Ohio State travels to Penn State, while Wisconsin battles Iowa in Week 8’s Big Ten college football bets, odds
Brett Ludwiczak via our friends at Land-Grant Holy Land
Visit their fantastic blog and read the full article (and so much more) here


The Buckeyes look to win their second straight road night game, while the Badgers and Hawkeyes battle for the Heartland Trophy.

Miss the national game picks from yesterday? Sadly you already missed one winner. For the other four picks you can find them here.

Last week ATS: 8-3 (3-2 National, 5-1 B1G)

Season ATS: 45-48-3 (18-21-1 National, 27-27-2 B1G)

B1G Games:


No. 10 Wisconsin (-4) v. Iowa - 12:00 PM EST - ESPN

Wisconsin is currently riding a two-game losing streak, but it's easy to understand why they are ranked 10th in the country when those losses came to Michigan and Ohio State. The Badgers gave the Buckeyes everything they could handle last week, but came up just short. Last week Wisconsin was able to rush for 236 yards against Ohio State, so they could be in for a big day against an Iowa defense that has struggled at times to stop opponents on the ground.

The Hawkeyes had little trouble dispatching Purdue last week, but they fell asleep just a bit in the fourth quarter, which allowed the Boilermakers to close the gap to 14 points. LeShun Daniels Jr. and Akrum Wadley became the first pair of Iowa players since 2008 to rush for 100 yards in the same game. Iowa will find the sledding a little tougher this week, as Wisconsin is allowing opponents just over 100 yards per game on the ground this year.

Iowa hasn't looked right this year, and I don't think a win against Purdue is going to fix many of their problems. On the other hand, Wisconsin needs a win to stay in the Big Ten West race. It won't be pretty, but Wisconsin wins in Iowa City for the fourth straight time.

Wisconsin 24, Iowa 17

Indiana v. Northwestern (-2.5) - 12:00 PM EST - Big Ten Network

Indiana yet again had another game against a tough foe in which they had a shot at winning, but just didn't have enough to earn the victory. A couple bounces go the other way and Indiana might be sitting at 5-1 right now instead of 3-3. The difference between this Indiana team and Hoosier teams of years past is this year they at least have a little bit of defense to go along with an offense that can move the football both through the air and on the ground.

So Northwestern can go from losing to Illinois State to take Michigan State to the woodshed in about a month. Ok. College football is weird sometimes. Justin Jackson had little trouble making his way through the defense of the Spartans, rushing for a career-high 188 yards against Michigan State. Quarterback Clayton Thorson was also very good last week, throwing for 281 yards and three touchdowns in the blowout.

Next week Northwestern comes to Columbus, so they'll want to head into the showdown with the Buckeyes on a high note. After playing Michigan State, Ohio State, and Nebraska the last three weeks, I wonder how much Indiana has left in the tank. This should be a fun game, but I think Northwestern ends up taking it in Evanston.

Northwestern 30, Indiana 23

Rutgers v. Minnesota (-19) - 12:00 PM EST - ESPNU

For a second week in a row Minnesota will be without Mitch Leidner, but it's not like it'll matter since the Golden Gophers are playing Rutgers. Minnesota should be able to run all over a Rutgers defense that is allowing over 260 yards per game on the ground. Get ready for another ugly Rutgers loss.

Minnesota 38, Rutgers 10

Purdue v. No. 8 Nebraska (-24) - 3:30 PM EST - ABC/ESPN2

So long Darrell Hazell, we hardly knew ye. The former Ohio State assistant was fired on Sunday, all before he was able to reach double-digits in wins with the Boilermakers. Wide receivers coach Gerard Parker will take the reigns for Purdue as interim head coach. If there is a little hope for Purdue, they can at least remember to last year when they took down Nebraska 55-45 in West Lafayette. That and quarterback David Blough usually puts up some big numbers since the Boilermakers have to throw the football so much because they are usually fall so far behind opponents.

Nebraska nearly blew an early 17-0 lead against Indiana last week, but the Cornhuskers were able to hold on to stay undefeated. Nebraska still has to deal with injuries all the over the place it seems like, but it shouldn’t matter all that much since they are at home this week and playing the Boilermakers.

This might seem a little crazy but I do like Purdue to cover this week. Maybe firing Hazell will shake things up a little bit and allow the Boilermakers to play a little looser than normal. Also, if Nebraska gets up big they could call off the dogs which would make them ripe for a backdoor cover. The arm of David Blough keeps things within 24 points late in the game.

Nebraska 48, Purdue 27

Illinois v. No. 3 Michigan (-39) - 3:30 PM EST - Big Ten Network

The last time we saw Michigan, they crushed Rutgers 78-0. Illinois isn’t much better than Rutgers. Jabrill Peppers will do somethings against a bad team and people will give him even more Heisman hype. The Wolverines send a message to Michigan State with a blowout victory ahead of next week’s showdown between the teams.

Michigan 55, Illinois 7

Michigan State (-3) v. Maryland - 7:30 PM EST - Big Ten Network

What on earth has happened to Michigan State? Before the season began many thought the Spartans could be a sleeper in the Big Ten East, but now they just look like they’re asleep. It is not known whether Tyler O’Connor or Brian Lewerke will start at quarterback, and even if one does we’ll probably end up seeing the other at some point.

Maryland will be hoping to get quarterback Perry Hills back, and the Terrapins will certainly need him after the way they’ve played recently, losing their last two games. The Terrapins will probably try and keep the football on the ground since that’s where they excel, averaging 250 yards per game rushing.

I have to think that at some point Michigan State snaps out of it. The Spartans have too much talent, especially on defense, to play this bad. With Michigan on deck next week, I think we get a lot stronger performance out of the Spartans than we have over the past few weeks and they find a way to hand Maryland their third straight loss.

Michigan State 30, Maryland 20

No. 2 Ohio State (-19.5) v. Penn State - 8:00 PM EST - ABC

I was off on my Ohio State pick last week, but in the end I’m just happy they found a way to get the win in Madison. There was a point in the second half where it looked like the Buckeyes might have a shot to cover, but Wisconsin was just too tough. Now Ohio State plays their second night road game in a row, as they’ll head to Happy Valley for a “white out”.

