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Mid-November Heisman Race Update
- Buckeye Football
- 2 Replies
Hey, what's that over there??
*type* *type* *type*
What do you mean? No they're not!
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tOSU @ Northwestern, Sat Nov 5, 12pm, ABC
- By rsh
- 2022 Football Season Capsule
- 1734 Replies
Thoughts and observations before we move on to the Indinia game:
The rushing offense had fans pulling hairs out again, and understandably so. But if one just watch the box score instead of the game, it was hardly a bad day for the run game in the office:
That was a better ypc average than TTUN did against Butgers:
I also charted all tOSU runs from the NW game, and the rolling 3-play ypc:
tOSU had bad stretch in the 1Q (culminated in the failed 4th-and-1 rush), but actually recovered or adjusted fairly well afterwards; their rolling 3-play ypc never dropped below the critical 3.5 line until the final drive when they just couldn't wait to get out of Evanston. (If a team is averaging more than 3.5 ypc consistently, it can keep drives alive by rushing exclusively ... without risking it on 4th.) IMO the bad stretch in the 1Q skewed our perception of the rush O adversely.
However, we do have a short yardage problem (dating back to summer camp, or even laster year). Remember this nugget from August?
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All the short yardage runs from the NW game (any down, distance < 3):
That was a conversion rate of 5/9, or 55%. Definitely needs more work. If we count consecutive 3rd & 4th down runs as 1 data point, the conversion rate looks a little better at 5/7, or 71%.
For reference, I found an article charting average 3rd down conversion rate based on distance from Covid-shortened 2020 season:
Now regarding the rush defense, NW gained 200+ yards, but scored only 7 points (61 rush yards on NW's only TD drive in the 1H).
In general, tOSU played bend-don't-break defense. NW would break occasional big runs, especially early in drives, but never had sustained success. This can be visualized in the following chart. NW's run game was very herky-jerky, every spike (big run from NW to start a drive) was followed by a trough below the critical 3-play 3.5 ypc mark (consecutive run stops by tOSU to kill a drive):
The spike-and-plunge pattern actually repeated itself throughout the game, making one wonder whether this was by design from Knowles? Nobody likes to give up yards, but it was a much better alternative than giving up points, especially in an extreme weather game where scoring was a premium. The way to lose a game to an inferior opponent in a low scoring affair is to give up fluky or "cheap" big-play touchdowns. So bend-don't-break would make sense here.
Or, I have another theory that I didn't bother to verify. Was the pattern a result of the DL substitutions? i.e. 1st string DL takes a break, big run from NW; 1st string DL comes back, put out fire. Probably too much work for a game against NW, but if any of you managed to chart the players on the field for each defensive play, this would be an interesting point to look for.
The rushing offense had fans pulling hairs out again, and understandably so. But if one just watch the box score instead of the game, it was hardly a bad day for the run game in the office:
| Team | O |
|---|---|
| Rushing | 207 |
| Rushing Attempts | 35 |
| Yards per rush | 5.9 |
| Team | |
|---|---|
| Rushing | 282 |
| Rushing Attempts | 53 |
| Yards per rush | 5.3 |
tOSU had bad stretch in the 1Q (culminated in the failed 4th-and-1 rush), but actually recovered or adjusted fairly well afterwards; their rolling 3-play ypc never dropped below the critical 3.5 line until the final drive when they just couldn't wait to get out of Evanston. (If a team is averaging more than 3.5 ypc consistently, it can keep drives alive by rushing exclusively ... without risking it on 4th.) IMO the bad stretch in the 1Q skewed our perception of the rush O adversely.
However, we do have a short yardage problem (dating back to summer camp, or even laster year). Remember this nugget from August?
Login to view embedded media
All the short yardage runs from the NW game (any down, distance < 3):
| period | down | distance | yardsGained | athleteName |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | 1 | 3 | Miyan Williams |
| 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | Miyan Williams |
| 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | Miyan Williams |
| 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | Miyan Williams |
| 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | Miyan Williams |
| 2 | 4 | 1 | 16 | C.J. Stroud |
| 3 | 3 | 3 | 27 | Miyan Williams |
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | Miyan Williams |
| 4 | 3 | 2 | 6 | Miyan Williams |
For reference, I found an article charting average 3rd down conversion rate based on distance from Covid-shortened 2020 season:
Now regarding the rush defense, NW gained 200+ yards, but scored only 7 points (61 rush yards on NW's only TD drive in the 1H).
In general, tOSU played bend-don't-break defense. NW would break occasional big runs, especially early in drives, but never had sustained success. This can be visualized in the following chart. NW's run game was very herky-jerky, every spike (big run from NW to start a drive) was followed by a trough below the critical 3-play 3.5 ypc mark (consecutive run stops by tOSU to kill a drive):
The spike-and-plunge pattern actually repeated itself throughout the game, making one wonder whether this was by design from Knowles? Nobody likes to give up yards, but it was a much better alternative than giving up points, especially in an extreme weather game where scoring was a premium. The way to lose a game to an inferior opponent in a low scoring affair is to give up fluky or "cheap" big-play touchdowns. So bend-don't-break would make sense here.
Or, I have another theory that I didn't bother to verify. Was the pattern a result of the DL substitutions? i.e. 1st string DL takes a break, big run from NW; 1st string DL comes back, put out fire. Probably too much work for a game against NW, but if any of you managed to chart the players on the field for each defensive play, this would be an interesting point to look for.
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LGHL Play Like a Girl podcast: Justin Fields is finally figuring it out
- News
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Play Like a Girl podcast: Justin Fields is finally figuring it out
Meredith Hein via our friends at Land-Grant Holy Land
Visit their fantastic blog and read the full article (and so much more) here
Jamie Sabau-USA TODAY Sports
Alexis also shares her thoughts on if the Eagles could win it all, plus a recap of this weekend’s best games.
