Five Storylines: No. 12 Ohio State women’s basketball welcomes No. 21 Illinois
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The Buckeyes have the Illini’s number in recent years, but how does a new look Ohio State match up, and will Cotie McMahon play?
It’s been a long non-conference slate for
Ohio State women’s basketball without a power conference opponent. After seven games, the Buckeyes are a perfect 7-0, with minor scrapes to show for it from a trip to Belmont. Aside from that narrow victory, it’s been mostly smooth sailing for the Scarlet and Gray. That changes Sunday when the No. 21
Illinois Fighting Illini come to town.
While the game only teases the Big Ten calendar, with non-conference games returning on the other side of the afternoon matchup, it gives a glimpse into who this Ohio State team will be once the competition increases.
Here are five things to watch this weekend.
Cotie McMahon: In or Out?
The last four games of the season have been without star forward Cotie McMahon. Picking up a lower leg injury on her right leg in practice, McMahon’s been in a boot and supporting the Buckeyes from the sidelines.
On Wednesday, Ohio State showed a first glimpse of McMahon’s possible return.
#Buckeyes Cotie McMahon practicing after missing the last 4 games for Ohio State. Kevin McGuff said McMahon is still “day-to-day” following a right lower-leg injury OSU faces No. 21 Illinois on Sunday
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Brianna Mac Kay (@brimackay15.bsky.social) 2024-12-04T18:41:53.281Z
While the visuals elicit excitement for Ohio State fans, it’s a sign of progress, not a sign of an imminent return.
“She’s in practice and still kind of day-to-day but she’s made significant progress so I think we’ll be in a good position with her,” said head coach Kevin McGuff.
Should McMahon continue to be out on Sunday, which won’t be released by the conference until Sunday afternoon, Ohio State will continue with guard Kennedy Cambridge playing in the third guard role, with Taylor Thierry playing forward.
Just because McMahon isn’t on the court, doesn’t mean the players on the Buckeyes don’t benefit from having the forward around. In McMahon’s junior season, she’s grown into a leader on the team and brings the same desire and passion off the bench.
“When we coming out the game, even on timeouts when she feels that we’re not living up to the standard or playing as hard as we can,” said forward Ajae Petty. “She’s always talking and being encouraging and different things like that.”
Ohio State would rather have the upperclassmen on the court, especially against an Illinois group that’s full of seniority of their own. The Fighting Illini regularly start five seniors, and three are in their fifth years.
Consistency Needed
An element of playing the teams on Ohio State’s schedule is running into the occasional lull.
After the tip, teams bring intensity and their game plan to the Buckeyes, and Ohio State matches it. In most games this year, they’ve exceeded it, creating large deficits in the first half that ultimately end in victories.
Coming out of the halftime locker room, opponents bring a renewed intensity and have run into Buckeye teams who are sitting on sometimes leads over 20 points, which turns into opponents battling back. Maybe not in terms of erasing deficits, but going on sustained runs that take Ohio State time to break through.
In six of seven games this season, opponents have their best scoring quarters in the third quarter.
Against Utah State on Friday, Ohio State allowed 18 first-half points, and then 17 in the third quarter. Against Old Dominion on Thanksgiving day, it was a staunch defensive performance allowing 14 first-half points with the Monarchs scoring 18 in the third.
This stretches back through the non-conference schedule, with four opponents either matching or outscoring their entire first-half productivity in the 10 minutes following halftime.
I think we’ve shown that we can be really good but I still don’t think we’re anywhere close to what we’re capable of being and I think a lot of it has to do with consistency,” said McGuff. “It’s just we have a lot of new people where what we do is new to them and so we look good at times but we don’t sustain it for as long as we have in years past with older more mature teams.”
Ohio State’s eventually knocked off the cobwebs and hit their stride to recover from any sort of letdown, but the game against the Belmont Bruins shows it takes longer with a group who’s only played together for a few months.
The Buckeyes couldn’t string together an effective offense and when that third-quarter slump hit, there was only a four-point lead that the Bruins turned into a nine-point fourth-quarter lead.
Guard Jaloni Cambridge and the Scarlet and Gray showed that high level of talent to erase it and come away with the victory, but they won’t have the same luxury against Big Ten teams.
Now, the history between Ohio State and Illinois shows that even mature teams can go down to this side. In the 22-23 season, the Buckeyes needed a 17-point comeback in the second half to come away with the victory. Can this new iteration afford to allow the same kind of deficit to build and expect to win?
Containing Kendall Bostic
The Buckeyes have mostly had their way with Illinois over the past four seasons, but regardless of the final score, forward Kendall Bostic has a great game.
Here are Bostic’s stat lines against Ohio State over the past three seasons:
Jan. 6, 2022: 11 points/16 rebounds
Feb. 14, 2022: 12 points/16 rebounds
Jan. 8, 2023: 27 points/15 rebounds
Jan. 25, 2024: 13 points/18 rebounds
To put it lightly — no one’s stopped Bostic on the Buckeyes.
Bostic averages more rebounds per game against Ohio State than any of the other 16 teams in the Big Ten but the Buckeyes might finally have the personnel to slow her down.
