LGHL Ohio State is still No. 1 in the College Football Playoff rankings, but how long can that last?
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Ohio State is still No. 1 in the College Football Playoff rankings, but how long can that last?
Matt Tamanini via our friends at Land-Grant Holy Land
Visit their fantastic blog and read the full article (and so much more) here
Photo by Joe Robbins/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
The defending champion Georgia Bulldogs are nipping at the Buckeyes’ heels.
Whether you think that the Ohio State Buckeyes are the best team in the country or not — objectively, they are not — they are the No. 1 team in the country thanks to the second iteration of the 2023 College Football Playoff rankings. For the second week in a row, the committee has deemed OSU’s body of work to be better than anyone else in college football.
While there are different organizations that measure the same thing, we will use ESPN’s metrics for this discussion, since the worldwide leader in sports is the home for the CFP. But ESPN’s count, the Buckeyes have the No. 1 strength of record (SOR) in FBS. This number calculates what the average top-25 team would do against a team’s specific schedule. Of the other teams in currently contention for the No. 1 CFP spot — namely the unbeaten teams — Washington is No. 2, Florida State is No. 3, Georgia is No. 7, and Michigan is No. 8.
Another one of the metrics to keep an eye on is the more straightforward strength of schedule (SOS). This is where Ohio State’s advantage slipped from the first week of the rankings, and likely could even more this week. Heading into the first CFP rankings, OSU was No. 15 in SOS, with Alabama being the only playoff contender in the top 30 at No. 8.
Thanks to losses by Notre Dame and Wisconsin last weekend, the Buckeyes’ SOS ranking fell to No. 20. While the Tide remained at No. 8 many of the other contenders — especially the unbeaten teams — are still a ways back. Washington is No. 41, FSU is 58, UGA is 90, and the Mitten State Cheaters are No. 111 out of 133 teams in FBS. However, last week, the Bulldogs beat then-No. 12 Missouri and have No. 9 Ole Miss on the schedule this week and No. 14 Tennessee the following week.
Even if everything else remains status quo, the combination of three straight top-15 wins will almost certainly skyrocket UGA up the SOS rankings and potentially past OSU in the CFP rankings heading into the regular season finale. With Penn State, Maryland, and the Buckeyes remaining this month, the Harboys have the top strength of schedule remaining — UGA is No. 3, Ohio State is No. 7, Washington is No. 10, and Florida State is 44.
While anything can happen in any given game, if we assume that the top five teams all remain unbeaten until Nov. 25 when Ohio State and the Ann Arbor Weasels face off, there is a distinct possibility that the Buckeyes will go into The Game as the No. 2 team — or potentially No. 3, depending on how the games play out.
Partially because of the superior competition that they have faced this season and partially because of the specific style of play that this team has experienced, for many casual onlookers, the Buckeyes might be winning on the scoreboard, but aren’t necessarily doing so in the eye test. And while the College Football Playoff committee does keep objective metrics at the center of their evaluations, they also base their decisions — especially when it comes to distinguishing between exceptionally similar teams — on what they actually see on the field.
Georgia beat Missouri last Saturday 30-21, a solid nine-point victory over a top-15 team. However, the way that game was played seems to have given the Dawgs far more cred in the college football community than Ohio State’s eight-point 20-12 win over then-No. 7 Penn State just a few weeks before. So, even if UGA just wins its games against Ole Miss and Tennessee, while the Buckeyes are playing a lackluster slate of Michigan State and Minnesota, I would honestly be surprised if the defending champs didn’t jump OSU.
Then there is the curious case of the sign-stealing culprits. If the Corn and Blue beat the Nits in a more convincing fashion on Saturday in Happy Valley than OSU did in Columbus, it could give the committee reason to jump the Meerkats over the Bucks if Ryan Day’s squad plays with its Spartan and Golden Gopher food.