On LGHL’s Play Like a Girl podcast, Alexis and Meredith talk everything from Ohio State sports to advocacy for women in sports and all the happenings in between.
Check out the podcast below, and make sure to subscribe wherever you get your podcasts:
Welcome back to the Play Like a Girl podcast! This week, Alexis and Meredith caught up on NFL news, including an update on Alexis’ undefeated Philadelphia Eagles and her thoughts on completing the season undefeated, making it to the Super Bowl, and winning the Super Bowl.
Plus, the pair talk about our resident favorite quarterback Justin Fields’ record-breaking rushing performance Sunday — and how another Ohio State quarterback performed on the ground in Chicago Saturday.
They also review how Team Cat did vs. Team Dog this week and talk about what we expect from Ohio State this weekend against Indiana. Hopefully more offense.
Contact Alexis Chassen
Twitter: @lovelybuckeye
Contact Meredith Hein
Twitter: @MeredithHein
Continue reading...
Meredith Hein via our friends at Land-Grant Holy Land
Visit their fantastic blog and read the full article (and so much more) here
Jamie Sabau-USA TODAY Sports
Alexis also shares her thoughts on if the Eagles could win it all, plus a recap of this weekend’s best games.
On LGHL’s Play Like a Girl podcast, Alexis and Meredith talk everything from Ohio State sports to advocacy for women in sports and all the happenings in between.
Check out the podcast below, and make sure to subscribe wherever you get your podcasts:
Welcome back to the Play Like a Girl podcast! This week, Alexis and Meredith caught up on NFL news, including an update on Alexis’ undefeated Philadelphia Eagles and her thoughts on completing the season undefeated, making it to the Super Bowl, and winning the Super Bowl.
Plus, the pair talk about our resident favorite quarterback Justin Fields’ record-breaking rushing performance Sunday — and how another Ohio State quarterback performed on the ground in Chicago Saturday.
They also review how Team Cat did vs. Team Dog this week and talk about what we expect from Ohio State this weekend against Indiana. Hopefully more offense.
Contact Alexis Chassen
Twitter: @lovelybuckeye
Contact Meredith Hein
Twitter: @MeredithHein
Continue reading...
LGHL MC&J: TCU will try and stay undefeated when they take on Texas on Saturday
- News
- 0 Replies
MC&J: TCU will try and stay undefeated when they take on Texas on Saturday
Brett Ludwiczak via our friends at Land-Grant Holy Land
Visit their fantastic blog and read the full article (and so much more) here
Photo by G Fiume/Getty Images
Plus, picks for six other interesting games outside the Big Ten on Saturday.
Last week ATS: 11-3 (4-3 B1G, 7-0 National)
Season ATS: 75-75-3 (35-39-1 B1G, 40-35-2 National)
If only I could make picks every week like I did last week. Thanks to the huge week, our record is back to even with a month of games left to go, as well as bowl season.
National games:
(All lines courtesy of Draftkings Sportsbook.)
No. 7 LSU (-3.5) v. Arkansas - 12:00 p.m. - ESPN
LSU enters this matchup coming off the emotional win over Alabama last week. After a tough start to the season, Jayden Daniels has become more comfortable in the LSU offense. Not only has Daniels recorded 24 total touchdowns this year, the Arizona State transfer has done a great job at limiting mistakes, only throwing one interception.
After starting the season with a ton of promise, Arkansas has fallen apart, losing four of their last six games The most recent loss came last week when they were defeated in Fayetteville by Liberty. KJ Jefferson has the ability to match Daniels on the ground and through the air, the Arkansas quarterback just isn’t getting much help.
Normally I’d say this game is a textbook scenario to take the Razorbacks. While the idea of taking an unranked home underdog hosting a ranked team coming off a huge win sounds great, this LSU team feels a little different. The Tigers look like they are buying into Brian Kelly’s coaching. Arkansas could make things interesting for a while, I just think LSU ends up winning this game by 7-10 points.
LSU 31, Arkansas 21
Louisville v. No. 10 Clemson (-7) - 3:30 p.m. - ESPN
Are we really sure that Clemson is that much better of a team than Louisville right now? The Cardinals have found a bit of a rhythm, winning their last four games. Malik Cunningham isn’t going to wow anybody with his passing, but he can keep opponents off balance with his ability to run the football. The Louisville offense is pretty balanced, throwing for 221 yards per game, while running for 202 yards per contest.
Clemson is in a lot of trouble right now. The Tigers looked listless in a 35-14 loss to Notre Dame last week. Even though the Tigers are still in the driver’s seat to make the ACC Championship Game, it is obvious they had a bigger goal for this season. It’ll be interesting to see if Dabo Swinney sticks with D.J. Uiagalelei, or turns to freshman quarterback Cade Klubnik.
Some may think the loss to the Fighting Irish might wake the Tigers up. I’m not so sure since Clemson has a number of problems. The Tigers don’t have playmakers on either side of the football that they have had in the past. A dynamic quarterback like Cunningham could cause fits for the Tigers, who are already dealing with confidence issues.
Louisville 28, Clemson 24
No. 9 Alabama (-11.5) v. No. 11 Ole Miss - 3:30 p.m. - CBS
We have all seen this snuff film before. Alabama drops a game and Sabanbot2000 has his team ready to murder in their next game. The Crimson Tide obviously don’t have the receivers that we have seen from them over the last few years. What they do have is Bryce Young. Even though the quarterback isn’t in the Heisman Trophy conversation after winning last year, he is still one of the most dangerous players in college football.
Ole Miss is one of the best teams in the country at running the football. Unfortunately for the Rebels, Alabama doesn’t give up much on the ground, with opponents averaging 104 yards per game rushing against the Crimson Tide. If Alabama is able to slow down Quinshon Judkins, that puts more pressure on Jaxson Dart, who has thrown seven interceptions this year.