Combining graduate forward Ajae Petty and freshman Elsa Lemmilä has given Ohio State a presence inside that they haven’t seen since the days of Aaliyah Patty and Dorka Juhász. Petty and Lemmilä average 7.7 rebounds and 7.4 rebounds collectively, with no Ohio State player averaging more than seven in the past three seasons.
Offensively, Petty’s come into her own over the past week of Buckeye games, scoring a season-high in points against Old Dominion (24) with her first double-double in scarlet and gray. Petty followed it up with a 19-point, nine-rebound game against the Utah State Aggies.
For Lemmilä, the 6-foot-6 center is still working on consistently offensively but defensively uses her size to her advantage, sitting seventh in the Big Ten with 16 blocks, all coming from a bench role.
Between the two, the Buckeyes rarely lack size on the court but how will they respond in a big game situation like facing their first conference opponent of the season?
The stage shouldn’t be too big for Petty, who spent last year starting every game of a tough SEC slate of games.
“Knowing that I’ve played against other talented players and knowing what I can do. I think that’s the biggest thing, just knowing that I’m capable of playing against those top players,” said Petty. “The SEC is a tough conference, but the Big Ten’s a really tough conference as well.”
Last season, the biggest matchup in the post was against the
LSU Tigers and their now-
WNBA forward Angel Reese. Kentucky lost, but Petty had 10 first-half rebounds playing against Reese, and outrebounded the star 15-14.
Matthew Hinton-Imagn Images
That was on a Wildcats team that struggled all season, and not an Ohio State side that has others that can get involved in defending the paint like Taylor Thierry and the older Cambridge sister.
Guard Battle
While the size and strength of the Illini interior are formidable, the play on the perimeter makes Illinois a team to be reckoned with.
“Got great guard play they really really experienced on the perimeter,” said McGuff. “Makira Cook is incredible I really really love her game and in Genesis [Bryant] also really really talented, so I like their talent level I love their guard play. They play really hard, they’re well organized and so we’re certainly gonna have our hands full.”
The effectiveness of the Cook, Bryant, and Adalia McKenzie trio has varied against Ohio State in the last two seasons, but it’s a different group of guards going up against this experienced side.
In the past two seasons, the trio started 180 games for the Illini. Ohio State’s likely starting duo, if McMahon is out, has 67 NCAA starts, and 66 of them come from shooting guard Chance Gray.
McGuff has No. 1 point guard Jaloni Cambridge, Gray, and the older Cambridge. The younger Cambridge is 12th in the nation in defensive rating (62.6) and leads the Big Ten with 6.4 percent of her defensive possessions ending in a steal for the freshman.
Since starting four games ago, Kennedy Cambridge averages 7.3 points, 4.3 rebounds, and 2.3 steals per game, showing the NCAA the formidable defensive duo the Cambridge sisters bring to the game.
The idea that it would take time for the Buckeyes full-court press to adjust to the absence of Jacy Sheldon and Celeste Taylor may have been exaggerated when comparing the two sides.
Looking only at games against non-power conference schools, the perimeter defense of the 24-25 Buckeyes averages 25.7 turnovers forced, compared to 24.7 from last year’s group. Ohio State is fourth in the country in forcing turnovers, and first in the Big Ten.
Photo by Kirk Irwin/Getty Images
How will that translate to the conference schedule? The trio in Illinois are slow to start their scoring clip this year, all shooting below their averages from last season, but that’s from a small sample size, including a tough shooting day against the
Kentucky Wildcats.
Illinois combined to shoot 26.7 percent from the field, with Bryant especially struggling, going 0-of-8 from the floor and scoring one point. McKenzie picked up some of the scoring, leading the Illini with 18 points, but the defensive prowess shown by Ohio State early means the three need to be on their game.
Will their experience playing together, and years in the NCAA, give them what they need to rebound from that game against the Wildcats? All three are playing in their final seasons of eligibility, with none of them beating Ohio State. Barring a matchup in the postseason, Sunday is the last time for Illinois to stop a 12-game losing streak to the Scarlet and Gray, meaning an even more motivated side is expected.
Big Ten Begins
The ultimate question entering Sunday surrounds the Buckeyes' ability to beat a ranked Big Ten team. Thierry’s been in this position of playing through mid-major after mid-major before facing a team that truly challenges Ohio State over the past three seasons.
“I think we’re pretty prepared. We’ve been coming in practice with a mindset to get better and improve our mistakes from previous games,” said Thierry. “So, I think we’re just excited to get started and get ready with this Big Ten play.”
It’s not only the players. It might sound crazy, but beating teams by 30 to 40 points loses its excitement after a while. Belmont gave some heart palpitations for Buckeye fans, but no other game this season will carry with it the heavy weight of expectations like Sunday’s matchup will.
Within the walls of the program, the expectations are always high, but from the outside looking in, it’s hard to know what will happen when the two teams meet up at the Schottenstein Center.
Illinois has the experience, played two power conference schools already this year, splitting with a win against the
Florida State Seminoles and then the aforementioned fall to the Wildcats. Ohio State hasn’t been close to that level.
When the final buzzer sounds Sunday, will the storyline be that the Buckeyes are ready for conference play or that progress is further along than previously thought?
Either way, the games matter a little more starting this weekend.
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