So while I think that Miss-Again’s woeful strength of schedule — even after playing Penn State — will probably keep them out of the top two spots assuming OSU and UGA remain undefeated, it will be interesting to note how the committee talks about the Fighting Ferrets following this weekend.
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Photo by Ben Jackson/Getty Images
Frankly, no, I don’t think that they will be. While I presume that the Buckeyes will still be undefeated, I am going to guess that Georgia will be as well; although I feel a lot less comfortable in projecting that than I do with OSU. With three straight weeks against legitimate opponents, I do think that the committee will eventually give the benefit of the doubt the the Bulldogs, especially if they look strong in all three theoretical victories.
However, barring an epic collapse by Ohio State, I don’t see Michigan, Florida State, or Washington having enough quality opportunities to pass the Buckeyes. Perhaps the Skunk Bears could if they obliterate Penn State and Maryland, considering those would be common opponents between the two squads, but to this point, the best team that both UM and OSU have played was Rutgers and the Pompous Princes only beat the Scarlet Knights 31-7 in the Big House, while OSU won 35-16 in Piscataway. So, if things remain fairly consistent, the Winged Helmet Wingnuts likely won’t have enough juice to jump the Buckeyes... until they actually face off on the field, of course.
While it would be fun for OSU to stay No. 1 throughout the regular season and into the playoffs, if they do drop behind Georgia heading into the regular season finale, being as high as they are now does have its benefits. In the absolute worst-case scenario, if Ohio State loses its rivalry game for the third year in a row, being No. 1 or No. 2 in the country going in, does keep them as high as humanly possible in the pecking order should there be a spot available for a one-loss team to get into the CFP field.
We saw OSU take advantage of that situation last year, and they could do it again in 2023. Obviously, a lot of things would still need to happen for the loser of The Game to get back in, but being in the top two before a loss is a heck of a lot better than being No. 5 or 6.
Ultimately, the Buckeyes are in as good of a position to get back to the College Football Playoffs as they could possibly be, whether they win out or not. The simplest path to the tournament is to beat Michigan State, Minnesota, and TTUN, but if they stumble.
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Matt Tamanini via our friends at Land-Grant Holy Land
Visit their fantastic blog and read the full article (and so much more) here
Photo by Joe Robbins/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
The defending champion Georgia Bulldogs are nipping at the Buckeyes’ heels.
Whether you think that the Ohio State Buckeyes are the best team in the country or not — objectively, they are not — they are the No. 1 team in the country thanks to the second iteration of the 2023 College Football Playoff rankings. For the second week in a row, the committee has deemed OSU’s body of work to be better than anyone else in college football.
While there are different organizations that measure the same thing, we will use ESPN’s metrics for this discussion, since the worldwide leader in sports is the home for the CFP. But ESPN’s count, the Buckeyes have the No. 1 strength of record (SOR) in FBS. This number calculates what the average top-25 team would do against a team’s specific schedule. Of the other teams in currently contention for the No. 1 CFP spot — namely the unbeaten teams — Washington is No. 2, Florida State is No. 3, Georgia is No. 7, and Michigan is No. 8.
Another one of the metrics to keep an eye on is the more straightforward strength of schedule (SOS). This is where Ohio State’s advantage slipped from the first week of the rankings, and likely could even more this week. Heading into the first CFP rankings, OSU was No. 15 in SOS, with Alabama being the only playoff contender in the top 30 at No. 8.
Thanks to losses by Notre Dame and Wisconsin last weekend, the Buckeyes’ SOS ranking fell to No. 20. While the Tide remained at No. 8 many of the other contenders — especially the unbeaten teams — are still a ways back. Washington is No. 41, FSU is 58, UGA is 90, and the Mitten State Cheaters are No. 111 out of 133 teams in FBS. However, last week, the Bulldogs beat then-No. 12 Missouri and have No. 9 Ole Miss on the schedule this week and No. 14 Tennessee the following week.
