Who will play in the BCS Championship game?

[mrpeabody3119]

The only way I see Flordia losing is next week at 7:30. Alburn is going to bring it, trying to get themself back to a bowl game.

 

[Thump]

The only way I see Flordia losing is next week at 7:30. Alburn is going to bring it, trying to get themself back to a bowl game.

I believe Auburn is actually a 2.5 point favorite.

 

[buckeyegrad]

I still think USC loses as well.

My money is on West Virginia at this point.

I agree. USC will lose at least one of its last four games, if not two. I think Florida has the best chance of going undefeated, but will likely get tripped up somewhere along the way.

Right now it looks like the NC will be the winner of OSU/scUM against the winner of WV/Louisville. Then again, I'm not sure scUM doesn't lose either this week or next.

 

[Best Buckeye]

The first BCS poll is due out next monday. the preseason poll had the Bucks finishing 4th behind Texas. Having said that I think the NC game will be between tOSU and Fla.
http://www.collegefootballpoll.com/preseason_comparison.html

 

[Dryden]

My two cents, the best one loss team in the country right now may be Tennessee. It's a tough call between them and Texas, but the Vols resume would look really good if their only loss turns out being by a single point to Florida. Tenn gets LSU at home, but goes to S Carolina (Fullmer v. Spurrier is always good stuff) and to Arkansas. Not easy, but hardly impossible after the offensive display Saturday night between the hedges. Because Tenn lost the head-to-head and Georgia has been exposed, Fla looks like a lock for the SEC CCG as the Easts representative. That might actually help Tennessee, since it would allow them to dodge a very tough game at the end and preserve the #2 ranking in both polls, if they can work up to there.

WVU's sad excuse for a secondary will be exposed by Louisville, USC will probably lose two of their last four games, and Florida will really have to work to stay unbeaten. Texas shouldn't lose another game, and Louisville shouldn't lose a single game all year.

IMHO, the battle for #2 will probably come down to computers and voters juggling one-loss teams Texas and Tennessee to face the winner of the Ohio State/Michigan game. Both Texas and Tenn should finish FAR ahead of Louisville (even if undefeated) due to Louisville's weak SOS. Kentucky, Temple, Miami, Kansas St, and M Tenn St were their non-conference opponents -- a combined 9-16 against D1A competition. Sagarin currently has Louisville ranked all the way down at #20 in his BCS rankings. The only two opponents that Louisville will play that are ranked are WVU (Sagarin #29) and Rutgers (Sagarin #28), and their rankings will certainly plummet once Louisville hammers them.

Tennessee and Texas are in the best position, and I'd give Tennessee the nod right now.

 

[DallasBuckeye]

I think ND is getting forgotten in all of this. I believe there is a rule that if there is no undefeated team, or if the media doesn't like one of the undefeated teams, ND automatically advance to the natl championship game.

seriously, if the Horn fans think that they can get in front of a 1 loss ND team (which means ND beat USC) they're crazy. ND runs the table the rest of the way and the media will give Brady Quinn this year's Heisman and next year's too, and they'll probably just vote them the championship without needing to play us.

btw, the Horns looked good in the second half of the OU game but they could be "surprised" by someone they play too. they've got Nebraska, Tech and Aggie. it shouldn't happen but then again, Auburn got a big lesson in "shouldn't" Saturday.

 

[LordJeffBuck]

Right now, only six teams control their own destiny: Ohio State, Michigan, Florida, Southern Cal, West Virginia, and Louisville.

The loser of Ohio State-Michigan is out, and the winnner is in, IF undefeated.

The loser of West Virginia-Louisville is out, and the winner is in, IF undefeated, BUT ONLY IF both Florida and Southern Cal lose. Like it or not, the Big East is still a BCS conference, and an undefeated team from the Big East will (or at least should) make it to the championship game over ANY once-defeated team.

Southern Cal is in IF undefeated, BUT ONLY IF Florida loses.

Florida is in IF undefeated.

The way I see it, the only chance that a one-loss team has to make it to the championship game is if at least five of the current undefeated teams lose at least one game.

Possible, perhaps even likely, scenario:

1) Ohio State runs the table, narrowly defeats an undefeated Michigan (very possible)
2) Florida runs the table, but loses in the SEC championship game
3) Louisville beats WVU, then stumbles somewhere else (or vice versa, it really doesn't matter) (possible)
4) Notre Dame runs the table (beating Southern Cal in the process) (very possible)
5) Texas runs the table (likely)
6) Clemson runs the table (likely)
7) The PAC-10 continues to be unimpressive (likely)​

Now that would present a real headache for pollsters/BCS. Obviously, OSU would be in, and both WVU and Louisville would be out, leaving the following one-loss teams: Florida, Michigan, Texas, Notre Dame, and Clemson (with Tennessee (lost to Florida), California (lost to Tennessee), and Oregon (lost to California) being irrelevant to this discussion). Thus,

Reason to select Michigan: they beat Notre Dame
Reason not to select Michigan: they already lost to Ohio State; rematch game (last game of regular season)
Reason to select Texas: none
Reason not to select Texas: they already lost to Ohio State; rematch game (2005-2006)
Reason to select Notre Dame: prestige and national fan base
Reason not to select Notre Dame: weak schedule; they already lost to one-loss Michigan, badly; rematch game (2005 Fiesta Bowl)
Reason to select Florida: strongest conference
Reason not to select Florida: they lost late
Reason to select Clemson: none
Reason not to select Clemson: weak conference​

BTW, Auburn could really make things interesting, if they run the table, beating Florida twice in the process (regular season and SEC championship). And what if Arkansas runs the table...?

