Here are my handicapping thoughts on each potential new additon to the Big Ten. I rated each school in seven categories - athletics, academics, rivalries, geography, television, compatibility, and perception - from one star (complete loser) to five stars (perfect fit). Geography rates how well a school fits into the current Big Ten, and television rates the new markets that a school would bring in.
Notre Dame
Athletics: 4* (prestigious but fading football program; irrelevant basketball program; CCHA hockey; women's soccer is top rate)
Academics: 3* (very good undergraduate; weak graduate and research; not AAU)
Rivalries: 5* (Michigan, Michigan State, Purdue; would easily develop rivalries with the rest of the conference)
Geography: 5* (in the Big Ten heartland)
Television: 5* (one of the few national draws in college football)
Compatibility: 3* (will their snobbish, private school attitude fly in the Big Ten?)
Perception: 5* (regardless of the reality, snagging Notre Dame would be perceived as a tremendous coup)
Overall: 30* (in terms of prestige and perception, this move would really boost a sagging conference; a perfect fit geographically)
Likelihood: ? (they won't get special treatment in the Big Ten, so would they lower themselves to our level?)
Texas
Athletics: 5* (top-10 football program; very good basketball program; club hockey)
Academics: 5* (AAU; one of the top academic institutions in the world)
Rivalries: 1* (none, although they do have recent history with Ohio State)
Geography: 2* (at least it's not the West Coast....)
Television: 5* (would open a huge new market for the Big Ten)
Compatibility: 4* (some cultural differences, but otherwise a good fit)
Perception: 5* (stealing a top program from a top conference would immediately give the Big Ten renewed credibility)
Overall: 27* (the biggest prize both athleticially and academically, but geography is a big stumbling block)
Likelihood: ? (faculty would support; would lose big-time football rivalries; would they make a second move in 20 years?)
Missouri
Athletics: 3-1/2* (solid football and basketball programs; club hockey)
Academics: 3-1/2* (AAU; respectable, but would be at the bottom of the Big Ten)
Rivalries: 3* (Illinois; would be a natural rival of Iowa)
Geography: 4* (contiguous state; fits in nicely with the current Big Ten)
Television: 4* (adds St. Louis and Kansas City)
Compatibility: 5* (as a midwest state flagship, it is probably the best fit)
Perception: 3-1/2* (not nearly the home run that Notre Dame or Texas would be, but it's still a Big 12 school)
Overall: 26-1/2* (lots of "very good", not much "outstanding" ... perhaps the best overall fit, all things considered)
Likelihood: ? (would probably join tomorrow if given the opportunity)
Nebraska
Athletics: 4* (not much to add besides a top-10 football program)
Academics: 3-1/2* (AAU; like Missouri, they would enter the conference at the bottom)
Rivalries: 2* (minor rivalries with Minnesota and Iowa; would have difficulty generating rivalries with the "eastern" schools)
Geography: 3* (a contiguous state, but moves the conference pretty far west)
Television: 2* (Omaha, and that's about it)
Compatibility: 4-1/2* (like Missouri, it is a midwest state flagship)
Perception: 4-1/2* (not quite the "steal" that Texas would be, but it would still be perceived as a major move)
Overall: 23-1/2* (similar to Missouri in many ways, but a lower population base and a bit too far west)
Likelihood: ? (they already lost their rivalry with Oklahoma, and the B-12 is Texas-centric, so they might have some interest)
Iowa State
Athletics: 1* (perhaps the worst BCS football program, and basketball isn't much better; excellent wrestling program)
Academics: 4* (AAU; emphasis on research; they would still enter the conference at the bottom)
Rivalries: 4* (Iowa; would be a natural rival of the "western" Big Ten schools)
Geography: 4* (solidly in the traditional conference core)
Television: 1* (duplicates the Big Ten's worst TV market)
Compatibility: 5* (midwest, land grant, state flagship)
Perception: 1* (this would generate zero positive buzz in the media or amongst the various fan bases)
Overall: 20* (a schizophrenic choice, with the bad ultimately outweighing the good by a large margin)
Likelihood: ? (this makes sense only as the third member of a package deal, with Texas and Mizzou being the lead dogs)
Pittsburgh
Athletics: 3-1/2* (solid football and basketball programs; club hockey)
Academics: 4-1/2* (AAU; would be in the middle of the pack in the Big Ten; heavily into research)
Rivalries: 4* (Penn State, Ohio State; might have difficulty in generating rivalries with the "western" schools)
Geography: 4* (in a Big Ten state, but not in the midwest heartland)
Television: 2* (would solidify a current market, but would not really expand the conference's reach)
Compatibility: 4* (not solidly midwest, but they should fit in just fine)
Perception: 3* (this move wouldn't really impress too many people outside of the State of Pennsylvania)
Overall: 25* (if the conference wants to head east, then this is the obvious choice)
Likelihood: ? (the Big East doesn't offer much, but would Pitt ruin the conference just to take a better deal?)
