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Heisman Rankings Week 6

View attachment 16785

Forget about whether last game knocked him out of the race. Why was he even in the race? 100 yards per game rushing, 55-60 per game receiving. Only 3 games has he gotten to 100. I think someone posted something that shows he loses yards on a pretty high percentage of runs. He's shown a lot that he can't be the guy that the team relies on to sustain drives. If you can't rely on a guy, he probably shouldn't be winning the Heisman.
Iowa. And that he started out both Michigan and Ohio State with huge plays for TDs.
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Google BM5: QB recruiting calls audible | CFP takes | OSU-Iowa thoughts - 247Sports

BM5: QB recruiting calls audible | CFP takes | OSU-Iowa thoughts - 247Sports
via Google News using key phrase "Buckeyes".


BM5: QB recruiting calls audible | CFP takes | OSU-Iowa thoughts
247Sports
If the Buckeyes win out, will they make the College Football Playoff? * Why J.K. Dobbins didn't play more last week against Penn State. * Predictions for the Buckeyes' game at Iowa tomorrow. All that and more on a 15-minute edition of the Friday ...

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LGHL Ohio State vs. Iowa 2017: Game preview, how to watch, and 6 things to know

Ohio State vs. Iowa 2017: Game preview, how to watch, and 6 things to know
Chuck McKeever
via our friends at Land-Grant Holy Land
Visit their fantastic blog and read the full article (and so much more) here


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The Buckeyes head to Iowa City to take on the Hawkeyes.

There's a kind of magic to America's heartland, and in our popular imagination, perhaps no place typifies this like Iowa.

"The children must be crying," Jack Kerouac once wrote of Iowa, "in the land where they let the children cry, and tonight the stars'll be out." In Iowa are cornfields and endlessly hitchhikeable roads; in Iowa James Earl Jones convinced Kevin Costner to build his field so that people might be able to chase the ever-fleeting past for just a little while longer.

The Ohio State Buckeyes head to Iowa this week not to chase the past, but to take one more step toward the future: a bid to the College Football Playoff. It's been a bumpy road, to be sure, but Urban Meyer's squad has reeled off six consecutive wins, including a dramatic and stunning victory against No. 2 Penn State last weekend. They face a much less sexy test this Saturday when they face off against an Iowa team whose specialty seems to be dragging opponents down into the mud to die. (That the Hawkeyes occasionally suffocate first is of little concern to them.)

Kirk Ferentz's team is coming off of a tight 17-10 victory over Minnesota, a throwback Big Ten game if ever there were one. Most times it feels like the Hawkeyes are still playing the football that was played decades ago, with a mostly-uninspired offense playing second fiddle to a beefy defense that knows how to hurt.

But then they do things like throwing the ball to running back Akrum Wadley, who we might hype up as a great H-back were he to play in Urban Meyer's offense. Wadley's running average has been disappointing this season, given his potential, but his receiving stats—19 catches, 14.1 yards per catch, three TDs—are eye-popping for a guy who's nominally supposed to be running between the tackles.

Whatever the Hawkeyes are—a chimera of parts from football's past, present, and future—they pose an interesting matchup for the high-flying Buckeyes.

Ohio State’s biggest advantages


Firing on (most) cylinders. The Buckeyes still have plenty of kinks to work out. Special teams has been a roller coaster, penalties have been plentiful, and the play-calling has been conservative at some of the worst times imaginable.

(*Stephen A. Smith voice*) BUT. Just about everything else is humming for Ohio State. J.T. Barrett is playing like he’s on a mission to destroy the world. The defensive line seems to decide weekly that a different member will eat the most in that particular game. The thunder-and-lightning combo of Mike Weber and J.K. Dobbins is a terrifying one when it’s balanced well by the coaches. The list goes on.

Outside looking in. The first College Football Playoff rankings came out this week, and Ohio State found themselves sitting at No. 6 on the list, just behind the team that handed them their only defeat of the season, Oklahoma. That makes for pretty good incentive to keep pounding opponents into the ground. An undefeated finish to the season with a win over Wisconsin in the B1G title game should be enough to get the Buckeyes into their third playoff in four years, but beating the tar out of everyone along the way would certainly bolster their résumé.

The Drago factor. Like Rocky's most blatantly propaganda-driven foe, the Buckeyes are both freakishly athletic and ruthlessly efficient. Drago literally killed an opponent in the ring, while Ohio State has done it figuratively: in the contests between the Oklahoma loss and the Penn State win, the Buckeyes scored 266 points while allowing just 56.

They've managed that, in part, by operating the second-most efficient offense in all of college football. The cold, steady drubbings they've dished out to opponents this season have been clinical in their precision. The Buckeyes have a 53.8% success rate on offensive plays, are the No. 1 offense in the country in the opportunity rate category (how often five yards are gained when there are five yards available, the metric that puts the feather in the o-line's cap), and are the second-best in college football at avoiding stuffs at or behind the line of scrimmage. If you're into advanced stats or just ruthless dismantling of opponents, you're probably fanning yourself looking at these numbers.


Iowa’s biggest advantages


The look-ahead trap and the hangover. Two tales as old as time in college football: a powerhouse team leaves it all on the field in dramatic fashion against a talented rival and then sleepwalks through their next game against an inferior opponent; a talented team with ranked opponents and rivals looming on the schedule fails to adequately prepare for the mediocre team they play beforehand. Both scenarios are in play here. The Buckeyes’ fourth quarter against Penn State last weekend took years off of the lives of everyone watching, so what it did to the guys who were actually playing is probably worse. And with hated opponents on the menu in two of the next three contests—Michigan State and Michigan—you could understand everyone involved feeling as though Iowa isn’t a whole lot to worry about. Add in the Buckeyes being the putative favorites to head to the B1G title game against No. 9 Wisconsin and you’ve got a whole lot of potential for looking ahead.