Even though it’s never easy to go into Penn State and leave with a victory, the Buckeyes will probably find things a little more to their liking on Saturday night. Penn State doesn’t have nearly the defense that they’ve had in the past due to a number of injuries, and they certainly don’t have a defense like Wisconsin does. That should open up things a little more for J.T. Barrett, Mike Weber, Curtis Samuel, and the rest of the Ohio State offense.

Much like Wisconsin, Penn State had some extra time to prepare for the Buckeyes thanks to a bye week. Obviously the Nittany Lions are going to try and get running back Saquon Barkley involved early and often. Not only is the sophomore coming off a career-high 202 yard rushing performance against Maryland a couple weeks ago, but last year he gashed the Buckeyes for 194 yards in Columbus.

As long as the Buckeyes are able to contain Barkley, I don’t think they’ll have too much trouble in this game. Aside from last week when Wisconsin ran for 236 yards against Ohio State, the Buckeyes have been stout against the run this year. A good chunk of Wisconsin’s rushing yards came on the jet sweep as well. I don’t know if Penn State has something quite like that to keep Ohio State on their toes.

I feel like a homer going with Ohio State in this one giving so many points when they have had issues at Penn State under the lights but I just don’t think the Nittany Lions will be able to keep up. As long as Ohio State jumps out early and is able to put a couple scores on the board, they can take away a lot of what Barkley brings Penn State and put the ball in Trace McSorley’s hands, which will be bad for Penn State with the pressure the Buckeyes will surely bring.

Ohio State 45, Penn State 21

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Week 8 Big Ten previews: After last week's clash, Badgers, Buckeyes hit the road - Comcast SportsNet Chicago
via Google News using key phrase "Buckeyes".


Week 8 Big Ten previews: After last week's clash, Badgers, Buckeyes hit the road
Comcast SportsNet Chicago
But a week after the thriller proved both teams are championship-caliber, both hit the road for in-division tests that will certainly keep them on their toes. If we're going to get a Buckeyes-Badgers rematch for the Big Ten title in Indy, Ohio State ...
Follow the future: Huge games feature multiple Buckeye commits247Sports
Big Ten midseason report: All-East offense features plenty of BuckeyesLandof10.com
Men's soccer: Ohio State stares down date with MichiganOSU - The Lantern
CBS Local -The Daily Gopher -The Detroit News
all 99 news articles »

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Follow the future: Huge games feature multiple Buckeye commits - 247Sports
via Google News using key phrase "Buckeyes".


Follow the future: Huge games feature multiple Buckeye commits
247Sports
While a Wisconsin win makes the Buckeyes' win in Madison look even better, I'm not so sure the Buckeyes want the Badgers back in control of the Big Ten West. Who would you rather play in Indianapolis: Wisconsin or Iowa? The answer for me is Iowa, ...

and more »

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Well, I avoided posting on this thread last week as I didn't want to jinx the bucks in this one. Seems like since the 90s I'll take any win in any fashion against Wisky. Still remember getting our butts handed to us back in 99. Up 17-0 and go on to lose 17-42 at the shoe. Possibly my worst memory of a game at the Shoe. 42 unanswered points! Ron Dayne went for 4 TDs and passed Archie Griffin and Herschel Walker for career rushing yardage. Surprise starter, redshirt freshman Brooks Bollinger was steady and hurt us through the air and on the ground with timely runs. Used to be a foregone conclusion that we would beat Wisconsin. Not since that game in my mind. ALWAYS love beating them, especially in Camp Randall, especially when they are ranked. Haha, does it sting Barry? Could only be better if they climb out of their badger hole to win the west and we beat them again in the BIG Championship Game. Go Bucks!!!

Starting fast will be crucial for Ohio State against Penn State
Colton Denning via our friends at Land-Grant Holy Land
Visit their fantastic blog and read the full article (and so much more) here


Finding a rhythm and winning the passing downs battle are musts this week.

The last time we saw the 2016 Ohio State Buckeyes was certainly a moment to remember. After a sluggish first half that reminded many of a game that I’ve somehow already forgotten from last year, the Buckeyes picked themselves up off the mat and earned a tough, overtime victory in Madison, Wisconsin, which —by the way— also happens to be their 20th road win in a row. The reward for their gutsy performance? A trip to Penn State this week; For another night game in a crazed stadium, and another chance to extend their ridiculous road winning streak, and keep themselves in the thick of the playoff race. So not much, right?

The Nittany Lions come into Saturday’s game 4-2, having only lost a tough battle to Pittsburgh, and not having much of a battle with Michigan. Penn State is genuinely improved this season, and despite my personal preference for making fun of anything James Franklin related, the Nittany Lions present a ton of potential problems for Ohio State.

Between Penn State coming off a bye, Saquon Barkley’s ability, their bizarrely explosive passing downs offense, and a raucous crowd, the Buckeyes will have their hands full, especially after such an emotion win last week. So with that in mind, here are five things to watch for on Saturday night:

Prep Time


One of the major themes from last week’s game was how different Wisconsin looked offensively compared to previous weeks. Coming off a bye, the Badgers ran at least four new concepts, —not including the jet sweep to Jazz Peavy that repeatedly chewed up yards— keeping Buckeye defenders (and coaches) off balance in the first half.

With almost two weeks to prepare, Wisconsin’s coaching staff developed a good gameplan, and though Ohio State adjusted in the second half, it was almost enough to win. Penn State is coming off a bye of their own this week, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see them put up the same fight.

Happy Valley will be rocking, and the Buckeyes would do well to not get themselves in another early rut. It will be interesting to see if they have a quicker counter to some of the different looks Penn State throws at them on each side of the ball. As Matt Brown and I discussed on this week’s podcast, it isn’t far-fetched to think Penn State wins tomorrow, and from my perspective, a lot of that has to do with how Ohio State starts the game.

If the Buckeyes have some early success in each phase, it should not only give them confidence, but also keep the crowd at a simmer. If they can’t, we may be looking at the same type of game last week’s was, and maybe a loss.