Even though Ole Miss has just one loss this year, they haven’t really played anyone aside from LSU. I’m not convinced the Rebels are ready to win, or even keep a game like this close. The Crimson Tide keep themselves in position in the SEC West in case LSU falters down the stretch. Alabama wins their six straight against the Rebels by at least 15 points.
Alabama 45, Ole Miss 23
No. 22 UCF v. No. 17 Tulane (-1.5) - 3:30 p.m. - ESPN2
If at the beginning of the year you told me I’d be writing about this game in November, I would have thought you were crazy. Saturday’s contest in New Orleans will go a long way at determining the New Year’s Six Group of Five representative.
UCF has an offense that is averaging over 500 yards per game. What we don’t know is who is going to be taking the snaps for the Knights. Last week, John Rhys Plumlee missed the 35-28 win over Memphis with a concussion. In Plumlee’s place, Mikey Keene threw for 219 yards and three scores, while running back RJ Harvey rushed for 151 yards and a touchdown.
Tulane does a lot of little things well. The Green Wave are allowing just over 300 yards per game this year, while scoring 33 points. I’m just not convinced this is a good matchup for them. UCF has a lot of tough wins over the last few years, while Tulane hasn’t been tested all that much. I feel like Plumlee will be back, which makes things even tougher for the Green Wave in this game.
UCF 34, Tulane 30
No. 1 Georgia (-16) v. Mississippi State - 7:00 p.m. - ESPN
Under Mike Leach, Mississippi State seems to make a name for themselves by putting up a bunch of points against bad teams, and then folding like a cheap tent against good team. Hell, Leach was even folding chairs himself on the sidelines because he didn’t think his wide receivers deserved to sit in them.
Last week: Mike Leach said last week he was worried his WRs kids would have T-Rex arms because they sucked so bad at catching.
Tonight: Leach throws all his WR's chairs on the ground b/c they don't deserve to sit. (h/t @JonathanFlippo) pic.twitter.com/DlhVnr0ZPR
— Jim Weber (@JimMWeber) November 6, 2022
Aside from a road game against Missouri last month, Georgia hasn’t really been tested this year. The Bulldogs destroyed Oregon in the opener, and in the last two weeks they’ve easily handled Florida and Tennessee. Even though Georgia lost a lot of the stars from last year’s title team to the NFL, Stetson Bennett is still in Athens, running an offense that doesn’t make many mistakes.
While there will be plenty of cowbells ringing in Starkville, Georgia is too good to be effected by the road trip and the Mississippi State fans. As we saw last week, Kirby Smart’s team can shut down the pass. It’s not like Mike Leach’s squad can hurt you any other way when you take away their air attack.
Georgia 38, Mississippi State 14
No. 25 Washington v. No. 6 Oregon (-13.5) - 7:00 p.m. - FOX
After dropping games to UCLA and Arizona State, Washington has rebounded with wins in their last three games. The victories might have not been runaways, with the Huskies winning the games against Arizona, Cal, and Oregon State by a combined 20 points, but wins are wins. Amazingly, last week against the Beavers saw Michael Penix Jr. fail to throw for at least 300 yards in a game for the first time this season. Penix finished with 298 yards passing in the win.
If you take away the 49-3 loss to Georgia in the opener, and there is no way the Ducks would be outside the top-four in the CFP rankings. Oregon has scored at least 40 points in each of the eight games following the drubbing by the Bulldogs. With four total touchdowns last week against Colorado, Bo Nix now has 35 scores on the season.
Oregon has largely dominated this series of late, winning 15 of the last 17 meetings with their neighbors to the north. The only two Washington wins during that span came in 2016 and 2017. I feel like the Ducks are going to earn another win on Saturday night, I’m just not sure it will be by two touchdowns. The last three games between the rivals have been decided by a combined 17 points. Washington has the firepower to at least keep the Ducks from running away with the game.
Oregon 41, Washington 31
No. 4 TCU v. No. 18 Texas (-7) - 7:30 p.m. - ABC
Honestly, I’m not even sure why they are playing this game. All I’m hearing is how it is a lock that Texas is going to win, and the College Football Playoff committee is going to be so relieved when the Longhorns hand the Horned Frogs their first loss of the season. I must have missed where Texas became such a reliable team.
Not that I don’t get why people are already burying TCU. The Horned Frogs have been playing with fire for the last month, with all five of their wins coming by 10 points or less. In most of those games, TCU was trailing in the second half. While some might knock the Horned Frogs for needing so long to get things together in games, I actually credit them for never giving up.
Texas certainly is a different team with Quinn Ewers at quarterback. Let’s not kid ourselves though, Bijan Robinson is what makes the Longhorn offense tick. Robinson has 1,129 yards and 12 touchdowns on the ground this year. Even with Robinson and Ewers, Texas still has to work way too hard to win games. The Longhorns almost lost to Iowa State and Kansas State, while dropping an extremely winnable game against Oklahoma State.
I know Austin is going to be rocking on Saturday. It’s not anything TCU can’t handle, though. It just seems like everybody and their mom is on the Longhorns in this game, which makes it hard to pass up taking the touchdown with the Horned Frogs against a Texas team that loves making a meal out of everything they do.
TCU 37, Texas 34
Odds/lines subject to change. T&Cs apply. See draftkings.com/sportsbook for details.
Continue reading...
Brett Ludwiczak via our friends at Land-Grant Holy Land
Visit their fantastic blog and read the full article (and so much more) here
Photo by G Fiume/Getty Images
Plus, picks for six other interesting games outside the Big Ten on Saturday.
Last week ATS: 11-3 (4-3 B1G, 7-0 National)
Season ATS: 75-75-3 (35-39-1 B1G, 40-35-2 National)
If only I could make picks every week like I did last week. Thanks to the huge week, our record is back to even with a month of games left to go, as well as bowl season.
National games:
(All lines courtesy of Draftkings Sportsbook.)
