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Who will play in the BCS Championship game?

BB73;629843; said:
What you say is true, but the examples aren't correct numerically. Numbers are given based on the % of the maximum possible in each category.

If every poll voter had tOSU-W.Va-USC(or Fla) ranked 1-2-3, and every computer had them 1-5-2, this would be the result:

.........................Harris.....USA/Today....computer rank...BCS ave.
Ohio State..........1.0000.....1.0000...........1.0000.............1.0000
USC or Florida......0.9200.....0.9200...........0.9600.............0.9333
West Virginia.......0.9600.....0.9600............0.8400.............0.9200
Just to clarify, since BB73's example presumes everyone has the same 1-2-3 order on their ballots, the BCS now uses the actual point totals in votes from the polls, not the place/rank of the team relative to everyone else. This means that OSU's near-unanimous #1 ranking this season is better than USC's tenuous #1 ranking last season.

For example, there are 63 votes in the coaches poll, so the ceiling on the coaches poll point total is 1575 (63x25). Ohio State currently has 62 first place votes, and one second place vote, giving them 1574 points, for a .999 coaches poll BCS rating. USC's rating is really very poor, because while they are rated #2 overall, they're splitting a lot of 2nd place votes with Florida. USC's point total is 1461, which equates to .928. If a team were to really have a stranglehold on the #2 ranking, they'd be edging closer to 1512 points, which equates to .960 in the BCS formula. In this scenario, USC is not only closer to 3rd place Florida than they are to 1st place Ohio State, but they're actually closer to 3rd place than a solid #2 team should be to 2nd place.

Just want to make sure everyone understands that, because when the BCS ratings are released for the first time next week, OSU's rating won't actually be 1.000, even though they should be #1 in all the polls aside from one or two computers.
 
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BCS question?

This is my first post here, and I hope I dont sound like an idiot...

But I have a question about this years scUM game and the outcome with the BCS standings.

As of now everyone knows the standings are:

1.OSU
2.SC
3.scUM
4.Auburn

The top 3 teams have pulled away from everyone..

However

Im pretty sure SC will lose to either the Ducks, Bears, or an Irish man... leaving OSU and the team up north all by themselves 1 and 2 come November 18th. with a HUGE gap back to then number 3.

Seeing that Auburn is still what could be then 3rd, with a loss to an unranked Arkansas team... Is it possible, if SC does in fact lose a game that the Buckeyes and that other team could not only play the biggiest OSU - scUM game on November 18th but have a rematch again in January?

The only loss either team would have would be to the Number 1 team in the country and since they have to take number 1 and number 2 to the Championship game ( previous years Id say this was impossible since nobody would have picked 2 teams to play each other in a BCS game that not only are from the same conf. but had just played each other at the end of the year. )

Not to mention I dont see how anyone would put either team behind Auburn with, again, there only loss to the number 1 team in the country.

Thanks for the read guys
Have a Good one

:oh: :io:
Josh


:osu: ** Troy Smith for president!! **:osu:

P.S. I'll be the first to admit the computers and the entire BCS system have always and still give me a headache...
 
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I felt a lot has changed since even just last week, with all of the crazy upsets and the releasing of the BCS (and their subsequent computer) rankings. Thus, here's an update of the...

BCS Championship Game Contender Resumes

*Teams with the inside track to Glendale...*

#1 Ohio State (7-0)
Key Wins: at #2 Texas 24-7, #24 Penn State 28-6, at #13 Iowa 38-17
Key Games Left: #2 michigan (11/18)
Upset Alert: Indiana (10/21) -- Hoosiers riding an amazing 2-game Big Ten win streak into Ohio Stadium. Will the Bucks play them tough, or will Hardy make it hard to get the W at home?

#2 michigan (7-0)
Key Wins: at #2 Notre Dame 47-21, Wisconsin 27-13, at Penn State 17-10
Key Games Left: Iowa (10/21), at #1 Ohio State (11/18)
Upset Alert: at Indiana (11/11) -- Seriously, that's the closest team to upset them outside of their key games left.

#3 USC (6-0)
Key Wins: at Arkansas 50-14, #19 Nebraska 28-10
Key Games Left: #16 Oregon (11/11), #11 California (11/18), #10 Notre Dame (11/25)
Upset Alert: at UCLA (12/02) -- Men of Troy might be drained after 3 straight Top 15 games going into the rivalry game.


*Teams that need a little help... (through upsets and computer rankings*

#4 West Virginia (6-0)
Key Wins: ::crickets chirping:: ...Maryland 45-24?
Key Games Left: at #6 Louisville (11/02), at Pittsburgh (11/16), #19 Rutgers (12/02)
Upset Alert: Cincinnati (11/11) -- The Bearcats played Louisville awful tough last weekend. With this game inbetween games at Louisville and Pittsburgh, WV could be in for a heck of a sandwhich game if they're not prepared for it or come into the game soft.

