Game Preview: No. 9 Ohio State women’s basketball vs. Iowa
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After coming out on top in an overtime nail biter against Minnesota, the Buckeyes continue their homestand looking to end a six-game Iowa win streak.
The No. 9
Ohio State women’s basketball team (21-3, 10-3 B1G) bounced back from their two-game skid out west with an overtime win over Minnesota last Thursday. Now, they get ready to welcome Iowa to the Schottenstein Center as they head into the final five games of the regular season.
The Hawkeyes (18-7, 8-6 B1G), for their part, are hot on a six-game win streak — which includes a 7-point win over No. 4 USC — as they head to Columbus. Most recently, they took down Rutgers, 55-43, in Iowa City.
The teams faced off twice last season, with each team claiming victory on their own court. Ohio State won, 100-92, in an overtime victory in Jan. 2024, while Iowa took their March meeting, 93-83.
Preview
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If Ohio State struggled to shoot the ball against UCLA and USC, they found their lights-out ability again when it counted — in overtime of their nail-biter against Minnesota, improving Ohio State’s home record to 12-0 on the season.
Against the Bruins and the Trojans, the Buckeyes shot just 29.4 percent from the field, compared to 59.3 percent against Minnesota. In overtime, the Buckeyes shot a whopping 75 percent from the floor.
Still, it wasn’t all roses. When the Buckeyes were on, they were hot. They started the game 13-of-17, capitalizing nicely off turnovers to add points, including a three from freshman Ava Watson to end the first quarter, which she followed by also netting OSU’s first three buckets in the second.
Things cooled off, though, with the Buckeyes shooting just 2-for-8 for the rest of the quarter: One jumper from Ajae Petty and one from Cotie McMahon, plus two made-frees for McMahon, giving the Buckeyes a narrow 35-30 lead at half.
After the break, Watson was still hot offensively, adding five more points in the third quarter, while Jaloni Cambridge got going defensively, adding three points and an assist for the Buckeyes off three steals. At the end of the third, the Buckeyes held a six-point lead, but by halfway through the fourth quarter, they’d extended that lead to 14.
Then, what looked like it was going to be a comfortable win against the Golden Gophers became anything but, with the Buckeyes getting outscored 17-3 and nearly crumbling. A three from Minnesota’s Grace Grocholski in the final 10 seconds sent the game into overtime.
Then, the Ohio State offense turned back on, flipping back to the top-notch form we’ve come to expect from this team. Though Minnesota kept things neck-and-neck, a huge block from Elsa Lemmilä kept the Golden Gophers from tying the game, sealing the Buckeyes’ 87-84 win.
The Buckeyes struggled to rebound, getting outrebounded 35-27 by Minnesota, who managed 10 more second-chance points than OSU. But what they lacked in rebounding, Ohio State made up for in steals, netting 13 to Minnesota’s four and scoring 30 points off Minnesota’s miscues.
McMahon, who leads the team in scoring this season with an average of 16.7 points per game, also led the team against Minnesota with 25 points, 6 assists and 4 rebounds. Watson added 16 points and shot 4-of-4 from three-point range.
Taylor Thierry and freshman Jaloni Cambridge each added 10 points, and Cambridge was also good for a career-high six steals. Cambridge leads the team on the season with an average of 4.0 assists per game, while Petty is the leading rebounder with 6.8 per game.
Against Iowa, the Buckeyes won’t have as much room for error, so they’ll need to get hot and stay hot if they want to remain undefeated in Columbus.
In their first season under head coach Jan Jensen (who has been with the program for 25 years in other roles) and their first without former sensation Caitlin Clark, who now plays in the WNBA, Iowa has had its share of ups and downs. But recently? It’s been up a lot more than it has been down.
After starting the season 12-2, the Hawkeyes went on a five-game losing streak before they found their footing. But since losing on the road to Oregon, 50-49, on Jan. 19, the Hawkeyes have remained unbeaten for almost a month, including a marquee win over No. 4 USC, 76-69.
That’s thanks in large part to guard Lucy Olsen, the transfer out of Villanova who has been spectacular this year, especially over the last month for the Hawkeyes. Since their win streak started, Olsen is averaging 22.8 points, 5.5 assists and 3.8 rebounds per game.
