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What Will Be the Buckeyes' Record in 2005?

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What Will Be the Buckeyes' Record in 2005?

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here is the bottom line. our defense has been the main thing keeping our heads above water the past few years. up until the arrival of ginn, we haven't had that impact player on offense. now we have ginn and Holmes and Gonzalez and smith and Pittman...i could go on. with our defense coming back with badasses in carpenter, hawk and shlegal (hopefully Andrea if he gets healthy) we have everything we need smack the big ten in the mouth. not to mention salley and whitner in the defensive backfield with youboty. i don't care who that fourth db turns out to be...we are gonna be awesome. after the jersey scrimmage the other day and a domination of our defense by our offense it is hard to sit still when i think about this fall. that is no put down on our defense either...they finally have a play-making offense to add to the frenzy. i am expecting nothing less than big ten championship then I'll think about the national championship. i will say this, the main man i am going to miss is Nugent. even in 2002 we relied on him and the rest of the special teams to pull out some tough games. hopefully Huston can fill those shoes at least enough to get the job done.
 
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This is as strong as we have been in years. I agree with most that we have a legitimate shot at running the table but you know how that goes. An injury here, a bad call there and anyone can stub their toe. On the poll I was on of the "as long as we beat michagan" votes but that's not really true. Me and Fadeproof were talking just the other night about how fantastic an Ohio State-USC match up in the Rose Bowl for the NC would be. I'm ready.
 
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Many aren't going to like my concluding numbers, so let me preface this with the following statement: I think OSU is probably the best team in the Big 10 next season and is Top 5 in the nation. I also think home field is extremely important. Anyway, here's my take:

<TABLE BORDER=1><TR><TH><B>Opponent</B></TH><TH><B>Chance of Winning</B></TH></TR><TR><TD>Miami (OH)</TD><TD>97.5%</TD></TR><TR><TD>Texas</TD><TD>60%</TD></TR><TR><TD>SDSU</TD><TD>97.5%</TD></TR><TR><TD>Iowa</TD><TD>60%</TD></TR><TR><TD>@Penn State</TD><TD>85%</TD></TR><TR><TD>MSU</TD><TD>90%</TD></TR><TR><TD>@Indiana</TD><TD>97.5%</TD></TR><TR><TD>@Minnesota</TD><TD>90%</TD></TR><TR><TD>Illinois</TD><TD>97.5%</TD></TR><TR><TD>Northwestern</TD><TD>97.5%</TD></TR><TR><TD>@Michigan</TD><TD>45%</TD></TR></TABLE>

This gives me surprisingly round numbers:

11-0 Odds: 10%
10-1 Odds: 30%
9-2 Odds: 35%
8-3 Odds: 19%
7-4 Odds: 5%
6-5 Odds: 1%

If we just assume OSU has a 50% chance of winning their bowl, we get:

12-0 Odds: 5%
11-1 Odds: 20%
10-2 Odds: 33%
9-3 Odds: 27%
8-4 Odds: 12%
7-5 Odds: 3%


If you agree more or less with my odds of winning each game and are surprised at how low these odds are of going undefeated, well, that's the price you pay for scheduling a team like Texas. Each powerhouse team you schedule basically halves your chances of going undefeated.
 
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Nice breakdown Mile, honestly, I'd put our chances of winning at Ann Arbor lower than 45%...especially w/ a loss to Texas.

In reality, those numbers are very realistic. Just look at the 2002 season...how many times were we on the verge of losing?
 
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MililaniBuckeye said:
While I truly feel we have a really, really good shot at running the table and winning the NC, I voted 10-2 only because the last time I did so was before the 2002 season, and that year turned out OK.
Click to expand...

Mili- I bet you actually voted for 12-2 in '02 :wink2:

Well-- so did I, and I'm going and 2 again.

Same Reason
 
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TheMile said:
Many aren't going to like my concluding numbers, so let me preface this with the following statement: I think OSU is probably the best team in the Big 10 next season and is Top 5 in the nation. I also think home field is extremely important. Anyway, here's my take:

<TABLE BORDER=1><TR><TH><B>Opponent</B></TH><TH><B>Chance of Winning</B></TH></TR><TR><TD>Miami (OH)</TD><TD>97.5%</TD></TR><TR><TD>Texas</TD><TD>60%</TD></TR><TR><TD>SDSU</TD><TD>97.5%</TD></TR><TR><TD>Iowa</TD><TD>60%</TD></TR><TR><TD>@Penn State</TD><TD>85%</TD></TR><TR><TD>MSU</TD><TD>90%</TD></TR><TR><TD>@Indiana</TD><TD>97.5%</TD></TR><TR><TD>@Minnesota</TD><TD>90%</TD></TR><TR><TD>Illinois</TD><TD>97.5%</TD></TR><TR><TD>Northwestern</TD><TD>97.5%</TD></TR><TR><TD>@Michigan</TD><TD>45%</TD></TR></TABLE>