No. 7 LSU (-3.5) v. Arkansas - 12:00 p.m. - ESPN
LSU enters this matchup coming off the emotional win over Alabama last week. After a tough start to the season, Jayden Daniels has become more comfortable in the LSU offense. Not only has Daniels recorded 24 total touchdowns this year, the Arizona State transfer has done a great job at limiting mistakes, only throwing one interception.
After starting the season with a ton of promise, Arkansas has fallen apart, losing four of their last six games The most recent loss came last week when they were defeated in Fayetteville by Liberty. KJ Jefferson has the ability to match Daniels on the ground and through the air, the Arkansas quarterback just isn’t getting much help.
Normally I’d say this game is a textbook scenario to take the Razorbacks. While the idea of taking an unranked home underdog hosting a ranked team coming off a huge win sounds great, this LSU team feels a little different. The Tigers look like they are buying into Brian Kelly’s coaching. Arkansas could make things interesting for a while, I just think LSU ends up winning this game by 7-10 points.
LSU 31, Arkansas 21
Louisville v. No. 10 Clemson (-7) - 3:30 p.m. - ESPN
Are we really sure that Clemson is that much better of a team than Louisville right now? The Cardinals have found a bit of a rhythm, winning their last four games. Malik Cunningham isn’t going to wow anybody with his passing, but he can keep opponents off balance with his ability to run the football. The Louisville offense is pretty balanced, throwing for 221 yards per game, while running for 202 yards per contest.
Clemson is in a lot of trouble right now. The Tigers looked listless in a 35-14 loss to Notre Dame last week. Even though the Tigers are still in the driver’s seat to make the ACC Championship Game, it is obvious they had a bigger goal for this season. It’ll be interesting to see if Dabo Swinney sticks with D.J. Uiagalelei, or turns to freshman quarterback Cade Klubnik.
Some may think the loss to the Fighting Irish might wake the Tigers up. I’m not so sure since Clemson has a number of problems. The Tigers don’t have playmakers on either side of the football that they have had in the past. A dynamic quarterback like Cunningham could cause fits for the Tigers, who are already dealing with confidence issues.
Louisville 28, Clemson 24
No. 9 Alabama (-11.5) v. No. 11 Ole Miss - 3:30 p.m. - CBS
We have all seen this snuff film before. Alabama drops a game and Sabanbot2000 has his team ready to murder in their next game. The Crimson Tide obviously don’t have the receivers that we have seen from them over the last few years. What they do have is Bryce Young. Even though the quarterback isn’t in the Heisman Trophy conversation after winning last year, he is still one of the most dangerous players in college football.
Ole Miss is one of the best teams in the country at running the football. Unfortunately for the Rebels, Alabama doesn’t give up much on the ground, with opponents averaging 104 yards per game rushing against the Crimson Tide. If Alabama is able to slow down Quinshon Judkins, that puts more pressure on Jaxson Dart, who has thrown seven interceptions this year.
Even though Ole Miss has just one loss this year, they haven’t really played anyone aside from LSU. I’m not convinced the Rebels are ready to win, or even keep a game like this close. The Crimson Tide keep themselves in position in the SEC West in case LSU falters down the stretch. Alabama wins their six straight against the Rebels by at least 15 points.
Alabama 45, Ole Miss 23
No. 22 UCF v. No. 17 Tulane (-1.5) - 3:30 p.m. - ESPN2
If at the beginning of the year you told me I’d be writing about this game in November, I would have thought you were crazy. Saturday’s contest in New Orleans will go a long way at determining the New Year’s Six Group of Five representative.
UCF has an offense that is averaging over 500 yards per game. What we don’t know is who is going to be taking the snaps for the Knights. Last week, John Rhys Plumlee missed the 35-28 win over Memphis with a concussion. In Plumlee’s place, Mikey Keene threw for 219 yards and three scores, while running back RJ Harvey rushed for 151 yards and a touchdown.
Tulane does a lot of little things well. The Green Wave are allowing just over 300 yards per game this year, while scoring 33 points. I’m just not convinced this is a good matchup for them. UCF has a lot of tough wins over the last few years, while Tulane hasn’t been tested all that much. I feel like Plumlee will be back, which makes things even tougher for the Green Wave in this game.
UCF 34, Tulane 30
No. 1 Georgia (-16) v. Mississippi State - 7:00 p.m. - ESPN
Under Mike Leach, Mississippi State seems to make a name for themselves by putting up a bunch of points against bad teams, and then folding like a cheap tent against good team. Hell, Leach was even folding chairs himself on the sidelines because he didn’t think his wide receivers deserved to sit in them.
Last week: Mike Leach said last week he was worried his WRs kids would have T-Rex arms because they sucked so bad at catching.
Tonight: Leach throws all his WR's chairs on the ground b/c they don't deserve to sit. (h/t @JonathanFlippo) pic.twitter.com/DlhVnr0ZPR
— Jim Weber (@JimMWeber) November 6, 2022
Aside from a road game against Missouri last month, Georgia hasn’t really been tested this year. The Bulldogs destroyed Oregon in the opener, and in the last two weeks they’ve easily handled Florida and Tennessee. Even though Georgia lost a lot of the stars from last year’s title team to the NFL, Stetson Bennett is still in Athens, running an offense that doesn’t make many mistakes.
While there will be plenty of cowbells ringing in Starkville, Georgia is too good to be effected by the road trip and the Mississippi State fans. As we saw last week, Kirby Smart’s team can shut down the pass. It’s not like Mike Leach’s squad can hurt you any other way when you take away their air attack.
Georgia 38, Mississippi State 14
No. 25 Washington v. No. 6 Oregon (-13.5) - 7:00 p.m. - FOX
After dropping games to UCLA and Arizona State, Washington has rebounded with wins in their last three games. The victories might have not been runaways, with the Huskies winning the games against Arizona, Cal, and Oregon State by a combined 20 points, but wins are wins. Amazingly, last week against the Beavers saw Michael Penix Jr. fail to throw for at least 300 yards in a game for the first time this season. Penix finished with 298 yards passing in the win.
