Ohio State v. Tennessee: 2024 game preview and prediction
Brett Ludwiczak via our friends at Land-Grant Holy Land
Visit their fantastic blog and read the full article (and so much more) here
Photo by James Gilbert/Getty Images
The Buckeyes and the Volunteers meet in Columbus on Saturday night with a spot in the Rose Bowl on the line.
Ohio State will host their first-ever game at Ohio Stadium in December when they welcome the
Tennessee Volunteers in the first round of the College Football Playoff on Saturday night. The winner of this game will move on to face the
Oregon Ducks, who are the only undefeated team left in the FBS, in the
Rose Bowl on New Year’s Day. This marks the sixth CFP appearance for the Buckeyes, who won the initial four-team playoff and reached the title game at the end of the shortened 2020 season. Ohio State is the eight-seed in the first 12-team playoff, while the Volunteers are seeded ninth.
Brief history against the Volunteers
Saturday’s game marks just the second-ever meeting with Tennessee. The Volunteers won the first meeting back 20-14 in the 1996 Citrus Bowl. Both teams entered the bowl game with just one loss on the season. The Buckeyes fell to Michigan 31-23 in their final game of the regular season after Tim Biakabutuka ran for 313 yards in the upset, while Tennessee was gashed 62-37 by Florida earlier in the season. The bowl featured a number of future NFL stars, highlighted by Eddie George, Terry Glenn, and Peyton Manning. Ohio State tied the game 14-14 early in the fourth quarter after a Rickey Dudley touchdown before Tennessee earned the victory with two field goals in the final quarter.
A tough loss to swallow
The last time the Buckeyes were in action they suffered an embarrassing 13-10 loss to Michigan, their fourth straight loss to the Wolverines. The defeat not only denied Ohio State a berth in their first Big Ten Championship Game since 2020, as well as a shot at a first-round bye if they could have defeated Oregon in Indianapolis. After heading into halftime with the score tied at 10, the only points in the second half came from a Dominic Zvada 21-yard field goal with 45 seconds to go to give Michigan the lead. The victory by the Wolverines snapped a 47-game winning streak by Ohio State in games where they forced at least two turnovers.
The loss to Michigan was especially frustrating since the Buckeyes played right into the hands of the Wolverines. Instead of working on a depleted Michigan secondary, Ryan Day and Chip Kelly kept trying to run the football right at the middle of the defense of the Wolverines. Along with their struggles running the football, Ohio State squandered a number of red zone opportunities, scoring on just one of their five trips inside the 20-yard line.
The Buckeye offense will look to rebound on Saturday night
On Saturday night running backs Quinshon Judkins and TreVeyon Henderson will be looking to rebound from their disappointing performance against Michigan. Judkins ran for just 46 yards on 12 carries, while Henderson rushed for a season-low 21 yards. The 46 rushing yards by Judkins was just the third time since the Oregon game that he has rushed for at least 30 yards in a game. This season, Judkins and Henderson have combined to rush for 1,556 yards and 14 touchdowns. The duo will have to fight hard to find holes against a stout Tennessee rush defense behind an offensive line that has lost two starters to injury.
Photo by Ben Jackson/Getty Images
Will Howard is going to have to put his worst game in scarlet and gray behind him if the Buckeyes want to make a run in the playoffs. Howard was rocked by a hit with Ohio State driving in the first half that forced him to leave the field for a play. Howard would throw a touchdown pass to Jeremiah Smith just before halftime but he was wildly inaccurate in the limited throwing opportunities he had in the second half. The
Kansas State transfer finished with 19 completions on his 33 passing attempts, throwing for 175, a touchdown, and two interceptions inside the Michigan red zone. The two picks make up a quarter of the eight interceptions Howard has thrown this year.
The only Buckeye to find the end zone against Michigan was Jeremiah Smith. The freshman hauled in his 10th receiving touchdown of the year, putting him one score ahead of Emeka Egbuka for the team lead among receivers. Smith has already set school freshman records for receiving yards, receptions, and receiving touchdowns.
Egbuka will be hoping this isn’t his final game in the scarlet and gray. A win over the Volunteers would give the senior a chance to work on a couple school school-receiving records. Currently, Egbuka’s 184 receptions are eight away from passing David Boston for second in school history, and 18 catches from taking the top spot from K.J. Hill. With 14 more yards, Egbuka would pass Marvin Harrison Jr. for sixth-most at Ohio State. 112 yards would allow Egbuka to pass Chris Olave and move into the top five in receiving yards.
The most trusted target for Howard against Michigan was Carnell Tate, who caught six passes for 58 yards. Over the last four games of the regular season, the sophomore from Chicago has caught 20 passes for 234 yards and two touchdowns, with both scores coming against Northwestern at Wrigley Field. While Smith and Egbuka get all the headlines at receiver, Tate does the dirty work, often making tough catches over the middle.
