Caution: Wall of Text post follows.
I know it's not you, but fuck that "vacated" bullshit. I'm counting the 2010 season, so fuck Gene Smith and the NCAA. So, now with the correct totals:
1. Head to Head wins: scUM 58 - Ohio State 51
2. All-time wins: scUM 954 - Ohio State 924
3. Big Ten Titles: scUM 42 - OSU 38
Option 1: We have eight wins to make up before with pass these fuckers in head-to-head wins. Even though we've won 16 of the last 17 in The Game with a non-interim head coach, I think winning the next eight straight just isn't going to happen (if we did, our current series win steak would reach a mind-boggling 15 straight). The issue is a loss causes us to have to win two more games to offset that loss. For example, if (when) we win this season, the series goes to 58-52 in wins (6-win difference). But if we lose, it goes to 59-51 (8-win difference), so now we have to win the next two Games to make up for that loss. The quickest we can pass them in the for series wins if we include just one loss is 10 games (9-1, which make the series 60-59 in our favor). If there are two losses, then that now goes to 12 games (10-2, and 61-60 series). I'm going to go with the second one, and assume scUM somehow wins two in the next twelve, so we don't pass them in head-to-head wins until a we win the 2030 edition of The Game.
Seasons required: 12
Option 2: We are currently 30 games behind in all-time wins. The last two head coaches for the fuckers up north have averaged about 8.5 wins per year. If we go back to when Tressel arrived at Ohio State (2001), and throw out the RichRod years which badly skewed the win totals, they average just under 9 wins a year. Now, if we go back since 2001 and throw out the three worst years like we did for scUM (2001, 2004, 2011), we average just under 12 wins a year. With a 3 wins per year advantage, we would catch up the them after 10 seasons (plus or minus a game or two). If we go strictly 3 extra wins a year, it be be during the 11th season from now (2029) where we would pass them in all-time wins.
Seasons required: 11
Options 3: We are currently four conference titles behind. Since scUM's last conference title in 2004, we have won the title eight times (out of 14 seasons). I'll throw scUM a bone and say they break through a win the conference once in the next decade. Even with that, if we win the conference every other year over the next decade that's five more titles, putting us in a tie (43-43). So, we'd need at least one more year, and since we've slightly better than a title every two years, I'll say we win the title in the 11th season also, making it 11 seasons to pass them.
Seasons required: 11
Since option 1 requires 12 seasons, we need to choose which is likelier between the two 11-season options. I just think that Option 3 is slightly likelier, because I don't see scUM having any really disastrous season win-total wise over the next decade to help us in the head-to-head chase (Option 2), and I think we can continue churning out conference titles at the current once-every-other-year rate with scUM maybe winning one in the next decade or so..