If you take away the 49-3 loss to Georgia in the opener, and there is no way the Ducks would be outside the top-four in the CFP rankings. Oregon has scored at least 40 points in each of the eight games following the drubbing by the Bulldogs. With four total touchdowns last week against Colorado, Bo Nix now has 35 scores on the season.
Oregon has largely dominated this series of late, winning 15 of the last 17 meetings with their neighbors to the north. The only two Washington wins during that span came in 2016 and 2017. I feel like the Ducks are going to earn another win on Saturday night, I’m just not sure it will be by two touchdowns. The last three games between the rivals have been decided by a combined 17 points. Washington has the firepower to at least keep the Ducks from running away with the game.
Oregon 41, Washington 31
No. 4 TCU v. No. 18 Texas (-7) - 7:30 p.m. - ABC
Honestly, I’m not even sure why they are playing this game. All I’m hearing is how it is a lock that Texas is going to win, and the College Football Playoff committee is going to be so relieved when the Longhorns hand the Horned Frogs their first loss of the season. I must have missed where Texas became such a reliable team.
Not that I don’t get why people are already burying TCU. The Horned Frogs have been playing with fire for the last month, with all five of their wins coming by 10 points or less. In most of those games, TCU was trailing in the second half. While some might knock the Horned Frogs for needing so long to get things together in games, I actually credit them for never giving up.
Texas certainly is a different team with Quinn Ewers at quarterback. Let’s not kid ourselves though, Bijan Robinson is what makes the Longhorn offense tick. Robinson has 1,129 yards and 12 touchdowns on the ground this year. Even with Robinson and Ewers, Texas still has to work way too hard to win games. The Longhorns almost lost to Iowa State and Kansas State, while dropping an extremely winnable game against Oklahoma State.
I know Austin is going to be rocking on Saturday. It’s not anything TCU can’t handle, though. It just seems like everybody and their mom is on the Longhorns in this game, which makes it hard to pass up taking the touchdown with the Horned Frogs against a Texas team that loves making a meal out of everything they do.
TCU 37, Texas 34
Odds/lines subject to change. T&Cs apply. See draftkings.com/sportsbook for details.
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LGHL Jacy Sheldon leads Ohio State’s toppling of Rocky Top
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- 0 Replies
Jacy Sheldon leads Ohio State’s toppling of Rocky Top
1ThomasCostello via our friends at Land-Grant Holy Land
Visit their fantastic blog and read the full article (and so much more) here
Joseph Scheller/Columbus Dispatch / USA TODAY NETWORK
The Dublin, Ohio guard’s defensive play is the foundation of Ohio State’s signature win against the University of Tennessee.
There was an electricity about Tuesday’s Ohio State Buckeyes game even before the clock started to run. In the weeks leading up to the game, Ohio State pushed to get their fans into the Schottenstein Center on Election Day, while Tennessee Volunteers orange stood out throughout the arena. There were pyrotechnics, a loud student section, and a small part of the Best Damn Band in the Land heightening the atmosphere. Once the game began though, it was guard Jacy Sheldon pulling in the collective attention.
The Vols started the game as expected, getting to the hoop. Tennessee featured a starting lineup including transfer student Rickea Jackson who led the SEC in points per game last season, 6-foot-6 center Tamari Key in the paint and local Columbus-area high school star Jordan Horston leading head coach Kellie Harper’s side.
Tennessee struck first, going up four points. Combine that with a tough start for the Scarlet and Gray, missing their initial three shots and earning an early turnover and foul. In response, the Schottenstein Center was reduced to the cavernous multipurpose arena that it is, instead of a sixth player in the stands. In stepped an unforgiving Sheldon.
Why unforgiving? All night Sheldon made the Vols regret any small mistake within her reach.
Down four, Sheldon earned two quick steals turned to assists to Taylor Mikesell and Taylor Thierry. The first, Sheldon anticipating a pass from Jackson beyond the arc, creating a fast break. The second, the guard making even a simple inbound pass difficult for the visitors, quickly finding the outlet to Mikesell. It was the start of a defensive performance that surprised everyone but Sheldon’s teammates.
“I’m used to Jacy being a defensive player,” said Mikesell after the 87-75 victory. “I think we’ve gotten used to playing with each other in our little press and then bringing Madison (Greene) back, it’s good to have three defensive players in the back. We got a lot of stops that helped us on our offense.”
It wasn’t necessarily a surprise that Sheldon was strong defensively. After all, she was named to the B1G All-Defensive Team in 2021-22 on top of her unanimous First Team All-B1G honor. The surprise was how Tennessee couldn’t stop it.
Sheldon met her career high in takeaways Tuesday, in the first half alone. Then in the second she doubled it. The Naismith watch list player’s eight steals came in a variety of ways. Outside of a couple anticipated passes, Sheldon dived to the ground, forced drops and wrestled the ball away from players seven to 12 inches taller.
There was no hesitation. Sheldon was laser-focused on the court, which is nothing new. After making her 1,000th career point last year in another marquee victory, against the Maryland Terrapins, Sheldon appeared annoyed when the announcer shared her accomplishment with the crowd, and pushed attention away following that highlight 21/22 win. On Tuesday, she shifted the focus again.
After a team shooting half of 10% from deep and 39% overall in the first half, Mikesell scored 15 third quarter points and forward Rebeka Mikulášiková’s game-tying three turned the decibel levels up to the ceiling. As every Buckeye began finding their shots, making timely blocks and frustrating the Vols, Sheldon quietly had eight points, four assists and four steals in the second half to maintain the firm foundation she built in the first half.
Tuesday could have been a star player finding a new level to meet an occasion or this season’s Sheldon is different.
