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Vegas has Bucks

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HabaneroBuck said:
Hogwash on both accounts.
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Agreed. If the Bucks have the second-best chances of winning BCS, it has to be because of the schedule. I have trouble believing that the "experts" in Vegas, or elsewhere, would say that an 8-4 team with questions about a running game, special teams, and quarterback, is the second-best team in the country.
 
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I put $20 on the Bucks at 15-1 a few weeks ago at the Paris Casino in Vegas, those were the best odds I could find. Most of the casino sportsbook didn't have NCAA football futures (they said it was too early). The books that did have them, OSU mostly opened at 30-1 and was down to 10, 12, or 15-1.


USC did have those crazy 6-5 and 8-5 type odds.
 
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18thAveBuck said:
I put $20 on the Bucks at 15-1 a few weeks ago at the Paris Casino in Vegas, those were the best odds I could find. Most of the casino sportsbook didn't have NCAA football futures (they said it was too early). The books that did have them, OSU mostly opened at 30-1 and was down to 10, 12, or 15-1.


USC did have those crazy 6-5 and 8-5 type odds.
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I'll be out there in less than 2 weeks. I don't gamble a lot, but I'll be sure to throw my $20 down as well!
 
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I am sick and tired of seeing USC at the top of the odds lists, rankings, etc. If that team played in a powerhouse conference, they would not have gone undefeated last year and would not have only lost one game the year before. Look at last season -- they almost lost to Stanford (who ended up 4-7), UCLA (who ended up 6-6) and Oregon State (who ended up 7-5). Sure they beat Cal, but so what? That team's biggest accomplishment of the season was their loss to USC and they showed exactly how overrated they were by getting blasted by a middle of the road Texas Tech team in the Holiday Bowl. Put USC in the Big Ten last season and they would have lost at least two games. The fact that writers are calling them a dynasty is a joke.
 
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buckeyeboy said:
I am sick and tired of seeing USC at the top of the odds lists, rankings, etc. If that team played in a powerhouse conference, they would not have gone undefeated last year and would not have only lost one game the year before. Look at last season -- they almost lost to Stanford (who ended up 4-7), UCLA (who ended up 6-6) and Oregon State (who ended up 7-5). Sure they beat Cal, but so what? That team's biggest accomplishment of the season was their loss to USC and they showed exactly how overrated they were by getting blasted by a middle of the road Texas Tech team in the Holiday Bowl. Put USC in the Big Ten last season and they would have lost at least two games. The fact that writers are calling them a dynasty is a joke.
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I think a USC fan could point out our close losses on the way to the NC in 2002. And the Holiday Bowl has a tradition of good teams not showing up during the game, it happened to Texas the year before.

Believe me, I'm also more than ready to see USC come down a notch or two, and for the media lovefest to end. And they shouldn't be called a dynasty unless they win another NC in the next couple of years.

But Vegas odds follow the money, and half the country would believe that USC is a good bet to go to the Rose Bowl this year, and maybe win it.

The season can't get here soon enough!
 
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The lack of a powerhouse conference gives USC an edge. As Yertle (I believe) pointed out, if you give a team 80% chance to win each game, its chances of winning all 11 games is 8.6%. (See his post, somewhere, for how relevant the 80% thing is, and how you get from 80% to 8.6% - though I think he said 9% - I just carried out a decimal place.) USC, being in a weak conference, may be able to change 5 of those games to 90% chance of winning. That nearly doubles the chances of winning all of the games (15.5%).

I don't know how Vegas comes up with 8-1 odds or 100-3 odds or 4.5-2.9 or whatever. But I'm sure that USC's Pac10 schedule plays a big part in picking USC the favorites to win the BCS, again.

MililaniBuckeye said:
Uh, did you see what they did to Oklahoma?
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Good call, Mili. I guess I should have added to my post that they ARE actually a good team, which plays a very large part in Vegas' picking odds.
 
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MililaniBuckeye said:
Uh, did you see what they did to Oklahoma?
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As much as I hate to say it, I gotta agree with Mili.