Rhythm


To avoid the same problems as last week, it’s crucial that the passing game finds its grove from the get-go. Penn State’s defense should provide the opportunity, as they rank 103rd in 1st Quarter Defensive S&P+, and have consistently let opposing quarterbacks shred them (107th in 1st quarter QB rating). Unfortunately, Ohio State’s offense hasn’t shown the ability to consistently do that yet. What they did in the second half against Wisconsin may provide some hope, though.

After finishing only 6/14 for 81 yards in the first half, Barrett and co. exploded (for them) in the second half and overtime, completing 11/16 passes for 145 yards, including the game-winning touchdown to Noah Brown. For whatever reason, the Buckeyes found a rhythm through the air, with Barrett making some of the most impressive throws of his career, and the wide receivers stepping up after what was a rough start against the Badger secondary.

It’s not clear why the Buckeyes passing game has struggled so mightily to start games this season, but it does seem like once they get into a rhythm, they’ve been able to supplement an already dangerous ground attack with an efficient and (sometimes) explosive passing game. Let’s see if they can make that a reality from the jump, and not just when the game is on the line.

Hope to contain


in recent years, a lot of opposing team’s inner monologues before playing Ohio State have probably gone like this:

“Well, we’re not going to completely stop Miller/Hyde/Elliott/Bosa/Lee/Barrett etc. so we’ve got to limit the damage they do.”

It’s a smart line of thinking. Truly great players are almost always going to find ways to get theirs eventually, but opposing teams must find ways to limit them. Whether that’s forcing other players to beat you, making tweaks to your scheme, etc. it’s a tall task to contain a legitimate star in college football, and one that Ohio State’s defense faces this week.

Touted as a future first-round pick by Meyer, running back Saquon Barkley has the ability to single-handedly keep the Nittany Lions in tomorrow’s game. The true sophomore torched the Buckeyes for 194 yards rushing in last year’s contest —not including a long touchdown called back for holding— and is Penn State’s greatest offensive threat. After the run defense’s poor performance against Wisconsin, the need to contain Barkley is even greater.

The good news is that Penn State struggles to get a push on standard downs, (125th in Standard Down Line Yards per Carry) while the Buckeye defense has thrived (1st). They’ll need to play at that form if they’re to limit Barkley.

You should be watching Barkley anyway because of how good he is, but keep a particularly close eye on his performance on standard downs. He’ll no doubt break some impressive runs, but if the defense can contain the damage, they should be set for an epic battle on passing downs.

Rushmen, Rushmen, Rushmen


For all its flaws, Penn State’s offense has been extraordinary when they’ve needed to be. The Nittany Lions rank 1st in Passing Downs S&P+, largely from generating an insane amount of explosion (2nd in Passing Downs IsoPPP). What they lack in efficiency is more than made up for in explosiveness, as evidenced by quarterback Tracy McSorley’s 14 yards per completion average.

So while Barkley is easily Penn State’s best player, McSorley’s ability to convert on passing downs may well be the determining factor in the game. Luckily, Ohio State’s defense has their own specialty on passing downs:


Good luck

It’s a good bet that the Buckeyes’ ‘rushmen’ package of Tyquan Lewis, Jalyn Holmes, Nick Bosa, and Sam Hubbard will see its most significant use so far this season, given the opponent, and the situations it will likely be in.

The Penn State line hasn’t exactly been great in these situations (73rd in Passing Downs sack rate) So it wouldn’t be surprising for McSorley to be under pressure for most of the game. If he is, it could lead to....

Pick six university






Who could ever forget? Always be on the lookout for this when it comes to Penn State.

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FPI projections for Week 8's best games - ESPN
via Google News using key phrase "Buckeyes".


FPI projections for Week 8's best games
ESPN
At first glance, the Week 8 slate of games doesn't look spectacular, but as we know, anything can happen during the grind of conference play. With the help of ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI), we'll break down and project the best games of Week 8.


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Turkey, dumbass.

Buckeyes prep for another tough contest at Penn State - Martins Ferry Times Leader
via Google News using key phrase "Buckeyes".


Buckeyes prep for another tough contest at Penn State
Martins Ferry Times Leader
One week after surviving Wisconsin inside one of the nation's most hostile environments — Camp Randall Stadium — the Buckeyes venture east to try to tame another — Penn State's ”Happy Valley” and Beaver Stadium. ”We have another tough task,” Ohio ...


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Kurelic: Big chance to impress recruits; 5-star visit; RB lean - 247Sports
via Google News using key phrase "Buckeyes".


Kurelic: Big chance to impress recruits; 5-star visit; RB lean
247Sports
The good news for the Buckeyes is that all four of these outstanding prospects are expected to be 100% healthy by the start of fall camp at Ohio State. Other Buckeye commitments have also battled injuries. Franklin (Ga.) Heard County 2018 quarterback ...

and more »

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Ohio State football | Q&A with former Buckeyes running back Jamar Martin - Columbus Dispatch
via Google News using key phrase "Buckeyes".


Ohio State football | Q&A with former Buckeyes running back Jamar Martin
Columbus Dispatch
Dispatch sports reporter/columnist Rob Oller each week finds a former Buckeye for a question-and-answer session. Jamar Martin Age: 36. Years at Ohio State: 1998-2001. Current residence: Bexley Jamar Martin played fullback at Ohio State before it became ...


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Can Ohio State hold off Alabama for top 2017 class? Buckeye Talk Recruiting Podcast - cleveland.com
via Google News using key phrase "Buckeyes".


Can Ohio State hold off Alabama for top 2017 class? Buckeye Talk Recruiting Podcast
cleveland.com
So Meyer should be happy that currently the Buckeyes have six five-star commitments, and could land more. Is that enough for Ohio State to unseat Alabama as the perennial leader when it comes to having the top recruiting class in the country? We ...
The Wake-Up Call: Urban Meyer needs Ohio State to start faster, the defense's secret weapon and moreLandof10.com
Gameday+ | Ohio State spotlight player: LB Jerome BakerColumbus Dispatch

all 12 news articles »

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Penn State's inconsistent but explosive offense could be trouble for Ohio State
Chad Peltier via our friends at Land-Grant Holy Land
Visit their fantastic blog and read the full article (and so much more) here


Saquon Barkley and Trace McSorley break big plays, but they might be too inconsistent to get the upset.

