You’re Nuts: What matchup will determine the winner of Ohio State vs. Iowa?
Matt Tamanini via our friends at Land-Grant Holy Land
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Your (almost) daily dose of good-natured, Ohio State banter.
Everybody knows that one of the best parts of being a sports fan is debating and dissecting the most (and least) important questions in the sporting world with your friends. So, we’re bringing that to the pages of LGHL with our favorite head-to-head column: You’re Nuts.
In You’re Nuts, two LGHL staff members will take differing sides of one question and argue their opinions passionately. Then, in the end, it’s up to you to determine who’s right and who’s nuts.
Today’s Question: What matchup will determine the winner of Ohio State vs. Iowa?
Jami’s Take: Ohio State offense vs. Iowa defense
Five games into the season,
Ohio State will finally have a defensive opponent in Iowa who puts the Buckeye offense to the test (and just in time, as this game marks the start of a string of tough matchups for the Buckeyes).
While Ohio State’s offense has been firing on all cylinders up to now, they also haven’t really been challenged. Offensive coordinator Chip Kelly seemingly hasn’t made a dent in his playbook, and with an arsenal of weapons at their disposal, the team has the ability to pivot and adjust for most defensive schemes with little to no interruption.
But it’s an offense built on explosion—big run plays, flashy pass plays, the kind of things you see in highlight reels at weekend’s end. That’s something that doesn’t tend to fly with Iowa’s defense.
For context, Iowa’s defense ranks in the top 20 in the nation in both points and yards allowed per game, allowing an average of 13.75 points and 272.8 yards respectively. They’ve forced seven turnovers so far this season, and they are the poster child for consistency, going back to the fundamentals every time.
What’s more impressive is that they do it without the headline-worthy recruiting a school like Ohio State has. Defensive coordinator Phil Parker, who won the Broyles Award (given annually to the top assistant coach in college football) last season, has seemingly curated the defense by hand to meet the exact specifications the team needs and then developed the unit from within.
He also returned several key veterans this year, building a roster loaded with
NFL Draft Prospects including defensive backs Sebastian Castro, Jermari Harris, and Quinn Schulte and linebackers Jay Higgins and Nick Jackson.
Ohio State is no stranger to how dangerous a group of guys on a mission can be—just ask our returning seniors who came into this season with a “National Championship or Bust” attitude that should terrify opponents.
To that end, Iowa’s defense is at least a little bit terrifying.
While, to Matt’s point, the Buckeye defense will definitely have to be able to contain Iowa running back Kaleb Johnson on the other side of the ball, it’s much easier to contain one guy than to produce against a defense that has allowed an average of just 62 rushing yards per game.
It’s not all bad news here, Buckeye fans. Even with the stellar numbers Iowa’s defense is putting up, they’re not
quite as good as they were last year, so they’ve exposed some areas the Buckeyes can try to exploit when the Hawkeyes get to Columbus this weekend.
As I mentioned, this defense is fundamentally structured to prevent explosive plays, something that features prominently in Ohio State’s offensive strategy. The thing is, the Hawkeyes haven’t executed this part as flawlessly as they did last season. Thrice in two games, Iowa gave up passing touchdowns of 60-plus yards, including a 75-yard bomb in their loss to
Iowa State.
Now, keep in mind, that when holes get exposed, that’s also an opportunity for the team to plug them from within. You can trust that Parker knows where his team needs to improve, and with Ohio State coming up this weekend, he’s been drilling down on that with fervor.
Still, the critiques are warranted, particularly around the Hawkeye secondary. Ohio State would be wise to capitalize on these weak points this weekend, cracking the door for guys like Jeremiah Smith, Emeka Egbuka, and Carnell Tate to put up some yards on big plays. Given how challenging it could be to get a run game going against this defense, it will be even more critical that the Buckeyes can gain yardage in the air.
The Buckeyes also cannot afford to turn the ball over against the Hawkeyes, who, as I mentioned before, have forced seven turnovers in four games. Given the threat Iowa poses to the Buckeyes’ running game already, failing to hold onto the football could prove costly. It’s not something Ohio State can afford as they enter the meat of their schedule.
If Ohio State wants to head to Oregon with a 5-0 record, they’re going to need the offense firing on all cylinders, executing the fundamentals flawlessly, and making adjustments to account for a versatile and dangerous Iowa defense.
Matt’s Take: Iowa offense vs. OSU defense
Iowa’s defense under Kirk Ferentz has historically been stellar and put up a challenge for any offense that they face. So, I understand why Jami would go with the matchup that she did. However, I think the try swing in the game comes when the Hawkeyes have the ball.
At this point in the season, I have more faith in Chip Kelly’s ability to maneuver all of the weapons at his disposal — despite an offensive line that I am still a bit suspect of — than I am in Jim Knowles’ defense being able to stop a Heisman-Trophy level running back like Kaleb Johnson.
Fortunately for Ohio State, Iowa has little to no passing game with former Michigan signal caller Cade McNamara under center. He is averaging just 147 yards passing per game this season with three touchdowns and two interceptions. So, I don’t think that the secondary will be tested by repeated deep-ball threats throughout the game.
But, I am anxious about how the linebackers and corners will factor into guarding tight ends Luke Lachey — the son of Ohio State legend and radio color commentator Jim Lachey — and Addison Ostrenga — who, to my knowledge, has no familial connections to anyone on the Buckeyes’ broadcast crew.
However, the true test for the Silver Bullets — if they want to keep that distinction — is how will they handle Johnson, a Cincinnati native who is still apparently
a bit salty that he never got an Ohio State offer. Currently, the running back is averaging 171.25 yards per game, which is good for second nationally; his 10 rushing touchdowns are tied for third in the FBS as well.
Johnson has thus far accounted for nearly 33% of Iowa’s offensive plays and 45.5% of their yards. While the Hawkeyes have other competent running backs — Jaziun Patterson and Kamari Moulton — neither is as electric as Johnson. Of his 685 yards on the ground this season, 457 are after contact, and he has 30 missed tackles through 40 games. Johnson leads the country in runs of 20 yards or more and is tied with Boise State’s Ashton Jeanty on runs of 30+ yards.
Now, you might be reading this and think, “But, Matt, Ohio State is third nationally in rushing defense, allowing only 61.75 yards per game,” and you would be right to bring that up.
However, when looking at the teams that the Buckeyes’ have played this season, it is reasonable to acknowledge that they don’t really have the same kind of ground-game pedigree that the Hawkeyes do.
So, when you couple that with some recent defensive concerns for OSU, it does seem reasonable to have some apprehension about this game dynamic. Last week against
Michigan State, it felt like Jim Knowles had his team playing with three linebackers more than any time in recent memory — save, perhaps, last season’s rivalry game; roughly half of the first-team defense’s 40 snaps.
However, the Spartans’ offense didn’t seem to be doing anything that would especially warrant a move to a 4-3 look upfront from the Buckeyes. I imagine this was done to prep Cody Simon, Sonny Styles, and Arvell Reese for the more ground-and-pound approach awaiting them this weekend, but even accounting for the fact that MSU was doing something fundamentally different on offense, neither OSU’s defensive line or linebackers played especially well.
As a defensive unit, the Buckeyes had a 49.9 tackling grade from Pro Football Focus. When you are getting ready to face a 6-foot, 215-pound back who runs as if each and every defender made a disparaging comment about his mother, that can be dangerous. Ultimately, I don’t think that the Hawkeye offense has enough diversity to truly run over the Buckeyes, but if OSU is unable to contain Johnson, it might not bode well for the future.
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