“She plays so hard,” said head coach Kevin McGuff. “I don’t think people realize how good of an athlete she is, she’s so quick up the court. She’s got a great first step. She just seemed to make some timely plays on both ends of the floor.”
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1ThomasCostello via our friends at Land-Grant Holy Land
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Joseph Scheller/Columbus Dispatch / USA TODAY NETWORK
The Dublin, Ohio guard’s defensive play is the foundation of Ohio State’s signature win against the University of Tennessee.
There was an electricity about Tuesday’s Ohio State Buckeyes game even before the clock started to run. In the weeks leading up to the game, Ohio State pushed to get their fans into the Schottenstein Center on Election Day, while Tennessee Volunteers orange stood out throughout the arena. There were pyrotechnics, a loud student section, and a small part of the Best Damn Band in the Land heightening the atmosphere. Once the game began though, it was guard Jacy Sheldon pulling in the collective attention.
The Vols started the game as expected, getting to the hoop. Tennessee featured a starting lineup including transfer student Rickea Jackson who led the SEC in points per game last season, 6-foot-6 center Tamari Key in the paint and local Columbus-area high school star Jordan Horston leading head coach Kellie Harper’s side.
Tennessee struck first, going up four points. Combine that with a tough start for the Scarlet and Gray, missing their initial three shots and earning an early turnover and foul. In response, the Schottenstein Center was reduced to the cavernous multipurpose arena that it is, instead of a sixth player in the stands. In stepped an unforgiving Sheldon.
Why unforgiving? All night Sheldon made the Vols regret any small mistake within her reach.
Down four, Sheldon earned two quick steals turned to assists to Taylor Mikesell and Taylor Thierry. The first, Sheldon anticipating a pass from Jackson beyond the arc, creating a fast break. The second, the guard making even a simple inbound pass difficult for the visitors, quickly finding the outlet to Mikesell. It was the start of a defensive performance that surprised everyone but Sheldon’s teammates.
“I’m used to Jacy being a defensive player,” said Mikesell after the 87-75 victory. “I think we’ve gotten used to playing with each other in our little press and then bringing Madison (Greene) back, it’s good to have three defensive players in the back. We got a lot of stops that helped us on our offense.”
It wasn’t necessarily a surprise that Sheldon was strong defensively. After all, she was named to the B1G All-Defensive Team in 2021-22 on top of her unanimous First Team All-B1G honor. The surprise was how Tennessee couldn’t stop it.
Sheldon met her career high in takeaways Tuesday, in the first half alone. Then in the second she doubled it. The Naismith watch list player’s eight steals came in a variety of ways. Outside of a couple anticipated passes, Sheldon dived to the ground, forced drops and wrestled the ball away from players seven to 12 inches taller.
There was no hesitation. Sheldon was laser-focused on the court, which is nothing new. After making her 1,000th career point last year in another marquee victory, against the Maryland Terrapins, Sheldon appeared annoyed when the announcer shared her accomplishment with the crowd, and pushed attention away following that highlight 21/22 win. On Tuesday, she shifted the focus again.
After a team shooting half of 10% from deep and 39% overall in the first half, Mikesell scored 15 third quarter points and forward Rebeka Mikulášiková’s game-tying three turned the decibel levels up to the ceiling. As every Buckeye began finding their shots, making timely blocks and frustrating the Vols, Sheldon quietly had eight points, four assists and four steals in the second half to maintain the firm foundation she built in the first half.
Tuesday could have been a star player finding a new level to meet an occasion or this season’s Sheldon is different.
“She plays so hard,” said head coach Kevin McGuff. “I don’t think people realize how good of an athlete she is, she’s so quick up the court. She’s got a great first step. She just seemed to make some timely plays on both ends of the floor.”
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LGHL How the College Football Playoff picture looks from here
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How the College Football Playoff picture looks from here
David M Wheeler via our friends at Land-Grant Holy Land
Visit their fantastic blog and read the full article (and so much more) here
Adam Cairns/Columbus Dispatch / USA TODAY NETWORK
The 9-0 Buckeyes are ranked No. 2, right in the thick of things.
Coming into the 2022 season – or any season, for that matter – it was easy to say of Ohio State’s team, if they win all of their games, including the Big Ten Championship game, they’re in the playoffs. Sure. The Bucks are in a power conference, play a decently strong schedule, and carry a big reputation. After nine games, that mandate of winning every game still holds. Beat Indiana, beat Maryland, beat TTUN, beat whatever the Big Ten West sends to Indianapolis, and they’re in.
We’re now well into November, and we have a much clearer look at the playoffs — who’s likely to participate and who’s not. The four unbeaten teams occupy the top four positions in the CFP rankings released Tuesday night. That seems right, but what else can we say about the playoff picture?
We can laugh at Oklahoma and Texas A&M, preseason contenders who fell by the wayside long ago. We can at least smile at the recent misfortunes of perennial playoff participants Alabama and Clemson. And when it comes to the Buckeyes, we can certainly smile at the season so far. But we’d better also cross our fingers, because there’s football left to play. Let’s look at how the playoffs stack up.
Any non-Power Five conference teams this year?
The short answer is “no.” In 2021 Cincinnati became the first such team to participate in the CFP, which has been in place since the 2014 season. Cincinnati had a multi-season history of success, they were undefeated, and they had the big win at Notre Dame. There’s nobody this year who meets those criteria, and, let’s face it, an independent (not named Notre Dame) or a team from the Sun Belt, All-American Conference, Conference USA, MAC, or Mountain West would have to be unbeaten with a jaw-dropping win against somebody.