Penn State has faced three opponents ranked better than 46th in the S&P+ this season. They lost two of those games -- to 38th-ranked Pitt and top-ranked Michigan -- and beat 32nd-ranked Minnesota by a field goal. The Nittany Lions have only seen elite competition once this year and they’re 1-1 against teams in the S&P+ top 40.

Avg team talent Turnover margin Net explosiveness (10+) Net explosiveness (20+) IsoPPP
Ohio State 91.43 +8 (5th) +43 +14 1.18 (100th)
Penn State 87.05 -2 (82nd) -10 +10 1.42 (16th)


One of the key factors evaluating this game is just how explosive Penn State's offense is. There's a lot of seemingly-conflicting advanced stats that we'll get in to later, but the big things to take away from this chart is that Penn State is one of the most talented teams Ohio State's faced so far, they fumble a lot, and they're either extremely net explosive or extremely net un-explosive ... depending where you look.

Last week we also discussed a new concept -- team volatility. Team volatility helps describe a team's floor and ceiling and is noted in terms of a team's projected S&P+ point margin over an average FBS team. I'm a big fan of Bill's data here because it captures the fact that a lot of team's may play above or below their average S&P+ rating on a given week -- you can be good or bad and consistent or inconsistent.

Last week we noted that based on the Badgers' and Buckeyes' S&P+ ratings, Ohio State would need to play just above their average performance in order to beat a Wisconsin team playing at their theoretical ceiling. Using the S&P+ percentile performance information, Ohio State had a dismal 46% performance while Wisconsin played their absolute best game of the season at 94%. That lined up perfectly with the volatility information -- we ended up with a tie game in regulation. So what does the volatility information say about Penn State this week?

S&P+ margin Volatility Floor Ceiling
Ohio State 27 (3rd) 23.9 3.1 50.9
Penn State 13.8 (20th) 20.9 (84th) -7.1 34.7


There's a fairly wide overlap between the two teams' floors and ceilings (Ohio State playing a 3.1 floor and Penn State at a 34.7 ceiling), which means that the Buckeyes can absolutely be upset if they play below their average level of play and if Penn State plays (fairly significantly) above their average. That's what makes the Vegas spread for this game so interesting -- it seems extremely high.

It's certainly possible that Ohio State fixes the issues that Wisconsin exposed last week and beats Penn State resoundingly. And it's also possible that the Buckeyes are far less volatile from here on out -- after all, prior to the 46% performance in the Wisconsin game, their percentile performances had all been between 84% and 95%. But an upset, or at least a close game, is certainly not unreasonable.

When Ohio State has the ball

S&P+ Rush S&P+ Rush SR Rush IsoPPP Pass S&P+ Pass SR Pass IsoPPP Avg FP Drives
Ohio State 11 2 59.8%(1) 94 34 43.2%(46) 35 35.3(3) 6.17 (2)
Penn State 17 33 38.5%(44) 114 40 39.4%(54) 16 29.5(72) 4.38(42)

• 
  Just a few notes about the data in the chart here -- all numbers are rankings except for the success rate percentages, the average field position (which is just the actual average starting field position), and the drives number not in parentheses, which is the average points scored per trip inside an opponents' 40 yard line.

• This is not the Penn State defense from a year ago. Last year's defensive front featured Anthony Zettel and Carl Nassib, who combined for 19.5 sacks and 30.5 tackles for loss for the tenth-rated S&P+ pass defense and the ninth overall havoc rating. Now Penn State is 40th against the pass and 27th in havoc rate. This is still a top-20 defense overall according to S&P+, but it's not at the same level as last year's aggressive unit.
• Following, the Penn State defense is good at most things, but not elite in any one area either. Where Wisconsin was average on standard downs but maybe the country's best third-down or passing downs defense, Penn State is ranked somewhere between 30th and 50th in almost every opponent-adjusted defensive category.
• Both the run and pass defenses are good, not great. The run defense struggles with big plays, while the pass defense allows more shorter completions with more efficiency. I don't think this will be the return of the deep passing game for Ohio State, but I wouldn't be surprised if J.T. has his most consistent passing game of the last three weeks. Passing downs shouldn't be as harrowing for Penn State, since they rank 48th in passing downs S&P+ and 36th in third downs S&P+.
• A fast start offensive would be huge for two reasons. First is the less-quantifiable factor of shutting down a hostile environment. Penn State's night game atmosphere can be intimidating, so a quick start should quiet the crowd noise (though after night road trip top-ten matchups with Wisconsin and Oklahoma, Ohio State is certainly experienced here). Second, Penn State's defense is terrible in the first quarter. They start as the 103rd-ranked S&P+ defense in the first quarter before improving to average 23rd in S&P+ for the remainder of the game. That doesn't really match up well for the Ohio State offense, which has been relatively slow-starting and then elite in the middle of games (23rd in first quarter S&P+, 3rd and 16th in second and third quarter S&P+).
• The biggest offensive advantage for Ohio State looks to be how efficiently they should be able to move the ball on the ground. The key stat here is opportunity rate -- the percentage of runs that gain at least five yards. Penn State is allowing over 40% of runs to go for 5+ yards (88th). The Buckeyes are second in the country in opportunity rate with over 51% of their runs going for 5+. Penn State is decent at getting in to the backfield (37th in stuff rate) and OK at adjusted line yards (40th), but terrible at letting successful runs turn in to huge plays (114th in IsoPPP) and allow far too many efficient runs in the first place. So what that equates to is a defensive front that will make a tackle for loss about once every five runs, but frequently allow 5+ runs that can often turn in to huge runs. That's great news for the Weber, Samuel, Barrett trio. Look for Mike Weber to get more involved than he's been in the last two weeks.

