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What NC expectations are realistic?

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Merih

Merih

GO BUCKS!
    • *apologies if this is retreading old ground - please merge as needed*

    As unsatisfying as the result was this past Monday, by the final whistle I think we all knew that while this was a good OSU team - every now and then you're going to show down with a great team when you make it to that level of competition.

    This lead me to wonder what is a realistic expectation for NC win rate is for the Buckeyes moving forward.

    If I start this "era" at Tressel's hiring, we have 20 seasons worth of football. In that span, we have 2 national championships (10% win rate) and 11 B1G championships (55% win rate).

    If I start this "era" at Urban's hiring, we have 10 seasons worth of football. In that span, we have 1 national championship (10% win rate) and 5 B1G championships (50% win rate).

    It was shocking to me that we haven't technically been more successful in relative terms over the past 10 years vs the past 20 in terms of B1G and NC win rates. Granted I would argue there are more "great" teams in this past 10 years ('14, '15, '19, arguably '20) vs the first 10 years ('02, '05, '06) and more talent overall.

    So that leads me to my question. Looking forward, what expectations do you think we should have for the Buckeyes?

    My answer for whatever its worth. I think with how the program is trending, I think one title every five years is a good expectation (20% win rate) and we should be winning three out of five B1G at least (60% win rate).

    While we were not better than Bama this year, it does sting a bit that we didn't win a title in this 2 year window with Fields. That would've kept us on pace to my mental model at least.

    But who knows - next year all the top teams lose a lot and we may find ourselves right back in position.
     
    I don’t know that this answer is going to satisfy you, but looking back over the past 20 years, I look back fondly. It takes a combination of recruiting, skill, luck and sometimes magic to get the NC. Being in the hunt as often as the program is suggests that recruiting and skill have been taken care of pretty well over that time. Luck and magic (in the case of Bama black magic) are a lot of times out of anyone’s control.

    While only two NCs over that time feels light, being in consideration virtually every year is:
    1) waaaaaay more than all but three or four programs, and
    2) the requirement to get more NCs.

    I guess one could argue that LSU may be a case where they’re not in consideration frequently but has had success when they are in the hunt. Ultimately, I’ll take what we’ve got over what they’ve got eight days a week.

    To directly answer your question, expectation given trajectory, add 1.5 more every 20 years and I think that’s reasonable, if not greedy. Expectation relative to being anyone not tOSU, Bama, Clemson (of late), Okie and a small handful of others? One in a literal lifetime is a tall order. To that end, I find it hard to look at two in 20 and being in the conversation every year — mind you, while owning our primary rival over that time — to be anything but a fantastic run. No, you can’t win ‘em all, but fuck, we’ve had a great time along the way.

    Some people want to chase NCs, others want to stomp tsun. I like ‘em all... but I like stomping tsun and winning in Indy in early December most of all. NCs are great, for sure... but O-H-I-O going around the four corners of Stadium and Main every year for the rest of my life and stomping on the skunk bear throat until they quit the fucking sport is my expectation.
     
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    Wonderful response thanks for taking the time to hammer that out. I 100% agree with you that it’s been a golden 20 years and I’m more than happy to sign up for another 20.

    We’re not far away from each other (1.5 vs 2 incremental) on NC expectation.

    In my mind it’s two things only that currently stop us from achieving it:
    - More at bats: No more dropping trash games against Purdue, Iowa, etc that take us out of the coin flip lottery that is the CFP
    - Consistent at bats: Better coordinator performance in big games / balanced teams in all phases (don’t ask so much of offense or defense)

    With those things we probably get two more at bats in ‘15 and ‘17 and who knows perhaps we convert one.

    sparcboxbuck said:
    I don’t know that this answer is going to satisfy you, but looking back over the past 20 years, I look back fondly. It takes a combination of recruiting, skill, luck and sometimes magic to get the NC. Being in the hunt as often as the program is suggests that recruiting and skill have been taken care of pretty well over that time. Luck and magic (in the case of Bama black magic) are a lot of times out of anyone’s control.

    While only two NCs over that time feels light, being in consideration virtually every year is:
    1) waaaaaay more than all but three or four programs, and
    2) the requirement to get more NCs.

    I guess one could argue that LSU may be a case where they’re not in consideration frequently but has had success when they are in the hunt. Ultimately, I’ll take what we’ve got over what they’ve got eight days a week.

    To directly answer your question, expectation given trajectory, add 1.5 more every 20 years and I think that’s reasonable, if not greedy. Expectation relative to being anyone not tOSU, Bama, Clemson (of late), Okie and a small handful of others? One in a literal lifetime is a tall order. To that end, I find it hard to look at two in 20 and being in the conversation every year — mind you, while owning our primary rival over that time — to be anything but a fantastic run. No, you can’t win ‘em all, but fuck, we’ve had a great time along the way.