There are currently three one-loss teams: independent Liberty, Coastal Carolina from the Sun Belt, and surprising Tulane, leading the AAC. Although the Green Wave are the only team in this week’s CFP rankings (at No. 17), all three of these teams are engaged in great seasons. For me, Liberty is the most intriguing because of its schedule and because it’s one point away from being undefeated, having lost to a ranked Wake Forest team, 37-36. Liberty has wins over BYU and Arkansas and will face Virginia Tech in a couple of weeks. Not giants, you say? True, but a legitimate schedule that makes Liberty the best of the rest.
What about a two-loss team in this year’s playoffs?
It’s never happened and I’m counting on precedent to keep the Crimson Tide out. But there is a scenario, and one that’s not really unlikely, that would place two-loss LSU in the playoffs. Let’s say that Georgia and LSU win out over their final three games (although LSU must play at Texas A&M, a team desperate, I would think, to have something redeeming to point to). The Dawgs and Tigers would meet in the SEC Championship. While we all might expect Kirby Smart’s guys to keep rolling, what if LSU beat Georgia? Surely, the SEC champs (with wins over Georgia, Alabama, and Ole Miss) are in and, I would think, Georgia too.
I don’t see any other two-loss team with any chance of making the playoffs. Unless, of course, something really weird happens to all of the frontrunners.
So, who’s likely to get in?
The SEC champ, and, if that is LSU, then Georgia as well. If Georgia wins, a one-loss Tennessee, with wins over LSU and Alabama, would also get a berth, I think. The Vols have a pretty easy final three games, with only a trip to Columbia, SC posing any threat. Without unforeseen upsets, I predict two SEC teams from among Georgia, Tennessee, and LSU. Sorry, Bama.
Oops, did I overlook Ole Miss? No. The Rebels are 8-1 (4-1 in the SEC) and play Alabama this weekend. The game is in Oxford, but I think that the Tide will win pretty big. Even if Ole Miss wins – a very big win, no question – they would lose the SEC West tiebreaker to LSU, who beat them by 25, and be shut out of the championship game. The Rebels’ only chance is to win out and have LSU stumble. Then, of course, beat Georgia for the title. As the Brits are so fond of saying, “not bloody likely.”
The winner of the Ohio State vs. Michigan game. We assume that the winner will also win the Big Ten Championship, but what if they lose to, say, Illinois or Wisconsin? I think that OSU or Michigan, with one loss, still gets into the playoffs unless they somehow get blown out in Indianapolis.
That leaves only one spot available for the other three Power Five conferences (and maybe the loser of the Ohio State-Michigan game). TCU is the only unbeaten in this group, and if they win out, they’re in the playoffs. An undefeated conference champ is in. The Frogs have a tough stretch, however, playing at Texas (a team clearly on the rise) and then at home against Baylor and Iowa State. I think that they’ll lose to Texas and maybe one of the others. A one-loss TCU isn’t that appealing. While their strength of schedule is a very respectable No. 42, their wins over then-ranked Oklahoma, Kansas, Oklahoma State, and Kansas State don’t look as impressive as they once did.
Ah, Clemson. Can Dabo sneak in once again? Although they looked bad against Notre Dame and barely beat Syracuse, Florida State, and Wake Forest, I fear that Clemson with one loss and an ACC Championship trophy would get into the playoffs. But it won’t be easy for this not particularly strong team. While their final three games are all at home, Louisville, Miami (FL), and South Carolina won’t be cakewalks. Clemson could also lose to North Carolina in the ACC Championship game.
What about the Tar Heels? Well, they’re sitting at 8-1, 5-0 in the conference. Their one loss was to Notre Dame, 45-32, but they haven’t really got a top-quality win. UNC, too, has a pretty tough finish to their season: at Wake Forest, Georgia Tech in Chapel Hill, and NC State also at home. Winning those three and then beating Clemson for the title would put them in probably. In short, they still have a shot.
The PAC-12 is, as usual, a bit of a mess. No one is undefeated. Oregon, USC, and UCLA are all 8-1; Utah is 7-2. All are good teams. And they’ve all got tough games to go. UCLA has the best chance, with the easiest schedule. If they beat USC, they could claim that fourth playoff slot. The Trojans, on the other hand, would have to beat UCLA and Notre Dame. USC’s one loss was to Utah, by one point. Oregon closes out the regular season against two ranked teams, No. 13 Utah and No. 25 Washington, both at home, and then at rival Oregon State. I wouldn’t be surprised if, when the dust clears out west, there aren’t any PAC-12 teams remaining with a single loss. Oregon is the best of the teams, with its 45-30 win over the Bruins.
Here’s my take, with current CFP rankings in parentheses.
Playoff prediction
1. Georgia (1)
2. Ohio State (2)
3. Tennessee (5)
4. Oregon (6)
But nobody wants to see a replay of the Georgia-Oregon game (49-3, if you don’t remember), so I going to change it.
Second playoff prediction
1. Georgia (1)
2. Ohio State (2)
3. Tennessee (5)
4. Clemson (10), with Oregon (6), Michigan (3), USC (8), in that order, as the next likely teams in
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David M Wheeler via our friends at Land-Grant Holy Land
Visit their fantastic blog and read the full article (and so much more) here
Adam Cairns/Columbus Dispatch / USA TODAY NETWORK
The 9-0 Buckeyes are ranked No. 2, right in the thick of things.
Coming into the 2022 season – or any season, for that matter – it was easy to say of Ohio State’s team, if they win all of their games, including the Big Ten Championship game, they’re in the playoffs. Sure. The Bucks are in a power conference, play a decently strong schedule, and carry a big reputation. After nine games, that mandate of winning every game still holds. Beat Indiana, beat Maryland, beat TTUN, beat whatever the Big Ten West sends to Indianapolis, and they’re in.
We’re now well into November, and we have a much clearer look at the playoffs — who’s likely to participate and who’s not. The four unbeaten teams occupy the top four positions in the CFP rankings released Tuesday night. That seems right, but what else can we say about the playoff picture?