So, hope and pray that two and only two teams go undefeated (one of them being Ohio State, of course), or expect one Hell of a BCS mess.

My guess is that the winner of OSU-Michigan plays the winner of WVU-Louisville in the Fiesta Bowl.

 

[LordJeffBuck]

seriously, if the Horn fans think that they can get in front of a 1 loss ND team (which means ND beat USC) they're crazy. ND runs the table the rest of the way and the media will give Brady Quinn this year's Heisman and next year's too, and they'll probably just vote them the championship without needing to play us.

Agreed. A one-loss ND team jumps to the front of the line come BCS time.

Tennessee and Texas are in the best position, and I'd give Tennessee the nod right now.

For Tennessee to advance to the SEC championship game, Florida would have to lose twice in the regular season - not likely. Tennessee needs to run the table in order to get an "at large" bid. I don't see an "at large" team playing in the BCS championship game.

 

[sandgk]

I have not posted this up yet, as I am waiting on the updated Anderson & Hester data, (believing as I do that Wolfe's ratings typically match closely the Billingsley ratings - well by season end at least - I feel somewhat comfortable not having Wolfe's in hand) the A&H data is one week old and swings wildly this early.

That said, the preliminary ranking when incorporating the ranked computer data, throwing out Hi and Lo and the like per BCS methodology shows the following projected top 8

Ohio State - 1
USC - 2
Florida - 3
Michigan - 4
NOTRE DAME - 5
Louisville - 6
Texas - 7
West Virginia - 8

Now, imagine if Florida loses one game (SEC Championship or other). They would drop out. Imagine that Louisville and W. Va knock out a Big East contender. It really doesn't matter much which way it goes for the lack of love the Computer portion is likely to show West Virginia is HUGE. If the Buckeyes take care of business Michigan is out. Should USC fail to run the table - and they have been looking vulnerable - then the inside track belongs to? It could easily fall to none other than currently 5th seeded Notre Dame.

 

[Dryden]

For Tennessee to advance to the SEC championship game, Florida would have to lose twice in the regular season - not likely. Tennessee needs to run the table in order to get an "at large" bid. I don't see an "at large" team playing in the BCS championship game.

That's my point. Tennessee won't play in the CCG, so that actually gives them the advantage of backing into the BCS title game with the easiest remaining SEC schedule and no SEC title game -- let Florida and Auburn (or Arkansas) all take turns beating each other, while the Vols quietly sneak up to #2 in the overall BCS standings once all is said and done.

Remember, Nebraska didn't even play in the Big-12 title game in 2001, but went on to the National Title Game since they secured the #2 spot in the final BCS poll, which is really all that matters.

 

[BB73]

If tOSU wins out, I see the opponent coming from a BCS mess among Louisville, Texas, a 1-loss USC, and a 1-loss Florida team.

I think Louisville wins out, and that USC will lose to Cal but beat ND, getting a bigger-than-deserved boost for beating ND late.

A 1-loss Tennessee has to be ahead of a 1-loss Cal team that they waxed, but I think Tennesee will lose again.

 

[LordJeffBuck]

Remember, Nebraska didn't even play in the Big-12 title game in 2001, but went on to the National Title Game since they secured the #2 spot in the final BCS poll, which is really all that matters.

Yes. And I also remember how poorly that result was received by everyone who follows college football. And I remember how badly Nebraska was beaten by Colorado (62-36) in the final week of the regular season. And how badly they were beaten in the championship game by Miami (37-14). I don't think that anyone wants to risk that kind of result again, so I don't see an at large team making the championship game.

 

[BuckeyeNation27]

Do you agree that Florida and USC will lose a game this season before the bowl games?

I do. I think UF loses to Auburn and USC loses to Cal.

 

[martinss01]

if florida wins out it doesn't matter they deserve #2. though not that likely.
usc will win out.
wvu will win out.

the only way the bcs stays clean is if we drop one. anything else will result in a split nc with the bcs champ and the media's champ who will be whoever was left out of the nc game. either usc or wvu, or both.

 

[jwinslow]

If no one else is undefeated, they probably will.

If we make it to Glendale, I'd love to play WVU. The team will have beaten two top teams in Texas & UM, I'm fine with a blowout like USC-OU 04. If Florida made the title game, they could give OSU a heck of a game.

at this point i think it is very possible that usc, florida, and wvu will all go undefeated. florida imo would go as #2 but will make a huge bcs mess once again resulting in the media once again giving our nc crown to usc.

USC had most of the #1 votes heading into the BCS (37 USC, 18 LSU, 8 OU)... that scenario will not repeat itself this year.