When Penn State has the ball

S&P+ Rush S&P+ Rush SR Rush IsoPPP Pass S&P+ Pass SR Pass IsoPPP Avg FP Drives
Ohio State 7 30 37.1%(29) 63 7 33.6%(11) 69 24.7(3) 3.35(12)
Penn State 37 6 43.2%(60) 81 2 37.9%(92) 5 33.9(12) 4.69(69)

• This is where things get interesting. Few disagree that Ohio State should be able to put up points on the Penn State defense, but there's significant disagreement about the state of Penn State's offense. Part of that comes from their apparent growth this season. From 73% and 57% S&P+ performances in the first two weeks to 95% and 93% performances in the last two weeks, the Nittany Lions have shown incredible progress since the beginning of the season (except for the Michigan game, where they were held to ten points and a 58% performance).
• But there's also disagreement because the advanced stats ratings are confusing on first look. They have a top-6 attack both on the ground and through the air according to the opponent-adjusted numbers, but rank 60th, 81st, and 92nd in rushing success rate, rushing explosiveness, and passing success rate respectively. So what's causing the incredible variations between their adjusted and unadjusted ratings outside of their improvement throughout the season? Really, it all has to do with Michigan. Michigan, the top ranked overall team in the S&P+ right now, is also top in defensive S&P+ -- but by a huge margin. Against an average team, Michigan's defense is projected to average allowing less than a single point. The second-ranked defense, Clemson's, is projected to average a little over 11 points (Ohio State's is 15 points, for reference). Penn State didn't have a great game against Michigan, but almost every one of Michigan's opponents gets a little bump in their opponent-adjusted numbers. Their quality performance against Minnesota (18th in defensive S&P+) is another factor helping their opponent-adjusted numbers.
• But that doesn't change the two big things that Penn State's offense has going for it: Saquon Barkley and Trace McSorley's explosiveness. The Penn State offensive line has struggled to consistently open holes for Barkley, ranking 79th in opportunity rate, and they've frequently allowed him to get tackled in the backfield. In fact, Penn State runners have gotten hit in the backfield on 22% of attempts, or 107th in the country. But if Barkley especially does get an opening, he's liable to break a big run. To break his performance down further, he gets five yards on just a third of his carries, but he averages 7.6 highlight yards for each efficient run he does get. Highlight yards are counted after the offensive line's theoretical responsibility ends, so essentially that means that the line often lets him down, but that he makes big plays whenever he gets an opportunity.
• That's kind of the experience for the entire Penn State offense: inconsistent and not very efficient, but incredibly explosive when they get an opportunity. McSorely is the same way: 92nd in passing success rate with a 58.2% completion percentage, but fifth in passing IsoPPP. If you look at their explosive plays, you'll see the same trend: their 113th in 10+ yard plays, but 18th in the number of 40+ yard plays, and 13th in 50+ yard plays. Ohio State's offensive is almost completely the opposite -- they have only one play of 50+ yards this year, but 105 of 10+ yards.
• So the answer to stopping the Penn State offense is pretty simple: be aggressive and create big negative plays -- which shouldn't be too tough, given that they're 40th in adjusted sack rate and 107th in stuff rate while Ohio State is 11th in overall havoc rate and sixth in defensive stuff rate -- and prevent the Penn State offense from creating big plays. That is a little bit of a concern, given Jazz Peavy and Corey Clement's success last week, and would likely be how Penn State either gets the upset or keeps it close -- by creating explosive plays, especially in looks that Ohio State didn't prepare for given the Nittany Lions' bye week last week.
• There's a decent chance that those big plays are incredibly annoying too. Penn State's big plays come far more often than average on passing downs rather than standard downs. So yes, the Buckeyes may get a tackle for loss on a drive and put the Penn State offense behind the chains in terms of standard downs efficiency, but then they could just respond with an out-of-nowhere big strike on passing downs. The Nittany Lions are second in the country in passing downs IsoPPP. They aren't efficient still -- with successful plays on under a third of their passing downs attempts -- but their successful plays are often very explosive on passing downs. That's how Trace McSorley's developed a gunslinger reputation.
• The good news here is that the Buckeye secondary has been good on passing downs -- 17th in passing downs S&P+. And they've got the rushmen package, which should haunt both the Penn State offensive line and of course, Trace McSorley. Penn State is 73rd in passing downs adjusted sack rate.
• Finally, elite field position and finishing drives have been two of the Buckeyes' key reasons for defensive success this season -- they rank between 2nd and 12th in both offensive and defensive field position and scoring opportunities. Penn State is solid in offensive starting field position, but struggle scoring touchdowns in the red zone, averaging 4.7 points per scoring opportunity (69th). Ohio State allows an average of 3.35 points per scoring opportunity (12th). Keeping Penn State out of the end zone on big plays will be critical.

The 4 most important stats

• Offensive rushing opportunity rate. Ohio State's offense should be able to run the ball efficiently, with a high number of 5+ yard runs, and with a decent number of those efficient runs that gain much more.
• Defensive havoc rate/stuff rate. The defense has a clear advantage in creating negative plays, especially on the ground. They'll need to keep the Penn State offense off their game through negative plays. It's especially important to take advantage of passing downs, where Penn State allows a high percentage of sacks. The Rushmen have to get to their target.
• Defensive rushing and passing IsoPPP. The Nittany Lions offense has been inefficient and inconsistent, but has hit big plays almost every time they get an opportunity. And they've been getting more successful as the season has gone on. The Buckeye defense clamped down in the second half against Wisconsin, but this might be the critical difference between a blowout Ohio State win and a close game like last week.
• Defensive finishing drives. The Buckeyes have an apparent advantage in keeping the Nittany Lions out of the end zone on scoring opportunities. They'll have to prevent explosive plays from becoming six points.

Picks


The team volatility numbers suggest that this is a top 5 lock for Penn State to cover the spread, but Ohio State to win.

S&P+: Ohio State 33, Penn State 21. 73.2% win probability

F/+: Ohio State by 10.7

My pick: Ohio State 42, Penn State 21.

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Ohio State vs. Penn State game picks: Will the Buckeyes be pushed on the road again? - cleveland.com
via Google News using key phrase "Buckeyes".