Rutgers
Athletics: 2* (still trying to get acclimated to FBS; not much of a basketball program; club hockey)
Academics: 4* (AAU; very solid undergrad and grad programs; not heavy into research compared to the rest of the Big Ten)
Rivalries: 1-1/2* (used to be a Penn State whipping boy; no other ready-made rivalries)
Geography: 3-1/2* (a contiguous state near major cities, but this is really dragging the conference toward the East Coast)
Television: 3* (would this really open the New York market? will CFB sell in NYC? it might be worth a shot....)
Compatibility: 3* (a flagship state university, but New Jersey is very far removed from the midwest)
Perception: 1-1/2* (might as well target Kent State....)
Overall: 18-1/2* (outside of the academic fit, this seems like a mismatch; clearly weakens the conference athletically)
Likelihood: ? (a little to like, a lot not to like ... makes more sense if Pitt is also in the bargain)
Syracuse
Athletics: 3* (moribund football program; strong basketball program; club hockey; men's lacrosse is top rate; crappy stadium)
Academics: 2-1/2* (AAU; respectable undergraduate programs, not much in terms of graduate programs or research)
Rivalries: 2-1/2* (Penn State; only other natural rival would be Ohio State)
Geography: 3* (in the middle of nowhere in a contiguous state)
Television: 3-1/2* (not an entry into any big market, but might have some impact in the East Coast)
Compatibility: 2* (private school, not midwest)
Perception: 2* (would be perceived as a step backward for the Big Ten)
Overall: 18-1/2* (Syracuse makes no sense on any level, unless it is part of a package deal with Pitt)
Likelihood: ? (who knows, who really cares? doubt that they make the final cut, unless Pitt and/or Rutgers is also in the mix)
Toronto
Athletics: 2* (football and basketball programs are far from BCS calibre; strong hockey program)
Academics: 5* (AAU; international powerhouse; very strong research)
Rivalries: 1* (would be starting from scratch)
Geography: 2* (international travel is no fun)
Television: 3* (Toronto is a huge market and a good sports town, but would they care about American football?)
Compatibility: 3* (fits the CIC profile to a tee, but not the Big Ten profile at all)
Perception: 1* (would be laughed at on ESPN for years to come)
Overall: 17* (an off-the-wall choice that could pay huge dividends down the road ... or become another University of Chicago)
Likelihood: ? (if football the driving force behind expansion, then this will never happen)
Cincinnati
Athletics: 2* (traditionally mediocre football program; strong basketball; lousy facilities)
Academics: 1-1/2* (not an AAU member; essentially a commuter school; far below Big Ten standards)
Rivalries: 4* (ready-made rivalry with Ohio State; natural rival with at least half of the conference)
Geography: 4* (physcially in the Big Ten, mentally in the SEC)
Television: 2* (solidifies a large Big Ten market, with some in-roads into SEC country)
Compatibility: 1* (just not what the conference is looking for on any level)
Perception: 1-1/2* (would be hailed as a brilliant move in Hamilton County; would get five minutes of coverage on ESPN)
Overall: 16* (would be an abysmal choice that would weaken the conference athletically and academically)
Likelihood: ? (barring an Act of Congress, there is a zero percent chance of UC being invited to the Big Ten)
My vCash is on Texas, with Mizzou being the second choice, and Iowa State being a super dark horse candidate as part of an all-out raid of the Big 12 (Texas, Mizzou, Iowa State, for example).
I don't know maybe if the odds were about 100 times what they currently are I might think about it but I don't know if my heirs will need the vcash:)