This can’t win the game by itself for the Hawkeyes. Even a sleepwalking Buckeye team has enough juice on both sides of the ball to win an ugly game. But if Iowa can get on the board early and hang close, anything could happen.

Josey Jewell is back. If you haven’t heard of Josey Jewell, you’re not paying close enough attention. Iowa’s star middle linebacker is a Butkus Award finalist who puts up eye-popping numbers as the Hawkeyes’ defensive leader. (Want proof? He has 22 more tackles than the next-highest player on his team.)

Jewell suffered a shoulder injury in Iowa’s win over Illinois a few weeks ago, one which was serious enough to sideline him for the Northwestern game. They ended up losing that one to the Wildcats by a touchdown. He returned against Minnesota last weekend, and his presence made all the difference in another game decided by just a touchdown—his 11 total tackles and two QB hurries led the team in a game short on scoring opportunities.

He’ll have his hands full against the Buckeyes, but playing against Jewell is hardly a prize for them, either. He’s an excellent run stuffer, athletic in pass coverage, and an expert at haranguing QBs.

Dampening the fuse. A few days ago, I broke down one of Iowa’s finest defensive attributes: stifling opposing teams’ explosive play opportunities. Explosive plays (defined more fully here) are a measure of yards gained from each spot on the field, which has a corresponding point value assigned to it. In other words: how often did you execute successful plays, and when you did, just how far downfield did you get?

The stingy Iowa defense isn’t super efficient—teams can and have marched on them—but they also don’t give up a lot of home run plays. Granted, outside of Saquon Barkley, they’ve yet to face a who’s who of college football’s big play guys, but still: even with Barkley in Penn State’s backfield, Iowa only allowed 21 points to the Nittany Lions. That’s mighty impressive.

Summary


F+ Projection: Ohio State 34, Iowa 18

Win probability: Ohio State 82%

How to watch, stream, listen to Iowa v. Ohio State:


Game time: Saturday, Nov. 4, 3:30 p.m. ET

TV: ESPN

Streaming: WatchESPN

Radio: 97.1 WBNS-FM

Know your enemy: Black Heart Gold Pants

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Google Ohio State recruiting: The latest on Buckeyes' top-ranked recruiting class - Landof10.com

Ohio State recruiting: The latest on Buckeyes' top-ranked recruiting class - Landof10.com
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Ohio State recruiting: The latest on Buckeyes' top-ranked recruiting class
Landof10.com
The Buckeyes had their final huge recruiting weekend of the year when they hosted Penn State and now Ohio State waits for some good news to come rolling in. Here's where things stand with the Buckeyes and their 2018 recruiting class as of Friday, Nov. 3.
Jarren Williams offered by Ohio State BuckeyesA Sea of Blue
Kurelic: Williams, Jones and QB situation; Texas visitor; more247Sports
Ohio State just offered another 2018 QB. What does that mean ...Land-Grant Holy Land
Eleven Warriors
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Google Ohio State football: Urban Meyer wants more blackouts, breaking down the Buckeyes' QB...

Ohio State football: Urban Meyer wants more blackouts, breaking down the Buckeyes' QB recruiting - Landof10.com
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Ohio State football: Urban Meyer wants more blackouts, breaking down the Buckeyes' QB recruiting
Landof10.com
Ohio State football is the No. 1 topic in Wake Up Sloopy every day — but we cover news, notes and analysis from across Buckeyes sports. Join us each morning to get caught up on everything you missed in the world of Ohio State football, recruiting, ...
Buckeyes still in wide receiver marketToledo Blade
Ohio State Buckeyes vs. Iowa Hawkeyes: Odds, College Football Betting PickBleacher Report
Ohio State football: Meyer, Buckeyes don't celebrate Penn State win for longThe Columbus Dispatch
247Sports
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Google Ohio State Buckeyes to handle Iowa in trap game -- Bill Livingston (photos) - cleveland.com

Ohio State Buckeyes to handle Iowa in trap game -- Bill Livingston (photos) - cleveland.com
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Ohio State Buckeyes to handle Iowa in trap game -- Bill Livingston (photos)
cleveland.com
Ohio State faces a classic trap game Saturday afternoon when the Buckeyes play Iowa at Nile Kinnick Stadium, one week after leaping back into the College Football Playoff squabble with a stunning one-point comeback victory over Penn State after ...
On the Beat: Ohio State believes it will avoid a letdown against IowaLandof10.com
2-Minute Drill: Ohio State Buckeyes at Iowa HawkeyesThe Gazette: Eastern Iowa Breaking News and Headlines
Buckeyes still in wide receiver marketToledo Blade
247Sports -AthlonSports.com -Black Heart Gold Pants
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LGHL Ohio State's 2018 QB situation just got really interesting

Ohio State's 2018 QB situation just got really interesting
Caleb Houser
via our friends at Land-Grant Holy Land
Visit their fantastic blog and read the full article (and so much more) here


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The Buckeyes have offered a new 2018 QB. Is a shakeup coming?

The Buckeyes head to Iowa this weekend to take on the Hawkeyes in another 3:30 pm match-up. With last week's game surely still fresh in the mind of Buckeye fans after easily one of the greatest comebacks in Ohio State football history, it’s not hard to want to relive that moment time and time again. It's in the past though, and the Buckeyes need to move on and realize with Iowa along with everyone else’s best shot, they just need to take care of business and get to Indianapolis. Easier said than done, but Urban Meyer and his staff should have this squad ready for what’s taking place on the field. In the ever-changing recruiting world though, Meyer and staff look to be just as ready for everyone’s best shot at their 2018 top ranked class.

And here we go. Again...


