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What NC expectations are realistic?

Yeah, I was gonna say...

2012-2016, you could argue they dropped the ball twice. But since 2017 OSU has won 4 straight outright titles, which I believe is the first time in conference history that's happened. Next year will be closer but OSU should have a great shot to win again.
The 2019 title was the first time a team had won 3 straight outright, so 2020 was definitely the first time for 4 straight outright titles.
 
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In the seven years of the Playoff system, Ohio State has played for a national championship four times (2014, 2016, 2019, 2020), and won once (2014). So competing for a title 4/7 of the time, and winning a title 1/7 of the time.

I expect both of those percentages to improve over the next decade, say competing 8/10, winning 3/10. The head coach and recruiting pipeline are in place for an extended run of greatness.
 
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Alabama is the exception rather than the rule. National championships are a rare treat. Especially when they are unexpected. I don't think it is unreasonable to expect a playoff birth in 3/5 years on average but there is a lot more luck in the equation than most coaches and players would like to admit. Day has proven to be a great recruiter and coach. I am happy with where the program is.
 
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I think that, realistically, if Ohio State can win a championship every 10 years, I'll be happy.
I think if you break any 10-year period down, based on the last 20 years, we can hope/expect to see this:
1-2 national championships,
1-2 losses in championship games (3 total national championship games, with 1-2 wins)
3 more years with losses in first round of playoffs (assuming our current 4-team playoff format)
2 years where the Buckeyes are >right there<. Maybe they lost to Purdue or Iowa or Michigan State or Oklahoma and they're ranked 5-6.
2 years where the luck was with the other guys all year, for who knows what reason. The Buckeyes get 3-4 losses and finish ranked 10-15 or so.
 
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