Against Nebraska last Monday, Feb. 10, Olsen was good for 32 points, seven assists, and six rebounds—her best performance as a Hawkeye. It was the second time an Iowa player recorded 30+ points, 5+ assists, and 5+ rebounds in a single game since 2009 (the first was, of course, Clark).
Most recently, the Hawkeyes welcomed Rutgers to Iowa City, and while Rutgers led at the end of the first quarter, Iowa took the lead early in the second quarter and never looked back. They won the game, 55-43, shooting 37 percent from the field and 30.4 percent from 3-point territory.
Olsen put up 27 points, including 4-of-5 from long range, and she’s not the only Hawkeye Ohio State needs to keep their eye on: Sydney Affolter has also put up double figures in each of the last five games.
On the season, Olsen, along with forwards Hannah Stuelke and Addison O’Grady, have double-figure scoring averages (17.4, 12.9 and 11.0 ppg, respectively).
The team is shooting 46.3 percent from the field (44.6 percent against conference opponents—the fourth-best in the Big Ten).
Defensively, this could be a battle, with both teams posing a turnover threat. Against Rutgers, Iowa forced seven turnovers and two shot clock violations in the first quarter alone, along with five more turnovers in the final quarter of the game.
Projected Starters
Ohio State
G- Jaloni Cambridge
G- Chance Gray
G- Taylor Thierry
F- Cotie McMahon
F- Ajae Petty
Lineup Notes
- McGuff has used three different starting lineups this season, compared to just one game with a different lineup in 2023-24. However, he has used the same starting five in each of the last six games.
- McMahon, Cambridge, Thierry and Gray all boast double-digit scoring averages, while Petty leads the team in rebounds.
- Against Minnesota, McMahon, Cambridge and Thierry each put up double figures.
- Last week, McMahon was named to the Wooden Award’s late midseason top 20 list and the Naismith Trophy Midseason Team.
Iowa
G- Sydney Affolter
G- Kylie Feuerbach
G- Taylor McCabe
G- Lucy Olsen
F- Hannah Stuelke
Lineup Notes
- Iowa has used six starting lineups this year, but they have used the same starting five since Jan. 28, which was the second game of their six-game win streak.
- Olsen and Stuelke are both averaging double-digit scoring this season.
- Over the last six games, Affolter has shot 62 percent from 3-point range. She also leads the team in assists and steals.
Prediction
Jim Dedmon-Imagn Images
Though a loss won’t rob either team of its tournament hopes, it’s an inopportune time in the season to lose any game. Each game carries with it seeding implications that impact the path to victory.
The Hawkeyes have perhaps more to gain than the Buckeyes do to lose, as another marquee win could boost them higher than the 9-seed they’re currently projected at, especially as Iowa has to follow this game with a matchup against No. 1 UCLA. The Buckeyes, for comparison, are projected to enter the tournament with a No. 3 seed.
The Buckeyes have played well at home this year, but the Hawkeyes have hit their stride at the exact right point in the season, setting the teams up for a battle in Columbus.
In recent road games, the Hawkeyes have started strong, giving them momentum that has powered them through to victory. They built double-digit leads early against Minnesota, Washington and Oregon, while they led by as many as nine at Nebraska and Illinois. And while the Hawkeyes went on to lose at Nebraska, Illinois and Oregon, the hot-and-cold nature of OSU’s shooting of late could leave the door cracked for an Iowa win if the Buckeyes don’t quickly take control offensively.
In their last outing, the Hawkeyes sputtered against Rutgers (though this was a home game, compared to the aforementioned results on the road). But while they were able to recover in the second quarter against the Scarlet Knights, it’s unlikely they’ll have that same margin of error against the Buckeyes.
Then again, this game might not come down to offensive prowess at all. Both teams have done well defensively, and if Iowa can contain McMahon or the Buckeyes can contain Olsen, that shifts the game entirely.
Both teams will need to force turnovers—and convert those turnovers into points. And the Buckeyes will need to do better on the glass than they did against Minnesota, as second-chance points could be a difference-maker.
Ultimately, Iowa should keep this one close, and it could be a nail-biter, but if the Buckeyes can shut the Hawkeyes down early and execute well, OSU should be able to walk away with a slight edge.
How to Watch
Date: Monday, Feb. 17, 2025
Time: 12:00 p.m. ET
Where: Schottenstein Center, Columbus, Ohio
Watch: FOX
LGHL Score Prediction: 77-72, Ohio State Buckeyes
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