Despite the loss, Ohio State’s defense is still one of the best in the country
While the Ohio State defense kept the Buckeyes in the game against Michigan, it was obvious late in the fourth quarter that they were tired from having to try and pick up the slack for an ineffective offense. The Wolverines finished with 172 yards rushing in the game, which was the most the Buckeyes have allowed this season. Just to reach that number, Michigan had to run the football 42 times in the game. Ohio State enters this game first in the country in total defense, scoring defense, and pass defense, as well as seventh in rush defense. Since the Oregon game, the defense of the Buckeyes has allowed just five touchdowns, with all of those scores coming on the ground.
The downfall for Ohio State against Michigan came with their inability to create pressure and get into the backfield. Jim Knowles’ defense didn’t record a sack, and registered just three tackles for loss, against the Wolverines. The only other game this season where the Buckeye defense failed to put the opposing quarterback on the ground came in the loss at Oregon.
Photo by Ben Jackson/Getty Images
Despite a lack of a pass rush, defensive end Jack Sawyer tried to find other ways to impact the game as he searched for his first win over Michigan. Sawyer made a brilliant play at the goal line in the fourth quarter, intercepting a pass to keep the game tied at 10. Along with his interception, Sawyer now has two forced fumbles, two fumble recoveries, and 4.5 sacks this season. Sawyer trails fellow senior defensive end J.T. Tuimoloau for the team lead in sacks. Tuimoloau has six sacks this year, as well as a team-high 11.5 tackles for loss. With Tuimoloau and Sawyer on the outside of the defensive line, look for Tyleik Williams and Ty Hamilton to try and eat up space in the middle, making it difficult for running back Dylan Sampson to find running lanes.
In the middle of the Ohio State defense will be linebackers Sonny Styles and Cody Simon, the two top tacklers on the team. Styles leads the Buckeyes with 76 tackles, while Simon has 74 tackles despite missing the season opener. Both Styles and Simon have also done a great job at getting into the backfield, combining for 15 tackles for loss and nine sacks this year. Arvell Reese will also see some playing time on Saturday night. Reese is coming off a seven-tackle performance against That Team Up North.
One player who has experience playing against Tennessee is Caleb Downs, who took the field with Alabama last year against the Volunteers, making nine tackles in the 34-20 win. The sensational safety has gotten stronger as the year has gone on in his first season with the Buckeyes. In the loss to Michigan, Downs was a bright spot, registering 11 tackles and an interception. The sophomore has been recognized for his outstanding play this season, being named a finalist for the Thorpe and Bednarik Awards, a unanimous All-American, and the Big Ten Defensive Back of the Year.
Along with Downs, Lathan Ransom will be lining up at safety. The senior had nine tackles against Michigan, raising his total for the season to 57 stops. Ransom also has been an expert at creating turnovers this season, forcing three fumbles and intercepting a pass. Rounding out the secondary are cornerbacks Denzel Burke, Davison Igbinosun, and Jordan Hancock. Both Burke and Igbinosun have two interceptions on the season. While Burke had a horrific game at Oregon, Igbinosun has had issues with pass-interference penalties this season.
Josh Heupel has rebuilt the culture in Knoxville
Tennessee will be making its first College Football Playoff appearance on Saturday night when they take the field in Columbus. Head coach Josh Heupel has cleaned up the mess Jeremy Pruitt created in Knoxville, leading the Volunteers to two 10-win campaigns in the last three years. Prior to recording 10 wins in 2022, the last time Tennessee hit double-digits in wins in a season was back in 2007 under Phillip Fulmer. The Volunteers have won 14 straight non-conference games, with their last loss to a team outside the SEC coming in 2021 against Purdue in the Music City Bowl.
How Tennessee closed out their regular season
In their final game of the regular season, Tennessee rebounded from an early 14-0 deficit to defeat in-state foe Vanderbilt 36-23 in Nashville, Nico Iamaleava three four touchdowns in the game, finding Dont’e Thornton Jr. twice in the end zone. Dylan Sampson ran for a season-high 178 yards in the victory. The only losses of the season for Tennessee have come at Arkansas and Georgia.
Iamaleava and Sampson lead the Tennessee attack
Taking the snaps for the Volunteers will be first-year starter Nico Iamaleava. Despite entering the season not having started a game, Iamaleava has been solid throughout the year, throwing for 2,512 yards, 19 touchdowns, and just five interceptions. Iamaleava also can pull the football down when necessary, as evidenced by the 311 yards he has rushed for this season. Iamaleava is the first true or redshirt freshman to lead the Volunteers to 10 regular season wins.
Photo by Jeffrey Vest/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
The focal point of the Tennessee offense is running back Dylan Sampson, who has run for a school-record 1,485 yards this season, topping the mark Travis Stephens set in 2001. Sampson also set a school record with 22 rushing touchdowns, becoming the 10th SEC player to rush for at least 20 touchdowns in a season. Of Tennessee’s 12 games this year, Sampson has rushed for at least 100 yards in 10 contests. The conference recognized Sampson’s phenomenal season by naming him the SEC Offensive Player of the Year. Joining Sampson in the backfield is DeSean Bishop, who added 433 yards rushing and three scores this year.
