Domers need to win 2 of 3 against Utah, Army, and USC to go bowling.
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- Thread starter BB73
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I'm growing worried about myself.
This season aside from the Miami and Wisconsin games, i've woke up on Saturdays with more interest in watching ND lose, Rich Rods freak show, and the Mad Hatters antics; then I have in watching Ohio State.
I hope I snap out of this funk where I get excited at watching other teams lose, more then I do my own team win since we're entering the more exciting part of the schedule.
This season aside from the Miami and Wisconsin games, i've woke up on Saturdays with more interest in watching ND lose, Rich Rods freak show, and the Mad Hatters antics; then I have in watching Ohio State.
I hope I snap out of this funk where I get excited at watching other teams lose, more then I do my own team win since we're entering the more exciting part of the schedule.
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ulukinatme
Old Skool
Vegas is going easy here considering ND's injuries, Utah coming in pissed off after TCU, and the fact that ND is fully in their November downward spiral at this point. I'll be in the stands watching this beat down, unfortunately
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For those who don't know, Notre Dame will be without starting QB Dayne Crist, starting RB Armando Allen, starting TE Kyle Rudolph and starting NG Ian Williams, and slot receiver Theo Riddick. They will be starting true freshman Tommy Rees at QB.
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In all seriousness watch out here.
A top 10 team (fwiw) is playing a bad ND team that is decimated by injuries, nearly 75% of the action is on Utah but the line opened at 6 in some places, 5.5 in others and hasn't budged or has recently dropped to 5. That isn't a full blown line reversal but it still doesn't pass the logic test.
If you are going to bet it, be careful. I know ND is fucking horrible but Vegas is fully aware of that, the injuries and a million other things we don't know. They don't give gifts and Utah minus anything less than a TD seems like a gift.
A top 10 team (fwiw) is playing a bad ND team that is decimated by injuries, nearly 75% of the action is on Utah but the line opened at 6 in some places, 5.5 in others and hasn't budged or has recently dropped to 5. That isn't a full blown line reversal but it still doesn't pass the logic test.
If you are going to bet it, be careful. I know ND is fucking horrible but Vegas is fully aware of that, the injuries and a million other things we don't know. They don't give gifts and Utah minus anything less than a TD seems like a gift.
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jlb1705;1809840; said:
I'm counting on Rees, instead of the FG kicker that's made 18 straight.
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Jake
Once a Buckeye, always a Buckeye
‘17 The Deuce Champ
Fantasy Baseball Champ
'18 The Deuce Champ
Jaxbuck;1809856; said:
That makes no sense. If 75% of the money was going on Utah the line would move up, not down. Vegas isn't interested in having over 80% of the money on either team, because that's risky. Casinos aren't interested in risk. They're interested in bettors taking the risk.
If the line is dropping it is because money is going on ND, which is not uncommon. Teams with large fan bases will tend to draw emotional bets that move their lines down. ND is 102-117 versus the spread since 1993, despite being 137-87 straight up, for this reason.
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Jake;1809859; said:
Which should make one at least wonder why they are willing to take so much action on Utah without adjusting the line. It should make one really wonder why the line went from 5.5 to 5 at the Hilton and from 6 to 5.5 at the Mirage.
Utah might just beat the shit out of them (hopefully) but I'd be vcautious.
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Jake;1809861; said:
Casinos are more than willing to take lopsided action if they think they are on the right side of it. They bet like sharps. They diversify the risk by having such a large portfolio of games every day.
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Jake
Once a Buckeye, always a Buckeye
‘17 The Deuce Champ
Fantasy Baseball Champ
'18 The Deuce Champ
Jaxbuck;1809866; said:
They don't make their living by taking risks. They make their money by guaranteeing they win no matter who wins the game.
I don't know what is going to happen today but I do know trends are trends for a reason:
ND overall since 1993: 137-87 (.612)
ND ATS since 1993: 102-117 (.466)
ND tends to give too many points when favored and receive too few points when dogs. That's courtesy of the Subway Alumni.
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Jake;1809870; said:
They make their money by striving to make every bet a negative EV for us and a positive EV for them. They cannot achieve perfect balanced action on every game nor do they make it their first priority.
I don't know what is going to happen today either but watching for reverse line movement (ex goes down when it should be going up) is one of the best ways to spot a chance to be on the right side of it when Vegas is inviting lopsided action.
You are right that ND is a glamor team/gets a lot of fan money and their lines are usually adjusted for that but today there is 74% of the action on Utah. The line hasn't gone up and in some cases it has gone down. Like you said, it makes no sense but yet that's what is happening. What explanation is there other than Vegas being content to let the public pound Utah? Then if they are content to let the public load up on Utah you have to ask yourself what that means. It tells me they feel pretty confident in ND (or whoever) covering that number.
Trust me, this happens A LOT if you look for it. It doesn't mean they are right 100% of the time but they wouldn't do it if they weren't right more than they were wrong.
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