    Some people want to chase NCs, others want to stomp tsun. I like ‘em all... but I like stomping tsun and winning in Indy in early December most of all. NCs are great, for sure... but O-H-I-O going around the four corners of Stadium and Main every year for the rest of my life and stomping on the skunk bear throat until they quit the fucking sport is my expectation.
    Click to expand...
     
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    I don't disagree that it would be extraordinarily difficult to match Alabama's recent NC numbers. However, I don't think it's impossible to be the dog out in front of the hunt. Alabama wasn't the program we now know pre-Saban and if it's not careful/lucky, it won't continue to be. When Saban is done, he'll leave the program in good shape, but I could see it dropping off somewhat like Miami and winding up like USC, Georgia or Oklahoma and what I hope happens to Clemson. There's nothing really great about Tuscaloosa. There's nothing that makes it a foregone conclusion that the hegemony will continue. Young 5-stars either don't care about tradition or only care so much and what they consider tradition, we consider recent history. We could be poised to step into a similar 5 to 7 year run if we stay in the top three to five every year with a NC now and again. I think if Day wins one in the next two seasons, and I think that's extremely possible, we'll be solidified as the front dog, at least when Saban leaves or starts to become less effective and, by the way, hiring Bilbo Baggins as your OC to replace a perennial re-tread who happened to have a couple of really good years isn't exactly cutting edge.
     
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    I think 1 NC every 5 years would be amazing. Like you mentioned, though, even in the past 20 years of fantastic success, there's only been two. I think the stuff Bama is doing has skewed all of our expectations. Hope I'm wrong though. With the talent coming in and Day having a pretty good system in place, 2022-2025 could be an even further step up from the where OSU is now.

    The problem with replicating Bama's success isn't just being that good, it's also getting somewhat lucky during their run. In 2009, Colt McCoy got hurt in the...2nd series? In 2011 they shouldn't have gotten into the NC. In 2012 they would've been left out had OSU not self-bowl-banned. In 2017 it's questionable whether they should've gotten in.

    That's not to take away from what they accomplished, but to show the importance of getting as many chances as possible and seeing how things turn out. If OSU got chances in 2015, 2017, and 2018, I think they have another NC.
     
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    1926Buckeyes said:
    The problem with replicating Bama's success isn't just being that good, it's also getting somewhat lucky during their run. In 2009, Colt McCoy got hurt in the...2nd series? In 2011 they shouldn't have gotten into the NC. In 2012 they would've been left out had OSU not self-bowl-banned. In 2017 it's questionable whether they should've gotten in.
    Click to expand...

    Luck/favoritism is the only difference between Saban's run and Bowden's run at Florida State IMO
     
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    We are one of the top 3-4 programs in the country.

    You can make your own luck to some degree in college football by amassing a ton of talent and developing it and coaching well, but injuries are obviously a huge factor and the transfer portal is starting to introduce a bit more parity as it is hard to hold on to 4-star reserves for half or more of their college careers (Mookie gonna ball out somewhere).

    With our level of resources and recruiting, we absolutely should be a threat to win the B1G every season. Occasionally one of the other teams will have the planets align for them or OSU will have that one game where everything goes sideways and it costs them the conference, but all in all I do think our current rate of B1G success is fairly sustainable.

    The CFP is a little different. To get selected, you have to have a top 4 national perception. There is always gonna be a couple programs having miracle seasons, plus the other traditional powers. Let's say that OSU is excelling year after year, you still can't necessarily expect them to get into the CFP every season, even if deserving (the B1G could look weak one season, for instance).

    So let's say that we are getting in the CFP 3 out of every 5; that's still great and the envy of pretty much every other program that isn't Bama or Clemson. Sometimes in your first CFP game you will have the better odds of winning or the other team will, but let's average that out and say 50/50. Then, if the CFP is working right, in the NC game you are either playing the best team in the country or playing the second best. Let's average that out again and say 50/50. So 3 out of 5 years, 1/4 odds of winning it all (now think about how much tougher it is to consistently win it all in college bball with way more parity and a tournament field of 68...).

    Statistically, then, you are looking at, on average, a probability of about 1 NC every 6-7 years. And that's not accounting for any program lulls/rebuilds due to coaching transitions or what have you. Thankfully, OSU has not missed a step in the transition from Urban to Day.

    Now, if OSU can solidify their baseline performance as very high, year in and year out, and achieve total dominance of the B1G... Then maybe we really are looking at making the CFP every year except for perhaps a fluke season where we lose our QB or something. Then we move up to more of an average of a NC every 4-5 years.
     
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