In the victory over Vanderbilt, Dont’e Thornton Jr. was Tennessee’s top receiver, hauling in three passes for 118 yards and two touchdowns. Not only does Thornton lead the team with six receiving touchdowns, his 647 yards receiving are more than 200 more than Bru McCoy, who is second on the team with 432 yards receiving. McCoy does lead the team with 35 catches this season, two more than Squirrel White. McCoy, White, and Chris Brazzell II each have two receiving touchdowns this season, while tight end Miles Kitselman has caught four touchdowns.
How the defense of the Volunteers lines up
Much like Ohio State, Tennessee has one of the top defenses in the country this season. With Tim Banks in charge as defensive coordinator, the Volunteers are fourth in scoring defense and total defense, while their rush defense ranks eighth in the FBS. Of the 12 teams Tennessee has faced this season, they held 10 to less than 20 points. One reason they were able to keep opponents off the scoreboard is their ability to defend the big play. The Volunteers allowed just three plays of more than 40 or more yards this year.
The star of the Tennessee defense is edge rusher James Pearce Jr.. who has been voted First Team All-SEC by the coaches in each of the last two seasons by the coaches. The last Tennessee defensive lineman to earn that honor in back-to-back years was John Henderson in 2000 and 2001. After recording 9.5 sacks last year, Pearce enters Saturday’s game with 7.5 sacks and 11.5 tackles for loss. Pearce is one of the top defensive ends in the country and will be a first-round pick when he enters the
NFL Draft.
On the opposite end of the defensive line, Dominic Bailey has started all but three games this year. Joshua Josephs will also rotate in at times during the game. Josephs started five games this year and was named SEC Defensive Lineman of the Week earlier in the season after forcing two fumbles and recovering a fumble at Oklahoma. The starting defensive tackles should be Omari Thomas and Bryson Eason.
Tennessee’s leading tackler this year is Arion Carter, who has 65 tackles. The sophomore has had a breakout season after missing the final five games of the 2023 season following shoulder surgery. Carter has had to step up in the second half of the season following the loss of Keenan Pili, who suffered a season-ending knee injury against Florida. Jeremiah Telander took over at middle linebacker following the injury to Pili and forced three fumbles this year.
Photo by Lance King/Getty Images
One name Ohio State fans will immediately notice is Andre Turrentine, and not just for his comments recently about the lack of noise there is from fans at Ohio Stadium. Turrentine started his career at Ohio State before transferring to Tennessee following the 2021 season. This season has been the first year that Turrentine has been a full-time starter for the Volunteers. The other safety position for Tennessee is occupied by Will Brooks, who has 54 tackles and three interceptions this season.
Leading the Volunteers in interceptions is cornerback Jermond McCoy. The
Oregon State transfer has four picks and nine passes defended, with the 13 pass interventions ranking second in the country among underclassmen. Joining McCoy at cornerback will be Boo Carter and Rickey Gibson III. McCoy, Carter, and Gibson look like the future of the Tennessee secondary, as McCoy and Gibson are sophomores and Carter is a freshman.
Prediction
Saturday’s game is going to be gut-wrenching for both sides. Two of the best defenses in the country trying to slow down offenses that have very capable skill position players. In the end, this is going to come down to coaching. It’ll be up to Josh Heupel and Ryan Day to put their teams in a better position to win. Obviously, right now Buckeye Nation doesn’t have a lot of faith in Day’s coaching ability, but if he can channel what he was able to do against Georgia in 2022 Ohio State could be very tough to beat.
One area where the Buckeyes are going to have an edge is at quarterback. Will Howard has played a lot of football against some very tough opponents. Even though James Pearce Jr. is one of the best defensive ends in the country, Howard has plenty of experience against some top talent. Not only did Howard take Ohio State into State College and beat Abdul Carter and Penn State, he nearly led the Buckeyes to victory in Oregon in October. Even Nico Iamaleava has excelled in some tough spots this year, Saturday night in Columbus is going to be a whole different animal.
Look for the Buckeyes to put more on Iamaleava’s shoulders by bottling up Dylan Sampson. While Michigan ran for over 170 yards against Ohio State, the Wolverines needed over 40 carries to get there. If Sampson can’t crack 100 yards, the Buckeyes should be in good shape since the Volunteers don’t have the game-changing receivers Ohio State has.
As tough as it is to have faith in the Buckeyes after the Michigan game, this team still has a lot to prove and the seniors don’t want their college careers to end with nothing of consequence to show for it. Maybe Ohio State loses in the Rose Bowl, but at least they advance to a rematch with Oregon by grinding out a win on Saturday night.
LGHL score prediction: Ohio State 24, Tennessee 20
Continue reading...