#5 Texas (6-1)
Key Wins: at #14 Oklahoma 28-14
Loss: #1 Ohio State 7-24
Key Games Left: at #17 Nebraska (10/21), #23 Texas A&M (11/24), Big 12 Championship Game (12/02)
Upset Alert: at Texas Tech (10/28) -- Beat A&M at College Station. Closest thing to a knock-off outside of the three games listed above, and Texas's DBs will be ready.

#6 Louisville (6-0)
Key Wins: #17 Miami 31-7
Key Games Left: #4 West Virginia (11/02), at #19 Rutgers (11/09), at Pittsburgh (11/25)
Upset Alert: at Syracuse (10/21) -- Iowa proved it's hard to play in The Dome.

#7 Tennessee (5-1)
Key Wins: #9 California 35-18, at #10 Georgia 51-33
Loss: #7 Florida 20-21
Key Games Left: at South Carolina (10/28), #14 LSU (11/04), at #15 Arkansas (11/11), SEC Championship Game (if Florida losses one more SEC game and UT beats SC-- possible - 12/02)
Upset Alert: Alabama (10/21) -- The Tide roll in after a bye week for the Vols. Us Buckeyes know what can happen after bye weeks...

#8 Auburn (5-1)
Key Wins:#6 LSU 7-3, at South Carolina 24-17, #2 Florida 27-17
Loss: Arkansas 10-27
Key Games Left: Georgia (11/11), SEC Championship Game (if Arkansas losses 2 SEC games -- possible - 12/02)
Upset Alert: at Alabama (11/18) -- Traveling to 'Bama for the Iron Bowl and the teams shouldn't disappoint.

#9 Florida (6-1)
Key Wins: at #13 Tennessee 21-20, Alabama 28-13, #9 LSU 23-10
Loss: At #11 Auburn 27-17
Key Games Left: Georgia (10/28), at Florida State (11/25), SEC Championship Game (12/2)
Upset Alert: South Carolina (11/11) -- Steve Spurrier vs Florida. Should be a good one.

#10 Notre Dame (5-1)
Key Wins: at Georgia Tech 14-10, #19 Penn State 41-17
Loss: #11 michigan 21-47
Key Games Left: UCLA (10/21), at #3 USC (11/25
Upset Alert: at Navy (10/28) -- ND's defense doesn't like QB's that run. Meet Navy, who found Nebraska's old option playbook in the trash one day. If the Domers come in to Annapolis with heads as big as their coach...

#11 California (6-1)
Key Wins: #22 Arizona State 49-21, #11 Oregon 45-24
Loss: at #23 Tennessee 18-35
Key Games Left: UCLA (11/04), at #3 USC (11/18)
Upset Alert: Washington (10/21) -- The Fightin' Willinghams already have wins over Fresno State and UCLA, and gave USC a run for their money.

#12 Clemson (5-1)
Key Wins: at #9 Florida State 27-20, at Wake Forest 27-17
Loss: at Boston College 33-34
Key Games Left: #13 Georgia Tech (10/21), at Virginia Tech (10/26), South Carolina (11/25), ACC Championship Game (if BC loses one more ACC game -- possible - 12/02)
Upset Alert: NC State (11/25) -- May LOOK like a cupcake game the way NCST started the season, but NCST has consecutive wins over #20 Boston College and #17 Florida State on its resume.


Waiting List With Arguments: #13 Georgia Tech (W at VT), #15 Arkansas (W at AUB), #16 Oregon (W vs Okla), #22 Boston College (W's vs Vt and Clem)

Waiting List Without An Argument (yet): #17 Nebraska, #18 Boise State, #19 Rutgers, #21 Wisconsin, #25 Wake Forest

Dropped From Last Week's Waiting List: Iowa, Georgia, #24 Missouri, Virginia Tech

Note: All games played were with AP rankings AT THE TIME OF THE GAME and all games to be played are with current AP rankings (as of October 16th)

-------------

OSU, scUM, and USC control their own destinies at this point. USC will have to lose for the winner of WV/LOU to jump into that top three. Last week, I'd have said Tennessee looked like the best of the one-loss teams. Right now, I'd say that Florida and Auburn have the best resumes and Texas and Cal look SO much better than they did at the beginning of the season.

It will be very interesting to see which teams make BCS bowls as at-large teams and which ones just miss out. The pool would include the 2nd place teams from the Big Ten (scUM/OSU), Pac10 (USC/Cal), SEC (Fla/Aub/Ark), ACC (Clem/GT), Big East (WV/Lou), plus Notre Dame and Boise State. That's a pretty amazing pool, if you ask me. Might be a year that a few deserving 2-loss teams don't make the cut, but at least there won't be any 4-loss conference championship winners this year (like FSU a couple years back).
 
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BuckTwenty;635715; said:
I felt a lot has changed since even just last week, with all of the crazy upsets and the releasing of the BCS (and their subsequent computer) rankings. Thus, here's an update of the...