USC has the best team in the country right now. They are riding a LONG winning streak, coming into the season as the runaway favorite to repeat as National Champs and set their spot in history as a dynasty. They are SO loaded in fact, that there is no real reason to play any of the games. Just give them the trophy and save us all the time. OSU would never be fast enough to keep up with them. We'd be at best a 14 point dog to them!

I think I've heard this song before! Anyone else?
 
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Zurp said:
The lack of a powerhouse conference gives USC an edge. As Yertle (I believe) pointed out, if you give a team 80% chance to win each game, its chances of winning all 11 games is 8.6%. (See his post, somewhere, for how relevant the 80% thing is, and how you get from 80% to 8.6% - though I think he said 9% - I just carried out a decimal place.) USC, being in a weak conference, may be able to change 5 of those games to 90% chance of winning. That nearly doubles the chances of winning all of the games (15.5%).

I don't know how Vegas comes up with 8-1 odds or 100-3 odds or 4.5-2.9 or whatever. But I'm sure that USC's Pac10 schedule plays a big part in picking USC the favorites to win the BCS, again.


Good call, Mili. I guess I should have added to my post that they ARE actually a good team, which plays a very large part in Vegas' picking odds.
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Vegas sets their odds based upon how they can get the most money. You will often see that a fan favorite, usc, tOSU, dallas cowboys(of the 70's and 90's) or tarheel basketball will lay more points because vegas knows that the public loves to bet favorites. They are confident that they can make money that way. These futures show me one thing. Vegas knows that Texas and Ohio state have huge followings and good teams to back it up. Vegas is banking on the fact that homers will see that their team is "favored" and say screw it ill put a couple hundred on them. The statistical chances of tOSU or UT winnin the MNC are almost certainly less than the vegas odds.
 
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High Lonesome said:
Vegas sets their odds based upon how they can get the most money. You will often see that a fan favorite, usc, tOSU, dallas cowboys(of the 70's and 90's) or tarheel basketball will lay more points because vegas knows that the public loves to bet favorites. They are confident that they can make money that way. These futures show me one thing. Vegas knows that Texas and Ohio state have huge followings and good teams to back it up. Vegas is banking on the fact that homers will see that their team is "favored" and say screw it ill put a couple hundred on them. The statistical chances of tOSU or UT winnin the MNC are almost certainly less than the vegas odds.
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Well said. I'll lay v9-5 that HighLonesome's right about those odds.
 
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MililaniBuckeye said:
Uh, did you see what they did to Oklahoma?
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Yeah, I saw that game, but am I the only one starting to think that OU wasn't really that great the past two seasons? Then again, maybe they just have a knack for losing in the BCS title games (post-Huepel, at least), much like Texas against OU, scUM against us (Tressel era), and us against scUM (Cooper era). My main point, however, is that I have indignant feelings toward USC b/c the only reason they're undefeated and even talking about the possibility of 2.5 NC's in a row is b/c they play in a crummy conference.
 
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buckeyeboy said:
Yeah, I saw that game, but am I the only one starting to think that OU wasn't really that great the past two seasons? Then again, maybe they just have a knack for losing in the BCS title games (post-Huepel, at least), much like Texas against OU, scUM against us (Tressel era), and us against scUM (Cooper era). My main point, however, is that I have indignant feelings toward USC b/c the only reason they're undefeated and even talking about the possibility of 2.5 NC's in a row is b/c they play in a crummy conference.
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Oklahoma has been dominant during the last two regular seasons, but implode in the post-season, so their success in a tough conference proved moot. Conversely USC has been solid when it counts most, dominating Michigan and destroying Oklahoma in BCS bowls, so shakey performances in a mediocre conference fade away.
 
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I might be a little too optimistic but I agree with the odds tOSU should be #2 and we do have a legitimate shot at winning it all this year. Hate to say it though I don't believe that USC is even going to go they will probably be upset by some off the wall team and that is what makes college fooball great.
 
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