This gives me surprisingly round numbers:

11-0 Odds: 10%
10-1 Odds: 30%
9-2 Odds: 35%
8-3 Odds: 19%
7-4 Odds: 5%
6-5 Odds: 1%

If we just assume OSU has a 50% chance of winning their bowl, we get:

12-0 Odds: 5%
11-1 Odds: 20%
10-2 Odds: 33%
9-3 Odds: 27%
8-4 Odds: 12%
7-5 Odds: 3%


If you agree more or less with my odds of winning each game and are surprised at how low these odds are of going undefeated, well, that's the price you pay for scheduling a team like Texas. Each powerhouse team you schedule basically halves your chances of going undefeated.
Click to expand...

I really like this breakdown, and it's very similar to something I did in another thread a week or so ago.

Anyways, I agree completely with this type of analysis and I think it speaks volumes for why an NC is so freaking difficult. It also explains why Cooper and Lloyd seem to always lose a couple and end up in the Citrus Bowl! :wink2:

However, I've also got to add that there's one very obvious flaw with your analysis....any guesses?



45%? Come on, that should be more like 99-100%. :banger:
 
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Also consider the later a loss is in the season, the less chances there are of getting into a top tier bowl. Now we're getting a little complicated, but if you can figure out some arbitrary values and plug it into a spreadsheet, you might have something there.
 
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I voted for an 11-1 record this Fall. Like everybody else, I think 12-0 should be attainable. This is the best talent, top to bottom, JT has had since his arrival. Better even than the 14-draft-pick 2002 team he and Coop put together.

But I am haunted by the horrible (bordering on ridiculous) offensive coaching and game-planning of last year. 2004 proved to me that Bollman (and JT) have an obsessive-compulsive streak in their offensive personalities. They repeatedly started players, and called plays, that failed -- over and over again until, out of desperation, they tried different players in new formations late in the season. Everyone has heard the classic definition of insanity: "Doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different outcome." Well, that was tOSU offense much of last season. Fly-dell off-tackle, come hell or high water.

So I'm afraid that, despite all the firepower at his disposal, Bollman will figure out a way to lose at least one game this year -- especially now that he can't count on Nuge to come to the rescue with a 50-yarder late in the game.

Sure hope I'm wrong!
 
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Only Loss Will Be To Texas :)

I am a major donor to the University of Texas Longhorn Foundation. I have 11 University of Texas football tickets.

I am going to the Ohio State/UT football game in Columbus this year.

I'd like to trade two tickets to the game in Austin in 2006 for two relatively equivalent tickets to the game in Columbus. The tickets I'd like to trade are on the 35 yard line at Darrell K. Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium in Austin.

Do you know any Ohio State fans that would like to make that trade with me?

Email me at [email protected] if you do.
 
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10-2

Too many MAJOR games this year with dangerous landmines in between. This team still has questions at boundry corner, punter, running back and kicker (Houston good but unproven). Also, we've heard rumors of a new and improved offensive system with more open playcalling for years and it's never happened. We don't rush the QB well, we have coverage issues with Fox gone and we give up way too much on WR screens and draw plays.

9-3 is a very real possibility with a tough draw in the bowl game.
 
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I went with 10 - 2 record simply because of 2 teams i am concerned about. Iowa seems to have Tressels number. we were fortunate in 2003 with the o/t win and, well the 2004 game in Iowa City, you just knew they would be up for us. If we can hold them at bay at home this year we have a good change of running the table until Ohio State goes up north. That will be the biggest test, regardless of how good our defense will be. The Big Ten is going to be strong again with everybody beating up everybody. You can never tell about Minnesota and what they are going to do. Look at them last year and the same for Purdue. I Think its going to be rough to run the table like we did in 2002. That was truley a season never to be forgotten.
 
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we were fortunate in 2003 with the o/t win and, well the 2004 game in Iowa City, you just knew they would be up for us.
Click to expand...
In 2003, we beat Iowa 19-10 at the 'Shoe and it should have been 19-3, except for a missed holding call on a fake field goal. Unless I am forgetting something, Coach Tressel is 1-1 against Iowa. I don't believe we played Iowa in 2001, I know we didn't in 2002 (which is good, because according to Trev & Mark, they would hvae killed us! :roll2: ), we beat them 19-10 in 2003, and they drilled us 33-7 last year.
 
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