We can laugh at Oklahoma and Texas A&M, preseason contenders who fell by the wayside long ago. We can at least smile at the recent misfortunes of perennial playoff participants Alabama and Clemson. And when it comes to the Buckeyes, we can certainly smile at the season so far. But we’d better also cross our fingers, because there’s football left to play. Let’s look at how the playoffs stack up.
Any non-Power Five conference teams this year?
The short answer is “no.” In 2021 Cincinnati became the first such team to participate in the CFP, which has been in place since the 2014 season. Cincinnati had a multi-season history of success, they were undefeated, and they had the big win at Notre Dame. There’s nobody this year who meets those criteria, and, let’s face it, an independent (not named Notre Dame) or a team from the Sun Belt, All-American Conference, Conference USA, MAC, or Mountain West would have to be unbeaten with a jaw-dropping win against somebody.
There are currently three one-loss teams: independent Liberty, Coastal Carolina from the Sun Belt, and surprising Tulane, leading the AAC. Although the Green Wave are the only team in this week’s CFP rankings (at No. 17), all three of these teams are engaged in great seasons. For me, Liberty is the most intriguing because of its schedule and because it’s one point away from being undefeated, having lost to a ranked Wake Forest team, 37-36. Liberty has wins over BYU and Arkansas and will face Virginia Tech in a couple of weeks. Not giants, you say? True, but a legitimate schedule that makes Liberty the best of the rest.
What about a two-loss team in this year’s playoffs?
It’s never happened and I’m counting on precedent to keep the Crimson Tide out. But there is a scenario, and one that’s not really unlikely, that would place two-loss LSU in the playoffs. Let’s say that Georgia and LSU win out over their final three games (although LSU must play at Texas A&M, a team desperate, I would think, to have something redeeming to point to). The Dawgs and Tigers would meet in the SEC Championship. While we all might expect Kirby Smart’s guys to keep rolling, what if LSU beat Georgia? Surely, the SEC champs (with wins over Georgia, Alabama, and Ole Miss) are in and, I would think, Georgia too.
I don’t see any other two-loss team with any chance of making the playoffs. Unless, of course, something really weird happens to all of the frontrunners.
So, who’s likely to get in?
The SEC champ, and, if that is LSU, then Georgia as well. If Georgia wins, a one-loss Tennessee, with wins over LSU and Alabama, would also get a berth, I think. The Vols have a pretty easy final three games, with only a trip to Columbia, SC posing any threat. Without unforeseen upsets, I predict two SEC teams from among Georgia, Tennessee, and LSU. Sorry, Bama.
Oops, did I overlook Ole Miss? No. The Rebels are 8-1 (4-1 in the SEC) and play Alabama this weekend. The game is in Oxford, but I think that the Tide will win pretty big. Even if Ole Miss wins – a very big win, no question – they would lose the SEC West tiebreaker to LSU, who beat them by 25, and be shut out of the championship game. The Rebels’ only chance is to win out and have LSU stumble. Then, of course, beat Georgia for the title. As the Brits are so fond of saying, “not bloody likely.”
The winner of the Ohio State vs. Michigan game. We assume that the winner will also win the Big Ten Championship, but what if they lose to, say, Illinois or Wisconsin? I think that OSU or Michigan, with one loss, still gets into the playoffs unless they somehow get blown out in Indianapolis.
That leaves only one spot available for the other three Power Five conferences (and maybe the loser of the Ohio State-Michigan game). TCU is the only unbeaten in this group, and if they win out, they’re in the playoffs. An undefeated conference champ is in. The Frogs have a tough stretch, however, playing at Texas (a team clearly on the rise) and then at home against Baylor and Iowa State. I think that they’ll lose to Texas and maybe one of the others. A one-loss TCU isn’t that appealing. While their strength of schedule is a very respectable No. 42, their wins over then-ranked Oklahoma, Kansas, Oklahoma State, and Kansas State don’t look as impressive as they once did.
Ah, Clemson. Can Dabo sneak in once again? Although they looked bad against Notre Dame and barely beat Syracuse, Florida State, and Wake Forest, I fear that Clemson with one loss and an ACC Championship trophy would get into the playoffs. But it won’t be easy for this not particularly strong team. While their final three games are all at home, Louisville, Miami (FL), and South Carolina won’t be cakewalks. Clemson could also lose to North Carolina in the ACC Championship game.
What about the Tar Heels? Well, they’re sitting at 8-1, 5-0 in the conference. Their one loss was to Notre Dame, 45-32, but they haven’t really got a top-quality win. UNC, too, has a pretty tough finish to their season: at Wake Forest, Georgia Tech in Chapel Hill, and NC State also at home. Winning those three and then beating Clemson for the title would put them in probably. In short, they still have a shot.
The PAC-12 is, as usual, a bit of a mess. No one is undefeated. Oregon, USC, and UCLA are all 8-1; Utah is 7-2. All are good teams. And they’ve all got tough games to go. UCLA has the best chance, with the easiest schedule. If they beat USC, they could claim that fourth playoff slot. The Trojans, on the other hand, would have to beat UCLA and Notre Dame. USC’s one loss was to Utah, by one point. Oregon closes out the regular season against two ranked teams, No. 13 Utah and No. 25 Washington, both at home, and then at rival Oregon State. I wouldn’t be surprised if, when the dust clears out west, there aren’t any PAC-12 teams remaining with a single loss. Oregon is the best of the teams, with its 45-30 win over the Bruins.
Here’s my take, with current CFP rankings in parentheses.
Playoff prediction
1. Georgia (1)
2. Ohio State (2)
3. Tennessee (5)
4. Oregon (6)
But nobody wants to see a replay of the Georgia-Oregon game (49-3, if you don’t remember), so I going to change it.
Second playoff prediction
1. Georgia (1)
2. Ohio State (2)
3. Tennessee (5)
4. Clemson (10), with Oregon (6), Michigan (3), USC (8), in that order, as the next likely teams in
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