Let’s just cut to the chase and address the elephant in the room. There’s a serious roller-coaster of emotions going on with the 2018 quarterback recruiting saga for the Buckeyes. With Emory Jones being the lone 2018 QB commit for Ohio State since the summer of 2016, it was thought to be all but sealed that Jones would be in Columbus come next fall and be the signal caller of the class. But with so much that has happened in the past year, you can thank Alabama as the reason for so many changes and at the very least possibilities of change.

Since his pledge to Ohio State, Jones has thought to have been the guy. It was Ohio State’s true top priority and they added him to the fold relatively early considering recruiting timelines. However, with multiple visits to Alabama in the last year, It’s been rumored time and time again that Jones and his pledge were wavering and a possible “flip” to the Crimson Tide could be coming. Jones did visit for the Penn State game last week and took to social media to say he was coming "home,” but ever since his departure, things have continued to progress on the rumor mill and Alabama is still the main source of it. There’s even a thought that Jones could in fact visit again Alabama again this weekend. If so, that should be the writing on the wall, you’d think.

Fast forward a little bit. Yesterday, Ohio State offered a quarterback they have been in constant communication with due to the unrest with Jones and there’s a new sense of feeling that Jarren Williams, another Georgia quarterback, could be the next in line if Jones were to in fact “flip” his commitment. Williams, the nation’s seventh-best dual-threat quarterback, is no new name to Buckeye fans. Williams has long been thought to be the first choice at replacing Jones, and yesterday may have been a serious step in that direction. While he is still currently committed to the Kentucky Wildcats, signs are really starting to point to more shake-up in the QB recruitment for these parties involved.


#OhioState has offered Top247 2018 QB Jarren Williams: https://t.co/hYeq4jdRd7 @Bill_Kurelic @alexgleitman #Buckeyes

— Steve Wiltfong (@SWiltfong247) November 2, 2017

There’s a couple ways to skin this cat, but it’s easy to see that there’s serious potential for Jones to be gone from this 2018 class and Ohio State’s staff sees this as a real possibility. Knowing this could be the case, they have taken the necessary steps to offer their other priority in Jarren so they are not left on the outside looking in come signing day 2018. It is still possible that Jones ends up a Buckeye, but if he’s looking around more than ever, the Buckeyes have to be prepared and they have done so by making it official that Jarren Williams has an offer. We shall see where this all ends, but you can guarantee this topic isn’t even close to being over.

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Google Listen: Helwagen on PSU win, Barrett, CFB Playoff rankings - 247Sports

Listen: Helwagen on PSU win, Barrett, CFB Playoff rankings - 247Sports
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Listen: Helwagen on PSU win, Barrett, CFB Playoff rankings
247Sports
Edit; Slot to 247Sports Home; Slot to Ohio State Buckeyes Newsletter; Slot to Ohio State Links. SoundCloud cookie policyCookie policy. Player controls. Share. whbcmix · STEVE HELWAGEN-Ohio State Buckeyes beat writer at Bucknuts.com. Bucknuts.com's ...


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Google Jeff Ruby: Columbus steakhouse will blow away Ohio State Buckeyes recruits - Cincinnati.com

Jeff Ruby: Columbus steakhouse will blow away Ohio State Buckeyes recruits - Cincinnati.com
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Jeff Ruby: Columbus steakhouse will blow away Ohio State Buckeyes recruits
Cincinnati.com
Restaurateur Jeff Ruby is excited to bring a restaurant to Columbus. Kerry Coombs, Ohio State's cornerbacks coach and special teams coordinator and a former UC Bearcats coach who also led Colerain High School to a Division I state title in 2004 and 10 ...


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Google Ohio State recruiting: Buckeyes offer Jarren Williams, so what comes next? - Landof10.com

Ohio State recruiting: Buckeyes offer Jarren Williams, so what comes next? - Landof10.com
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Ohio State recruiting: Buckeyes offer Jarren Williams, so what comes next?
Landof10.com
Recruiting never stops, and if you take a day off, you fall behind. Join us every night for a daily recap of Ohio State recruiting news, insight on what's happening behind the scenes and a glimpse at what's coming next.
Jarren Williams offered by Ohio State BuckeyesA Sea of Blue
Ohio State just offered another 2018 QB. What does that mean?Land-Grant Holy Land
Kurelic: Williams, Jones and QB situation; Texas visitor; more247Sports
Eleven Warriors
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LGHL Ohio State defensive end Nick Bosa is hoping more sacks are in his future

Ohio State defensive end Nick Bosa is hoping more sacks are in his future
Brett Ludwiczak
via our friends at Land-Grant Holy Land
Visit their fantastic blog and read the full article (and so much more) here


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The sophomore has put plenty of pressure on opposing quarterbacks, but has just four sacks this season.

“I think I’ve been winning a lot. There’s always room for improvement. I just need to finish plays more, and then I’ll get the recognition I think I deserve. I think I’m playing well. I also think the defense is playing very well.”

-Ohio State defensive end Nick Bosa via Bill Rabinowitz, The Columbus Dispatch


Even though his sack total might not exactly show it, Nick Bosa has been a beast on the field for Ohio State this year. The sophomore may have only four sacks on the season, but he is constantly putting pressure on opposing quarterbacks. Last week against Penn State, Bosa registered nine quarterback pressures according to Pro Football Focus.

In the end all that matters is wins for Ohio State, but Bosa has a little family pride to deal with, as he tries to match what his older brother Joey did at Ohio State. In three years at Ohio State, the older Bosa registered 26 sacks. Nick isn’t likely to match that number, but there are a couple of reasons for that. The younger Bosa not only was recovering from a knee injury when he got to Ohio State, but there also is a lot more depth on the defensive line than when his older brother was in Columbus.

Even though he is just a sophomore, opposing teams are making sure they are accounting for Bosa. Even with the extra attention he is getting, Bosa is still finding his way into the opposing backfields to put pressure on quarterbacks, and that is why he very well could be named an All-American at the end of the year. If Ohio State is able to make it back to the College Football Playoff, the pressure Bosa places on opposing defenses will be a big reason why.