BCS Championship Game Contender Resumes

*Teams with the inside track to Glendale...*

#1 Ohio State (7-0)
Key Wins: at #2 Texas 24-7, #24 Penn State 28-6, at #13 Iowa 38-17
Key Games Left: #2 michigan (11/18)
Upset Alert: Indiana (10/21) -- Hoosiers riding an amazing 2-game Big Ten win streak into Ohio Stadium. Will the Bucks play them tough, or will Hardy make it hard to get the W at home?

Will Hardy make it tough? I don't know, maybe Paul Kiels will describe it for me. Sure as hell it won't be on my TV though.
 
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.:.Brutus.:.;635712; said:
This is my first post here, and I hope I dont sound like an idiot...

But I have a question about this years scUM game and the outcome with the BCS standings.

As of now everyone knows the standings are:

1.OSU
2.SC
3.scUM
4.Auburn

The top 3 teams have pulled away from everyone..

However

Im pretty sure SC will lose to either the Ducks, Bears, or an Irish man... leaving OSU and the team up north all by themselves 1 and 2 come November 18th. with a HUGE gap back to then number 3.

Seeing that Auburn is still what could be then 3rd, with a loss to an unranked Arkansas team... Is it possible, if SC does in fact lose a game that the Buckeyes and that other team could not only play the biggiest OSU - scUM game on November 18th but have a rematch again in January?

The only loss either team would have would be to the Number 1 team in the country and since they have to take number 1 and number 2 to the Championship game ( previous years Id say this was impossible since nobody would have picked 2 teams to play each other in a BCS game that not only are from the same conf. but had just played each other at the end of the year. )

Not to mention I dont see how anyone would put either team behind Auburn with, again, there only loss to the number 1 team in the country.

Thanks for the read guys
Have a Good one

:oh: :io:
Josh


:osu: ** Troy Smith for president!! **:osu:

P.S. I'll be the first to admit the computers and the entire BCS system have always and still give me a headache...
The chance of OSU/UM getting a rematch is virtually zero. Everybody else would have to have two losses, and that just isn't going to happen.

Notre Dame will go undefeated until the USC game, and even if USC suffers a loss to one of Cal or Oregon (just not both), they'll remain in the Top-10. The #2 spot in the polls would then go to the winner of ND/USC provided neither has more than the one loss at the time they play. The other alternative, as I mentioned several pages ago, is the #2 spot going to the best team in the SEC that doesn't get to the SEC title game; either Auburn or Tennessee. A third possibility is that the #2 spot goes to the winner of the Louisville/West Virginia game. Either one will have a legit claim since they will have beaten the other, Pittsburgh and Rutgers -- all Top-25 caliber teams.

Looking at the standing right now though, there are all sorts of possibilities that the national title game could be a rematch of some game played earlier in the year: Ohio State/Texas, Ohio State/Michigan, or Michigan/Notre Dame being the most likely rematches.
 
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Everyone notice the national media starting to talk about how the BE isn't that bad and the seasons Rutgers and Pitt are having?

I'm telling you they will continue that theme in order to readjust the human polls late in the year to keep an undefeated BE team(if there is one) in line for a spot in the game.

The east coast media has a serious influnce and as much as they love ND, I'm still betting and undefeated WVU/UL gets voted up high enough in the human polls to stay ahead of any 1 loss team.
 
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Everyone notice the national media starting to talk about how the BE isn't that bad and the seasons Rutgers and Pitt are having?

I'm telling you they will continue that theme in order to readjust the human polls late in the year to keep an undefeated BE team(if there is one) in line for a spot in the game.

The east coast media has a serious influnce and as much as they love ND, I'm still betting and undefeated WVU/UL gets voted up high enough in the human polls to stay ahead of any 1 loss team.
Well...if we are the team they are playing...then good! I'd love to crush a Big East team...I mean face it...we are playing the best team that's not us on Nov. 18...it doesn't get bigger than that.
 
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JonathanXC;637606; said:
Well...if we are the team they are playing...then good! I'd love to crush a Big East team...I mean face it...we are playing the best team that's not us on Nov. 18...it doesn't get bigger than that.


Hell yeah, I'm not bitching in the least.

If we make it in my wish list is WVU, UL, or ND in that order.

I think we can handle anyone but I'd sure love to spend 6 weeks after The Game basking in a win and knowing its one of those 3 teams bewteen us and our NC.

BTW I've been home ill this week and listened to a lot of national media talk and have already heard people say The Game is essentially for the NC this year. Look for that sentiment to gain a lot of steam if/when some of the contenders drop games because OSU and UM won't imo.
 
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Jaxbuck;637603; said:
I'm telling you they will continue that theme in order to readjust the human polls late in the year to keep an undefeated BE team(if there is one) in line for a spot in the game.
I think an undefeated Louisville would deserve it. I won't bother speculating on WVU because I think both Brohm and Palko will lite their secondary up like a Christmas tree.

Louisville, with or without Brohm and Bush, is legit, IMHO.
 
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