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We are not out yet!! (Okay, now we are....)

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So I took the time to go look at a site I trust for straight up win probabilities.

UF win = 10%
UNC win = 35%

Given the assumption that OSU only needs one of the two events to occur the probability is 41.5%

check my math but that looks right

If someone told me OSU had a 41% shot at playoffs after MSU I would have taken it.
 
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OHIO STATE HOPES FOR CHAOS ON COLLEGE FOOTBALL'S CHAMPIONSHIP WEEKEND, BUT KNOWS ITS POSTSEASON FATE IS OUT OF ITS HAND

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Pat Elflein took a deep breath, dripping in sweat after Ohio State practice Wednesday. The Buckeye right guard — one of 19 players named to All-Big Ten teams — doesn't have a game to prepare for in the immediate future for the first time all season.

Instead, Elflein and the No. 6 Buckeyes are going to be left at home to watch the Big Ten Championship Game Saturday night between Iowa and Michigan State. Left out, left to wonder what could have been and left to question if they're better than the Hawkeyes and Spartans.

"I'm sure it's gonna happen, but all we can do is hope and pray that it all works out for us," Elflein said.

Ohio State is 11-1, pasting arch-rival Michigan, 42-13, in the regular season finale to end its slate of 12 games on a high note. That came one week after a dud in the home finale against the Spartans, where it fell, 17-14. Mark Dantonio's club is No. 5 in the College Football Playoff picture and set to represent the Big Ten East in Indianapolis against the No. 4 Hawkeyes and Big Ten Coach of the Year Kirk Ferentz.

"I hate that we don't control our own destiny right now, because we obviously want to make the Playoff," left tackle Taylor Decker said. "Whether that happens or not, that's out of our control and it's our fault that it's out of our control.

"Because regardless who we play we're going to go win that game."

Entire article: http://www.elevenwarriors.com/ohio-...-footballs-championship-weekend-but-knows-its
 
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So I took the time to go look at a site I trust for straight up win probabilities.

UF win = 10%
UNC win = 35%

Given the assumption that OSU only needs one of the two events to occur the probability is 41.5%

check my math but that looks right

If someone told me OSU had a 41% shot at playoffs after MSU I would have taken it.
Tho probability of either happening is the sum of both UF winning and UNC wining, less the probability of both losing (in order to eliminate overlap). Unless there's a different way to get to the 41.5% I think you need that percentage?

Edit: yes, that looks accurate. That is, of course, stanford and/or NC doesn't get in.
 
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Tho probability of either happening is the sum of both UF winning and UNC wining, less the probability of both losing (in order to eliminate overlap). Unless there's a different way to get to the 41.5% I think you need that percentage?

Edit: yes, that looks accurate. That is, of course, stanford and/or NC doesn't get in.

Does that account for Clemson getting in over us with a loss if Clemson and Bama both lose?
 
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Let's add some more questions to the chaos. What happens if, in the games being played, the star player on the winning team is lost for the playoffs?

Clemson were to win but lose Deshaun Watson...
Bama were to win but lose Derick Henry...
Stanford wins but loses McCaffery...
Even, MSU wins again but Cook is lost for the entire playoff?

Would any of those teams be better than a fully operational death star from Columbus?
 
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Let's add some more questions to the chaos. What happens if, in the games being played, the star player on the winning team is lost for the playoffs?

Clemson were to win but lose Deshaun Watson...
Bama were to win but lose Derick Henry...
Stanford wins but loses McCaffery...
Even, MSU wins again but Cook is lost for the entire playoff?

Would any of those teams be better than a fully operational death star from Columbus?
If any team not named UNC or Stanford wins and loses a key player, I don't think it will have an effect. However if UNC or stanford wins and loses a key player, I think it would. Different being on the bubble and that happening and being firmly in and that happens. Maybe Oklahoma would fall in that area too with UNC and stanford if in practice something happened to their QB.
 
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While we're at it, exactly why would Stanford be better than a one-loss Iowa team that loses the BIG Championship game close and butchered the NW team that beat Stanford?
That's why Stanford won't get in... good point.

UNC won't get in due to two FCS opponents and Stanford won't get in because of two loses (one of which was to a middle of the road big ten team).

If Clemson loses they have to fall below UNC and because of the committee has to either put osu or UNC in the 4th spot. That being the case it'll be osu everytime
 
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Let's add some more questions to the chaos. What happens if, in the games being played, the star player on the winning team is lost for the playoffs?

Even, MSU wins again but Cook is lost for the entire playoff?

Would any of those teams be better than a fully operational death star from Columbus?

MSU did not have Cook when they played Ohio State. Just sayin'. And it was MSU's defense that won the game. Supposed bad play calling and bad weather aside.

That being said I really want MSU to clock Iowa 'cause it just makes the Buckeye's look better regardless of where they end up. And to show you how much I haven't been payin' attention Cook and I attended the same high school which I didn't find out 'til after the B1G championship game two years ago when MSU beat Ohio State. btw, once I found out it made me like him even less!

I digress ...
 
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