Ohio State vs. Penn State game picks: Will the Buckeyes be pushed on the road again?
cleveland.com
Ohio State 31, Penn State 23: Off a tough overtime road win that threw off their practice schedule this week, the Buckeyes are getting a taste of what a more competitive Big Ten is like. If the Penn State defense was a little healthier and lot stingier ...
Bob Hunter commentary | Rumblings: Buckeyes get to woo recruits at Happy ValleyColumbus Dispatch
Buckeyes' Barrett can add to his Heisman resume at Penn St.Boston Herald
What TV channel, time is Ohio State Buckeyes vs. Penn State Nittany Lions (10-22-16), how to watch live stream onlineOregonLive.com
Tribune-Review -Victory Bell Rings -Sports Chat Place (blog)
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Ohio State on top for five-star OT Jackson Carman?
Bret Favachio via our friends at Land-Grant Holy Land
Visit their fantastic blog and read the full article (and so much more) here


Keeping the Ohio talent within the border would be huge for Meyer, Buckeyes in 2018.

Bucks in front for Carman?


When it comes to next year’s recruiting cycle for Ohio State and Head Coach Urban Meyer, perhaps the biggest target overall comes in the form of 2018 offensive tackle Jackson Carman from Fairfield High School in Fairfield, Ohio.

Carman is currently pegged as the 17th best prospect in the 2018 class. He also finds himself third at his position of offensive tackle. To no surprise, he's graded as the top player in the state of Ohio and the Buckeyes are fully aware of how special the 6-foot-6, 290-pounder is to the Buckeye State. Additionally, it appears that OSU’s pursuit has paid big dividends on where they stand with the five-star prospect.

In a piece profiling Carman, Steve Wiltfong of 247Sports.com describes Ohio State as "the program to beat" for the instate prospect. Carman went on to describe his relationship with some members of the OSU coaching staff, who have clearly done an outstanding job recruiting the standout offensive tackle:


Wiltfong did note that Carman has not indicated a time frame for his ultimate decision on where he will wind up, but Ohio State definitely has to feel good about where they stand. In the meantime, Carman will head to Tuscaloosa this weekend to visit Alabama.

Two OSU targets set B1G visits


Switching gears to the class Ohio State is currently focused on, 2017 wide receiver Jaylen Harris (Cleveland / Cleveland Heights) is a prospect that still has a chance to be in the class for the Buckeyes. That’s despite having commitments from both '17 WRs Trevon Grimes and Tyjon Lindsey. From the looks of it, Ohio State is considering taking a third pass-catcher in the class even with a lack of much more room. Harris might be a guy that ultimately ends up in Columbus, but we will see if space keeps him out. For now, Harris is rightfully keeping all stones unturned as he will head to Penn State this weekend for an official visit — his first.

Another big Ohio State target — '17 DT Jay Tufele from Bingham (UT) — will also be elsewhere this weekend. The 6-foot-3, 297-pounder will check out arch rival Michigan. We'll see if the trip to Ann Arbor makes any change in the recruitment of the high four-star talent. For now, Ohio State and Oregon are the lone programs to receive any predictions on the 247Sports Crystal Ball.

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Ohio State football | Penn State's Saquon Barkley a big hurdle - Columbus Dispatch
via Google News using key phrase "Buckeyes".


Ohio State football | Penn State's Saquon Barkley a big hurdle
Columbus Dispatch
Barkley's coming-out party as a freshman was when he ran for 194 yards on 26 carries against the Buckeyes in what otherwise was a 38-10 loss by the Nittany Lions. His latest standout performance came two weeks ago in a 202-yard, 31-carry performance in ...
Penn State's emerging offense looks to hold ground against No. 2 BuckeyesTribune-Review
What TV channel, time is Ohio State Buckeyes vs. Penn State Nittany Lions (10-22-16), how to watch live stream onlineOregonLive.com
'Ohio State Buckeyes at Penn State Nittany Lions - 10/22/16 College Football Pick, Odds, and Prediction'Sports Chat Place (blog)

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What TV channel, time is Ohio State Buckeyes vs. Penn State Nittany Lions (10-22-16), how to watch live stream online - OregonLive.com
via Google News using key phrase "Buckeyes".


What TV channel, time is Ohio State Buckeyes vs. Penn State Nittany Lions (10-22-16), how to watch live stream online
OregonLive.com
Ohio State quarterback J.T. Barrett attempts to pass the ball to a receiver as the second-ranked Buckeyes defeated the 8th-ranked Wisconsin Badgers 30-23 in overtime at Camp Randall Stadium in Madison, WI. (Dan Sanger/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images).
Penn State's emerging offense looks to hold ground against No. 2 BuckeyesTribune-Review
'Ohio State Buckeyes at Penn State Nittany Lions - 10/22/16 College Football Pick, Odds, and Prediction'Sports Chat Place (blog)

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Bob Hunter commentary | Rumblings: Buckeyes get to woo recruits at Happy Valley - Columbus Dispatch
via Google News using key phrase "Buckeyes".


Bob Hunter commentary | Rumblings: Buckeyes get to woo recruits at Happy Valley
Columbus Dispatch
When the Ohio State football team played at Oklahoma five weeks ago, the Buckeyes got not only a rousing victory but an opportunity to impress several elite prospects who were visiting Oklahoma. Ohio State's game at Penn State on Saturday night offers ...
Ohio State basketball: Thoughts and notes from Buckeyes preseason practicecleveland.com

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Are Buckeyes getting enough credit for win over Badgers? - Mansfield News Journal
via Google News using key phrase "Buckeyes".


Are Buckeyes getting enough credit for win over Badgers?
Mansfield News Journal
OSU struggled, but shouldn't be penalized for beating a Top 10 team on the road.
Highlights from Urban Meyer's radio show 10/20 | Buckeye Xtra SportsColumbus Dispatch (blog)

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Penn State's emerging offense looks to hold ground against No. 2 Buckeyes - Tribune-Review
via Google News using key phrase "Buckeyes".


Penn State's emerging offense looks to hold ground against No. 2 Buckeyes
Tribune-Review
He rushed for 194 yards in last year's game against the Buckeyes in Columbus. Buckeyes coach Urban Meyer went so far as to call Barkley a “first-rounder tailback” at his Monday news conference. McSorley also ranks third in the Big Ten with 239.3 ...

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Ohio State football: Should you be nervous about the Buckeyes' run defense vs. Penn State? - cleveland.com
via Google News using key phrase "Buckeyes".