“I think we’re fortunate to have two backs that are good enough to start and be elite players. The freshman has had a great year. Mike is now healthy. If nothing else we’re creating a healthy environment of a competitive team.”

-Ohio State offensive coordinator Kevin Wilson via Bill Landis, Northeast Ohio Media Group


When things are going bad for Ohio State, it seems like the first area of blame is why they didn’t get the ball to a running back enough. In 2015 in the loss to Michigan State, Ezekiel Elliott didn’t get enough carries. Last year in the loss to Penn State, Curtis Samuel was ignored. On Saturday as the Buckeyes were about to go into halftime trailing the Nittany Lions everybody was wondering why J.K. Dobbins wasn’t getting more carries.

At some points it is understandable why Mike Weber is on the field instead of Dobbins. In the fourth quarter, Ohio State was forced to pass the football more, and Weber saw more reps because he is a better pass blocker. Why Dobbins wasn’t in more as the Buckeyes were trying to erase the deficit before halftime is a little more puzzling.

When asked about the split between time on the field for Weber and Dobbins, offensive coordinator Kevin Wilson deferred to running backs coach Tony Alford since he is the one who decides who should be out there. This isn’t taking anything away from Weber either, since he is a tremendous running back, it was just odd to see one of Ohio State’s home run threats on the sidelines when they needed him most.

“Thad Matta’s abrupt dismissal from Ohio State this summer opened up one of the best high-major head coaching jobs in the country late in the offseason and vacated a different head coaching job previously occupied by Matta’s replacement.”

-Sports Illustrated


Change is never easy, but in this case it might have been necessary. Ohio State was slipping further and further from the top of the Big Ten, and if it didn’t happen when it did, it’s likely Thad Matta still didn’t have much time left as head coach at Ohio State. For all he did for the program in Columbus, Matta deserved to leave on his own terms, but an exit like that wasn’t quite meant to be.

At least if Chris Holtmann was going to move from Butler to Ohio State, he has already secured a few wins before the Buckeyes have even taken the court. Not only did Holtmann bring four-star forward Kyle Young, who was previously committed to Butler, with him to Columbus, but three-star shooting guard Musa Jallow reclassified from the class of 2018 to 2017.

Ohio State might not find very many wins this year, but next year, and beyond, the rest of the Big Ten should be on notice. The difference from Matta to Holtmann might not show very much on the court this year, as no matter the head coach Ohio State is likely to struggle, but the recruiting trail in the future is where the biggest difference will be seen. Holtmann has seen a little more success lately on the recruiting trail, and that is why the future is again bright for the Buckeyes.

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Google Photo gallery of 5-stars: Jaelen Gill against Zach Harrison - 247Sports

Photo gallery of 5-stars: Jaelen Gill against Zach Harrison - 247Sports
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Photo gallery of 5-stars: Jaelen Gill against Zach Harrison
247Sports
Ohio State H-back commitment Jaelen Gill and Lewis Center (Ohio) Olentangy Orange 2019 defensive end Zach Harrison, a huge Buckeye target, went up against each other last Friday night. Harrison and his teammates defeated Westerville (Ohio) South ...


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Google 5 Buckeye takeaways from first College Football Playoff rankings - 247Sports

5 Buckeye takeaways from first College Football Playoff rankings - 247Sports
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5 Buckeye takeaways from first College Football Playoff rankings
247Sports
The initial College Football Playoff rankings were released on Tuesday and many were surprised, including Ohio State fans. After moving up to No. 3 in both the AP and Coaches Poll, the Buckeyes were ranked No. 6 CFP selection committee. Scroll through ...
Buckeyes #6 in season's first CFP rankingNBC4i.com
OU football: ESPN analyst says Buckeyes much better than SoonersStormin' In Norman
College Football Playoff rankings: Ohio State, Big Ten shouldn't be concerned yetSporting News
Landof10.com -cleveland.com -Lansing State Journal
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LGHL Iowa’s defense will give the Buckeye offense another test

Iowa’s defense will give the Buckeye offense another test
Chad Peltier
via our friends at Land-Grant Holy Land
Visit their fantastic blog and read the full article (and so much more) here


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It’s all about red zone efficiency this week.

This is the classic trap game: big, comeback win over a top-ranked opponent, followed by a road game in a notoriously tough stadium against a team with a stout defense. Sounds like a one-score game into the 4th quarter.


Going by the S&P+, Iowa is Ohio State’s third-best opponent so far this season, but Ohio State has an 82% win probability with a projected 16-point margin.

A few concerns right off the bat: Iowa shuts down explosive plays and are solid on special teams, ranking 18th in kickoff return success rate (which, after last week, is something I have to include in the previews now).

Iowa held Penn State to 21 points and only lost on literally the last play of the game. Besides allowing 41 points to Iowa State (which doesn’t seem crazy now), the Hawkeyes have held all of their other opponents under 21 points, and under 17 in their last four games.

Iowa sets the template for the rest of Ohio State’s regular season: excellent defenses and poor offenses:

  • Iowa: 16th in defensive S&P+, 99th in offensive S&P+
  • Michigan State: 6th in defensive S&P+, 95th in offensive S&P+
  • Michigan: 15th in defensive S&P+, 73rd in offensive S&P+
  • (likely) Wisconsin: 7th in defensive S&P+, 33rd in offensive S&P+
When Ohio State has the ball


Iowa’s defense allows opponents to be very efficient running the ball, but always limits big plays, and then forces field goals in the red zone.