Even if everything else remains status quo, the combination of three straight top-15 wins will almost certainly skyrocket UGA up the SOS rankings and potentially past OSU in the CFP rankings heading into the regular season finale. With Penn State, Maryland, and the Buckeyes remaining this month, the Harboys have the top strength of schedule remaining — UGA is No. 3, Ohio State is No. 7, Washington is No. 10, and Florida State is 44.
While anything can happen in any given game, if we assume that the top five teams all remain unbeaten until Nov. 25 when Ohio State and the Ann Arbor Weasels face off, there is a distinct possibility that the Buckeyes will go into The Game as the No. 2 team — or potentially No. 3, depending on how the games play out.
Partially because of the superior competition that they have faced this season and partially because of the specific style of play that this team has experienced, for many casual onlookers, the Buckeyes might be winning on the scoreboard, but aren’t necessarily doing so in the eye test. And while the College Football Playoff committee does keep objective metrics at the center of their evaluations, they also base their decisions — especially when it comes to distinguishing between exceptionally similar teams — on what they actually see on the field.
Georgia beat Missouri last Saturday 30-21, a solid nine-point victory over a top-15 team. However, the way that game was played seems to have given the Dawgs far more cred in the college football community than Ohio State’s eight-point 20-12 win over then-No. 7 Penn State just a few weeks before. So, even if UGA just wins its games against Ole Miss and Tennessee, while the Buckeyes are playing a lackluster slate of Michigan State and Minnesota, I would honestly be surprised if the defending champs didn’t jump OSU.
Then there is the curious case of the sign-stealing culprits. If the Corn and Blue beat the Nits in a more convincing fashion on Saturday in Happy Valley than OSU did in Columbus, it could give the committee reason to jump the Meerkats over the Bucks if Ryan Day’s squad plays with its Spartan and Golden Gopher food.
So while I think that Miss-Again’s woeful strength of schedule — even after playing Penn State — will probably keep them out of the top two spots assuming OSU and UGA remain undefeated, it will be interesting to note how the committee talks about the Fighting Ferrets following this weekend.
What Are the Strength of Schedule and Strength of Records for the College Football Playoff Contenders?
Will Ohio State Be the No. 1 team in the College Football Playoff rankings heading into The Game?
Frankly, no, I don’t think that they will be. While I presume that the Buckeyes will still be undefeated, I am going to guess that Georgia will be as well; although I feel a lot less comfortable in projecting that than I do with OSU. With three straight weeks against legitimate opponents, I do think that the committee will eventually give the benefit of the doubt the the Bulldogs, especially if they look strong in all three theoretical victories.
However, barring an epic collapse by Ohio State, I don’t see Michigan, Florida State, or Washington having enough quality opportunities to pass the Buckeyes. Perhaps the Skunk Bears could if they obliterate Penn State and Maryland, considering those would be common opponents between the two squads, but to this point, the best team that both UM and OSU have played was Rutgers and the Pompous Princes only beat the Scarlet Knights 31-7 in the Big House, while OSU won 35-16 in Piscataway. So, if things remain fairly consistent, the Winged Helmet Wingnuts likely won’t have enough juice to jump the Buckeyes... until they actually face off on the field, of course.
While it would be fun for OSU to stay No. 1 throughout the regular season and into the playoffs, if they do drop behind Georgia heading into the regular season finale, being as high as they are now does have its benefits. In the absolute worst-case scenario, if Ohio State loses its rivalry game for the third year in a row, being No. 1 or No. 2 in the country going in, does keep them as high as humanly possible in the pecking order should there be a spot available for a one-loss team to get into the CFP field.
We saw OSU take advantage of that situation last year, and they could do it again in 2023. Obviously, a lot of things would still need to happen for the loser of The Game to get back in, but being in the top two before a loss is a heck of a lot better than being No. 5 or 6.
Ultimately, the Buckeyes are in as good of a position to get back to the College Football Playoffs as they could possibly be, whether they win out or not. The simplest path to the tournament is to beat Michigan State, Minnesota, and TTUN, but if they stumble.
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