Ohio State football: Should you be nervous about the Buckeyes' run defense vs. Penn State?
cleveland.com
Meyer's point was Wisconsin's defense was as good as he thought it would be based on the teams it had held in check coming into last Saturday. So let's apply that logic to the Buckeyes' defense. Ohio State came into that game against Wisconsin ranked No.
Ohio State football | Buckeyes are golden in the red zone this seasonColumbus Dispatch
Penn State-Ohio State game predictions: Buckeyes a consensus winner, but can the Lions cover the 20-point spread?PennLive.com
Buckeyes' Barrett can add to his Heisman resume at Penn St. (Oct 20, 2016)FOXSports.com
UPI.com -OSU - The Lantern -Reading Eagle
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Ohio State's 'rushmen' package throwing sack parties - ESPN (blog)
via Google News using key phrase "Buckeyes".


Ohio State's 'rushmen' package throwing sack parties
ESPN (blog)
But befitting their mantra of “R2X” -- rush to X, with X being the quarterback -- all four of the Buckeyes were in position to make the play. And that's exactly how Ohio State draws it up when they send out Lewis and Sam Hubbard on the edge and plug in ...


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Ohio State’s hype video for the Penn State game is here and it’s amazing
Harry Lyles Jr. via our friends at Land-Grant Holy Land
Visit their fantastic blog and read the full article (and so much more) here


Ready for Saturday? You will be after this.


The Ohio State Buckeyes are still the No. 2 team in the country after a big win on the road in Madison against Wisconsin last week. The defense showed out, and J.T. Barrett came up with a huge fourth quarter to help lead the Bucks to a victory.

Saturday they’ll be facing the 4-2 Penn State Nittany Lions in Happy Valley. The two teams have played some interesting games in the past decade, and hopefully the Buckeyes are able to tally yet another win in this Big Ten rivalry.

Ohio State’s video team has prepared yet another awesome trailer for the game, and you’ve got more time than ever to prepare for this one, with the game kicking off at 8 p.m. ET.

Go Bucks.

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Ohio State’s Rushmen are creating havoc for opposing offenses
Brett Ludwiczak via our friends at Land-Grant Holy Land
Visit their fantastic blog and read the full article (and so much more) here


On obvious passing downs, the Buckeyes bring the heat.

“It’s a party. You know, party to the quarterback. Whoever gets there first, gets there first. And then we celebrate when we get there.”

Ohio State defensive lineman Jalyn Holmes via Austin Ward, ESPN.com


Wisconsin fans probably thought it was rude for Ohio State’s defensive line to have a party at Camp Randall Stadium on Saturday night, but that’s just what the “Rushmen” did at the end of the game. The Buckeyes secured a hard-fought overtime victory against the Badgers with a sack of Alex Hornibrook on the final play of the game. Tyquan Lewis was credited with the game-winning sack, but there was a couple other “Rushmen” in the vicinity, bearing down on Hornibrook.

On obvious passing downs, Lewis and Sam Hubbard line up on the end of the defensive line, while Holmes and Nick Bosa are utilized on the inside of the line. The combination of speed and power that the “Rushmen” package provides makes it hard for the offensive to figure out who to stop. Even if the defensive line isn’t able to get to the quarterback, they at least provide enough pressure that gives the nickel package a chance to make a big play. While the package doesn’t allow for a single player to stand out, it is so successful because it allows the group to stand out collectively. The Wisconsin game was a perfect example of that, as all four of the linemen feature in the “Rushmen” package registered a sack. The rest of Ohio State’s opponents this year know they have to find a way to slow down the “Rushmen” package if they want to have a shot at beating the Buckeyes, but it certainly is easier said than done.


With being ranked second in the country at the midway part of the season, it should come as no surprise that Ohio State players have been garnering plenty of accolades. Bruce Feldman of FOX Sports released his midseason All-American team and three Buckeyes were included on the list. Offensive linemen Pat Elflein and Billy Price, as well as defensive back Malik Hooker have all had a tremendous start to the season and were recognized for their play through Ohio State’s first six games. Elflein and Price certainly have earned the honors with Ohio State’s offense averaging over 500 yards of offense per game, with 300 of those yards per game coming from rushing the football.

In his first season starting for Ohio State, Hooker has already pulled down four interceptions. Not only has Hooker been great at defending the pass, but he has been a sure tackler, registering 29 tackles during through six games. During the second half of the Wisconsin game, Hooker laid a number of hard hits, which helped to spark the Ohio State defense.

The three players the Buckeyes placed on the list were the most of any team. Michigan and Texas A&M both played two players on Feldman’s list. The Wolverines had defensive back Jourdan Lewis selected, as well as Jabrill Peppers filling the all-purpose spot. The only other player from a Big Ten school recognized was Wisconsin offensive lineman Ryan Ramczyk.

“I like aggressive guys. Everything about our program is somewhat aggressive. I think there’s a difference between non-intelligent and over-aggressive, and we have to watch that. We have a culture mentality around here that we’re going to go after it and be very aggressive.”

Ohio State head coach Urban Meyer via Ari Wasserman, Cleveland.com


Ohio State fans must have been thinking that they would be able to breathe a little easier on punt returns this year now that Jalin Marshall wasn’t back there returning punts. Wrong. Against Wisconsin, Dontre Wilson muffed a punt in the third quarter, but luckily Ohio State didn’t lose the football. Both Wilson and Meyer downplayed just how serious the muffed punt was, but had Ohio State lost the football they might not be undefeated right now.

The fact is that Meyer wants his player to be aggressive, but he also wants his players to be smart about when they are aggressive. The muffed punt wasn’t the only return in which Wilson struck fear in the heart of Buckeye fans, as there were a couple others where fans held their breath a little longer than normal. Wilson said he had the football the whole time on the punt it looked like he had muffed, and for a second he could see Meyer with his head down over on the sidelines. After all nervousness that Marshall, and now Wilson, have brought to the punt returns, Ohio State might be due a couple of return touchdowns the rest of the year.

“When we’ve needed to punch it in, we have. We’ve had to kick a few field goals down there ... but I think our efficiency down there is pretty good.”