Bend-don’t-break defenses can be easily identified by the advanced stats. They always have excellent rankings in overall IsoPPP (limiting explosive plays) and in finishing drives (average points allowed per scoring opportunity inside the 40). That can also be measured by plays of 10+ or 20+ allowed or touchdown percentage allowed in the redzone. And Iowa excels in both categories. In fact, they’re the best bend-don’t-break defense that Ohio State has seen so far:

  1. Forces field goals: opponents have a 44% touchdown rate in the redzone (13th), opponents average just 3 points per scoring opportunity (6th)
  2. Eliminate explosive plays (9th in IsoPPP), 11th in opponents plays of 20+ yards

Penn State was close here, ranking 17th in IsoPPP and 22nd in finishing drives. The major difference is that Iowa does a lot more bending, but breaks a little less often. While Penn State’s defense is 25th in overall success rate, Iowa is 71st (63rd in success rate+). In rushing S&P+ they rank 97th. And that’s an opponent-adjusted measure, confirmed by similar ratings in opportunity rate (79th), adjusted line yards (109th), and stuff rate (88th). Dobbins, Weber, and Barrett should find a lot of success on the ground, but probably in 5-14 yard gains (which also plays into the Buckeyes’ strengths).

This means that the game will hinge on whether Ohio State can finish drives with touchdowns or if they’ll be forced to kick field goals all afternoon. Penn State is easily the best offense that Iowa has faced this season, and while Iowa holding the Nittany Lions to 21 points is impressive, it was solely due to Penn State’s inability to finish drives — Penn State had an incredible +23% success rate margin, but lost the turnover margin and averaged just 2.5 points per scoring opportunity. (Penn State also somehow ran 54 more plays than Iowa! Iowa had five three-and-outs on 13 total drives, and two scoring drives of just 3 plays each due to explosive plays). Iowa State is essentially the only other good offense the Hawkeyes have seen, and they scored 41 points.

In addition to finishing drives, it will be interesting to see how well Barrett can throw against the Hawkeyes. They rank 31st in passing S&P+ and have one of the best corners in the country in Josh Jackson, whose 15 pass break ups lead the country. Penn State’s Trace McSorley did throw for 284 yards against Iowa, but it took him 48 attempts to get there — the Hawkeyes held McSorley to 5.9 yards per pass (he averaged 6.6 last week against Ohio State).

And it’s not like their success is due to creating negative plays — they rank 90th in adjusted sack rate and 88th in run stuff rate. Defensive end Anthony Nelson is a guy to know (6 sacks, 13.8% success rate — best on the team for defenders with 10+ tackles), and linebacker Josey Jewell leads with 9.5 tackles for loss and 12 total run stuffs. So there’s definitely some very solid talent.

When Iowa has the ball


The two big things to know about Iowa’s offense:

  1. Akrum Wadley, their star running back, is explosive, but the Iowa offensive line does a very poor job giving him room to run. The offensive line ranks 103rd in stuff rate, 94th in adjusted line yards, and 123rd in power success rate.
  2. Quarterback Nate Stanley is solid. He averages 213 passing yards per game, is 40th in QB rating, and leads the 26th-ranked passing S&P+ attack.

Iowa was 31st in rushing S&P+ last season and 15th in adjusted line yards, while Wadley averaged 6.4 yards per carry with a 43.5% opportunity rate. Wadley was one of two running backs to gain over 1,000 yards. This year, Iowa ranks 77th in rushing S&P+ and 94th in adjusted line yards, and Wadley averages just 4 yards per carry with a 31.7% opportunity rate. That’s a huge step back by the offensive line. That’s especially bad in this matchup, considering Ohio State ranks 3rd in the country in stuff rate. While Iowa allows run stuff on 22.3% of runs, Ohio State’s defense gets a run stuff on 28.5% of runs. Iowa is very balanced in terms of run/pass distribution on standard downs, but that poor run blocking could really hurt the Hawkeyes by leading to a lot of third-and-longs.

So if Iowa is going to pull the upset, Stanley will likely need to carry the load. He has four clear top receivers: Nick Easley (most-targeted, low yards/catch, high catch rate), tight end Noah Fant (leads top targets in yards/catch, explosive), Matt VandeBerg (similar numbers to Fant), and Wadley (high catch rate). Ohio State’s defense did a great job slowing Barkley as a receiving option last week, but running backs and tight ends still present matchup questions for Ohio State’s defense. Chris Worley can’t be everywhere.

One final note: Iowa is a second half offense. They average 56th in first-half offensive S&P+, but 27th in second-half offensive S&P+.

Takeaways

  1. Iowa’s defense is the best at bend-don’t-break that the offense will have seen so far, limiting explosive plays (9th in IsoPPP) and forcing field goals (6th in average points allowed per scoring opportunity).
  2. Iowa’s defense is poor against the run, though, ranking 97th in rushing S&P+ and the defense as a whole is just 71st in success rate.
  3. Iowa’s offensive line has really fallen off, ranking 94th in adjusted line yards and allowing run stuff on 22.3% of runs.
  4. Iowa’s quarterback, Nate Stanley, is solid, leading the 26th-ranked passing S&P+ offense.
Picks

  • S&P+: Ohio State 34, Iowa 18. 82% win probability
  • My Pick: Ohio State 35, Iowa 14

Overall, Ohio State should win this game comfortably despite how solid Iowa’s been in pass defense and in forcing field goals over touchdowns. However, this is a tough road game and a perfect let-down spot, so it wouldn’t be too surprising for this one to be close well into the second half. If Ohio State can still throw well and maximizes their scoring opportunities, then that would say very good things about where the team is at mentally and how they’ll perform against similarly-good defenses the rest of the season.

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Google Ohio State recruiting mailbag: Buckeyes chase of Jarren Williams, Penn State game...

