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What Will Be the Buckeyes' Record in 2006?

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What Will Be the Buckeyes' Record in 2006?

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zincfinger said:
Mili, Randy's right, football follows the same mathematics of probability as anything else. Just multiply the probabilities for victory in all of the games, to get the probability of going undefeated for the season. In the case of the probabilities you gave, it's ~9.5%.


Of course, after insisting on statistically logical analysis, Randy went in the opposite direction when he said that Michigan is "due" to beat the Bucks.
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Football is not played on paper(Numbers), its played on the field.
 
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i've heard there is no such thing as being due. baseball for instance: if a hitter is a .300 hitter and is 0-10 his next at bat most would say he has better odds of getting a hit, but the odds are still .300 that he will get a hit (mutually exclusive or something like that). is this correct or am i missing something. (xray i know you were kidding i just want to know the reasoning)

Milli, 80% to beat Michigan huh? I hope you are right!
 
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MililaniBuckeye said:
Football doesn't work on "distribution"...it works on the field. But, I'll follow your lead and then you tell me what our chances for an undefeated regular season are:

Northern Illinois 95%
Texas 60%
Cincinnati 95%
Penn State 90%
Iowa 65%
Bowling Green 95%
Michigan State 60%
Indiana 95%
Minnesota 85%
Illinois 90%
Northwestern 90%
Michigan 80%
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Comes out to slightly less than 10% unless I screwed up the math.
 
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Northern Illinois 95%
Texas 60%
Cincinnati 95%
Penn State 90%
Iowa 65%
Bowling Green 95%
Michigan State 60%
Indiana 95%
Minnesota 85%
Illinois 90%
Northwestern 90%
Michigan 80%
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I'm OK with the 80% at home against scUM.

But I think that Texas and Penn State would be more like 50% and 80%, respectively. That would put the overall odds at almost exactly 7%.
 
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BB73 said:
But I think that Texas and Penn State would be more like 50% and 80%, respectively.
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I put us at 60% at Texas because of their QBs...if even one of them had some sort game experience, I would've put it at around 40-50%.

I put us at 90% against Penn State because we've neer lost to PSU at home since they joined the conference, they're hurt more overall by graduation, and the revenge factor. I think we stomp a mudhole in their ass...
 
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I thought a couple of your probabilities were a little generous to the Bucks, too, Mili (not that there's anything wrong with that). The way I usually think about it is, if "Game X" was played 10 times, what would the record be? I'd say at Texas ~4-6 (although I'd like to say 5-5), home against PSU ~8-2, although it could be a little lower, and home against Michigan ~7-3.
 
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zincfinger said:
The way I usually think about it is, if "Game X" was played 10 times, what would the record be?
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That's exactly how I arrived at my guesses. Penn State hasn't beat us at home as a Big Ten member (6 games), and has cracked single digits once (and that was 10 points). The way we own them in The Shoe, with their losses on offense, and with the revenge factor, if this game were played ten times I see us winning at least nine.

Same approach with Texas and Michigan. We'd beat Texas 6 out of 10 with their totally green QBs, and no way Michigan wins more than 2 out of 10 in The Shoe.
 
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