus Dispatch that hey, “You can’t play 30 high-major games...That’s not fair to your team.” Next season, Ohio State already has a date with Cincinnati, an ACC/Big Ten Challenge game, and probably a Gavvitt game against a Big East opponent. If you know you now have two more Big Ten caliber opponents, is there an incentive to go find another KenPom top-75 program? Maybe not. Think of this as trading some potentially interesting games in November for ones in January.
• In the event that one or two Big Ten teams really suck, like Rutgers did in 2016 (KenPom ranking: 279), additional games run the risk of actually diluting Ohio State’s metrics. That horrible Rutgers team might have cost multiple Big Ten squads a seed line in the NCAA Tournament. It’s unlikely a Big Ten team gets that bad again, but hey, you never know.

Overall, it’s probably a good thing for Buckeye fans. The schedules are going to get better, NCAA Tournament resumes may improve, and you get two more games against teams you’re more likely to care about.

It’s not a sure thing, but hey, what is?

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