Ohio State recruiting mailbag: Buckeyes chase of Jarren Williams, Penn State game reverberation and more - Landof10.com
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Ohio State recruiting mailbag: Buckeyes chase of Jarren Williams, Penn State game reverberation and more
Landof10.com
Have Ohio State football recruiting questions? We've got answers. Join us every Thursday for the Land of 10 Ohio State recruiting mailbag. This week, we talk about whether the Buckeyes can get momentum after a crazy recruiting weekend in Columbus.
Hlastradamus: Doubting Buckeyes would be nutsThe Gazette: Eastern Iowa Breaking News and Headlines
Buckeyes still in wide receiver marketToledo Blade
Individual Matchup to Watch: Nate Stanley vs. The WorldBlack Heart Gold Pants
ESPN -AthlonSports.com
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Google Hlastradamus: Doubting Buckeyes would be nuts - The Gazette: Eastern Iowa Breaking News and...

Hlastradamus: Doubting Buckeyes would be nuts - The Gazette: Eastern Iowa Breaking News and Headlines
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Hlastradamus: Doubting Buckeyes would be nuts
The Gazette: Eastern Iowa Breaking News and Headlines
Heavens to Murgatroyd, that's a high number against the Hawkeyes in Kinnick Stadium. Iowa hasn't lost by that much at home in four years. Of course, Ohio State hasn't played at Kinnick in seven years. The seer knows this will be an unpopular pick in ...
Buckeyes still in wide receiver marketToledo Blade
Ohio State recruiting mailbag: Buckeyes chase of Jarren Williams, Penn State game reverberation and moreLandof10.com
Individual Matchup to Watch: Nate Stanley vs. The WorldBlack Heart Gold Pants
ESPN -AthlonSports.com
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LGHL Bedlam between Oklahoma and Oklahoma State headlines Week 10’s supersized College Football...

Bedlam between Oklahoma and Oklahoma State headlines Week 10’s supersized College Football betting slate
Brett Ludwiczak
via our friends at Land-Grant Holy Land
Visit their fantastic blog and read the full article (and so much more) here


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This week MC&J is expanding to 10 games to accommodate all of Saturday’s great games.

Last week ATS: 3-9-1 (0-5-1 National, 3-4 B1G)

Season ATS: 58-61-3 (22-25-1 National, 36-36-2 B1G)

The last few weeks have been ugly for MC&J. This week’s bigger slate of picks isn’t because we are chasing, but more because there are so many important matchups on tap.

National games:


South Carolina v. No. 1 Georgia (-24) - 3:30 PM EST - CBS

Georgia sits atop the first College Football Playoff rankings of the season, and it is looking like the Bulldogs are going to be heading to Atlanta for a showdown with Alabama for the SEC title in early December.

Will Muschamp has South Carolina playing well in his second season in Columbia, with the Gamecocks sitting at 6-2. Jake Bentley has been solid at quarterback this season, throwing 13 touchdowns and just four interceptions.

Some of the Georgia point spreads lately have been a little inflated for my taste. I was wrong last week when picking against the Bulldogs, but Florida was in even more disarray than I imagined. South Carolina is a little more stable. The Bulldogs win, but it isn’t by more than three touchdowns.

Georgia 34, South Carolina 17

Wake Forest v. No. 3 Notre Dame (-14.5) - 3:30 PM EST - NBC

The Demon Deacons are certainly battle tested as they head into South Bend for Saturday’s matchup with Notre Dame. Over their last three games, Wake Forest has taken on Clemson, Georgia Tech, and Louisville. Quarterback John Wolford has impressed this year, totaling 21 touchdowns and just two interceptions.

Not like they need it, but Notre Dame will have a bit of an advantage on Saturday, as defensive coordinator Mike Elko held the same position at Wake Forest the previous three seasons. Running back Josh Adams is putting together a Heisman worthy season so far, rushing for 1,169 yards and nine touchdowns through eight games.

I like what Wake Forest has done so far this season, but I think the spotlight here might be a little too big. The best way to put a scare into Notre Dame is to slow down their running game, but I just don’t see the Demon Deacons being able to stop Adams and quarterback Brandon Wimbush.

Notre Dame 38, Wake Forest 20

No. 4 Clemson (-7.5) v. No. 20 NC State - 3:30 PM EST - ABC

Last week, NC State was terrible in South Bend against Notre Dame. Not only did the Wolfpack lose 35-14 to the Fighting Irish, but quarterback Ryan Finley threw his first interception of the season.

Following their loss to Syracuse a few weeks ago, Clemson got back to work last week after their bye week with a 24-10 win over Georgia Tech. I’m still not sure if the Tigers are as good as many people think they are though.

I’m calling the upset here. I like Bradley Chubb and the Wolfpack defense to get after Kelly Bryant. NC State rebounds from their loss to Notre Dame in a big way by knocking Clemson out of the College Football Playoff picture.

NC State 24, Clemson 21

No. 15 Iowa State v. West Virginia (-2.5) - 3:30 PM EST - ESPN2

Iowa State continues to be the surprise of the college football season. Last week the Cyclones upset TCU in Ames to secure their fourth win in a row. How much longer will the magic last for Matt Campbell’s team? I’m not convinced it’ll be much longer.

Had it not been for the four interceptions Will Grier threw last week, West Virginia might have beaten Oklahoma State. Even with all the turnovers, the Mountaineers still only lost by 11. Last week was the first time this year in which Grier failed to throw for at least 300 yards.

Iowa State will give it all they got, but it won’t be enough as West Virginia and Grier get back on track after last week’s loss to Oklahoma State.

West Virginia 38, Iowa State 31

No. 21 Stanford v. No. 25 Washington State (-2.5) - 3:30 PM EST - FOX

We saw last week just how important Bryce Love is to Stanford. The Cardinal almost lost to Oregon State last week without Love. It sounds like Love is on track to play this weekend.

The top of the Pac-12 North could be decided in the next two weeks. The Cardinal are tied with Washington at the top, with Washington State sitting a game behind. Next week Stanford hosts Washington, so a couple wins could secure Stanford’s spot in the Pac-12 title game.