Ohio State offensive coordinator Ed Warinner via Bill Rabinowitz, The Columbus Dispatch


It has been pretty difficult for opponents to stop Ohio State anywhere on the field this year, but things get especially tough for the opposition when the Buckeyes get into the red zone. On 35 possessions inside the opponents’ 20-yard line this year, Ohio State has scored a touchdown on 24 of those possessions. Urban Meyer has three reasons as to why Ohio State has been successful this year when they get inside the red zone. Good players, the scheme, and the amount of time Ohio State spends practicing their red zone offense are all reasons why the Buckeyes are scoring touchdowns at a 68.6% clip inside the 20-yard line.

It’s not just Ohio State’s offense that has been strong in the red zone, but the Buckeye defense has been tough for opponents to crack when they get inside the 20-yard line. Not only has practicing red zone situations helped the offense, but it also has been a huge benefit for the Buckeye defense. The play of the defense when Oklahoma made it inside the red zone early in last month’s game set the tone for Ohio State, in a game they had little trouble with the Sooners in. Out of 16 trips inside Ohio State’ red zone, opponents have failed to score a touchdown 12 times, which is the best rate in the country. If both the offense and defense continue their tremendous red zone play, the rest of the country is going to be in trouble.

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Penn State football might actually be good
Matt Brown via our friends at Land-Grant Holy Land
Visit their fantastic blog and read the full article (and so much more) here


Don’t take this game lightly.

Friends, I have a potentially controversial opinion that I’d like to get off my chest. I figured this would be a safe enough place to do it.

I think Penn State football is kinda good. Like, this year. Right now.

The opinion is buttressed somewhat by the advanced stats, at least. Penn State sits 18th right now in S&P+, ahead of undefeated West Virginia, Nebraska, Boise State and Western Michigan. Thanks to an explosive running game paced by Saquon Barkley, and a banged up defense that has done just enough to keep them in most games, S&P+ likes them to finish the season strong as well. Penn State is given a 80% chance of winning at least eight games. Going 8-4 seems pretty good! 9-3, I’m told, is even better.

Of course, that’s just what the spreadsheet says. But maybe the tape tells you a different story. After all, Penn State has played just one game against a very strong team so far, against Michigan, and they were summarily dismissed, 49-10, in a game that probably wasn’t even that close. Their defense was physically pummeled in an early season 42-39 loss at Pitt, and their biggest wins this year were over decidedly average Temple and Maryland squads.

There might not be a resume-based argument for the concept that Penn State is good, which may be why they haven’t garnered a single AP Poll vote. Troy has.

The #narrative has not been kind to Penn State, and especially to head coach James Franklin. After consecutive seasons with pedestrian results, he’s been tagged with the “recruiter” label, with the pejorative insinuation that he isn’t great at anything else.

And it’s true, Franklin’s struggles have been well documented, from his questionable clock-management, to the public feud and failure to develop Christian Hackenberg, to Penn State’s struggles against the elite programs of the Big Ten, like the Michigans, and Ohio State. He’s not going to get the benefit of the doubt.

I’m not here to write a stirring defense of James Franklin, playcaller, or James Franklin, clock manager. I don’t think all of those critiques are without merit.

But that doesn’t mean that this Penn State team isn’t good.

The biggest potential concern for Ohio State? Barkley, who jumped onto the national stage last year after absolutely carving up an experienced Ohio State defense. Now, a substantially less-experienced squad faces a running back averaging nearly 100 yards a game (97.0), while working with a dramatically less talented and successful offensive line, compared to programs like Ohio State, and with defenses scheming specifically to slow him down.

Barkley is fast, deceptively strong, and explosive in the open field. After a few weeks of more pedestrian performances, he dropped 202 yards rushing on Maryland. After a bye week, and against an Ohio State defense that may be emotionally and physically tired from battling Wisconsin, there’s plenty of reason to think Barkley may be successful again.

Paired with Trace McSorley at quarterback, and skill position talent far above nearly everybody else in the Big Ten, Penn State’s offense is clearly dangerous, even if it hasn’t been very efficient. And after Ohio State, there may not be another team on Penn State’s schedule that can attack them effectively.

Penn State’s defense was projected to take a step back after losing defensive coordinator Bob Shoop and a slew of talented defensive linemen, and injuries, especially at linebacker, have taken a substantial toll. But even so, the unit has been reasonably effective, especially as the game goes along (Penn State’s defense is 12th in the country in fourth quarter S&P+).

The math, and the vision test, doesn’t suggest that Penn State’s defense will necessarily be able to win the game for the Nittany Lions, but it could certainly keep them in the game.

Earlier this season, especially after the emphatic defeat by Michigan, the college football world was ready to write off Franklin, and Penn State. The outcry was loud enough that Penn State AD Sandy Barbour even had to give Franklin the proverbial vote of confidence.

But I don’t think a change is very likely, and honestly, wouldn’t even be justified this season. Penn State is still rebuilding a roster ravaged by years of depth problems thanks to sanctions, (and a few recruiting misfires). They’re still trying to build that depth now.

But they’ve already built a new offense that’s been successful on standard downs. They probably have the best running back in the Big Ten right now, and one of the best receiving corps. They have some sneaky good players in their secondary.

And it’s going to be another wild, crazy White Out, at night, on the road. Weird things happen in Happy Valley at night.

Ohio State might not get very much credit for beating Penn State this weekend. The Nittany Lions are probably going to remain outside of the national limelight for the rest of this season, unless they totally fall apart.

But I don’t think they will. Maybe I’m wrong, but I still think this team is kinda good right now. And they might finish the season even better.

If Ohio State’s going to come away with their second huge road win in a row, they’ll need to play an excellent game. I think this one will be a war.

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Buckeyes' Barrett can add to his Heisman resume at Penn St. - WHIO
via Google News using key phrase "Buckeyes".


Buckeyes' Barrett can add to his Heisman resume at Penn St.
WHIO
The Buckeyes go to Happy Valley having won a program-record 20 consecutive true road games, the longest streak in the nation and the most since the Miami Hurricanes won 20 in a row between 1984-88. Ohio State QB J.T. Barrett is coming off a splendid ...

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