I’m not exactly sure what Mike Leach is doing at quarterback. Last week Leach benched Luke Falk in the loss to Arizona, but Falk will get the start this week. I’m just wondering if Leach has his eye on where he might be coaching next year instead of the team he is coaching right now. Love returns from injury and posts some more huge numbers in a Stanford win.

Stanford 34, Washington State 24

No. 5 Oklahoma v. No. 11 Oklahoma State (-3) - 4:00 PM EST - FS1

Bedlam has largely been dominated by Oklahoma since 2000, with the Sooners winning 13 of the 17 games played during that span. This year’s edition of the rivalry will have plenty at stake, with the loser being eliminated from College Football Playoff contention.

This game will be all about the quarterbacks. Baker Mayfield and Mason Rudolph have combined for 56 total touchdowns this year and just eight interceptions. The winner of this game could very well secure themselves a spot in New York City in December as a finalist for the Heisman Trophy.

There should be plenty of points scored in Stillwater on Saturday afternoon. I like Oklahoma a little more, but that’s mostly because Oklahoma State has made me look like a fool on numerous occasions this year. Of course since I’m picking the Sooners here, I’m sure Oklahoma State is a lock now to win.

Oklahoma 41, Oklahoma State 34

Texas v. No. 8 TCU (-7) - 7:15 PM EST - ESPN

Now that TCU has lost for the first time this season, how many losses will follow? I wasn’t all that impressed with TCU when they were undefeated, and I’m still not. I think Texas can slow down Kenny Hill.

The Longhorns sound like they are starting to get healthier at least. Sam Ehlinger didn’t play last week due to a concussion, but it’s possible he plays this week. Even if he doesn’t, the Longhorns still have Shane Buechele at quarterback. It won’t matter who starts for Texas, as they beat TCU by a field goal either way.

Texas 27, TCU 24

No. 19 LSU v. No. 2 Alabama (-21) - 8:00 PM EST - CBS

The last time a game in this rivalry was decided by more than 21 points was back in 2002. While Alabama has been destroying their opponents this year, at least LSU will have a solid defense to take into the battle with the Crimson Tide.

I feel like after the embarrassing loss to Troy earlier in the year, LSU has found their footing over the past few games. The Tigers will lose their seventh straight to Alabama, but at least they’ll be able to score a couple times against the Crimson Tide.

Alabama 31, LSU 14

No. 13 Virginia Tech (-3) v. No. 10 Miami (FL) - 8:00 PM EST - ABC

Either this week or next week Miami is going to finally lose a game, and I’m thinking they suffer their first loss sooner rather than later. Mark Richt has Miami ahead of schedule as he tries to rebuild the football program, but their luck finally runs out.

Quarterbacks Josh Jackson and Malik Rosier have similar numbers on the season, with both throwing for 17 touchdowns and just four interceptions. I just feel like Miami is so much more beaten up that Virginia Tech right now. The Hokies are the most complete team Miami has played this year, and it’ll show on the scoreboard on Saturday night.

Virginia Tech 31, Miami 21

No. 22 Arizona v. No. 17 USC (-7) - 10:45 PM EST - ESPN

This game has nothing to do with the College Football Playoff picture, but it’s likely going to be a very fun way to end what could be the most entertaining Saturday of the college football season so far.

Quarterback Khalil Tate has burst onto the scene for Arizona, throwing for six touchdowns and adding nearly 900 yards rushing and eight touchdowns over the last four games. It looks like RichRod has found the next mobile quarterback to thrive under his tutelage, following in the footsteps of Pat White and Denard Robinson.

Tate has been awesome over the past four games, but I’m not sold on the rest of the Arizona team. The Wildcats still have a putrid defense, as they have allowed at least 30 points in each conference game this year. Sam Darnold and the rest of the talented USC offense are able to put up some big numbers on the Wildcats and slow Tate enough to win by a couple touchdowns.

USC 42, Arizona 27

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LGHL Iowa’s Nate Stanley will keep the Hawkeyes competitive against Ohio State in Week 10

Iowa’s Nate Stanley will keep the Hawkeyes competitive against Ohio State in Week 10
Christopher Jason
via our friends at Land-Grant Holy Land
Visit their fantastic blog and read the full article (and so much more) here


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The quarterback seems to always make the correct play.

Nate Stanley is smart with the football, he takes care of the ball and takes what the defense gives him. Nate Stanley is the prototypical Iowa Hawkeye quarterback.

I mean, look at this play against Iowa State:


Iowa came out in a double tight end set on second-and-ten. The flexed tight end ran the outside linebacker out of the play, while the tight end on the line of scrimmage blocked down on the defensive end. The other two linebackers flowed away from the play due to the play-action, and the tight end released from his block into the flat. Stanley faced pressure but threw the ball accurately to his tight end, who rumbled down the sideline to the end zone.

When re-watching Iowa’s big win over current No. 15 Iowa State, it’s clear Iowa is still very much Iowa.

The Hawkeyes run the ball 56-percent of the time (Ohio State has a 52:48 run:pass ratio). They have a solid run game with Akrum Wadley that sets up play-action. Stanley utilizes his tight ends Noah Fant and T.J. Hockenson better than just about any other quarterback. Most importantly, Stanley takes what the defense gives him, finds the open receiver and throws an accurate football — completing a season-best 65.9-percent of his passes vs the Cyclones.

This isn’t the flashiest play of the afternoon, but Stanley showed some poise in the pocket while facing a rush. He stood his ground and delivered a strike to Fant, to move the chains on third down with two minutes remaining.


Stanley drove his team down the field to tie the game and send it to overtime. He relied on his tight ends and Wadley, who took a pass from Stanley and found the end zone on a brilliant individual effort. Stanley then hit his receiver in overtime to win the game and defeat the Cyclones.

The talent discrepancy between the Buckeyes and Iowa is more than evident. However, they’re well-coached and they can play with just about anyone. They defeated No. 15 Iowa State in Ames, IA, lost a heart breaker to Penn State, and fell to Michigan State in East Lansing by a score.

Ohio State’s talent will be the difference in the game, but don’t be surprised if Stanley tests the linebackers and secondary in coverage if he gets the time to do so. If they can control the clock and play sound defense, they should keep it competitive.


Ferentz on OSU: "We don't want to get in a recruiting contest with these guys or go to a combine, because we'd get killed."

— MarkEmmert (@MarkEmmert) October 31, 2017

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2017 MLB Playoffs (Official Thread)

hindsight is 20/20 but IMIMHO darvish shouldve never come out for the second inning

But Kershaw blew two big leads in Game 5. If he starts Game 7 on short rest and spots the Astros a 4-0 lead Roberts gets blasted for not starting Darvish. The argument goes both ways.

Darvish was acquired specifically for the postseason, especially his familiarity with AL batters.
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LGHL Want to hang out with Matt Brown and other LGHLers? Come join us

Want to hang out with Matt Brown and other LGHLers? Come join us
Matt Brown
via our friends at Land-Grant Holy Land
Visit their fantastic blog and read the full article (and so much more) here


Screen_Shot_2017_11_02_at_11.13.58_AM.0.png

If you’re in New York City or Columbus, let’s hang out.

You know what we haven’t done in a while? Some good ol’ in-person meetups.

I’m hitting the road in a few weeks for a mini book tour for my college football history book, “What If? A closer look at college football’s great questions”, and would love to hang out with y’all.

Here are the details:

New York City


When: Tuesday, November 14

Where: 205 E 42nd Street, New York, NY 10017

What: I’m partnering with the NYC Ohio State Alumni Club for a meet and greet and book signing. Cocktails will start at 6:30, and then the event will start at 7:00. I’ll talk a little bit about the book, and then whatever else anybody would like to talk about.

This event is open to the public (although it’s a smaller space, so you may want to plan on being there at 6:30). We’ll be raffling off a few free copies of the book, and I’ll be selling and signing others. If you’re in NYC, come say hi and hang out!

Columbus


When: Friday, November 17

Where: THE BOOK LOFT, 631 S 3rd St, Columbus, OH 43206, 7 PM.

What: I’ll be doing a meet and greet and book signing. A few other LGHL editors and writers may be there, and then we can all go grab beverages together afterwards.


I am also working to secure an event in Licking County that week as well, if you’re east of Columbus and don’t want to make the drive.

Will you be going anywhere else?


The current plan is to hold an event in Washington D.C. in January, with possible future events in Salt Lake City, Chicago and Cleveland. If you’d like me to come to your area, shoot me an email or DM, and if we can figure out a bookstore or library to serve as the anchor for an event, we can probably figure something out.

Is this book even any good?


Most people like it! There’s a few good nuggets about Ohio State in here, including how their rivalry with Michigan might be different had the Wolverines not re-joined the Big Ten (they got kicked out!), and how the Jim Tressel era, or Terrelle Pryor era, might have been different had 2007 WVU beaten Pitt. But if you love CFB history, failed conference realignment, and enjoyed some of my posts on this website, I think you’ll like the book.

Anyway, let’s all hang out in a few weeks! I hope to see some of you there.

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Google Jarren Williams offered by Ohio State Buckeyes - A Sea of Blue

Jarren Williams offered by Ohio State Buckeyes - A Sea of Blue
via Google News using key phrase "Buckeyes".


Jarren Williams offered by Ohio State Buckeyes
A Sea of Blue
The Buckeyes already have a commitment from four-star duel threat QB Emory Jones, who committed to the Buckeyes in July of 2016, but several recruiting experts (including Wiltfong) are predicting Jones to flip to Alabama. In fact, five experts flipped ...
Ohio State just offered another 2018 QB. What does that mean?Land-Grant Holy Land
Ohio State Offers Kentucky Four-Star Quarterback Commit Jarren WilliamsEleven Warriors

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Google Hoops & Scoops | Buckeyes have discussed games at St. John, Holtmann tells local radio -...

Hoops & Scoops | Buckeyes have discussed games at St. John, Holtmann tells local radio - The Columbus Dispatch
via Google News using key phrase "Buckeyes".


Hoops & Scoops | Buckeyes have discussed games at St. John, Holtmann tells local radio
The Columbus Dispatch
The Buckeyes will unofficially begin the season Sunday when they host the College of Wooster for an exhibition game at 4 p.m. The game will be played at Value City Arena. In the 15-minute interview, Holtmann said he's been impressed with the quality of ...

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Google Photo Gallery: Recruit list for Penn State game skewed younger - 247Sports

Photo Gallery: Recruit list for Penn State game skewed younger - 247Sports
via Google News using key phrase "Buckeyes".


Photo Gallery: Recruit list for Penn State game skewed younger
247Sports
There was a heavy emphasis on underclassmen, including Dublin Coffman's A.J. and Cam Kirk. Steve Helwagen - 30 minutes ago; 0; Tools. Edit; Slot to 247Sports Home; Slot to Ohio State Buckeyes Newsletter; Slot to Ohio State Links. Show All Slides Start ...


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Google Buckeyes draw Tigers in Region 23 bout - Athens Messenger

Buckeyes draw Tigers in Region 23 bout - Athens Messenger
via Google News using key phrase "Buckeyes".


Buckeyes draw Tigers in Region 23 bout
Athens Messenger
Nelsonville-York's Garrett Maiden (9) defends a pass intended for Athens' Nate Trainer on Friday, while N-Y's Jonathan Richards (10) looks on. The Buckeyes host Shadyside on Friday at 7:30 p.m. in a Division VI, Region 23 quarterfinal. Messenger photo ...

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